For decades, Afghanistan was perceived primarily as a source of instability, geopolitical rivalry and security threats. In recent years, however, the regional agenda surrounding Afghanistan has gradually been shifting. Increasingly, expert and diplomatic circles in the Central Asian states are discussing not only the question of security but also Afghanistan’s potential as a transport, energy and trade corridor capable of linking Central and South Asia.

In this context, the «Termez Dialogue»^[1] acquires particular significance as a platform symbolizing the transition from a policy of isolation to a pragmatic model of regional interaction. For Uzbekistan and its neighbors, the issue is no longer merely the stabilization of Afghanistan, but the formation of a new geoeconomic architecture for Eurasia.

From a Geopolitical Buffer to a Geoeconomic Bridge

Historically, Afghanistan lay at the crossroads of major trade routes connecting the East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, however, the country became a space of geopolitical confrontation among world powers rather than a territory of cooperation.

Today the situation is gradually changing under the influence of several factors at once. Firstly, global logistics is undergoing a profound transformation. Geopolitical tension, sanctions restrictions and crises affecting traditional transport routes are forcing states to seek new paths for trade and transit. Secondly, the Central Asian states are increasingly striving to diversify their foreign economic ties and reduce their dependence on a limited number of transport directions.

Against this backdrop, Afghanistan is acquiring new significance as the shortest overland route capable of providing the Central Asian states with access to the ports of the Indian Ocean through the territory of Pakistan.        Whereas the Afghan factor was once viewed primarily through the lens of threats, today growing attention is being paid to its transit potential.

Of particular importance in this regard is the project of the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor^[2]. Initially, the principal route was considered to be Termez – Mazar-i-Sharif – Kabul – Peshawar. However, by 2025 the states of the region moved^[3] to elaborating a new direction: Termez – Naibabad – Maidan Shahr – Logar – Kharlachi. This route implies access to the Pakistani railway network through the Kharlachi border crossing and is regarded as more realistic in terms of security, cost, and implementation timelines.

The realization of this project could substantially reshape^[4] the transport geography of the region. For the Central Asian states, this would mean: a reduction in cargo delivery times; a decrease in transport costs; access to the new markets of South Asia; an expansion of export opportunities; a strengthening of the region’s transit potential.

Especially important is the fact that this concerns access to the South Asian market, with a population of nearly two billion people. For the export-oriented economies of Central Asia, this opens up fundamentally new prospects.

Equally important are the energy projects passing through Afghanistan. Among them are CASA-1000 and the TAPI gas pipeline, both intended to facilitate electricity and natural gas supplies between Central and South Asia.

These processes reflect a broader transformation of regional politics: states increasingly view Afghanistan not only as a source of risk but also as an important element of the transport architecture of Eurasia. Priority is shifting more and more from politically symbolic objectives toward the pragmatic logic of transit, connectivity, and economic efficiency.

Termez — the Southern Gateway of Central Asia

A special role in shaping the new regional interaction is played by Termez - the southernmost city of Uzbekistan, which is gradually turning into an important logistical, diplomatic, and humanitarian center. Its significance is reinforced by its unique geographical position: the city lies in the immediate proximity of the Afghan border, connected to it by a bridge across the Amudarya river, across which hundreds of cargo trucks and substantial flows of humanitarian aid and commercial goods pass daily^[5].

In logistical terms, Termez relies on developed infrastructure, including an international transport and logistics hub and a rail connection with the Afghan city of Hairatan, through which millions of tons of cargo are transshipped each year. This corridor is considered one of the most stable and manageable routes of regional trade with Afghanistan.

An additional dimension of Termez’s role is formed by its humanitarian component: the city operates^[6] as a platform for coordinating international assistance to Afghanistan, where deliveries of food, medicine, and basic goods are regularly carried out with the participation of international organizations. In 2025, the hub was incorporated into the UNHCR Global Supply Network, through which humanitarian aid shipments worth more than $500 million are distributed annually^[7].

At the same time, through Termez, Uzbekistan is actively promoting the concept of regional connectivity, in which Afghanistan is viewed not as a peripheral zone of instability but as a transit bridge capable of linking the markets of Central and South Asia. In this context, Termez is becoming not merely a border town, but an infrastructural and politico-economic node of a new regional architecture founded on pragmatism, trade interdependence, and phased integration.

In this context, Uzbekistan has attempted to institutionalize this Forum. Thus, in 2025 the international forum “Termez Dialogue” was held in Termez, devoted to questions of peace, stability, and economic interaction with Afghanistan. It was attended by representatives of the Central and South Asian states, as well as international organizations, including UN structures. The forum became one of the first attempts to institutionalize the discussion of Afghanistan precisely as an economic partner of the region.

Earlier, in 2021, Uzbekistan initiated^[8] the international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities,” held in Tashkent. One of the central themes of the event was the role of Afghanistan as a transit link between the two macro-regions. The conference was attended by representatives of more than 40 states and international organizations, which underscored the global interest in the Uzbek initiative.

The Termez Dialogue as a New Model of Regionalism

Under present-day conditions, the “Termez Dialogue” acquires significance not only as a diplomatic platform but also as a symbol of a new model of regional interaction.

What is at issue is the formation of an approach in which the states of the region strive to build mechanisms of cooperation independently, proceeding above all from common economic interests and mutual infrastructural interdependence.

In this sense, Afghanistan is gradually becoming not an object of external administration but a potential participant in a new system of regional connectivity.

For Central Asia, the development of the southern direction means an expansion of strategic autonomy, a diversification of foreign economic routes, and a strengthening of its own agency in international relations.

It is precisely for this reason that the future of Afghanistan is increasingly viewed not only as a question of security but also as a question of regional integration, logistics and geoeconomics.

Conclusion

Today Afghanistan stands at a historical crossroads. The country may either remain a space of chronic instability or gradually be transformed into a vital transport and economic bridge between Central and South Asia.

To a large extent, the outcome will depend on the ability of the regional states to construct a long-term strategy of cooperation founded not only on questions of security but also on the development of infrastructure, trade, and mutual economic interest.

In this process, Termez is already becoming one of the key centers of the new Eurasian interaction - a space in which the transition from geopolitical rivalry to geoeconomic partnership is taking shape.

Aziza Mukhammedova

Research Fellow

Center for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies at the

Institute for Advanced International Studies

[1]  https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/21/central-asian-countries-push-for-regional-development-at-termez-dialogue

[2] https://pakistan.mfa.uz/ru/news/trans-afghan-corridor-a-new-bridge-connecting-central-asia-with-the-world-1

[3] https://kun.uz/en/news/2025/07/18/uzbekistan-afghanistan-and-pakistan-agree-to-develop-new-railway-corridor

[4] https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/uzbekistan-and-the-new-realities-of-trans-afghan-trade/

[5] https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-offers-to-act-as-hub-for-afghanistan-aid

[6] https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/uzbekistan-steps-support-neighbor-afghanistan-critical-humanitarian-juncture

[7] https://iica.uz/ru/news/2025/02/13/termiz-logistik-habi-bmtning-global-yetkazib-berish-tarmogiga-qoshildi

[8] https://www.uzembassy.uk/news/990