Uzbekistan continues to strengthen its position as one of the most active hubs of cooperation between Central and South Asia. Changes in the global trade architecture, the restructuring of supply chains, and the growing importance of regional markets are increasing the significance of the South Asian direction.

South Asia, home to one of the world's largest consumer markets, substantial industrial potential, and rapidly expanding investment activity, is emerging as one of the key centers of the global economy.

Against this backdrop, Uzbekistan’s cooperation with South Asian countries is increasingly taking on a practical economic dimension. This involves the creation of sustainable mechanisms for trade, investment, and institutional cooperation capable of generating new growth opportunities for the entire region. Afghanistan occupies a special place in this process, serving as a bridge between Central and South Asia.

A practical manifestation of this transformation was the first interregional forum, the Termez Dialogue, held in May 2025 at the International Trade Center “Termez.” The forum became one of the most significant steps in implementing Uzbekistan’s initiative to strengthen connectivity between Central and South Asia, previously enshrined in a dedicated UNGA Resolution.

Discussions focused on trade and economic cooperation, investment, energy, food security, climate resilience, and Afghanistan’s integration into regional processes. The forum’s particular significance lay in its effort to establish a long-term platform for cooperation based on economic interdependence, openness, and shared development.

The decision to hold the Termez Dialogue on a regular basis effectively laid the groundwork for institutionalizing a new format of cooperation, with Termez emerging as one of the new geoeconomic platforms for engagement with South Asian countries.

Uzbekistan’s Trade with South Asia

Today, Uzbekistan is among the most active countries in the region in expanding trade, economic, and investment cooperation with South Asia.

The strengthening of interregional connectivity has been accompanied by growth in trade turnover, investment interaction, and business activity, reflecting a transition from limited cross-border cooperation to a broader model of economic integration.

Over the past 9 years (2016–2025), trade between Uzbekistan and South Asian countries increased 3.2 times, reaching $3.5 bn. Uzbekistan’s exports to the region tripled to $2 bn, while imports increased 4.1 times to $1.5 bn.

The main categories of Uzbekistan’s exports to South Asia include food products worth $976.4 mn (48.1%), mineral oils – $368 mn (18.1%), transport services – $277.8 mn (13.7%), industrial goods – $140.5 mn (6.9%), and chemical products – $134.9 mn (6.6%).

The main import categories from South Asian countries include chemical products worth $477.6 mn (32.2%), food products – $391.4 mn (26.4%), machinery and equipment – $309.1 mn (20.8%), other products – $99 mn (6.7%), and finished products – $67 mn (4.5%).

In 2025, the largest share of trade with South Asia was accounted for by Afghanistan. The predominance of Uzbek exports made Afghanistan a highly beneficial trade and economic partner, ranking first among South Asian countries in terms of Uzbekistan’s trade turnover, which reached $1.7 bn, or 47.7% of total trade with the region.

Food exports to Afghanistan amounted to $712.7 mn, while Afghanistan accounted for 75.5% of Uzbekistan’s food exports to South Asia.

Trade and economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and India has also expanded significantly in recent years. India ranked second among South Asian trading partners, with bilateral trade reaching $1.3 bn in 2025 (37.5% of total trade with the region).

India ranked second among Uzbekistan’s South Asian trading partners, with bilateral trade reaching $1.3 bn in 2025, accounting for 37.5% of Uzbekistan’s total trade with the region.

Pakistan ranked third, with trade turnover amounting to $445.9 mn, or 12.7% of Uzbekistan’s total trade with South Asia. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s exports to Pakistan consisted of food products worth $260.2 mn, industrial goods worth $21.2 mn, services worth $30.1 mn, and non-food raw materials worth $13.2 mn.

Imports from Pakistan in 2025 included food products worth $56.2 mn, chemical products worth $45.3 mn, industrial goods worth $6.4 mn, and various finished products worth $5.2 mn.

Over the past 9 years, the volume of foreign direct investment and loans attracted from South Asian countries to Uzbekistan totaled $1.3 bn, including $510 mn in 2025 alone. The largest contributions came from India ($586.7 mn) and Afghanistan ($519.2 mn).

Termez as a Hub of Interregional Connectivity

Termez occupies a special place in the development of Uzbekistan’s cooperation with South Asian countries. Located at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, the city serves as a trade, investment, and humanitarian hub connecting the two regions.

Historically, Termez played an important role in the system of interregional relations, situated at the intersection of the largest trade and civilizational spaces of Eurasia. Owing to its strategic geographic location, Termez linked India, Afghanistan, and Central Asia as early as ancient times, while during the Timurid era it was one of the region’s prominent administrative, commercial, and scientific centers.

The city’s current stage of development reflects the gradual restoration of this historical role under new geoeconomic conditions.

Since 2016, the Termez Cargo Center international logistics hub has been operating in the city, strategically located at the intersection of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. In recent years, it has become one of the largest channels for delivering humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan through the mechanisms of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

An additional impetus to regional development came with the opening of the Airitom International Trade Center in 2024, located in close proximity to the Afghan border. Today, the center is gradually evolving not only into a trading platform but also into a comprehensive geoeconomic hub bringing together logistics, business, educational, and humanitarian initiatives.

The center hosts a free trade zone with simplified business conditions for companies from South Asian countries. A visa-free regime has been introduced, transactions in foreign currencies are permitted, and entrepreneurs from Afghanistan and Pakistan have been granted the opportunity to conduct business within the complex. At the same time, social infrastructure, including educational and healthcare facilities, continues to develop.

At present, the Airitom International Trade Center covers 36 hectares, includes more than 3,000 retail outlets, and provides approximately 5,500 jobs. Since its opening, the center has been visited by more than 440,000 people, while annual exports have reached $1.2 bn.

Termez is also home to an educational institution for Afghan citizens, and a workforce development system is being expanded to support growing interregional cooperation.

In practice, Termez is becoming one of the key centers of economic interaction between Central and South Asia. The development of trade infrastructure, logistics, humanitarian projects, and business activity is strengthening economic ties between the two regions and enhancing Uzbekistan’s role in promoting interregional cooperation.

Against this backdrop, the Termez Dialogue is gaining importance as a permanent platform for aligning the long-term interests of the countries of Central and South Asia. The upcoming forum creates opportunities for advancing joint initiatives in trade, investment, food security, water resources, and sustainable development.

At the same time, the regular format of the Dialogue contributes to the development of a more sustainable model of interregional engagement based on pragmatic cooperation, economic interdependence, and the expansion of practical cooperation mechanisms between the two regions.

A New Economic Architecture of Connectivity

The significance of the Termez Dialogue extends beyond the framework of a traditional international forum. It reflects a broader transformation taking place across Eurasia, where regional connectivity, resilient supply chains, and economic cooperation are becoming increasingly important drivers of growth and stability.

For Uzbekistan, strengthening ties with South Asia represents not only an opportunity to diversify trade and investment flows but also a strategic instrument for enhancing the country’s role as a bridge between major regional markets.

The growing interconnectedness of Central and South Asia creates new opportunities for expanding trade routes, attracting investment, developing transport and logistics infrastructure, and strengthening cooperation in energy, agriculture, education, and human capital development.

Afghanistan occupies a central place within this emerging framework. Its integration into regional economic processes has the potential to transform it from a source of geopolitical uncertainty into an important transit, trade, and economic partner linking the two regions.

The development of practical cooperation mechanisms through platforms such as the Termez Dialogue may therefore contribute not only to economic growth but also to greater regional stability and long-term prosperity.

Through initiatives aimed at strengthening interregional connectivity, Uzbekistan is consistently promoting a vision of cooperation based on openness, mutual benefit, and shared development.

The experience of recent years demonstrates that expanding economic ties between Central and South Asia is no longer merely a political aspiration but an increasingly tangible economic reality supported by growing trade, rising investment flows, and expanding business engagement.

The institutionalization of the Termez Dialogue provides an important mechanism for sustaining this momentum. By bringing together governments, businesses, international organizations, and experts, the forum creates conditions for identifying common interests and developing coordinated approaches to regional challenges.

The continued development of trade infrastructure, logistics corridors, investment cooperation, and humanitarian initiatives centered around Termez further strengthens the city’s role as a gateway between Central and South Asia.

In this regard, the Termez Dialogue is evolving into a long-term platform for shaping a new model of regional cooperation – one based not on competition but on economic complementarity, interdependence, and shared prosperity.

As connectivity between the two regions deepens, Termez is increasingly positioned not only as a geographical crossroads but also as a strategic center of economic interaction capable of facilitating sustainable development across a vast part of Eurasia.

Ziyoda Rizaeva,
Center for Economic Research and Reforms

Since ancient times, Central and South Asia have been closely connected through trade, cultural exchange and political processes. Geographical proximity and ancient trade routes contributed to active dialogue between peoples and civilizations, the exchange of goods and culture as well as the formation of a shared historical and cultural identity in the region. Following the acquisition of independence, the Central Asian states began gradually developing their own foreign policy and economic strategies toward South Asia.

Given the significance of Central and South Asia, shaped by their strategic location, abundant natural resources, demographic potential and historical heritage, these regions have become the subject of extensive scientific research. Thus, from the perspective of the regional security complex, scholars consider Central and South Asia as two independent yet equal regions. In this context, it is important to emphasize the transformation of Afghanistan’s role as a key component of the regional security complex, facilitating interconnectedness and the gradual rapprochement between South and Central Asia.

It should be noted that Uzbekistan, located in the heart of Central Asia, plays a key role in ensuring regional security and stability. At the same time, the country, actively promoting constructive foreign policy initiatives aimed at strengthening peace and cooperation in the region, acts as the locomotive of economic interconnectedness between Central and South Asia. Recognizing the growing demand for mutual ties between the regions, in July 2021 in Tashkent a high-level international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities” was held. There the proposal to develop and submit for consideration to the UN General Assembly a draft special resolution “On Strengthening the Connectivity between Central and South Asia” was put forward. As a result, in July 2022, the UN member states unanimously approved the adoption of this resolution, which became another vivid testament to the recognition of our country’s role and authority in deepening interconnectedness, establishing dialogue with the region and maintaining peace and stability.

It should be emphasized that the resolution calls on states to unite their efforts in combating common challenges and threats to stability and security in Central and South Asia, recommends continuing and deepening interregional cooperation by expanding transport infrastructure and information-communication technologies, as well as by developing new international transport corridors that provide convenient, sustainable, commercially viable, affordable, accessible, inclusive and safe routes to seaports.

In these processes, Termez has the potential to become a unique platform for connecting the two regions, both in terms of ensuring regional security and in terms of developing trade and economic relations. At the same time, the city of Termez, historically considered as one of the centers of dialogue between peoples and civilizations, the development of trade, humanitarian, and other ties, for many centuries occupied a strategically important position in the region. Thus, the era of the Kushan Empire, Termez served as a major cultural center where various civilizations actively interacted. The city was a significant hub for the transmission of Buddhist art and literature, which spread widely across Central and South Asia. Moreover, from a geographical point of view, Termez was a link between Central and South Asia. It was also one of the key points on the Great Silk Road connecting East and West.

At the present stage, Termez serves as a starting point for the implementation of a number of transport and infrastructure projects, such as the “Termez – Naibabad – Maydan Shahr – Logar – Kharlachi” railway, the “Surkhan – Puli-Khumri” power lines, and others. In general, the significance of the Termez platform lies in the following:

Firstly, in the context of ensuring regional security and stability, the city of Termez has consistently held a central position. Following the events of 11/9/2001 the “Termez Strategic Air Transport Point” was established here, which operated from 2002 to 2015 and ensured the logistics of humanitarian cargo for the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. This experience further reinforced the city’s significance as a secure transit and supply hub during times of military instability.

In addition, Termez is actively used within the framework of Uzbekistan’s joint initiatives with international partners in combating terrorism, drug trafficking, and cross-border crime. In this context, the “Friendship Bridge” connecting Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, plays an important role in ensuring control not only over the movement of people and cargo, but also in monitoring the illegal trafficking of drugs (including synthetic drugs) coming from Afghanistan, which is important for maintaining regional security (for example, employees of the “Ayritom” border customs post in Surkhandarya region in March of this year prevented an attempt to illegally import a batch of narcotic drugs with a total weight of 70 kg and in May of this year – 600 kg).

At the same time, Termez is considered a platform for constructive resolution of border issues. Thus, on August 22-28, 2024, a regular meeting of the working groups of the joint Uzbek-Tajik demarcation Commission was held in Termez. During the meeting, joint work continued on coordinating the passage of the design demarcation line of the Uzbek-Tajik state border, following which a corresponding protocol was signed.

Secondly, the trade, economic, and logistical significance of the city of Termez, as a material foundation for long-term peace and security in Central and South Asia, is determined by its strategic location and modern logistical infrastructure.

In particular, in 2022, “The Termez Cargo Center terminal” received the status of an international multifunctional logistics hub serving cargo flows to Afghanistan and South Asian countries. This, in turn, has elevated its status in international humanitarian infrastructure (from 2025 it has been integrated into the UN High Commissioner for Humanitarian Affairs warehouse network) and contributed to the expansion of humanitarian shipments’ geography (in 2022 humanitarian aid was delivered by air from Termez to flood victims in Pakistan, and in 2023, the UNHCR Regional Humanitarian Logistics Center in Termez sent 12 truckloads of over 48,000 blankets to Afghanistan). It is noteworthy that Termez’s infrastructure is being actively utilized by international organizations to deliver food and medicine to South Asia, which contributes to reducing social tension and preventing the escalation of conflicts caused by humanitarian crises.

Furthermore, the opening of the Termez International Trade Center in August 2024, designed to create a favorable business environment and logistics, simplify administrative procedures and create conditions for entrepreneurs, on the one hand, enhances the city’s economic attractiveness and, on the other hand, stimulates the growth of economic cooperation between Central and South Asia. In this context, it should be noted that on the territory of the Center (37 hectares, 500 meters from the border with Afghanistan), where 3 thousand retail outlets are located, a 15-day visa-free regime has been introduced for visitors.

In this regard, Termez is also considered a suitable platform for conducting bilateral economic relations. Thus, in March and April of 2024 year, representatives of the Afghan delegation, headed by the Minister of Trade N. Azizi and business circles of the Balkh province, visited the city of Termez, where they held a meeting with the Uzbek side to develop bilateral trade and economic cooperation and expand cooperation in such sectors as agriculture, textiles, pharmaceuticals, food, and mining.

Thirdly, the cultural and humanitarian potential of Termez is considered to be of considerable importance. Thus, in 2018, at the initiative of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, an educational center for Afghan citizens was created. This educational institution is the only one in the world that provides training exclusively for Afghans in 17 areas of higher and 16 areas of secondary specialized, vocational education. During his functioning, about 700 Afghan citizens underwent training, meanwhile 200 of them are girls.

The institution actively maintains international relations and cooperation with donor countries and foreign organizations such as UNDP, EU, GFR, Slovakia, India. Thus, in January 2023, the “EU Knowledge Center” was opened on the basis of this educational institution to train and educate Afghan citizens (this is a coworking space that provides a platform for joint work, self-learning, and establishing professional connections). Overall, the establishment of an educational center for Afghanistan in Termez will expand access to quality education for Afghan citizens, as well as provide an educational environment and technologies for vocational training.

Therefore, Central and South Asia, dynamically developing regions with stable economic growth and new development opportunities, have significant potential due to their rich resources, economic complementarity, demographic potential, common tasks, and geographical proximity. At the same time, Uzbekistan’s efforts are aimed at integrating the two regions within a single space of cooperation, security, and sustainable development.

In these processes, the “Termez platform” not only serves as a constructive mechanism for ensuring security and stability in Central and South Asia, but also has the potential to become an additional tool for developing trade, economic and transport links between the regions. At the same time, a promising area of cooperation for both regions is considered to be, first of all, security issues, including the fight against terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking, as well as the development of interaction in the fields of transport, tourism, and education.

Gulamov Asliddin Gapparovich,

Researcher at the Higher School of Strategic Analysis and Prognosis of the Republic of Uzbekistan

For decades, Afghanistan was perceived primarily as a source of instability, geopolitical rivalry and security threats. In recent years, however, the regional agenda surrounding Afghanistan has gradually been shifting. Increasingly, expert and diplomatic circles in the Central Asian states are discussing not only the question of security but also Afghanistan’s potential as a transport, energy and trade corridor capable of linking Central and South Asia.

In this context, the «Termez Dialogue»^[1] acquires particular significance as a platform symbolizing the transition from a policy of isolation to a pragmatic model of regional interaction. For Uzbekistan and its neighbors, the issue is no longer merely the stabilization of Afghanistan, but the formation of a new geoeconomic architecture for Eurasia.

From a Geopolitical Buffer to a Geoeconomic Bridge

Historically, Afghanistan lay at the crossroads of major trade routes connecting the East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, however, the country became a space of geopolitical confrontation among world powers rather than a territory of cooperation.

Today the situation is gradually changing under the influence of several factors at once. Firstly, global logistics is undergoing a profound transformation. Geopolitical tension, sanctions restrictions and crises affecting traditional transport routes are forcing states to seek new paths for trade and transit. Secondly, the Central Asian states are increasingly striving to diversify their foreign economic ties and reduce their dependence on a limited number of transport directions.

Against this backdrop, Afghanistan is acquiring new significance as the shortest overland route capable of providing the Central Asian states with access to the ports of the Indian Ocean through the territory of Pakistan.        Whereas the Afghan factor was once viewed primarily through the lens of threats, today growing attention is being paid to its transit potential.

Of particular importance in this regard is the project of the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor^[2]. Initially, the principal route was considered to be Termez – Mazar-i-Sharif – Kabul – Peshawar. However, by 2025 the states of the region moved^[3] to elaborating a new direction: Termez – Naibabad – Maidan Shahr – Logar – Kharlachi. This route implies access to the Pakistani railway network through the Kharlachi border crossing and is regarded as more realistic in terms of security, cost, and implementation timelines.

The realization of this project could substantially reshape^[4] the transport geography of the region. For the Central Asian states, this would mean: a reduction in cargo delivery times; a decrease in transport costs; access to the new markets of South Asia; an expansion of export opportunities; a strengthening of the region’s transit potential.

Especially important is the fact that this concerns access to the South Asian market, with a population of nearly two billion people. For the export-oriented economies of Central Asia, this opens up fundamentally new prospects.

Equally important are the energy projects passing through Afghanistan. Among them are CASA-1000 and the TAPI gas pipeline, both intended to facilitate electricity and natural gas supplies between Central and South Asia.

These processes reflect a broader transformation of regional politics: states increasingly view Afghanistan not only as a source of risk but also as an important element of the transport architecture of Eurasia. Priority is shifting more and more from politically symbolic objectives toward the pragmatic logic of transit, connectivity, and economic efficiency.

Termez — the Southern Gateway of Central Asia

A special role in shaping the new regional interaction is played by Termez - the southernmost city of Uzbekistan, which is gradually turning into an important logistical, diplomatic, and humanitarian center. Its significance is reinforced by its unique geographical position: the city lies in the immediate proximity of the Afghan border, connected to it by a bridge across the Amudarya river, across which hundreds of cargo trucks and substantial flows of humanitarian aid and commercial goods pass daily^[5].

In logistical terms, Termez relies on developed infrastructure, including an international transport and logistics hub and a rail connection with the Afghan city of Hairatan, through which millions of tons of cargo are transshipped each year. This corridor is considered one of the most stable and manageable routes of regional trade with Afghanistan.

An additional dimension of Termez’s role is formed by its humanitarian component: the city operates^[6] as a platform for coordinating international assistance to Afghanistan, where deliveries of food, medicine, and basic goods are regularly carried out with the participation of international organizations. In 2025, the hub was incorporated into the UNHCR Global Supply Network, through which humanitarian aid shipments worth more than $500 million are distributed annually^[7].

At the same time, through Termez, Uzbekistan is actively promoting the concept of regional connectivity, in which Afghanistan is viewed not as a peripheral zone of instability but as a transit bridge capable of linking the markets of Central and South Asia. In this context, Termez is becoming not merely a border town, but an infrastructural and politico-economic node of a new regional architecture founded on pragmatism, trade interdependence, and phased integration.

In this context, Uzbekistan has attempted to institutionalize this Forum. Thus, in 2025 the international forum “Termez Dialogue” was held in Termez, devoted to questions of peace, stability, and economic interaction with Afghanistan. It was attended by representatives of the Central and South Asian states, as well as international organizations, including UN structures. The forum became one of the first attempts to institutionalize the discussion of Afghanistan precisely as an economic partner of the region.

Earlier, in 2021, Uzbekistan initiated^[8] the international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities,” held in Tashkent. One of the central themes of the event was the role of Afghanistan as a transit link between the two macro-regions. The conference was attended by representatives of more than 40 states and international organizations, which underscored the global interest in the Uzbek initiative.

The Termez Dialogue as a New Model of Regionalism

Under present-day conditions, the “Termez Dialogue” acquires significance not only as a diplomatic platform but also as a symbol of a new model of regional interaction.

What is at issue is the formation of an approach in which the states of the region strive to build mechanisms of cooperation independently, proceeding above all from common economic interests and mutual infrastructural interdependence.

In this sense, Afghanistan is gradually becoming not an object of external administration but a potential participant in a new system of regional connectivity.

For Central Asia, the development of the southern direction means an expansion of strategic autonomy, a diversification of foreign economic routes, and a strengthening of its own agency in international relations.

It is precisely for this reason that the future of Afghanistan is increasingly viewed not only as a question of security but also as a question of regional integration, logistics and geoeconomics.

Conclusion

Today Afghanistan stands at a historical crossroads. The country may either remain a space of chronic instability or gradually be transformed into a vital transport and economic bridge between Central and South Asia.

To a large extent, the outcome will depend on the ability of the regional states to construct a long-term strategy of cooperation founded not only on questions of security but also on the development of infrastructure, trade, and mutual economic interest.

In this process, Termez is already becoming one of the key centers of the new Eurasian interaction - a space in which the transition from geopolitical rivalry to geoeconomic partnership is taking shape.

Aziza Mukhammedova

Research Fellow

Center for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies at the

Institute for Advanced International Studies

[1]  https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/21/central-asian-countries-push-for-regional-development-at-termez-dialogue

[2] https://pakistan.mfa.uz/ru/news/trans-afghan-corridor-a-new-bridge-connecting-central-asia-with-the-world-1

[3] https://kun.uz/en/news/2025/07/18/uzbekistan-afghanistan-and-pakistan-agree-to-develop-new-railway-corridor

[4] https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/uzbekistan-and-the-new-realities-of-trans-afghan-trade/

[5] https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-offers-to-act-as-hub-for-afghanistan-aid

[6] https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/uzbekistan-steps-support-neighbor-afghanistan-critical-humanitarian-juncture

[7] https://iica.uz/ru/news/2025/02/13/termiz-logistik-habi-bmtning-global-yetkazib-berish-tarmogiga-qoshildi

[8] https://www.uzembassy.uk/news/990

On 4-6 June, Tashkent will host the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia under the theme: “Peace, Connectivity, and Resilience: Shaping the Foundation for Shared Prosperity”.

Established in 2025 as a permanent international platform, the Termez Dialogue is intended to facilitate the practical advancement of the initiative put forward by the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, aimed at strengthening interconnectivity between Central and South Asia. This initiative has received broad international support and was enshrined in a special resolution adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 11 July 2022.

The current meeting is organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the Head of our State and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan in partnership with the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA).

The forum will bring together more than 150 representatives of political, business, and expert communities, as well as international and regional organizations from Central and South Asia, Europe, the CIS, the South Caucasus, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and the Americas. This underscores the inclusive and open nature of the Termez Dialogue as a comprehensive international platform for developing joint approaches to strengthening connectivity, trust, and sustainable development across the Eurasian space.

Partners and participants of the Dialogue include the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), as well as leading think tanks, research institutions, and peacebuilding organizations, including the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), the Center for Progressive Reforms, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the Berghof Foundation, PeaceNexus, Search for Common Ground, Georgetown University, and other organizations.

The forum programme includes a high-level plenary session on the theme: “Political Dialogue and Economic Connectivity as Pillars of Sustainable Development in the CICA Region”, as well as two special thematic sessions dedicated to joint climate change adaptation and environmental sustainability, and to deepening cultural and humanitarian cooperation.

The event will also feature expert and academic discussions, as well as side events devoted to regional security, expanding engagement with Afghanistan, including the development of the Afghanistan–Uzbekistan–Pakistan dialogue, strengthening transport and logistics connectivity, fostering regional trust, and advancing a common sustainable development agenda. Particular attention will be paid to issues of Central Asian regional identity, as well as to expanding youth cooperation in the fields of peacebuilding and sustainable development.

The forum programme also envisages off-site sessions. Participants of the Dialogue are scheduled to visit Termez, where they will have an opportunity to familiarize themselves with the modern trade, economic, and logistics infrastructure supporting cooperation with South Asian countries, including the operations of the Airitom International Trade Center and the international logistics hub Termez Cargo Center, as well as experience the rich cultural and historical heritage of the ancient city.

The third day of the Dialogue will take place in Samarkand, where delegates will explore the unique civilizational heritage of the Samarkand Renaissance, which historically served as a bridge between East and West, North and South.

The meeting is expected to conclude with the adoption of a Communiqué intended to reaffirm the commitment to strengthening trust, advancing constructive cooperation, and promoting sustainable connectivity between Central and South Asia.

Dunyo IA

In the modern history of New Uzbekistan, protecting the rights, freedoms, and legitimate interests of its citizens – wherever in the world they may be – has become not merely a constitutional obligation, but the highest expression of the state's humanity and responsibility. One of the most challenging yet strategically significant tests of this commitment has been the repatriation of compatriots from conflict zones in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan was among the first countries in the world to shift from a policy of "estrangement" to one of "return and compassion," developing a distinctive rehabilitation model in the process.

The first such humanitarian operation was launched exactly seven years ago – on May 30, 2019 – on the personal directive of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. During that mission, 156 Uzbek nationals – predominantly women and children – were brought home from war-ravaged Syria. It was a defining moment: for the first time, the state openly declared its readiness to embrace citizens who had gone astray.

That operation marked the beginning of a series of missions conducted under the collective name "Mehr" (meaning compassion in Uzbek). The core philosophy behind President Mirziyoyev's initiative is that Uzbek citizens who found themselves in conflict zones through misguided choices retain the right to state protection and the opportunity for a new life.

Each mission was unique in its logistics, risk profile, and the circumstances of those being brought home. The second operation, Mehr-2, carried out in October 2019, was notable for the evacuation of 64 children from Baghdad, Iraq – children whose mothers remained imprisoned abroad and for whom Uzbekistan assumed full guardianship.

In December 2020, despite the sweeping restrictions of the global pandemic, Mehr-3 rescued 98 women and children from the Al-Hol and Roj camps in Syria, where they had been living in dire sanitary conditions. Many of the children bore shrapnel wounds and suffered from serious chronic illnesses. The operation was conducted with technical support from the United States and international organizations.

Mehr-4, carried out in February 2021, focused on Afghanistan, securing the return of 24 citizens caught in the crossfire of that country's protracted war.

The final stage, Mehr-5, was completed in April 2021, bringing home 92 individuals from Syria – 24 women and 68 children, including 7 who were complete orphans. This operation also refined a rapid documentation protocol: birth certificates were issued to children directly at the airport, ensuring they received immediate legal status upon arrival.

In total, the Mehr operations have repatriated more than 530 individuals, approximately 75% of whom are children. The guiding principle throughout has been unequivocal: children cannot be held responsible for the choices of their parents.

Repatriation is far more than a logistical exercise – it is the complex process of transforming yesterday's outcasts into full members of society. The Uzbek model rests on five pillars:

1. Legal Restoration. One hundred percent of repatriates have been provided with official documentation. Every child born in a conflict zone has received a Republic of Uzbekistan birth certificate, granting access to healthcare and education.
2. Economic Empowerment. The state has ensured that no one is left to face hardship alone. Through subsidized credit schemes and vocational training programs, women have found employment and established small businesses within their local communities, achieving economic independence. Repatriates also receive assistance in recovering housing rights lost during their absence, or are provided with subsidized rental accommodation.
3. Inclusive Education. Repatriated children attend mainstream schools – not segregated facilities – and participate in academic competitions and sporting events alongside their peers. To date, approximately 10 repatriates, including women, are enrolled in higher education institutions, and 9 children have become winners or prize-winners in national and regional academic olympiads.
4. Spiritual Guidance. Representatives of the Committee on Religious Affairs, alongside respected theologians and imams of the Muslim Board of Uzbekistan, conduct preventive counseling sessions, introducing repatriates to the tenets of traditional Hanafi Islam as a counter-narrative to extremist interpretations. More than 90% of returnees have successfully adapted and lead secular lives.
5. Community Engagement Through the Mahalla. Neighbors and community activists within the mahalla (traditional neighborhood institution) play an essential role in helping families reintegrate, preventing stigmatization, and fostering an atmosphere of genuine support. Each family is assigned an experienced mahalla mentor who assists with everyday challenges and monitors the family's wellbeing.

The outcomes of Uzbekistan's repatriation program are recognized by the international community as one of the most successful humanitarian models in the world. The United Nations has officially recommended the "Uzbek model" as a roadmap for other governments. Former UN Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov has repeatedly highlighted it as an example of how a state can effectively combine justice with compassion.

Rehabilitation and reintegration initiatives have also been advanced at the regional level. At the high-level international conference "Regional Cooperation of Central Asian Countries within the Framework of the Joint Plan of Action for the Implementation of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy," held in Tashkent on March 3–4, 2022, President Mirziyoyev proposed the establishment, under the auspices of the UN Counter-Terrorism Office, of a Regional Expert Council comprising leading specialists from Central Asian countries.

The Council was launched in May 2024, embodying broad support for the collaborative implementation of comprehensive rehabilitation and reintegration programs for individuals returned from conflict zones. It comprises more than 40 highly qualified experts from across Central Asia, including representatives of law enforcement and judicial bodies, as well as psychologists, theologians, medical professionals, and social workers.

The project has gained further credibility through the participation of prominent international bodies, including the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF), and the International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law (IIJ).

The Council's work has been presented at key UN platforms: in Geneva and New York on November 11 and December 10, 2024, respectively, and in Vienna on May 21, 2025.

Uzbekistan has demonstrated to the international community that repatriation is not a security risk – it is an instrument for strengthening security. International organizations are investing in Uzbekistan today not to remedy a problem, but to scale its success to other regions of the world.

The work with repatriates in Uzbekistan has now moved from a phase of emergency rescue to one of systemic integration. The country operates a well-functioning mechanism that combines state support with community oversight. The state ensures the full legal "erasure" of repatriates' past so that it does not obstruct their future. Where the early focus was on physical health, the emphasis has now shifted to mental wellbeing and civic identity. A repatriate in Uzbekistan in 2026 is a taxpayer, an active participant in mahalla life, and a parent whose children are building their futures within the country.

In contrast to those who chose to close their borders to their own citizens, Uzbekistan's leadership chose the path of responsibility. The country's experience affirms that when a state extends a hand, society grows stronger – and security becomes unshakeable.

Uzbekistan's motto in this sphere is clear: "Children cannot be terrorists" – and every Uzbek citizen will always remain under the protection of their homeland.

Timur Akhmedov,

Head of Department,

Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Ahead of the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia, a landmark event for interregional integration scheduled for June 4–6, Akramjon Ne’matov, First Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan, answered questions from Dunyo IA.

— Akramjon Ilhomovich, the second meeting within the framework of the Termez Dialogue will begin in the coming days. What is on the agenda of this forum, and what are its key priorities? Most observers primarily associate this process with economic issues — railways, energy infrastructure, and transit trade. Is this the core essence of connectivity?

— Undoubtedly, the economy is one of the key components. Economic cooperation creates tangible shared interests that bind states together, generates mutual benefits, and serves as the foundation for the prosperity and growth of our peoples. Naturally, when we speak about transregional connectivity, logistics, trade, transport corridors, energy, and infrastructure constitute the essential and tangible foundation of this process.

However, connectivity cannot be measured solely in economic terms. Our agenda is far broader, and our objectives are far more ambitious. We are speaking about the creation of a common space of trust, sustainable development, and indivisible security across the vast Eurasian continent.

That is precisely why the agenda of the Termez Dialogue is so comprehensive and why its composition of participants is highly inclusive. This year’s meeting is being organized in partnership with the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). This is no coincidence, as CICA’s core mission has always been to strengthen confidence-building measures across Asia. The dialogue is also being actively supported by the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA) and the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

Although Central and South Asia remain at the geographic core of the discussions, countries from across the Eurasian space and beyond are full-fledged participants and stakeholders in this dialogue, as clearly evidenced by the delegations arriving from Azerbaijan, China, Germany, Qatar, Russia, Switzerland, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, the United States, and many other countries.

It is important to emphasize that the Termez Dialogue itself represents a practical embodiment of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s global initiative aimed at strengthening connectivity between Central and South Asia. This strategic vision received unanimous international support and was formally enshrined in a special United Nations General Assembly resolution adopted in 2022. The significance of this resolution can hardly be overstated: it established a long-term international legal framework for transregional rapprochement and recognized it as a key factor for sustainable development. More broadly, this step clearly reflects our President’s far-sighted strategic approach, which is based on the consistent development of interstate relations grounded in mutual benefit, genuine good-neighborliness, and preventive peacebuilding.

The dialogue is also co-organized by respected peacebuilding organizations, political foundations, and leading academic institutions. Among them are the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the Berghof Foundation (Germany), PeaceNexus (Switzerland), Search for Common Ground (United States), as well as the renowned Georgetown University. Our shared objective is to establish a genuinely inclusive multilateral platform for comprehensive and open dialogue.

— What does the programme of the upcoming dialogue include? Will it be limited solely to official plenary sessions?

— Our dialogue is a large-scale three-day forum, and its programme extends far beyond traditional plenary sessions. We seek to combine profound theoretical discussion with practical outcomes.

In addition to the main sessions, the programme includes a wide range of important side events.

In particular, the forum will host a series of expert and academic discussions devoted to cooperation between the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan, the development of dialogue within the Afghanistan–Uzbekistan–Pakistan dialogue format, issues of regional identity in Central Asia, as well as the promotion of youth dialogue on peacebuilding and sustainable development.

The primary purpose of these discussions is to mobilize intellectual and analytical expertise in support of a constructive cooperation agenda, deeper mutual understanding, and the establishment of long-term mechanisms for regional interaction.

Moreover, the programme includes on-site sessions. Participants of the dialogue will travel to Termez to familiarize themselves firsthand with the modern infrastructure facilitating trade, economic, and logistics cooperation with South Asian countries, including the activities of the Ayrtom International Trade Center and the Termez Cargo Center international logistics hub, while also experiencing the rich cultural and historical heritage of this ancient city.

The third day of the dialogue will take place in Samarkand, where delegates will explore the unique civilizational legacy of the Renaissance of Samarkand, which historically served as a bridge between East and West, North and South.

— How exactly is economic growth connected with stability and security? Is this purely a matter of business calculation, or do economic projects represent something greater?

— Absolutely, it represents something far greater. We are speaking about the formation of long-term strategic common interests. Large-scale cross-border projects are designed to firmly connect regions and deepen their interdependence. When countries become economically invested in joint creation and development, conflict ceases to serve the interests of any participant.

Moreover, sustainable economic growth removes the social foundations of destructive phenomena such as poverty, unemployment, and social marginalization, which have traditionally served as the principal fuel for radicalism and instability. Economic development addresses the root causes of challenges rather than merely dealing with their consequences.

Take, for example, the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor project — “Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Naibabad–Kharlachi”. For the countries of Central Asia, it provides the shortest route to the ports of the Indian Ocean, reducing logistics costs by 30–40 percent. For Pakistan and South Asia, it creates direct access to the resources and markets of our region.

This project will serve as a powerful driver for the development of adjacent sectors of the economy, creating new jobs, generating budget revenues, and opening the path toward accelerated technological advancement. Most importantly, however, this corridor integrates Afghanistan into the processes of peaceful and constructive development.

Thus, the Trans-Afghan railway is not merely a commercial or engineering project — it is a highly effective peacebuilding instrument that creates long-term economic incentives for peace on Afghan soil. The same principle applies to other major cross-border initiatives such as CASA-1000 and the TAPI gas pipeline. Their greatest value lies in the fact that they create a shared and indivisible interest among all parties in maintaining long-term peace and stability across the region.

— What role do the shared ecosystem and climate change issues play on the agenda? Central and South Asia are facing enormous pressure from environmental challenges.

— This is one of the most important and sensitive issues. Nature and our shared ecosystem most clearly demonstrate the inseparable link between our regions and the vital necessity of collective responses to common challenges.

Climate change illustrates how closely interconnected water security, food security, energy security, transport systems, and human livelihoods truly are. When the glaciers of the Pamirs and Tien Shan melt, this directly affects water supply and agriculture in both Central and South Asia.

Droughts and extreme weather events are our common challenges, requiring exclusively joint responses, because they directly affect the existential foundations of life for hundreds of millions of people and shape the trajectory of our sustainable development.

That is why the agenda of the dialogue includes issues related to joint adaptation and environmental sustainability. We are convinced that effective solutions cannot consist of isolated national measures; they must have a transboundary character.

We are actively engaged in this area. In particular, our Afghan partners are permanent participants in the water dialogue organized by Uzbekistan and Central Asia as a whole. Afghan delegations have actively participated in Tashkent Water Week, conferences on water diplomacy, and other regional environmental forums.

There is an ongoing joint search for mutually acceptable and equitable solutions in the sphere of shared water resource management, because nature does not recognize political borders. Today, we increasingly see that issues which could potentially become sources of tension, when approached properly, can instead provide the foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation.

The growing awareness of our shared environmental threats is becoming a powerful driver of our collective constructive efforts.

— What place do culture and the humanitarian dimension occupy within this large-scale transregional framework? How important are they?

— I would answer this way: they constitute our principal and foundational direction. Although we began our conversation with economics, infrastructure, and climate issues, I am convinced that cultural and humanitarian connectivity must come first. Economy and logistics form the skeleton, but culture and shared historical memory are the soul and heart of our integration.

It is important to understand that our countries share a common space of cultural, historical, and civilizational development. We are not building bridges of trust from scratch — this foundation was formed over centuries.

The Termez Dialogue itself is named after the ancient city of Termez, which for millennia served as a gateway for civilizational exchange between Central and South Asia.

On this land, the destinies and traditions of great empires became intertwined — beginning with Sogdiana, ancient Bactria, and the Achaemenid state, and continuing through the era of the Greco-Bactrian Kingdom, where a unique synthesis of Eastern and Hellenistic cultures emerged.

This was followed by the Kushan Empire, which presented the world with one of the earliest examples of comprehensive interregional integration and transformed Termez into a key hub of the Great Silk Road.

During the Middle Ages, the Turkic Khaganates acted as reliable guarantors of the security of trans-Eurasian trade routes, while the Ghaznavid dynasty created a powerful bridge of statehood linking the high culture of Mawarannahr with the plains of Hindustan.

Finally, the Timurid era and the Mughal Empire founded by Babur became the ultimate culmination of this synthesis. The architectural masterpieces of Samarkand and Bukhara found direct reflection in the majestic ensembles of Delhi, Agra, and Lahore, while a unified cultural layer emerged at the intersection of Old Uzbek, Persian, and Sanskrit languages. Its musical and poetic traditions continue to live within the cultural memory of our peoples to this day.

For centuries, this macro-region developed as a sacred crossroads of world religions. Bactria was one of the cradles of Zoroastrianism. From here, Buddhism spread through Afghanistan to the north and east — the Buddhist monasteries of Fayaztepa and Karatepa in Termez still preserve the memory of this spiritual bridge.

Nestorian Christianity, Tengrianism with its profound ecological philosophy of harmony between humanity and nature, and, of course, Islam — which absorbed the great heritage of religious tolerance and gave rise to the phenomenon of the Eastern Renaissance — all coexisted peacefully in this region.

All of this shaped a unique and resilient culture that has not disappeared but continues to live within our daily practices, thoughts, and traditions.

However, this heritage cannot survive in collective memory on its own — it must constantly be revived and recreated. History is an ongoing act of retelling, and our key task is to restore this great historical truth to active public consciousness.

I am deeply convinced that awareness of this shared heritage will significantly strengthen our collective responsibility for preserving peace and stability.

— But why does this heritage seem forgotten today?

— Unfortunately, over the past century and a half, this historical memory was systematically and deliberately erased from our consciousness.

We were artificially subjected to the destructive colonial stereotype of the “Great Game,” along with the false notion that our regions are doomed to perpetual fragmentation, geopolitical rivalry among external powers, and endless conflict.

To a considerable extent, we still remain under the influence of this harmful stereotype, perceiving Afghanistan exclusively through the prism of threats, while viewing South Asia as something distant, alien, and insecure.

But we are not standing on barren ruins. Our shared history remains alive.

Reviving this historical memory, developing profound expert discourse, and restoring awareness of our shared civilizational greatness represent an enormous historical responsibility borne by today’s generations and political elites. This is precisely one of the principal existential objectives of the Termez Dialogue.

When citizens, intellectuals, and leaders in Tashkent, Delhi, Islamabad, and Kabul begin to see one another not merely as business counterparts, but as heirs to a common cultural code, an entirely new level of trust will emerge.

This sense of belonging to a shared heritage will become the most reliable internal safeguard against any attempts by external actors to destabilize the region or exploit regional contradictions.

The awareness of the indivisibility of our shared destiny will compel nations to choose a constructive agenda without alternative and to reject war once and for all.

Ahead of the Tashkent round of the Termez Dialogue, it is becoming increasingly evident that Uzbekistan is offering the international community a fundamentally different and deeply thought-out philosophy of integration.

This is not merely a technocratic approach to building railways or laying power transmission lines. It is a doctrine in which physical infrastructure serves only as the material embodiment of strong invisible ties rooted in a shared history.

Once this fundamental sense of responsibility and belonging is established, trade routes, investment flows, and climate initiatives will function naturally and sustainably, because the economy will become a logical continuation of mutual civilizational affinity.

The Termez Dialogue is returning to the peoples of Asia their own history, reminding them of what must be cherished and for the sake of what great future peace and stability must be preserved on this sacred land.

Dunyo IA

At the end of May, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev will take part in the upcoming summit of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in Astana.

In recent years, the participation of the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in events of the Eurasian Economic Union has become an important element of the country’s foreign economic strategy, aimed at expanding practical cooperation, strengthening trade and economic ties, and developing sustainable mechanisms of regional interaction. Against the backdrop of global economic transformation, increasingly complex logistics routes, and growing competition for investment resources, the Eurasian direction is gaining particular importance for Uzbekistan.

As noted by the President of Uzbekistan during a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in 2025, “in the context of growing fragmentation of global markets, the increasing complexity of supply chains, and shifts in the allocation of investment resources, the deepening of pragmatic and mutually beneficial cooperation with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union is of fundamental importance for us”. This position reflects Uzbekistan’s commitment to building sustainable and long-term economic ties across the Eurasian space.

The Eurasian Economic Union is one of the largest integration associations in the post-Soviet region, established on the basis of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space. The Union began functioning on 1 January 2015, following the entry into force of the Treaty on the EAEU, signed by Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, later joined by Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

The modern stage of interaction between Uzbekistan and the Eurasian Economic Union dates back to 2019, when the Republic began a comprehensive review of expanding cooperation with the bloc. On 11 December 2020, Uzbekistan officially obtained observer status in the EAEU, enabling the country to participate in the meetings of the Union’s bodies, establish a structured dialogue with the Eurasian Economic Commission, and study the practical mechanisms of the integration association’s functioning.

Since then, cooperation between Uzbekistan and the EAEU has taken on a stable, systematic, and practice-oriented character. An interagency working group on cooperation with the Union was established, a mechanism of regular consultations with the Eurasian Economic Commission was put in place, and a Memorandum of Cooperation between the government of Uzbekistan and the EEC was signed. Subsequently, the parties moved on to the implementation of joint three-year cooperation plans covering trade, industry, transport, the financial sector, and digital technologies.

Uzbekistan’s participation in EAEU high-level events has also intensified. Since 2021, the President of Uzbekistan has regularly participated in meetings of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, while government representatives have taken part in the work of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council. This demonstrates the progressive development of cooperation and the growing interest of both sides in expanding practical engagement.

In recent years, cooperation between Uzbekistan and the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has demonstrated steady positive dynamics. The Eurasian space remains one of the most important directions of the Republic’s foreign trade. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with EAEU countries exceeded USD 20 billion, while the share of the Union’s member states in the country’s total foreign trade reached almost one quarter of overall external trade turnover.

Uzbekistan is also participating in a number of sectoral initiatives and projects within the EAEU framework. These include the development of e-commerce, the digitalization of rail freight transportation, the implementation of the “Eurasian Agroexpress” project, and cooperation on the climate agenda. These areas contribute to reducing logistics costs, simplifying cross-border trade, and enhancing the connectivity of transport corridors across the Eurasian space.

At the current stage, cooperation between Uzbekistan and the Eurasian Economic Union is gradually moving to a qualitatively new level, encompassing not only trade and economic relations, but also digital transformation, technological cooperation, and the development of joint infrastructure. One of the key priorities is the removal of existing barriers and the creation of more efficient mechanisms for economic interaction.

An important component of the current stage of engagement is the development of digital integration. Uzbekistan is interested in the harmonization of digital platforms, the expansion of electronic commerce, and the introduction of modern data exchange mechanisms. Such an approach corresponds both to the goals of improving the efficiency of foreign trade and to the broader objective of building a modern and interconnected economic infrastructure across the Eurasian space.

Within a relatively short period of interaction in the status of an observer state, the parties have succeeded in establishing stable mechanisms of dialogue, expanding trade and economic ties, and moving toward the implementation of concrete sectoral and infrastructure projects.

For Uzbekistan, the Eurasian direction remains an important element of its strategy for economic modernization, industrial cooperation, and the strengthening of transport and logistics connectivity. At the same time, the Republic continues to adhere to a model of flexible and pragmatic participation in integration processes, guided primarily by national economic interests and the principle of mutual benefit.

In the context of the transformation of the global economy, intensifying competition for markets, and changing global logistics routes, cooperation with the EAEU is viewed by Tashkent as one of the instruments for ensuring sustainable economic growth, expanding export opportunities, and enhancing the competitiveness of the national economy. For this reason, Uzbekistan intends to further strengthen practical cooperation with the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, develop new areas of collaboration, and maintain a constructive dialogue on key issues of regional development.

Dunyo IA

Over the past five years, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) has undergone a qualitative transformation, evolving into an effective mechanism for interregional cooperation.

The stability and effectiveness of this format are largely determined by the degree of development of its institutional architecture. Within the OTS, this architecture features a multi-tiered structure, comprising the Council of Heads of State, the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs, the Committee of Senior Officials, the Council of Elders and the Secretariat of the organization.

A powerful impetus to the development of the association was provided by the adoption in 2021 of the “Turkic Vision – 2040” strategy, which became the conceptual foundation for the formulation of sectoral roadmaps, action plans, and a system of long-term milestones. The implementation of this strategy has manifested most visibly in the areas of transport digitalization, customs procedures, investment cooperation, and educational exchange.

Special attention should be paid to the activities of the Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic States (TURKPA), within the framework of which efforts have intensified to harmonize legislative approaches in the fields of trade, transport regulation and humanitarian cooperation.

A significant impetus to the development of the OTS was provided by the active engagement of Uzbekistan in the organization's work. In the subsequent period, Tashkent became one of the key drivers in modernizing the OTS agenda. At the initiative of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the promotion of projects in transport connectivity, industrial cooperation, digital transformation, and investment collaboration intensified. It is with the invigoration of Uzbek participation that many experts associate the organization's transition from a declarative stage to a phase of practical institutionalization.

The 2022 Samarkand Summit provided an additional symbolic and political impetus, during which decisions were made to establish the Turkic Investment Fund and institutionally expand the economic agenda. This stage solidified the evolution of the OTS toward forming a fully-fledged geo-economic space while preserving its cultural and historical foundation.

Concurrently, economic cooperation is steadily establishing itself as a key pillar of the OTS development. The combined demographic potential of the organization is estimated at approximately 178 million people, a significant portion of whom comprise a young, able-bodied population. The nominal GDP of the member states exceeds USD 1.8–1.9 trillion, while their total foreign trade turnover surpasses USD 1.1 trillion.

In recent years, interregional trade has demonstrated steady positive dynamics. According to estimates by the OTS Secretariat, mutual trade turnover among member states reached USD 22–23 billion, nearly doubling compared to the figures at the beginning of the decade.

Uzbekistan plays a notable role in this process. By the end of 2025, the Republic's trade volume with OTS countries exceeded USD 9 billion, whereas in 2019, this figure stood at approximately USD 4.2 billion. Thus, over a six-year period, the trade turnover has practically doubled.

A prime example is the Uzbek-Turkish industrial cooperation. The number of enterprises with Turkish capital participation in Uzbekistan has surpassed 2,000, while the total volume of joint investment projects is estimated at over USD 5 billion. A significant share of these projects is concentrated in the textile industry, building materials manufacturing, electrical engineering, and the food industry.

The specific significance of this interstate association is driven by its geo-economic location. The member states of the organization are situated at the strategic intersection of transport arteries linking East Asia, the South Caucasus, the Middle East and Europe.

Its central element is the Middle Corridor, which connects China, Central Asia, the Caspian region, the South Caucasus, Türkiye and onwards to European markets. Over the past three years, the route has demonstrated steady cargo traffic growth. By the end of 2025, shipment volumes along the corridor exceeded 4.5 million tons, whereas in 2021, they stood at less than 1 million tons.

A key driver of this growth has been the comprehensive modernization of port infrastructure. For instance, following its reconstruction, the Baku International Sea Trade Port now possesses the capacity to handle up to 15 million tons of cargo annually, including up to 100,000 containers, with future expansion potential reaching 25 million tons.

The acceleration of delivery timelines is of equally vital importance. While cargo transportation from China to Europe along this route previously required 40–50 days, the digitalization of document flows (e-CMR), the unification of pre-arrival customs declaration procedures, and infrastructure modernization have successfully reduced this timeframe to 18–23 days.

The creation of a trans-regional "green energy corridor" is emerging as a highly promising avenue of cooperation, envisaging the export of electricity generated from renewable sources in Central Asia and the South Caucasus toward Europe. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have intensified their coordination regarding the synchronization and construction of the necessary power transmission infrastructure.

At the same time, in the context of accelerating global digitalization, technological development is acquiring not only economic but also strategic importance, forming the foundation for enhancing the efficiency of interstate cooperation, modernizing industry, and strengthening infrastructural connectivity.

The combined volume of the digital economy of the member states already exceeds $110 billion, while the average annual growth rate of the sector in a number of countries stands at 12–18%, which is significantly higher than the global growth rates of traditional industry.

The strengthening of the OTS digital development track was reflected in the agenda of the informal summit held on May 15, 2026, in Turkistan, where artificial intelligence and digital development served as the central theme. This highlighted the organization's transition toward treating technological transformation as a high-priority area of strategic cooperation.

Uzbekistan is likewise demonstrating accelerated digital modernization. By the end of 2025, the country's export of IT services exceeded $1 billion, representing a nearly fivefold increase compared to 2020. Hundreds of companies operate through a network of specialized IT Parks, serving external markets, including the OTS member states. Within the framework of regional cooperation, the Republic actively promotes initiatives for the unification of digital services and the development of joint educational programs in high technology.

However, the effectiveness of these processes is largely determined not only by economic but also by humanitarian factors. In this regard, the OTS possesses a unique advantage, as it is built upon a deep historical and cultural commonality, linguistic proximity, and a shared civilizational heritage among the member states.

A pivotal role in this process is played by a network of specialized institutions, among which the International Turkic Academy, TURKSOY, TURKPA, and the Turkic Universities Union hold particular significance, ensuring the comprehensive development of humanitarian, scientific and educational cooperation.

These structures provide coordination for scientific research, the development of joint educational initiatives, the promotion of cultural heritage, and the expansion of inter-societal engagement.

Special attention is dedicated to the development of academic integration. Since 2025, dozens of academic exchange programs, including joint master's and doctoral tracks, have been implemented within the framework of inter-university cooperation among the OTS states. The number of students participating in educational mobility between the countries of the organization increases annually by an average of 18–22%.

A notable contribution to this process is made by leading universities, such as the Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Ankara University, Samarkand State University, and the Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, which serve as key centers for personnel training and scientific support for integration processes.

Separate attention of the member states is directed toward expanding tourism potential. The cumulative tourism flow among the OTS states has increased by more than 35% over the past five years. A significant impact was delivered by the development of joint tourist routes, including pilgrimage, historical-cultural, and ethnographic programs.

In this context, "Cultural Capital of the Turkic World" program and the granting of this status to cities such as Khiva, Aktau, Turkmenbashi, and Shusha have contributed to a significant intensification of tourism exchange within the format.

Another factor driving tourism development has been the formulation of a unified tourism product, "Tabarruk Ziyorat," aimed at developing religious and educational tourism among Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Türkiye.

Looking ahead, the OTS possesses significant potential for further strengthening as a space for practical cooperation.

Crucial importance in this context will be attached to the deepening of economic cooperation by reducing non-tariff barriers and digitalizing trade and customs procedures, the further development of transport and logistics connectivity - primarily within the framework of the Middle Corridor - the expansion of technological collaboration focused on the development of the digital economy and joint innovation platforms, as well as the strengthening of expert-analytical, academic and educational interaction.

On the whole, deepening cooperation across key areas will serve to strengthen the role of the OTS as one of the most promising frameworks ensuring the development and resilience of Central Asian nations.

In this context, the informal OTS summit held in Turkistan stands as a crucial milestone in advancing this agenda, reaffirming the commitment of the member states to expanding practical cooperation and defining new benchmarks for joint development, primarily in digital transformation and technological collaboration.

From June 16^th to 19^th, the capital will host the 5^th Tashkent International Investment Forum, the country's primary investment platform and one of the region's largest business forums.

Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2026) has solidified its position as a key investment platform in Central Asia, bringing together states, international investors, and representatives of global business. The forum serves not merely as a platform for dialogue, but as a space where the region's practical investment agenda is actively shaped.

The core idea of the forum lies in the fact that Uzbekistan is consistently cementing its status as a regional investment hub, capable not only of attracting capital but also of defining long-term rules and directions for the economic development of Central Asia.

The scale of TIIF-2025 clearly demonstrated that the forum has transitioned to a new stage of its development. The event brought together more than 8,000 delegates from 97 countries, with the total volume of signed investment agreements reaching 30.5 billion US dollars. These indicators stand as some of the most significant results among regional investment platforms.

The growing number of participants, the broadening geography, and the increased volume of concluded deals bear witness to a notable strengthening of international business confidence in Uzbekistan's investment climate. The forum is increasingly perceived not as a one-off discussion platform, but as a sustainable mechanism for generating real investment solutions.

The significance of the Tashkent International Investment Forum is determined not only by its scale, but also by its practical value for participants. TIIF provides a unique opportunity for direct access to key economic and political decision-makers - ranging from heads of state and governments to representatives of international financial institutions, sovereign wealth funds and major corporations.

The forum cultivates a rare environment where the state, investors, and business are concentrated within a single space, allowing for a seamless transition from general discussions to concrete formats of cooperation. Within the framework of TIIF, B2B and B2G meetings are actively advanced, serving as the cornerstone for concluding investment agreements and launching new projects.

TIIF-2026, scheduled to take place from June 16 to 19 in Tashkent, will maintain and expand upon the framework of previous years, combining elements of high-level political dialogue, business negotiations, and sectoral discussions. The forum's program features a plenary session with the participation of heads of state, panel sessions, thematic pitch presentations, and an expanded exhibition showcasing the country's industrial and investment potential.

One of the defining features of TIIF-2026 is its exceptionally high level of representation, which brings together a unique concentration of political, financial, and corporate capital within a single venue. The forum features heads of state and government, including leaders from Central Asian and European nations, alongside executives from international organizations and multilateral development banks.

Among the participants are representatives from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Investment Bank (EIB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), alongside sovereign wealth funds and export credit agencies. Such a composition ensures a direct link between state reforms, global financial institutions, and private capital.

The outcomes of the 4th Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2025) received widespread international acclaim from representatives of government structures, financial institutions, and global business, who noted Uzbekistan's growing role as the region's premier investment hub.

The Director of the Center for Global and Regional Studies (CEGREG), Professor Ikboljon Qoraboev (Kazakhstan), emphasized the scale and significance of the forum:

• Central Asia has once again taken center stage in the international business community. From June 9^th to 12^th, Tashkent hosted the 4^th Tashkent International Investment Forum - the largest regional investment platform, which is consistently gaining momentum and international resonance with each passing year. The scale of this year's forum is truly unprecedented, bringing together around 3,000 foreign delegates from nearly 100 countries.

TIIF is emerging as the premier platform for showcasing the industrial and economic potential of Central Asia, while the participation of state leaders, major investors, and international banks highlights the strategic significance of the forum as a window of opportunity for the region.

Associate Professor at the Azerbaijan State University of Economics, political scientist Emin Garibli (Azerbaijan), accentuated the integration significance of the forum:

• Tashkent International Investment Forum is emerging not only as a key economic platform for Central Asia, but also as a vital instrument for deepening integration processes between Europe and Asia. The forum strengthens Tashkent's status as a regional center of gravity for investment and demonstrates the country's resolve in advancing reforms within the framework of the New Uzbekistan strategy.

Executive Producer of CGTN, Zhang He (China), highlighted the investment impact of the reforms:

• The economic reforms implemented in Uzbekistan have created a more favorable environment for investors. Uzbekistan possesses immense potential in sectors such as industry, 'green' energy, agriculture, information technology, and tourism. This will serve to diversify investments and expand the manufacturing of high-value-added products.

Governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Nobumitsu Hayashi (Japan), noted the transformation of the forum's role:

• The forum has transformed into a fully-fledged regional platform, uniting business leaders and financiers from across Central Asia and Eastern Europe. The reforms in Uzbekistan are creating a predictable and attractive environment for long-term investments.

Chairman of the Chinese company CAMCE, Wang Bo (China), noted the practical value of the forum:

• This prestigious event opens up excellent opportunities not only for our company, but also for foreign investors seeking prospects in the dynamically developing economy of Uzbekistan. For foreign investors, Uzbekistan represents a unique opportunity, particularly in light of the WTO accession process. As the President noted, this will open up even greater prospects for sustainable development, making Uzbekistan an attractive destination for global investment.

Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2026) is cementing its role as one of the key platforms for investment dialogue in Central Asia, where not only the directions of economic policy are shaped, but also real mechanisms for interaction between the state and global capital are forged.

On the whole, the experience of previous years demonstrates that TIIF has already transitioned from a traditional conference format into a practical investment ecosystem that influences the structure of regional economic development. In this context, TIIF-2026 is viewed as the next phase in strengthening Uzbekistan's role within the global investment architecture and further expanding its integration into international capital markets.

Dunyo IA

1. Introduction

Central and South Asia form one of Eurasia’s most significant geographic junctions. Central Asia connects the continent’s east–west and north–south routes, while South Asia contains one of the world’s largest population bases and consumer markets. Taken together, the countries of the two subregions have a population of more than 2 billion people; however, their direct economic interaction remains below its potential level.

The scale of the potential market is confirmed by the figures: in 2024, the population of South Asia was approximately 1.68 billion people, while the region’s combined GDP was about US$4.5 trillion. At the same time, the economy of the five Central Asian countries in 2024 amounted to approximately US$489 billion. However, the level of interregional integration remains low: even within South Asia, intraregional trade is estimated at around 5% of total trade turnover, which is significantly lower than the ASEAN figure^[1][2][3].

This is evident in trade statistics: Central Asia’s main trade flows continue to be oriented toward Russia, China, the European Union, Türkiye, and the Middle East, while trade with South Asia occupies a comparatively limited niche.

The underused potential is explained not by a lack of demand, but by structural constraints. Between the two subregions, there are mountain barriers, complex cross-border routes, differing levels of integration into international supply chains, non-uniform customs and technical procedures, as well as the Afghanistan factor, which is simultaneously the shortest connecting link and the most sensitive element of the regional architecture. Therefore, the issue of connectivity has not only commercial but also strategic significance.

The restoration of economic ties between Central and South Asia should not be viewed as a romanticized return to historical routes. In modern conditions, it is a matter of competitiveness, supply-chain security, energy resilience, and diversification of foreign economic directions. For the countries of Central Asia, the southern route opens shorter access to the ports of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. For the countries of South Asia, it creates an opportunity to gain access to energy resources, food products, industrial goods, and new markets in Eurasia.

Uzbekistan occupies a special place in this logic. It is located in the central part of the region, borders all Central Asian states and Afghanistan, and therefore is capable of forming a link between the internal markets of Central Asia and the southern direction. At the same time, the role of a connector state means more than the transit of goods. It includes the coordination of infrastructure projects, the development of logistics services, the improvement of institutional quality, the creation of an analytical basis for decision-making, and the involvement of the private sector in interregional projects.

2. Historical and geographical preconditions for connectivity

The historical connection between Central and South Asia was formed long before the emergence of modern state borders. The cities of Transoxiana, Khorasan, Bactria, and northern India were part of a network of caravan routes and exchanges of artisanal goods, knowledge, religious traditions, and financial practices. Samarkand, Bukhara, Balkh, Merv, Kabul, Peshawar, and Lahore, in different periods, served as trade and cultural hubs linking the Eurasian space.

However, historical connectedness does not automatically translate into economic integration today. Modern supply chains depend on railways, highways, ports, energy networks, digital cargo-tracking systems, insurance, banking settlements, and predictable rules. Where even one of these elements is absent, transit becomes expensive, slow, and risky.

The geography of the region creates both incentives and constraints. On the one hand, the distance from Uzbekistan’s southern borders to northern Afghanistan is relatively short, and the route through Afghanistan is potentially the shortest overland path from Central Asia to Pakistan and onward to the ports of the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, mountain ranges, differences in railway gauge, the limited capacity of border infrastructure, security issues, and insufficient standardization of procedures increase the cost of projects.

Uzbekistan’s geographical role has not only qualitative but also measurable significance: the country is one of only two double-landlocked states in the world and, at the same time, the only state bordering all four other Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan. In this context, the Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway project, with a length of approximately 573 km, acquires systemic importance, since it could reduce the time and cost of transportation toward Pakistan’s ports by roughly 30%^[4].

Therefore, connectivity should be understood more broadly than the physical connection of two points on a map. In the modern economy, it includes four dimensions. The first is infrastructural: roads, railways, terminals, ports, and energy networks. The second is institutional: customs, tariffs, standards, sanitary and phytosanitary rules, permits, and transit guarantees. The third is commercial: demand, purchasing power, contracts, logistics companies, insurance, and banking channels. The fourth is social and humanitarian: education, labor skills, tourism, medical ties, and research cooperation.

This approach helps avoid oversimplification. Even the shortest road will not become a sustainable corridor unless it is supported by a reliable legal environment, competitive tariffs, financial guarantees, and coordination among states.

3. Current state of trade and economic cooperation

Trade and economic ties between Central and South Asia are developing, but their scale still does not correspond to the size of the markets. Trade between Central Asian countries and India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan remains relatively modest compared with their trade with China, Russia, the European Union, Türkiye, and countries of the Middle East.

Central Asia supplies, or could potentially expand supplies to South Asia, in such areas as agricultural products, grain, fruit and vegetable products, textiles, fertilizers, energy goods, certain types of metals, and industrial raw materials. South Asia, primarily India and Pakistan, holds competitive positions in pharmaceuticals, medical goods, IT services, equipment, textile products, processed food products, and consumer goods.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been strengthening the southern direction of its foreign economic policy. Trade ties with India and Pakistan are developing through pharmaceuticals, textiles, food products, services, logistics, and investment projects. Uzbekistan’s foreign trade in the southern direction is already growing, but it still occupies a limited place in the overall structure of foreign trade. The largest trade flows with South Asian countries are with Afghanistan and India. However, the very fact that certain bilateral flows are growing does not solve the main problem: interregional trade remains fragmented. In order to turn it into a sustainable market, it is necessary to reduce transaction costs, ensure the predictability of transit, make standards comparable, and develop business services.

The issue of trade data is especially important. Mutual trade is often assessed using different sources, while the statistics of exporting countries and importing countries may diverge. To develop effective policy, a regularly updated data panel is needed, broken down by corridors, types of cargo, border-crossing times, transportation costs, return loads, the number of permits, and the actual use of preferential regimes. Without such a database, regional initiatives risk remaining merely declaratory.

4. Transport and logistics infrastructure as the basis of connectivity

Transport infrastructure is the material foundation for the rapprochement of Central and South Asia. At the same time, it is more accurate to speak not of a single route, but of a portfolio of corridors. Relying on only one route increases the vulnerability of the entire system. A diversified network of routes through Afghanistan, Iran, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and existing Eurasian directions creates redundancy, reduces risks, and strengthens the negotiating position of shippers.

The key project in the southern direction remains the trans-Afghan railway corridor Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar. Its strategic value lies in its potential to connect Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries with Pakistan’s ports, including Karachi, Qasim, and Gwadar. If implemented, such a corridor could reduce the distance and delivery time for certain types of cargo. However, the project requires the resolution of several complex issues: financing, security, technical parameters, railway gauge compatibility, the operating model, tariffs, and the distribution of risks among participants.

The Termez–Hairatan hub in Uzbekistan has particular significance. It is the closest entry point from Uzbekistan into Afghanistan and is already used as a logistics, humanitarian, and trade channel. The development of terminals, warehouses, customs capacities, multimodal transport services, and digital cargo-control systems could turn this hub into a stable anchor point for interregional trade.

Alongside the trans-Afghan route, the route through Iran is also important. For India, Central Asia, and Afghanistan, the Chabahar port is of particular significance, as are its links with the International North–South Transport Corridor and the Ashgabat Agreement. This option does not replace the trans-Afghan route, but it increases the resilience of the trade system. Events of recent years have shown that the closure or restriction of individual routes quickly increases the importance of alternative pathways through Iran and the countries of Central Asia.

Road corridors remain a necessary complement to railways. They are especially important for perishable products, small consignments, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and high-value-added goods. In this area, the key factors are not only roads, but also border procedures, the permit system for carriers, weight control, insurance, the safety of parking areas, and access to backhaul cargo.

The development of air connectivity plays a separate role. Direct flights between Tashkent, Samarkand, Almaty, Astana, Delhi, Mumbai, Lahore, and other cities do not create mass freight logistics, but they reduce barriers to business travel, tourism, education, medical services, and managerial oversight of investment projects. For modern business, such mobility is not a secondary factor, but a systemic one.

5. Energy partnership: from project-based logic to a regional market

Energy is one of the most obvious areas of complementarity between Central and South Asia. The Central Asian countries possess significant resources in natural gas, hydropower, solar power, and wind generation. South Asia, primarily Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, faces high energy demand, seasonal consumption peaks, and the need for a more reliable supply structure.

The most advanced interregional project in the electricity sector is CASA-1000. According to World Bank materials, the project is intended to ensure the transmission of up to 1,300 MW of surplus summer electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The project also provides for high-voltage transmission infrastructure, including power transmission lines and converter stations. Its significance goes beyond the energy sector: it demonstrates the possibility of contract-based electricity trade between the subregions with the participation of international financial institutions.

In the gas sector, the best-known project is TAPI: Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India. Its planned logic is straightforward: Turkmen gas is expected to flow through Afghanistan to the energy-deficient markets of South Asia. Published descriptions of the project usually indicate a length of approximately 1,800 km and a designed capacity of up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. However, TAPI remains a complex project with a high dependence on security, financing, long-term contracts, payment guarantees, and political coordination among the participants.

CASA-1000 has not only political but also measurable infrastructural significance: the project cost is estimated at approximately US$1.2 billion, while the designed transmission capacity is 1,300 MW. The Kyrgyz component provides for around 456 km of 500 kV power transmission lines. This makes it possible to view CASA-1000 as the first major example of contract-based interregional electricity trade between Central and South Asia^[5][6].

The new energy agenda includes not only the export of fuel and electricity, but also the development of low-carbon solutions. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are expanding projects in solar, wind, and hydropower, while also modernizing their grids. In the long term, South Asia could become a market for seasonal electricity and energy services from Central Asia. However, this requires rules for cross-border trade, compatible dispatch mechanisms, commercial guarantees, transparent tariffs, and investment in grid resilience.

Energy cooperation must take into account climate and water-related factors. In Central Asia, hydropower is closely linked to irrigation and water resource management. In South Asia, electricity demand depends on temperature peaks, urbanization, and industrial growth. Therefore, energy projects should be accompanied by mechanisms for climate adaptation, forecasting water availability, improving energy efficiency, and developing energy storage systems.

6. Investment cooperation and business ties

Investment cooperation between Central and South Asia is still developing on a case-by-case basis, but it has significant potential. Unlike trade in raw materials, investment requires a higher level of trust, legal certainty, protection of property rights, clear tax regimes, access to foreign-exchange settlements, and high-quality business information.

The most promising areas include pharmaceuticals, medical services, agro-processing, textiles, logistics, warehouse infrastructure, IT services, education, tourism, financial technologies, renewable energy, and the production of components for infrastructure projects. South Asian companies have strong competencies in IT, pharmaceuticals, and services, while Central Asia offers access to raw materials, industrial sites, growing domestic markets, and transit opportunities.

An important task is to move from one-off business contacts to a systematic investment pipeline. This requires project catalogues, clear requirements for investors, standardized public-private partnership models, dispute-resolution mechanisms, insurance against political and commercial risks, and joint workforce training programs.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are of particular importance. Large infrastructure projects create the foundation, but it is small and medium-sized businesses that fill corridors with real goods and services. For them, access to information, affordable logistics services, digital marketplaces, simplified payments, standardized documents, and support in entering a new market are critical.

Development institutions and international financial organizations can play a catalytic role. Their participation reduces risks, improves the quality of project preparation, and disciplines the participants. However, external financing does not replace national reforms. Without clear rules, transparent statistics, and effective courts, even concessional loans will not create a sustainable flow of investment.

7. The strategic role of Uzbekistan as a connector state

Uzbekistan possesses a unique set of preconditions for playing the role of a connector state. It is located at the center of Central Asia, borders all the countries of the region as well as Afghanistan, and is also a major demographic and industrial market. For a country without access to the sea, the development of external corridors is not an optional task, but a condition for long-term competitiveness.

Uzbekistan’s role is not limited to transit. A transit country earns revenue from the movement of goods, but a connector state shapes rules, services, trust, and the institutional environment. This means developing multimodal hubs, creating logistics centers, digitalizing customs procedures, expanding railway and road links, training personnel, attracting banks and insurance organizations, and providing analytical support for projects.

The southern direction strengthens Uzbekistan’s foreign economic diversification. It complements the country’s already existing links in the northern, eastern, and western directions. At the same time, the diversification of routes reduces dependence on individual markets and transit pathways, which is especially important amid instability in global trade, changes in tariff policy, and geopolitical restrictions.

Termez occupies a special place in this strategy. It can serve as a border logistics center, a platform for trade with Afghanistan, a hub of humanitarian and commercial infrastructure, and a symbolic space for discussing connectivity between Central and South Asia. To turn this role into a sustainable result, investment is needed in terminals, railway approaches, warehouse capacity, services for carriers, and a system for analyzing cargo flows.

Uzbekistan’s strength also lies in its ability to put forward multilateral initiatives. Interregional connectivity cannot be implemented through bilateral agreements alone. It requires the alignment of interests among the countries of Central Asia, the countries of South Asia, Afghanistan, international financial institutions, business, and the expert community. In this sphere, Uzbekistan can act as a coordinator of the agenda and a provider of analytical solutions.

8. Key barriers and ways to overcome them

The first barrier is incomplete infrastructure. Many corridors exist in the form of project concepts or partially functioning routes. To transform them into commercially sustainable directions, technical and economic feasibility studies, agreed tariffs, clear sources of financing, unified operational models, and transparent risk allocation are required.

The second barrier is security and the predictability of transit. For business, what matters is not only the length of the route, but also the likelihood of delays, losses, border closures, changes in rules, and additional payments. Therefore, transport policy should include insurance mechanisms, security standards, corridor monitoring, crisis protocols, and regular information exchange among government agencies.

The third barrier is administrative fragmentation. Different documents, uncoordinated customs procedures, weak advance declaration, the absence of mutual recognition of certain certificates, and limited digital interoperability increase the cost of trade. The solution lies in the transition to electronic transport documents, the expansion of the single-window principle, the introduction of risk-based control, and the coordination of technical standards.

The scale of the financial challenge can be assessed through the example of CAREC: in 2021–2024, transport investment under the program amounted to US$8.61 billion, with a significant share of financing provided by international partners. This shows that infrastructure corridors require not only a political decision, but also a sustainable financial architecture^[7][8].

Administrative barriers have a measurable expression. According to CAREC monitoring, in 2022, the average border-crossing time on road corridors was 9.9 hours, while on railway corridors it was 40.6 hours. This confirms that the digitalization of documents, advance declaration, and risk-based control can produce an effect even without the immediate construction of new arterial routes.

The fourth barrier is financial constraints. Infrastructure projects require large capital investments and have long payback periods. A combination of budget funds, loans from international financial organizations, public-private partnerships, guarantees, project financing, and blended-finance mechanisms is needed. At the same time, each project must undergo an assessment of commercial viability, not only political attractiveness.

The fifth barrier is the lack of market information. Companies often do not know potential partners, market requirements, logistics tariffs, certification rules, or available financial instruments. This barrier can be reduced through digital trade platforms, business missions, sectoral catalogues, regular exhibitions, analytical reviews, and consulting centers under chambers of commerce and industry.

The sixth barrier is climate and resource-related risks. Mountainous areas, droughts, floods, changes in glacial runoff, and extreme weather events affect roads, energy, and agriculture. New corridors should be designed with climate resilience in mind, while energy projects should take into account the water balance and the seasonality of demand.

Practical priorities through 2030

9. The Termez Dialogue as an institutional foundation for cooperation

The Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia can become an important institutional platform for coordinating the interregional agenda. In 2025, the first dialogue was held in Termez, dedicated to the formation of a shared space of peace, friendship, and prosperity. The very choice of Termez emphasizes the city’s practical role as Uzbekistan’s southern hub and as a symbolic point of connection with Afghanistan and South Asia.

The effectiveness of such a format will depend on whether it can move from general statements to the management of a project-based agenda. For this purpose, it would be advisable to structure the dialogue around four permanent tracks: transport and logistics, trade and standards, energy and climate, and investment and human capital. Each track should have a project map, progress indicators, responsible participants, and a mechanism for annual updates.

The participation of business is of particular importance. States can sign framework documents, but real demand for corridors is generated by exporters, importers, carriers, banks, insurance companies, terminal operators, and manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, within the framework of the Termez Dialogue, business sessions, B2B platforms, sectoral presentations, and discussions of specific barriers faced by companies are necessary.

The expert track should serve as an evidence base. It can prepare an annual report on the state of connectivity between Central and South Asia, a corridor-readiness index, monitoring of transportation time and costs, a review of regulatory barriers, analysis of investment projects, and recommendations for governments. In this area, Uzbekistan’s analytical institutions can play a leading role.

The Termez Dialogue is also important as an instrument for involving Afghanistan in economic processes on a pragmatic basis. This is not a matter of political legitimization, but of reducing economic isolation, developing transit procedures, supporting sustainable livelihoods, and creating incentives for stability. This logic corresponds to the interests of all participants, since Afghanistan’s economic predictability directly affects the cost and security of interregional routes.

10. Connectivity and the Sustainable Development Goals

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is directly linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The development of energy networks supports SDG 7, the expansion of trade and employment corresponds to SDG 8, the construction of resilient infrastructure is linked to SDG 9, the reduction of spatial isolation contributes to SDG 10, climate resilience relates to SDG 13, and regional coordination and partnerships correspond to SDG 16 and SDG 17.

However, the link with the SDGs does not arise automatically. Infrastructure can promote development, but it can also deepen inequality if benefits accrue only to major actors while local communities bear the costs. Therefore, projects should include environmental assessment, social safeguards, consultations with the population, management of land-related issues, occupational safety measures, and transparent compensation mechanisms.

Special attention should be paid to women, youth, and small enterprises. New corridors create demand for services in logistics, trade, catering, repair, digital support, education, and tourism. If access to these opportunities is opened to local entrepreneurs, infrastructure will become a source of inclusive growth, not merely transit rent.

Climate risk is already becoming an economic factor. According to World Bank estimates, by 2030, nearly 90% of South Asia’s population may be exposed to intense heat, while more than one fifth of the population may face the risk of severe flooding. For Central Asia, the key constraint is water: in Uzbekistan, the volume of water withdrawal significantly exceeds internal renewable resources, and the current water deficit may increase to 7 billion m³ by 2030 and to 15 billion m³ by 2050^[9][10][11].

The climate dimension of connectivity is becoming increasingly important. South Asia and Central Asia are exposed to the risks of extreme weather events, glacier melt, droughts, floods, and tensions around water. Therefore, new roads, railways, power transmission lines, and logistics centers should be designed with long-term climate scenarios in mind. For the energy sector, this means combining electricity trade, energy efficiency, renewable sources, and grid resilience.

From the standpoint of sustainable development, the most promising model is not one of raw-material transit, but one of value-added creation. This implies agro-processing, industrial cooperation, service chains, digital trade, the localization of selected industries, and workforce training. In this case, connectivity is transformed from the movement of goods into a mechanism of structural modernization.

11. Conclusion

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is one of the key conditions for the sustainable development of the macroregion. It is capable of expanding sales markets, reducing transport isolation, strengthening energy security, supporting employment, and creating new incentives for regional stability. At the same time, the expected effect depends not on a single project, but on a coordinated package of measures.

The main practical conclusion is the need for a portfolio approach. The trans-Afghan railway, the route through Iran, road corridors, air connectivity, the CASA-1000 and TAPI energy projects, trade digitalization, logistics hubs, and investment platforms should be viewed as mutually complementary elements. Each of them has different implementation timelines, risks, and economic logic; therefore, the regional strategy should ensure redundancy and flexibility.

Uzbekistan has objective advantages for the role of a connector state. Its geography, demographic potential, industrial base, southern hub in Termez, and active foreign economic agenda make it possible to bring together the interests of Central and South Asia.

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform where political will is translated into project-level discipline. For this to happen, it should generate not only declarations, but also a list of projects, indicators, road maps, evaluation mechanisms, and permanent channels of interaction among business, experts, and government agencies.

In the long term, connectivity between Central and South Asia should be oriented not only toward increasing trade volumes, but also toward improving the quality of development. A sustainable macroregion will take shape where infrastructure is connected with institutions, energy with climate responsibility, trade with industrial cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives with evidence-based analysis and practical results.

Muhammad Babadjanov,

Head of Department

at The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies

under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan

[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration/trade

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=TJ-UZ-KZ-TM-KG

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/country/south-asia

[4] https://uzembassy.kz/en/article/the-mazar-i-sharif-kabul-peshawar-railway-will-open-up-broad-prospects-for-international-trade

[5] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/brief/updated-q-a-on-casa-1000-resumption-in-afghanistan

[6] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/11/01/additional-financing-for-casa-1000-project-for-the-kyrgyz-republic

[7] https://www.carecprogram.org/uploads/03-CAREC-Transport-Strategy-2030-Midterm-Review-Draft-Report.pdf

[8] https://cpmm.carecprogram.org/2022-report/key-results/

[9] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/03/climate-resilience-in-south-asia-will-be-private-sector-led

[10] https://data.worldbank.org/country/uzbekistan

[11] https://www.adb.org/news/features/numbers-climate-change-central-asia

Sadullaev Qudrat Yusubbaevich
Chief Research Fellow of the Academy of Public Policy and Administration under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Doctor of Law (DSc)

The contemporary system of international relations is being shaped by rapid geopolitical changes, growing fragmentation, disruptions in transport and supply chains, climate change, and increasing risks to food and energy security. Under these conditions, trust, dialogue and practical cooperation among states are becoming more important than ever. For Central and South Asia — two historically interconnected regions with significant yet not fully realized potential — connectivity has acquired not only economic, but also strategic, political and civilizational significance.

The initiative to strengthen connectivity between Central and South Asia, advanced by President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, represents a timely response to this historical and geopolitical demand. Its core idea is that security cannot be ensured solely through military or political instruments. It must also be built through economic development, transport corridors, trade links, education, culture and human capital. In this sense, development is not merely a consequence of security; rather, it is one of its fundamental preconditions.

This approach gained institutional form in July 2021, when Tashkent hosted the high-level international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities” at the initiative of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The forum created an important political and expert platform for advancing interregional cooperation. Its international recognition was further demonstrated in 2022, when the United Nations General Assembly adopted the resolution “Strengthening Connectivity between Central and South Asia.” Initiated by the President of Uzbekistan and supported by more than 40 states, the resolution confirmed that Uzbekistan’s vision has significance not only at the national or regional level, but also for the wider international community.

The Termez Dialogue is a practical continuation of this diplomatic and intellectual process. Launched in May 2025, it has emerged as a permanent platform aimed at creating a stable, systematic and practice-oriented environment for cooperation between Central and South Asia. Its first meeting attracted considerable attention from the international expert community due to its broad participation, multilateral format and applied focus. The growing interest in this initiative was also reflected in the organization of a separate session on the Termez Dialogue during the Doha Forum in December 2025.

The second meeting of the Termez Dialogue, scheduled for 4–6 June 2026 in Tashkent, Termez and Samarkand, is expected to mark a new stage in the development of this platform. The main emphasis will shift from general conceptual discussions to the identification of specific priorities and practical mechanisms. In other words, the Dialogue is intended not only to exchange views, but also to generate concrete outcomes in political dialogue, economic connectivity, transport and logistics, climate adaptation, and cultural-humanitarian cooperation.

One of the key features of the Termez Dialogue is that it reflects Uzbekistan’s proactive, pragmatic and open foreign policy. Uzbekistan does not position itself as a state forced to choose between competing blocs, but rather as a reliable platform for dialogue among different regions, markets and civilizations. In this regard, the Termez Dialogue forms part of a broader system of initiatives, including the Fergana Peace Forum, the Samarkand Climate Forum, the Samarkand Solidarity Initiative, and proposals within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on good-neighbourliness, trust and cross-border partnership.

Transport and logistics remain among the most important dimensions of connectivity between Central and South Asia. The countries of Central Asia are landlocked and therefore face structural limitations in accessing global markets. Diversifying transport routes, reducing logistics costs and facilitating access to external markets are essential for the region’s long-term economic development. According to available estimates, the level of transport connectivity of Central Asian states with external markets is around 60 per cent, while in the European Union and ASEAN countries it exceeds 95 per cent. In some cases, transport costs in Central Asia may reach up to 50 per cent of the final value of goods, which is several times higher than the global average.

In this context, the Trans-Afghan Corridor has strategic importance. It can provide Central Asian states with the shortest access to the ports of the Indian Ocean and link South Asia with the markets of Central Asia, Russia, China and Europe. This project is not limited to railway construction or transport infrastructure. It is also an instrument of regional economic integration, Afghanistan’s involvement in peaceful development processes, and the formation of a new trade architecture in Eurasia. Through this approach, Uzbekistan seeks to transform its geographical constraints into logistical advantages.

Afghanistan occupies a special place in this process. It is a natural land bridge connecting Central and South Asia. Uzbekistan’s policy toward Afghanistan is consistent and practical. Since 2021, Uzbekistan has sent 15 humanitarian convoys to Afghanistan, delivering more than 13,000 tons of humanitarian assistance. At the same time, bilateral trade and economic relations have been developing dynamically. In 2025, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan reached 1.7 billion US dollars, which is 55 per cent higher than the previous year. These figures demonstrate that Uzbekistan views Afghanistan not as a source of problems, but as an important participant in regional development and stability.

The choice of Termez as one of the central locations of this initiative is also highly symbolic. Historically, Termez has been a meeting point of trade, culture, science and religious traditions between Central and South Asia. The city played an important role in the history of Bactria, the Kushan Empire, the Great Silk Road and wider civilizational exchange. Today, Termez is becoming Uzbekistan’s southern gateway and a modern centre of practical cooperation with Afghanistan and South Asia.

There are concrete examples of this transformation. The Termez International Trade Centre, opened on 29 August 2024, covers 36 hectares and is located only 500 metres from the border with Afghanistan. A 15-day visa-free regime has been introduced within the centre. Its infrastructure includes more than 3,000 shops, customs facilities, banking services, public service centres and export-oriented platforms. The annual export potential of products represented in the trade zone is estimated at 1.2 billion US dollars. More than 1,000 local residents and about 140 Afghan citizens are employed there. This shows that connectivity is not an abstract political slogan, but a practical reality linked to jobs, exports, services and human livelihoods.

Another important example is the Termez Cargo Centre, an international transport and logistics hub operating since 2016. Located near the intersection of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, the centre has been used since 2021 by the United Nations World Food Programme and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees for delivering humanitarian cargo to Afghanistan. Thus, Termez is becoming not only a trade and logistics hub, but also an important point of humanitarian diplomacy.

The Educational Centre for Afghan Citizens, established in Termez in 2018, also reflects Uzbekistan’s long-term investment in human capital. The centre provides education for Afghan youth in 17 higher education fields and 16 vocational and secondary-specialized areas. Since its establishment, more than 800 Afghan citizens have studied there, including 200 girls and women. These figures demonstrate the importance of education and professional training in stabilizing Afghanistan. Peace is strengthened not only through political agreements, but also through an educated, skilled and socially active generation.

Another important dimension of the Termez Dialogue is climate and environmental sustainability. Central and South Asia are among the regions most affected by the consequences of climate change. Water scarcity, desertification, soil degradation, air pollution, glacier melting and natural disasters are not only national challenges, but also transboundary problems. Therefore, climate adaptation, rational use of water resources, early warning systems and the exchange of digital hydrological data should become integral components of cooperation between the two regions.

Uzbekistan is taking an active role in this field as well. The Samarkand Climate Forum, regional climate summits, the Green Agenda, the regional strategy for climate adaptation and environmental protection programmes are important steps in this direction. These initiatives show that Central Asia is no longer merely a region affected by environmental problems; it is increasingly becoming an active regional actor proposing practical solutions.

Cultural and humanitarian cooperation forms one of the deepest foundations of interregional connectivity. The peoples of Central and South Asia have been linked for centuries through shared history, trade routes, science, culture and spirituality. Today, the demographic potential of the two regions also creates major opportunities: more than 60 per cent of the population is under the age of 30. This opens broad prospects for cooperation in education, science, academic exchange, innovation and human capital development.

From this perspective, the Termez Dialogue is not only a meeting of diplomats and experts. It should also serve as a platform that opens new opportunities for young people, scholars, entrepreneurs, educational institutions, cultural actors and civil society representatives. Economic projects require trust, and trust requires closer ties, mutual understanding and cultural dialogue among peoples.

The planned visit to Samarkand also carries deep symbolic meaning. For centuries, Samarkand served as a centre of science, trade and diplomacy connecting East and West, Central and South Asia, the Middle East and Europe. The “Spirit of Samarkand” reflects openness, tolerance, dialogue and a commitment to shared development. In the diplomacy of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Samarkand has become a platform that connects Uzbekistan’s historical legacy with modern international initiatives.

In conclusion, the Termez Dialogue is not an ordinary international event aimed only at bringing Central and South Asia closer together. It is a strategic platform that reflects Uzbekistan’s new foreign policy thinking, regional responsibility and global initiative. Its foundation rests on three interconnected principles: trust through dialogue, cooperation through dialogue, and shared development through cooperation.

The international community is increasingly recognizing Uzbekistan’s efforts in this direction. The adoption of the UN General Assembly resolution, the support of more than 40 states, and the growing interest of international organizations, experts and regional partners in the Termez Dialogue clearly demonstrate this trend. Through this platform, Uzbekistan is building a new bridge of trust between Central and South Asia — a bridge strengthened by trade routes, railways, educational programmes, cultural ties and humanitarian initiatives.

Therefore, the Termez Dialogue should be viewed as an emerging architecture of interregional cooperation. It contributes to the formation of Central and South Asia not merely as neighbouring geographic spaces, but as a macro-region united by common interests, shared security and a common future. In this process, Uzbekistan acts as an initiator, organizer and reliable bridge between the two regions.

Central and South Asia are increasingly facing the same reality: climate risks are no longer a distant forecast. Droughts, water scarcity, heatwaves, land degradation, dust storms, floods, and pressure on water, food and energy security are already affecting economies, public health, infrastructure, and the resilience of entire regions.

This is why the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia is of particular significance. The second meeting is organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in partnership with the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. This format reflects Uzbekistan’s consistent foreign policy direction aimed at strengthening trust, open dialogue, and sustainable connectivity between the regions.

While the first meeting introduced the Termez Dialogue as a platform for bringing the two regions closer together, the new agenda takes the next step: moving from a discussion of connectivity to practical mechanisms for joint climate adaptation and stronger environmental resilience. Its task is to move from conceptual discussions to concrete priorities and practical mechanisms, with joint adaptation to climate change identified among the key areas of cooperation.

Climate as a New Test of Connectivity

Climate change shows how closely water, food, energy, transport, health, and ecosystems are linked. When water availability declines, the impact is not limited to agriculture. It also affects hydropower, food prices, migration, employment, soil conditions, and even regional stability. As extreme heat becomes more frequent, cities, transport systems, healthcare systems, and labour productivity all come under pressure.

The Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), prepared as part of the Sixth Assessment Cycle, emphasizes that adaptation is already taking place in all regions of the world, but the gap between what is needed and what is being done remains and will continue to grow at the current pace of action. The IPCC also underlines that the most effective responses are not isolated measures, but integrated solutions that connect water management, agriculture, infrastructure, social protection, ecosystems, and population needs.

This is particularly important for Central and South Asia. Both regions depend on mountain watersheds, irrigated agriculture, the resilience of rural areas, as well as stable and secure energy supply and the cross-border movement of goods and people. Climate adaptation, therefore, cannot remain solely a matter of national policy. It must become part of interregional cooperation.

Uzbekistan: The Data Confirm the Urgency of Action

Uzbekistan’s Fourth National Communication under the UNFCCC identifies the country as among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in Central Asia and Eurasia. This vulnerability is linked to accelerated temperature rise, growing water scarcity, glacier retreat, and the increasing frequency of extreme hydrometeorological events.

Water remains an especially sensitive factor. Uzbekistan’s water resources belong to the Aral Sea basin, while the main surface runoff of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers is formed outside the country. This means that Uzbekistan’s climate resilience is directly linked to the quality of regional and interregional cooperation. Water, data, forecasts, infrastructure, and trust become part of one security system.

Cities as a New Frontline of Climate Adaptation

The climate agenda is also becoming increasingly connected with the future of cities. Speaking at the Leaders’ Summit of the 13th session of the World Urban Forum in Baku, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted that, over the next 15 years, the country’s population is expected to grow from 38 to 50 million people, while the urbanization rate is projected to rise from 51% to 65%.

For Uzbekistan, this is not only a demographic trend but also a climate challenge. Urban growth increases pressure on water, energy, transport, housing, air quality, and green spaces. Therefore, plans for sustainable urbanization — including the development of “green”, “smart”, “safe”, and “15-minute” cities, the expansion of urban greenery, and the introduction of green city principles — are directly linked to climate adaptation.

In this context, the Termez Dialogue can become a platform for exchanging experience not only on water and agriculture, but also on climate-resilient urban development: from reducing the urban heat island effect and saving water to clean transport, digital air quality monitoring, and designing new districts with climate risks in mind.

A New Emphasis: Adaptation as a Practical Development Agenda

The Termez Dialogue can offer an important new approach: to view adaptation not as a response to crises, but as an investment in sustainable development. This changes the very language of climate policy.

Adaptation is not only about building protective infrastructure or responding to emergencies. It is about more accurate forecasting of droughts and floods and data exchange between countries. It is about water-saving agriculture, the modernization of canals, pumping stations, and urban infrastructure. It is about restoring degraded lands and ecosystems. It is about preparing farmers, engineers, hydrologists, energy specialists, and local authorities to operate under new climate conditions.

This is why the Concept of the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue emphasizes the consolidation of efforts by states and partners to develop coordinated and mutually reinforcing approaches to climate adaptation and to reducing the socio-economic consequences of climate and environmental risks.

Why Central and South Asia Must Adapt Together

Climate risks do not recognize borders. Drought in one part of the region can affect food markets in another. Glacier retreat changes river regimes far beyond mountain areas. Dust storms, heatwaves, and extreme rainfall can affect several countries at once. Joint adaptation is therefore a practical necessity.

The IPCC stresses that around 3.3 to 3.6 billion people worldwide live in conditions of high vulnerability to climate change. It also emphasizes that the vulnerability of people and ecosystems is interconnected: the degradation of ecosystems increases risks for people, while social vulnerability reduces societies’ ability to adapt.

For Central and South Asia, this means that resilience must be built across several dimensions at once: water, food, energy, environment, and society. Food and environmental security cannot be strengthened without water. Infrastructure cannot be modernized without climate forecasts. Risks cannot be reduced without trust and information exchange.

Termez as a Place for Climate Partnership

The choice of Termez has both historical and practical significance. Termez is Uzbekistan’s southern gateway and a natural bridge between Central and South Asia. In today’s conditions, this role acquires new meaning: the city is becoming a symbol not only of transport and trade connectivity, but also of climate partnership.

Afghanistan has a particularly important role. The idea of the Termez Dialogue implies the need for the gradual integration of Afghanistan into regional economic, transport, humanitarian, and climate processes with the support of the international community. In the climate agenda, this is especially meaningful: without Afghanistan’s participation, it is impossible to build genuinely sustainable connectivity between Central and South Asia.

What the Termez Dialogue Can Deliver

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform for launching several practical areas of cooperation.

First, the exchange of climate and hydrological data, including forecasts of droughts, floods, glacier changes, and dust storms.

Second, the joint promotion of early warning systems, so that countries can prepare in advance for extreme weather events.

Third, the development of climate-resilient agriculture: water-saving technologies, drought-resistant crops, digital services for farmers, and the restoration of pastures and soils.

Fourth, ecosystem-based adaptation — the restoration of forests, wetlands, mountain and desert ecosystems that themselves serve as natural protection against climate risks.

Fifth, climate-resilient infrastructure — from transport corridors and logistics centres to energy facilities and rapidly growing cities.

From a Common Challenge to Shared Resilience

The main value of the Termez Dialogue is that it allows the climate agenda to be discussed not in the language of alarm, but in the language of joint solutions. Central and South Asia can not only exchange risk assessments, but also create common adaptation mechanisms: from scientific networks and pilot projects to investment programmes and regional standards for resilient infrastructure.

The new climate agenda of the Termez Dialogue is part of the larger idea of connectivity. Genuine connectivity is not only about roads, trade, and energy corridors. It is also about the capacity of countries to jointly protect ecosystems, human health, and the future of coming generations. The Termez Dialogue can become the space where Central and South Asia move from recognizing their shared vulnerability to building shared resilience.