For decades, Afghanistan was perceived primarily as a source of instability, geopolitical rivalry and security threats. In recent years, however, the regional agenda surrounding Afghanistan has gradually been shifting. Increasingly, expert and diplomatic circles in the Central Asian states are discussing not only the question of security but also Afghanistan’s potential as a transport, energy and trade corridor capable of linking Central and South Asia.

In this context, the «Termez Dialogue»^[1] acquires particular significance as a platform symbolizing the transition from a policy of isolation to a pragmatic model of regional interaction. For Uzbekistan and its neighbors, the issue is no longer merely the stabilization of Afghanistan, but the formation of a new geoeconomic architecture for Eurasia.

From a Geopolitical Buffer to a Geoeconomic Bridge

Historically, Afghanistan lay at the crossroads of major trade routes connecting the East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, however, the country became a space of geopolitical confrontation among world powers rather than a territory of cooperation.

Today the situation is gradually changing under the influence of several factors at once. Firstly, global logistics is undergoing a profound transformation. Geopolitical tension, sanctions restrictions and crises affecting traditional transport routes are forcing states to seek new paths for trade and transit. Secondly, the Central Asian states are increasingly striving to diversify their foreign economic ties and reduce their dependence on a limited number of transport directions.

Against this backdrop, Afghanistan is acquiring new significance as the shortest overland route capable of providing the Central Asian states with access to the ports of the Indian Ocean through the territory of Pakistan.        Whereas the Afghan factor was once viewed primarily through the lens of threats, today growing attention is being paid to its transit potential.

Of particular importance in this regard is the project of the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor^[2]. Initially, the principal route was considered to be Termez – Mazar-i-Sharif – Kabul – Peshawar. However, by 2025 the states of the region moved^[3] to elaborating a new direction: Termez – Naibabad – Maidan Shahr – Logar – Kharlachi. This route implies access to the Pakistani railway network through the Kharlachi border crossing and is regarded as more realistic in terms of security, cost, and implementation timelines.

The realization of this project could substantially reshape^[4] the transport geography of the region. For the Central Asian states, this would mean: a reduction in cargo delivery times; a decrease in transport costs; access to the new markets of South Asia; an expansion of export opportunities; a strengthening of the region’s transit potential.

Especially important is the fact that this concerns access to the South Asian market, with a population of nearly two billion people. For the export-oriented economies of Central Asia, this opens up fundamentally new prospects.

Equally important are the energy projects passing through Afghanistan. Among them are CASA-1000 and the TAPI gas pipeline, both intended to facilitate electricity and natural gas supplies between Central and South Asia.

These processes reflect a broader transformation of regional politics: states increasingly view Afghanistan not only as a source of risk but also as an important element of the transport architecture of Eurasia. Priority is shifting more and more from politically symbolic objectives toward the pragmatic logic of transit, connectivity, and economic efficiency.

Termez — the Southern Gateway of Central Asia

A special role in shaping the new regional interaction is played by Termez - the southernmost city of Uzbekistan, which is gradually turning into an important logistical, diplomatic, and humanitarian center. Its significance is reinforced by its unique geographical position: the city lies in the immediate proximity of the Afghan border, connected to it by a bridge across the Amudarya river, across which hundreds of cargo trucks and substantial flows of humanitarian aid and commercial goods pass daily^[5].

In logistical terms, Termez relies on developed infrastructure, including an international transport and logistics hub and a rail connection with the Afghan city of Hairatan, through which millions of tons of cargo are transshipped each year. This corridor is considered one of the most stable and manageable routes of regional trade with Afghanistan.

An additional dimension of Termez’s role is formed by its humanitarian component: the city operates^[6] as a platform for coordinating international assistance to Afghanistan, where deliveries of food, medicine, and basic goods are regularly carried out with the participation of international organizations. In 2025, the hub was incorporated into the UNHCR Global Supply Network, through which humanitarian aid shipments worth more than $500 million are distributed annually^[7].

At the same time, through Termez, Uzbekistan is actively promoting the concept of regional connectivity, in which Afghanistan is viewed not as a peripheral zone of instability but as a transit bridge capable of linking the markets of Central and South Asia. In this context, Termez is becoming not merely a border town, but an infrastructural and politico-economic node of a new regional architecture founded on pragmatism, trade interdependence, and phased integration.

In this context, Uzbekistan has attempted to institutionalize this Forum. Thus, in 2025 the international forum “Termez Dialogue” was held in Termez, devoted to questions of peace, stability, and economic interaction with Afghanistan. It was attended by representatives of the Central and South Asian states, as well as international organizations, including UN structures. The forum became one of the first attempts to institutionalize the discussion of Afghanistan precisely as an economic partner of the region.

Earlier, in 2021, Uzbekistan initiated^[8] the international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities,” held in Tashkent. One of the central themes of the event was the role of Afghanistan as a transit link between the two macro-regions. The conference was attended by representatives of more than 40 states and international organizations, which underscored the global interest in the Uzbek initiative.

The Termez Dialogue as a New Model of Regionalism

Under present-day conditions, the “Termez Dialogue” acquires significance not only as a diplomatic platform but also as a symbol of a new model of regional interaction.

What is at issue is the formation of an approach in which the states of the region strive to build mechanisms of cooperation independently, proceeding above all from common economic interests and mutual infrastructural interdependence.

In this sense, Afghanistan is gradually becoming not an object of external administration but a potential participant in a new system of regional connectivity.

For Central Asia, the development of the southern direction means an expansion of strategic autonomy, a diversification of foreign economic routes, and a strengthening of its own agency in international relations.

It is precisely for this reason that the future of Afghanistan is increasingly viewed not only as a question of security but also as a question of regional integration, logistics and geoeconomics.

Conclusion

Today Afghanistan stands at a historical crossroads. The country may either remain a space of chronic instability or gradually be transformed into a vital transport and economic bridge between Central and South Asia.

To a large extent, the outcome will depend on the ability of the regional states to construct a long-term strategy of cooperation founded not only on questions of security but also on the development of infrastructure, trade, and mutual economic interest.

In this process, Termez is already becoming one of the key centers of the new Eurasian interaction - a space in which the transition from geopolitical rivalry to geoeconomic partnership is taking shape.

Aziza Mukhammedova

Research Fellow

Center for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies at the

Institute for Advanced International Studies

[1]  https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/21/central-asian-countries-push-for-regional-development-at-termez-dialogue

[2] https://pakistan.mfa.uz/ru/news/trans-afghan-corridor-a-new-bridge-connecting-central-asia-with-the-world-1

[3] https://kun.uz/en/news/2025/07/18/uzbekistan-afghanistan-and-pakistan-agree-to-develop-new-railway-corridor

[4] https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/uzbekistan-and-the-new-realities-of-trans-afghan-trade/

[5] https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-offers-to-act-as-hub-for-afghanistan-aid

[6] https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/uzbekistan-steps-support-neighbor-afghanistan-critical-humanitarian-juncture

[7] https://iica.uz/ru/news/2025/02/13/termiz-logistik-habi-bmtning-global-yetkazib-berish-tarmogiga-qoshildi

[8] https://www.uzembassy.uk/news/990

On the eve of the 34th anniversary of our country's independence, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund has finalised the 2025 consultations in accordance with Article IV of the IMF Agreement. The main conclusion on the essence of the ongoing reforms is positive prospects for Uzbekistan's economic development against the backdrop of continued progress in the transition to a market economy. According to the published document, economic indicators remain strong, including sustainable growth rates, reduction of the consolidated budget deficit, current account deficit and sufficient level of international reserves.

Successful and effective implementation of structural reforms, according to the Fund's specialists, allows us to conclude that the prospects are favourable. Against the background of a high degree of uncertainty in global trade policy, the IMF baseline scenario predicts that real GDP growth will remain stably high in the coming years. Such trends are the result of economic openness, industrialisation, active investment policy and support for the formation of export potential of promising industries.

The set of reforms and effectively implemented decisions is consistent with available internal resources and reserves for long-term sustainable development of the country and regions. The course towards irreversible market transformations makes it possible to skilfully combine the instruments of targeted state support and opportunities for entrepreneurial initiative on the way to building a New Uzbekistan.

In recent years, as a result of openness and growing confidence in our country, there has been a progressive increase in capital investment. In 2017-2024, the total volume of foreign investment absorbed exceeded $113 billion. Foreign direct investment and loans account for more than 80 per cent of them. Activity in attracting finance is observed in the leading industries and the fuel and energy complex, which has a corresponding impact on the acceleration of industrialisation processes in almost all regions.

Increasing investment cooperation with China, Russia, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, the USA, the UK and other countries is becoming a source of attraction of advanced technological solutions and expertise, management methods, localisation of production and strengthening the export potential of promising industries and regions of Uzbekistan. Attracted resources are mainly invested in the technological re-equipment and modernisation of existing production facilities and the creation of new production facilities that did not exist before.

Over the past eight years, investment programmes have launched more than 96,000 projects worth about $100 billion, creating 1.8 million jobs. In 2024, compared to 2017, the value of investment projects put into operation increased almost eightfold, and the number of jobs grew 2.6 times.

We emphasise the factor of active involvement of our Head of State in this process. As a result of visits and top-level events, 366 investment agreements worth $75 billion have been reached since the beginning of this year. In particular, this year road maps have been approved for 222 investment projects worth about $45 billion.

Within the framework of the IV Tashkent International Investment Forum (June this year), agreements were reached on investments worth more than $30 billion (for the implementation of 144 joint projects). In April 2025, on the margins of the 5th International Industrial Exhibition "INNOPROM. Central Asia", held in Tashkent, within the framework of the 43 investment agreements reached, it is planned to attract an additional billion dollars to the industrial sector of the country.

In recent years, there has been an active practice of holding events to inform the international community about opportunities for the implementation of joint projects. Thus, this year, forums were held in 13 foreign countries as part of the Investors' Day of Uzbekistan, attended by representatives of 700 well-known foreign companies. More than 200 investment projects worth six billion dollars were presented to potential partners.

Among the important elements of Uzbekistan's modern industrial policy is localisation of production of high quality and competitive products, reduction of imports of finished goods and components. In accordance with the Localisation Programme, which included about 10 thousand projects, almost 300 trillion soums worth of products have been produced over the period 2020-2024. This led to import substitution in the amount of about $25 billion. The Localisation Programme allowed the creation of new production facilities for previously imported goods, contributed to changing the sectoral structure of industry and reducing dependence on external supplies by expanding the range of products and services.

THE NUMBER OF EXPORTERS IS GROWING

The formation of an export orientation has become one of the main conditions for success in implementing the plans outlined for Uzbekistan's industrialisation. Over 2017-2024, the total volume of exports exceeded $132 billion. It is noteworthy that the average annual growth rate of the country's exports over the period was 12-23 per cent. As a result of systematic and targeted support for exporters, the geography of exports of domestic products expanded by 55 states in 2024 and reached 186 countries over the past eight years. Last year, the number of exporting enterprises increased by 3,143 and their total number totalled 7,343.

Only due to the increase in the share of exports of higher value-added products in 2024, shipments to foreign markets increased by a billion dollars. Entering new promising markets, in turn, requires a significant improvement in the quality of manufactured products and their compliance with international standards. As part of the GSP+ programme, we implemented a set of organisational and technical measures to obtain Global G.A.P., Organic, OEKO-Tex, BSCI, CE marking certificates for our products and transition to ISO standards at more than five thousand enterprises. This made it possible last year alone to provide additional exports of 617 types of products worth $1.4 billion to the European Union.

Transition to more demanding standards and technological processes makes it possible to achieve the goals of producing and selling products of a completely different quality in new markets. Export supplies of goods to developed countries confirm the correctness of the chosen strategy, demonstrating its undeniable results. For example, due to the expansion of export geography and correct response to the conjuncture, the selling prices of Uzbekistan's fruit and vegetable products last year increased by an average of 14 per cent.

The industrial trend of economic development, having ensured a technological leap in a number of sectors, has had a significant impact on the evolution of the commodity nomenclature of exports. Quite recently, Uzbekistan was associated as a country with a monoculture of cotton, and its products were practically the sole leader of exports with absolute dominance of raw materials. In this regard, according to IMF experts, there is a decline in the share of cotton fibre exports from 0.2 per cent of GDP to zero from 2021 in the long term. Today Uzbekistan exports more and more high-tech products, and by 2024 its nomenclature has reached four thousand items.

For example, compared to 2017, exports of primary goods fell by 22 per cent last year, while the share of exports of finished goods increased 3.3 times, semi-finished goods - 4.4 times, and exports of services increased 2.9 times. At the same time, the transition to advanced processing of cotton contributed to the doubling of exports of garment and knitwear products to one billion dollars. This allowed our country to become the second supplier of textile products in the Russian market.

Domestic products are becoming a recognisable national brand, enjoying trust and popularity among foreign consumers. Last year, the goods of about 300 Uzbek enterprises received registration on the well-known electronic commercial platforms Alibaba, Wildberries and Ozon. As a result, sales of our companies reached $680 million.

At the end of the first half of 2025, the volume of exports grew by 33 per cent year-on-year and approached $17 billion. Since the beginning of the year, 1,557 domestic companies have been added to the exporters, accounting for $650 million in shipments.

The steady trend away from raw material exports towards finished high-tech products and services (tourism, transport, construction, IT and others) continues.

INVESTMENT DIALOGUE

It should be noted that our country is building and effectively operating an institutional environment to address strategically important issues of industrial development with a clear export orientation by attracting foreign capital. For this purpose, the relevant ministry and state agencies responsible for this complex of issues, as well as organisations promoting interaction between the state and the private sector have been established.

The Council of Foreign Investors under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan is an institutional platform for direct dialogue between the government and investors (including international financial institutions). The Council's work as an advisory and consultative body effectively promotes the attraction of foreign direct investment in priority sectors of the economy and the organization of quality business dialogue, taking into account international best practices.

The Council operates under the patronage of the President of Uzbekistan, who personally attends meetings of this body. In order to organise systematic work on attracting investments, the relevant decree of the leader of the country was adopted to implement the agreements reached at the last meeting of the Council. The document also implies ensuring the systematic implementation of initiatives and proposals put forward by the participants of the meeting, as well as measures to improve the activities of the Secretariat of the Council of Foreign Investors.

In parallel with the formation of an effective institutional environment, consistent work is being done to improve the legislative framework to ensure advanced industrial development, intensify investment processes and expand the export potential of industries and regions of the country. This process is under the close attention and direct involvement of Uzbek parliamentarians. As a result, in recent years more than 500 functions of the State in regulating business have been abolished, and about 70 functions have been transferred to public-private partnerships and outsourced to the private sector. Seventy-two types of licensed activities and 40 permits have been legally abolished to improve the business climate and simplify the business environment.

POSITIVE ASSESSMENT

These transformations are positively assessed by foreign rating agencies and organisations. Thus, according to the Index of Regulatory Restrictions on Foreign Direct Investment (Organisation for Economic Development and Cooperation), our country has the best rating among the Central Asian region. This year, the country's performance on the Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom, the indicators ‘Freedom of Trade’ and ‘Freedom of Investment’ has improved considerably.

Let us return to the assessment of the prospects of dynamics and effectiveness of reforms based on the results of the recent IMF consultations with Uzbekistan in accordance with Article IV of the IMF Agreement. According to the Fund's outcome document, the opportunities arising from accelerated structural reforms, increased income and capital inflows, and favourable commodity price dynamics are positive for Uzbekistan's sustainable development.

Analysis of industrialisation indicators, investment activity and expansion of export indicators testifies to the real effectiveness of the ‘Uzbekistan - 2030’ Strategy and a set of accompanying measures to strengthen the country's economic potential and international standing. This, in turn, becomes a demonstration of the irreversibility of reforms aimed at building an independent New Uzbekistan.

Deputy of the Legislative Chamber

of the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan,

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor Durbek Akhmedov

Modern Central Asia is becoming a space of sustainable growth and mutual trust. The countries of the region demonstrate a strong commitment to building balanced relations with global partners, prioritizing practical initiatives in trade, energy, transport, and innovation. One of the key formats shaping this new architecture is the “C5+1” platform, which unites the Central Asian states and the United States.

Regional Consolidation: Dialogue Based on Equality and Pragmatism

In recent years, the “C5+1” format has evolved from a diplomatic mechanism into an effective platform for coordination and implementation of joint projects. The latest ministerial meeting in Samarkand, attended by the Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Laziz Kudratov, demonstrated a high level of trust and a shared focus on tangible results.

Key topics on the Samarkand agenda included food security, climate resilience, development of green and digital economies, diversification of transport corridors, and deepening industrial cooperation.

Following the meeting, memorandums were signed on decarbonization and digitalization of customs procedures - a step that paves the way for harmonized trade rules, easier exports, and increased investment inflows into the region.

Central Asia: From Fragmentation to an Integrated Economic Space

The figures speak for themselves: the total foreign trade turnover of Central Asian countries has reached $220 billion, almost doubling since 2017, while mutual investments have grown 5.6 times. The region’s combined GDP increased by 40% over the past five years to exceed $406 billion.

These indicators reflect not only growth but also a qualitative shift - from isolated initiatives to a coordinated regional development strategy.

Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan: Industrial and Logistics Core

The Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan partnership exemplifies a new model of integration. Between January and August 2025, mutual trade reached $3.03 billion, up by 15%. Projects exceeding $7 billion are under implementation across engineering, agriculture, construction, and energy sectors. Over 1,100 enterprises with Kazakh capital operate in Uzbekistan, creating jobs and new export niches.

Uzbekistan - Tajikistan: Transport and Energy Bridge

Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are rapidly strengthening railway and energy cooperation. In 2024, cargo traffic between the two countries reached 10 million tons, while regular passenger flights and a joint investment company with a $100 million capital were launched. These are not just numbers - they represent an architecture of trust that enables joint industrial and agricultural clusters.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan: Corridors of Growth

Cooperation with Turkmenistan is expanding in energy, logistics, and industry. In 2024, bilateral trade exceeded $1.14 billion, and the Shavat - Dashoguz border zone is evolving into a hub of trade and joint manufacturing. A localization project for repairing Turkmen wagons in Andijan is a vivid example of practical industrial integration.

Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan: A “Roadmap” for the Future

The interstate program until 2030 and the Border Regions Council ensure steady progress. From January to August 2025, trade turnover approached $600 million, while Uzbekistan’s exports grew by nearly 80%. New logistics routes are being developed to reduce transport costs and enhance business competitiveness.

“C5+1” as a Catalyst for Development

Participation in the “C5+1” framework gives regional integration new depth - aligning national interests with global sustainability trends.

The United States and regional partners are building long-term cooperation in green energy, resilient supply chains, infrastructure modernization, and human-capital development.

Special attention is given to unified standards for digital trade, environmental management, and logistics technologies, making Central Asia a vital link in Eurasian value chains.

Benefits for the Region and Uzbekistan

For Central Asia, the “C5+1” format provides:

• Investment and technology: opportunities to attract foreign partners for renewable energy, raw-material processing, and digital transformation;
• New markets: expanded export opportunities through unified customs and trade standards;
• Energy security: development of interconnected grids and energy-storage infrastructure;
• Human capital: education, internships, and exchanges with leading global companies.

For Uzbekistan, the advantages are clear:

• Expanded export potential through access to new transport routes;
• Technology localization and industrial partnerships with neighbors;
• Institutional stability and strengthened position as a regional integrator;
• Inflow of direct investment supported by uniform rules and a stable macroeconomic environment.

Conclusion: From Geography to the Economy of the Future

Central Asia is steadily transforming from a “crossroads of geography” into a region of synergy. The “C5+1” format has become a framework connecting the efforts of regional and global partners into a unified development strategy - based on trust, mutual benefit, and sustainable growth.

Comprehensive monitoring of key business activity indicators across the regions of Uzbekistan shows growth across all major metrics.

According to оперативные данные from the Tax and Customs Committees, the Central Bank, and the Uzbek Republican Commodity Exchange, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms conducts ongoing monitoring of regional business activity in the Republic of Uzbekistan.

As of January this year, tax revenues demonstrated stable positive dynamics, increasing by 39.2% compared to the same period last year.

The most notable increase in revenues was recorded in the Syrdarya, Navoi, Khorezm, and Kashkadarya regions, where growth rates averaged approximately 49%.

Personal income tax revenues increased by 15.1%, property tax revenues by 19.6%, and land tax revenues by 20.3%.

Customs payments grew by 19.8% year-on-year. The highest growth rates were observed in the Navoi, Jizzakh, and Namangan regions, averaging approximately 67%.

Stable positive dynamics were also recorded in the Samarkand region and the Republic of Karakalpakstan, where revenues increased on average by 31%.

According to the analysis of foreign economic indicators, exports of goods increased by 19.5%. The most significant growth in export deliveries was observed in the Tashkent and Navoi regions, increasing on average by 47%.

At the same time, a notable expansion in lending activity was recorded. During the reporting period, the volume of loans issued by commercial banks increased by 2.7%. The highest growth was observed in the Samarkand, Bukhara, and Khorezm regions, averaging approximately 58%.

The active development of the private sector is confirmed by a significant increase in the number of newly registered business entities. In January 2026, a total of 7,116 new enterprises were registered. The largest number of new business entities was recorded in the city of Tashkent (1,712). Among the regions, the leaders were Tashkent region (735), Samarkand region (610), and Khorezm region (550).

The volume of transactions on the Uzbek Republican Commodity Exchange increased 1.8 times. Growth in exchange activity was recorded in most regions of the country, particularly in the Syrdarya region, where activity increased 11.1 times. In addition, growth was observed in the Khorezm, Surkhandarya, Bukhara, Jizzakh, and Kashkadarya regions, averaging 6.5 times.

Sultonmurod Ozodov,

Center for Economic Research and Reforms

Cooperation between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan in the field of ecology and environmental protection is reaching a new level, encompassing both bilateral initiatives and active engagement on international platforms. Humanity finally discovered that poisoning the planet might have consequences. Remarkable timing.

The foundation of this partnership remains the Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection, signed on September 11, 2008, in Baku. Today, the two sides continue to work on a new intergovernmental agreement intended to make cooperation more systematic and strategic. At the same time, regular exchanges of experience and information are taking place through international conferences, meetings, and platforms, including the structures of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Contacts within climate forums have gained particular importance. During COP28, representatives of the two countries discussed the transition toward a sustainable and resource-efficient economy within the Economic Cooperation Organization region. The dialogue later continued on the sidelines of the United Nations Environment Assembly in Nairobi, where the parties focused on preparations for COP29, held in Baku.

COP29 itself became an important milestone in deepening regional cooperation. During the conference, the first meeting of environmental ministers of the Organization of Turkic States was held, resulting in the signing of a corresponding declaration. In addition, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan joined the regional “Glaciers to Farms” program, implemented with the support of the Asian Development Bank and the Green Climate Fund. The program aims to mobilize $3.5 billion to improve the resilience of agriculture and infrastructure in the face of glacier melting.

Educational cooperation also remains an important area of partnership. Young environmental activists from Azerbaijan participated in international environmental camps in Samarkand organized with the involvement of the International Public Foundation “Zamin.”

An active dialogue is also being conducted at the level of профильных ведомств. In 2024, an Azerbaijani delegation visited the National Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Ecology and Climate Change during the first Uzbek-Azerbaijani Media Forum, where the parties exchanged experience in environmental communication and countering disinformation. Because apparently even climate change now has to survive internet arguments.

Future prospects for cooperation include several promising areas. These include exchanging experience in air quality monitoring and the development of green urbanization, expanding scientific research through the Central Asian University for Environmental and Climate Change Studies (Green University), and cooperation in the management of protected natural areas.

The parties are also considering the establishment of a joint working group and the completion of the new intergovernmental agreement. Additionally, they propose intensifying cooperation within international environmental conventions, including Azerbaijan’s accession to the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals.

Special attention is also being given to upcoming international events. Azerbaijan will participate in the 8th Assembly of the Global Environment Facility and will present its National Pavilion at the Eco Expo Central Asia 2026 exhibition, which will take place in Samarkand.

Thus, Uzbek-Azerbaijani cooperation in the environmental sphere demonstrates steady momentum and covers a broad range of areas, from climate policy and scientific research to youth initiatives and international cooperation.

The resilience of Finland’s development model and the dynamism of Uzbekistan’s reforms provide a solid foundation for deepening bilateral cooperation. Finland combines technological leadership, efficient governance, and a robust social policy. Its mixed model of development with strong public regulation and an active private sector is based on long-term planning, technological excellence, and social equality.
A balanced economic policy keeps inflation at 2–3%, while maintaining a high AA+ credit rating. The national research infrastructure is funded as a key element of state strategy. Total spending on research and development exceeds 3% of GDP, reaching €8.4 billion in 2023, up 6.3% from the previous year. The contributions came from the public sector, universities, and private business.
Finland’s economy remains open and export-oriented. In 2024, foreign trade reached €146.5 billion, including €72.2 billion in exports and €74.3 billion in imports. Its technological specialization, advanced digital environment, and high human capital create a predictable setting for investors.
At the same time, Uzbekistan has become a driver of reform in Central Asia over the past eight years. The country’s GDP has doubled to reach $115 billion. Since 2017, fixed capital investments have totaled $240 billion, with over $130 billion coming from foreign sources. International reserves exceed $48 billion. The structure of production has evolved: the share of industry rose from 20% to 26%, services from 44% to 47%, and labor productivity increased by 45%. Regulatory reforms expanded the space for private capital, while transport and energy infrastructure projects established a new foundation for industrialization and export growth.
As a result of these reforms, Uzbekistan’s trade with the European Union has entered a stable growth trajectory. Between 2017 and 2024, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and the EU increased 2.4 times from $2.6 billion to $6.4 billion. In 2024, exports rose by nearly 27% compared to 2023, while imports remained at a comparable level.
A New Stage of Political and Economic Relations
Particularly strong momentum has emerged in Uzbek–Finnish relations. Regular high-level contacts have given fresh impetus to the bilateral dialogue. On 12 November 2024, on the sidelines of the COP29 Summit in Baku, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with President of Finland Alexander Stubb. The two leaders discussed prospects for cooperation in the fields of the green economy, renewable energy, innovation, and education, and exchanged views on sustainable development and climate policy.
The political dialogue continued with a telephone conversation on 9 September 2025, during which the heads of state explored ways to expand economic and humanitarian cooperation. Furthermore, an official visit of the President of Finland to Uzbekistan is expected in late October 2025, aimed at consolidating earlier agreements and opening new areas of partnership.
This process is creating a favorable foundation for strengthening trade and economic ties, introducing Finnish technologies, and attracting investment into Uzbekistan’s priority sectors. From 2019 to 2024, bilateral trade more than tripled to reach $152 million. Uzbekistan’s exports to Finland increased almost 17 times to $4.73 million, while imports from Finland nearly tripled to $147 million. Over the past year alone, Uzbek exports to Finland grew by 56%, and imports rose 3.2 times. From January to August 2025, trade volume exceeded $68 million.
Trade flows reflect each country’s comparative advantages: Uzbekistan supplies industrial goods and services, while Finland exports machinery, transport equipment, chemicals, and food products.
Prospects for Cooperation
The emerging agenda for trade and economic cooperation draws on Finland’s experience in engineering, clean technologies, digital healthcare, education, and R&D management – areas closely aligned with Uzbekistan’s goals for technological renewal, energy efficiency, and human capital development. At the same time, Uzbekistan’s favorable business climate and major infrastructure projects are reducing operational costs for foreign companies.
Given Uzbekistan’s development priorities and conducive investment conditions, there is significant potential to further deepen Uzbek–Finnish cooperation across several areas. According to the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, Uzbekistan’s exports to Finland could expand even in the short term, particularly in sectors where Uzbek producers have existing capacity and advantage – textiles and garments, fruits and nuts, footwear, leather goods, stone and cement products, as well as copper and semi-finished copper products.
Logistics could be organized through the ports of Helsinki and HaminaKotka, with Turku as a potential reserve. Distribution channels could be developed via major retail networks and distributors, including Kesko and S Group. Key success factors include certification under EU standards, stable supply chains, and regular contracts.
Industrial cooperation should move toward deeper processing with full production cycles, for example, in knitwear, wool, and leather, from spinning and dyeing to finished apparel. Potential partners include Finnish companies such as Lapuan Kankurit and Pirtin Kehräämö, as well as the Aalto University School of Arts, Design and Architecture. In agriculture, joint breeding programs using Finnish sheep lines and supported by LUKE (Natural Resources Institute Finland) could strengthen the raw-material base of Uzbekistan’s textile clusters.
In the digital and green transformation sphere, collaboration could extend to telecom infrastructure and critical systems management with companies such as Nokia. In energy, there is potential for cooperation in localizing components for solar installations and storage systems, developing smart grids, and improving generation efficiency in hot climates, with participation from Finnish firms Valoe, Fortum Solar, and Wärtsilä.
For research and materials science, engaging institutions such as VTT and LUT University would help build a sustainable technological and human-resource base in Uzbekistan, while opening new regional export niches.
In mechanical engineering, cooperation could develop with Metso and Valmet on equipment components, servicing, and partial localization. In logistics and cargo handling solutions, Finnish companies Konecranes and Cargotec offer relevant expertise. In climate monitoring and water-chemical solutions, potential partners include Vaisala and Kemira.
A cross-cutting priority remains human capital. Joint programs with the University of Helsinki, Tampere University, and University of Oulu are needed to establish industrial internships and introduce Finnish methods for training engineers, technologists, and quality specialists for high-tech industries.
At the institutional level, further progress will require harmonizing border procedures, launching green corridors, implementing digital customs systems, and ensuring mutual recognition of certificates. It will also be important to develop industrial and agro-processing clusters, logistics hubs, and training programs for workforce development.
In the near future, Uzbek–Finnish cooperation may reach a stable, long-term trajectory. For Finland, Uzbekistan represents a reliable supplier of manufactured goods and components, and a new market for technology and equipment. For Uzbekistan, deeper cooperation provides access to advanced solutions and Northern European distribution channels.
In conclusion, the combination of Finland’s effective governance model, innovation, and environmental responsibility with Uzbekistan’s large-scale reforms creates a strong foundation for joint practical projects in manufacturing, energy, telecommunications, and education. Such a partnership can not only enhance the technological level of Uzbekistan’s economy but also give new quality to Uzbek–Finnish relations – anchored in long-term, sustainable, and mutually beneficial development.

Afzal Artikov,
Chief researcher,
Center for Economic Research and
Reforms under the Administration
of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

The history of mankind demonstrates that great civilizations rest upon a synthesis of intellectual achievements, spiritual values and cultural heritage. Since ancient times, Central Asia has served as a pivotal hub of science, art and philosophy, shaping the foundational elements of a civilization that has influenced the entire world. Today, this profound potential is embodied in a monumental project - Center of Islamic Civilization in Tashkent. This institution does not merely preserve historical artifacts; it serves as a living platform for science, education and spiritual enlightenment.

The project symbolizes a new stage in Uzbekistan’s development - the Third Renaissance - where the past, present and future are unified through intellectual and cultural heritage. The Center of Islamic Civilization demonstrates how spiritual and educational values can serve as the foundation for national revival and international cooperation, attracting researchers, tourists and the global public.

Amir Temur occupies a distinguished place in world history as an outstanding statesman, military commander, and the creator of one of the largest empires of his time. The late 14^th and early 15^th centuries were a period of profound political transformations; against this backdrop, Temur succeeded in uniting vast territories stretching from India to the Middle East, establishing a powerful state with a resilient system of governance.

Diplomacy played a pivotal role in his policy. Amir Temur established contacts with European nations, including France, England and Castile; his victory over the Ottoman Sultan Bayezid I at the Battle of Ankara (1402) shifted the balance of power between the East and the West. The Spanish Ambassador Ruy González de Clavijo, who visited Samarkand in 1404, noted the state’s high level of organization, its advanced infrastructure and profound respect shown to foreign envoys.

Samarkand became the capital of the empire, evolving into a cultural and economic hub where the trade routes of China, India, Europe and the Middle East intersected. The city was distinguished by its multi-ethnic population, a sophisticated handicraft system, magnificent architecture, well-tended gardens, advanced irrigation systems and bustling commercial streets.

Amir Temur also established a unique legal foundation for his empire. According to the “Institutes of Temur” (Tuzuk-i-Temuri), the state rested upon four pillars: counsel, discussion, a deliberate plan and decisiveness. Nine-tenths of state affairs were resolved through consultation and prudent measures, and only one-tenth by the sword. This principle reflects the priority of diplomacy and legal resolutions over military force, emphasizing the balance of justice and resolve in governance.

Temur’s social policy was aimed at ensuring order, justice, and economic growth. He supported handicrafts, trade and agriculture, while maintaining strict oversight over officials and punishing abuses of power. Simultaneously, he cared for the welfare of the populace by resettling skilled artisans and creating the necessary conditions for the sustainable development of the state.

Following the passing of Amir Temur, his successors - the Timurids - continued the development of the state, placing particular emphasis on science, culture and education. This period is referred to as the Second Renaissance of Central Asia, characterized by an intellectual and artistic flourishing comparable to the European Renaissance. The most prominent figure of this era was Mirzo Ulugbek, who established one of the preeminent observatories of his time and made significant contributions to astronomy, mathematics, architecture and the arts. His scholarly works influenced not only Islamic but world civilization, laying the groundwork for future scientific discoveries.

Today, the Timurid legacy is preserved within the Center of Islamic Civilization in Tashkent, which houses unique exhibits demonstrating the cultural and spiritual richness of that era. Among them is a fragment of the Quran transcribed by the calligrapher Umar Aqta for Amir Temur, widely known as the “Baysunghur Quran”. This manuscript represents a triumph of calligraphy over ornamentation: the harmonious, powerful forms of the letters and the precise flow of ink create a magnificent visual impact. The Center preserves a single line of this Quran, allowing visitors to experience the grandeur of Timurid art and understand how the culture of letters shaped the spiritual identity of the state.

A place of particular distinction is held by the Timurid/Mughal talismanic shirt - a protective garment crafted in court workshops to provide the wearer with divine safeguarding and blessings. The dense cotton is entirely covered with Quranic inscriptions, including the Shahada and the 99 Names of Allah, while the back features a verse from Surah Yusuf (12:64): “Indeed, Allah is the best guardian, and He is the most merciful of the merciful”. This shirt symbolizes Divine protection and the wearer’s spiritual connection with the Almighty, reflecting the religious depth and artistic mastery of the Timurid era.

Finally, the key to the sacred Kaaba (dated approximately 1425-1426), crafted from brass with silver inlay and inscriptions, preserves the historical memory of the era and its spiritual significance. Together with other exhibits, it enables contemporary visitors to experience the intellectual and cultural ascent of the Second Renaissance and to realize how the spiritual and educational achievements of the past established the foundation for the development of civilization.

Center of Islamic Civilization in Tashkent is not merely a museum but a living educational platform. The architectural concept of the complex harmoniously integrates Timurid traditions with modern technologies, symbolizing the unity of the past and the present. Its 65-meter dome and four golden gates represent the convergence of all regions of Uzbekistan, evoking a sense of monumentality and historical continuity.

Center’s exposition is structured around the principle of “Civilization – Personalities – Discoveries” and spans key historical epochs: the pre-Islamic period, the First and Second Renaissances, Timurid era and contemporary New Uzbekistan. Visitors can not only observe unique artifacts but also interact with them through VR and AR technologies, holograms and artificial intelligence, making history vibrant and tangible.

Center integrates a diverse range of educational and cultural functions: interactive laboratories, including the “1001 Inventions” for children, a library with a collection of over 200,000 volumes, calligraphy schools, and digital archives. It also serves as a hub for offices of international organizations, including UNESCO, ICESCO, IRCICA and OCIS. This creates a space where traditions and innovations coexist and complement each other, stimulating the advancement of science and culture.

The Timurids and the Baburids - including the fragment of the Quran transcribed by Umar Aqta, the talismanic shirt and the key to the Kaaba - are seamlessly integrated into the exposition, allowing visitors to trace how this historical heritage shaped the intellectual and spiritual potential of the region. Through this approach, Center becomes not merely a repository of knowledge, but a living bridge between the Second and the Third Renaissance, ensuring the continuity of traditions and inspiring new generations toward scientific, cultural and spiritual achievements.

The legacy of Amir Temur and his successors plays a pivotal role in the modern world, particularly in shaping the cultural identity of Uzbekistan and fostering international cultural dialogue.

Firstly, it serves as the cornerstone of national identity. The history of the Timurids demonstrates the high level of statehood, science and culture of the region, while their legal and social traditions, reflected in the “Institutes of Temur”, provide an exemplary model of the balance between justice and resolve in governance.

Secondly, the diplomatic experience of Amir Temur remains highly relevant today. His ability to synchronize military strength with flexible and respectful diplomacy serves as an enduring model for contemporary foreign policy and international cultural engagement.

Thirdly, the cultural heritage of the Timurid dynasty fosters international exchange and tourism development. Architectural monuments in Samarkand, Shakhrisabz and other cities attract scholars and visitors from around the world. Exhibits at the Center of Islamic Civilization - including a Quran fragment transcribed by Umar Akta, talismanic Baburid shirt and the key to the Kaaba - allow contemporary visitors to experience the spiritual and intellectual power of the Second Renaissance firsthand.

In this manner, Center of Islamic Civilization becomes the cornerstone of the Third Renaissance, bridging the past and the present while inspiring a new generation toward scientific and cultural achievements.

Center of Islamic Civilization in Tashkent is not merely a museum, but a living bridge between the past and the future. It integrates the spiritual, cultural, and educational accomplishments of Central Asia, creating a space for scientific research, learning and international cooperation.

The legacy of Amir Temur and the Timurids, reflected in the exhibits and the architectural concept of the Center, demonstrates how spiritual and intellectual values can serve as the foundation for national revival. Quranic fragments, talismanic shirts, ceremonial keys and architectural symbols embody the ideas of Divine protection, science and enlightenment, creating a unique cultural space.

The project serves as the cornerstone of the Third Renaissance of New Uzbekistan, inspiring the modern generation toward achievements in science, education and spiritual sphere. Center of Islamic Civilization is evolving into an intellectual and cultural locomotive for the region, fostering the unification of humanity on the path to peace, harmony, and progress, following the great divine command of “Iqra” - “Read in the name of your Lord”.

Dunyo IA

PRESS RELEASE

International Scientific and Practical Conference dedicated to the 690th   Anniversary of the birth of Sahibkiran Amir Temur

“The image of Sahibkiran Amir Temur,

having become a symbol of our

national statehood, continues to provide

immense spiritual strength to our people

in realizing our identity and restoring

our ancient traditions and values”,

 Shavkat Mirziyoyev

An International Scientific and Practical Conference titled “The role and significance of the civilization of Amir Temur and the Timurids in world history and culture” was organized in the city of Tashkent to mark the 690th anniversary of the birth of Sahibkiran Amir Temur.

This prestigious forum was held at the Center of Islamic Civilization in Uzbekistan, established at the personal initiative of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

This international scientific and practical conference serves as a vital platform for scholarly dialogue, aimed at the profound study of national heritage and its extensive promotion on a global scale. It further seeks to re-evaluate the scientific and spiritual achievements of the Timurid era through the lens of modern science.

The conference was organized at the initiative of the Government of Uzbekistan, in cooperation with several ministries, agencies, research institutions, and international organizations. It featured the participation of prominent local and foreign scholars, historians, Orientalists, art historians, archaeologists and political scientists, alongside distinguished faculty members from prestigious universities.

OPENING CEREMONY

The solemn opening ceremony of the conference was organized at the highest level. It was attended by prominent state and public figures, leading scholars, representatives of international organizations and members of the diplomatic corps. In their addresses, the speakers specifically emphasized the persona of Amir Temur and his pivotal role in establishing traditions of statehood, justice and a strong centralized system of governance.

Furthermore, it was noted that science, culture, and art flourished during the Timurid era, and this legacy continues to serve the progress of world civilization to this day. The conference participants emphasized that such events are of paramount importance for comprehending historical heritage and transmitting it to future generations.

INTERNATIONAL PARTICIPATION

The conference featured leading scholars, historians, Orientalists, archaeologists and political scientists from numerous countries, including Türkiye, France, Italy, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan and others, who engaged in an extensive exchange of scholarly perspectives.

In their reports, the participants presented the findings of scientific research on the history of the Timurid era, public administration, science, culture, architecture and international relations. Foreign experts placed particular emphasis on the global significance of this legacy and its role in the cultural dialogue between European and Asian civilizations.

KEY THEMES AND DISCUSSIONS

The following priority topics were extensively discussed during the conference:

• Amir Temur’s strategy in state administration and military art;
• The development of science and the education system during the Timurid era;
• The role of Samarkand and Herat in world civilization;
• Architectural and urban planning traditions of the Timurid period;
• Manuscripts, miniature art, and cultural heritage;
• International diplomacy and trade relations during the Timurid era;
• The study of the Timurid legacy in modern research.
• Additionally, the conference featured various thematic exhibitions, displays of rare manuscripts and specialized scholarly dialogues.

OBJECTIVES AND SIGNIFICANCE

The primary objective of the conference is to facilitate a comprehensive, evidence-based study of the legacy of Amir Temur and the Timurid era, to further elucidate its role in world civilization and to strengthen international scientific cooperation.

In addition to promoting historical heritage, this event served to educate the younger generation in the spirit of respect for national values, while stimulating scientific research and fostering the formation of new academic disciplines.

At the conclusion of the conference, a set of scientific findings, proposals, and recommendations was developed. It was emphasized that these results will serve as a vital strategic foundation for the future study and promotion of the Timurid legacy.

According to the CERR bank ranking results for 2025, the stable positions of most financial institutions indicate a higher competitiveness threshold across the sector. At the same time, a noticeable reshuffling has emerged within the mid-tier segment.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented an updated Bank Ranking based on the results of the Bank Activity Index for Q4 2025. The study covers 35 commercial banks of the republic, including 20 large financial institutions classified by scale and branch network, and 15 banks categorized as small. The methodology is based on the analysis of 27 indicators, benchmarked against national averages and international standards, including Basel Committee requirements. The ranking serves as an important tool for enhancing transparency and strengthening trust in the financial system. This approach is consistent with international practice and is used by leading financial institutions worldwide.

Financial results for Q4 2025

During the reporting period, total assets of the banking sector amounted to 892.9 trillion soums ($74.2 bn), while liabilities reached 759.8 trillion soums ($63.1 bn). Lending increased by 13%, while deposits grew by 31%. The share of foreign-currency transactions declined, indicating strengthening of the national currency. Net profit reached 13.5 trillion soums ($1.1 bn), which is 57.1% higher than a year earlier. Over the period under review, the share of non-performing loans decreased to 3.5% from 4.3% a year earlier, pointing to improved portfolio quality. At the same time, in some banks this indicator remains above the sector average. Capital adequacy ratios exceed minimum regulatory requirements by more than 1.4 times, confirming the resilience of the banking sector.

Activity ranking of large banks for Q4 2025

The results for Q4 2025 show that sector leaders have maintained stable positions, while reshuffling within the ranking remains limited. The most notable progress was demonstrated by SQB, which climbed three positions. Positive dynamics were also recorded by Davr Bank, Orient Finance Bank, Xalq Bank, and Ipoteka Bank, all of which improved their standings in the overall ranking. At the same time, only two large banks showed a decline in activity. Invest Finance Bank and Aloqa Bank fell by four and three positions in the overall ranking, respectively. Overall, 13 banks retained their positions in the activity ranking, which, amid intensifying competition, reflects the ability of institutions to maintain operational efficiency, adequate liquidity, asset quality, and financial stability.

Dynamics of key indicators

In financial intermediation, Tenge Bank and Ipak Yuli Bank showed a decline in efficiency in attracting and allocating resources, losing four and three positions, respectively. National Bank, Asia Alliance Bank, Anor Bank, BDB, and Mikrokreditbank also dropped by one position in this category. In terms of financial inclusion, a one-position decline was recorded for Orient Finance Bank, Xalq Bank, Agrobank, BDB, and Ipoteka Bank. Regarding asset quality, six large banks registered a decline. Agrobank lost three positions, while National Bank, Trast Bank, Anor Bank, Aloqa Bank, and Asaka Bank each lost two positions. Despite the overall positive profit dynamics in the sector, two banks posted a decline in profitability, namely National Bank and Anor Bank, which fell by two and one positions, respectively. In management efficiency, weaker positions were observed for Mikrokreditbank and Anor Bank, both down two positions. In terms of liquidity, almost one-third of all large banks in the country lost positions, with the sharpest decline recorded by Davr Bank, down six positions, while Agrobank closed the ranking, falling to the last position on this indicator.

Activity ranking of small banks for Q4 2025

In the group of small banks, relative stability persists. Leaders have retained their positions. The main changes in this category also occurred in the mid-tier segment, where several banks improved their standings due to growth in financial intermediation and higher profitability. In this group, six out of 15 financial institutions, including the ranking leader Universal Bank, retained their positions. At the same time, five banks recorded declines, with the largest drop observed at Ziraat Bank, which lost three positions, while Apex Bank rose by three positions in the overall ranking. AVO Bank and Madad Invest Bank each gained two positions, while Okto Bank gained one position and secured third place in the overall group ranking.

Jafar Khidirov,
Head of Banking and Financial Research Sector

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has been informed of the work being done in the spiritual and educational sphere.

The main priority of transformations in multi-ethnic Uzbekistan is the comprehensive protection of the rights and freedoms of all its citizens. And one of the inalienable rights is freedom of religion. Therefore, all conditions are being created in our country so that believers can perform rituals and observe religious traditions.

It is worth emphasizing that the policy of New Uzbekistan in this area is receiving great recognition not only among our people, but also among the international community.

Thus, if in the early years of Uzbekistan's independence the number of compatriots honored with the holy pilgrimage to Mecca and Medina could be counted on fingers, these days more than 15 thousand Uzbeks are performing the sacred rites.

President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev's greeting to our people on the occasion of Kurban Hayit, his conversation with Chairman of the Muslim Mufti Sheikh Nuriddin Khaliknazar on the pilgrimage of our compatriots have become one of the brightest pages of this year's Hajj season.

In a short period of time, Uzbekistan has created a comprehensive system of training qualified personnel in the religious and educational sphere. In order to study and popularize the rich scientific heritage of our scholars, research centers have been launched. Examples of this are the International Islamic Academy of Uzbekistan, the Mir Arab Higher Madrasa, the School of Hadith Studies, and the international research centers of Imam Bukhari, Imam Termizi, and Imam Moturidi. Large-scale renovation and improvement of Imam Bukhari memorial complex is underway.

During today's meeting it was emphasized the necessity of wider study and propaganda of works of these great thinkers among the population, especially among the youth. Since it is in them that the true meaning of Islam, enlightening ideas of the Muslim religion are laid down. And it is especially actual now, in our troubled time, when all over the world various forces try to distort the essence of religion and to lead young people off the true path.

It was noted a great role in this work and those who now make pilgrimage in sacred Mecca. The pilgrims have recently made an appeal, where they expressed their readiness to contribute to the spiritual education of the younger generation in their districts, in their mahallas.

Also at the meeting, the head of state stressed that an important role in these processes should be played by the Center of Islamic Civilization, the activities of which will serve to widely acquaint our people and foreign guests with the invaluable heritage of ancestors, to promote the ideas of enlightened Islam. At present, scientists-historians and theologians are working on filling the activities of the center with new content.

Information about further plans of the center's activity was heard.

Throughout the year, the business climate remained in positive territory, with an annual average of 57 points, indicating an overall favorable business environment in Uzbekistan.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of its 2025 business climate analysis, based on monthly nationwide surveys of entrepreneurs. Using the collected data, a composite Business Climate Indicator was constructed, reflecting assessments of current business conditions as well as expectations for the next three months.

Dynamics of the Composite Business Climate in Uzbekistan

According to the results of 2025, the annual average value of the Composite Business Climate Index in Uzbekistan amounted to 57 points on a scale from −100 to +100, which is 7% higher than in 2024. The growth was primarily driven by improved assessments of current conditions. The annual average value of the Current Business Conditions Index increased by 22% and reached 47 points.

At the same time, the Expectations Index declined slightly from 68 to 66 points, while remaining at a relatively high level. This reflects a certain degree of caution among enterprises regarding future prospects amid an overall improvement in perceptions of current conditions.

Over the year, the dynamics of the Composite Business Climate Index were uneven. The highest value was recorded in June at 63 points, while the lowest level was observed in January at 52 points. Fluctuations during the year reflected both seasonal factors and businesses’ adaptation to rapidly changing economic conditions.

By the end of the year, a high level of optimism among enterprises persisted. In December, the Business Climate Index stood at 58 points, increasing by 2 points compared to the end of 2024.

Sectoral and Regional Dynamics of the Business Climate Index

From a sectoral perspective, improvements in the business climate were recorded across most sectors of the economy in 2025. In the services sector, the index reached 58 points, representing an increase of 14.7%. In construction, the index stood at 57 points, up by 14.2%, while in industry it reached 54 points, increasing by 6.8%.

In agriculture, the index remained virtually unchanged at 56 points, indicating the persistence of previously established assessments of business conditions in this sector.

From a regional perspective, the annual average Business Climate Index increased compared to the previous year in 11 regions of the republic. In seven regions, the annual average value of the index reached 57 points.

The most pronounced improvement in business climate conditions was observed in Kashkadarya region, where the index increased by 27%, followed by Jizzakh region with a 23% increase and Khorezm region with a 17% increase. In the Republic of Karakalpakstan, growth amounted to 19%.

In Samarkand region, despite a slight decline in the index, the annual average business climate remained in positive territory at 51 points. In Tashkent region, the indicator remained unchanged at 44 points.

Business Expectations Regarding Price Dynamics and Demand

In terms of business expectations, inflationary and market assessments remained moderate in 2025. On average, 23% of companies expected price increases in the near term, which is 2 percentage points lower than in 2024.

During the year, the share of entrepreneurs expecting price increases fluctuated within the range of 18–27%, reaching a peak in April and the lowest levels in September and December. The highest price expectations were observed among enterprises in agriculture and construction, reflecting sector-specific cost structures as well as the impact of seasonal and weather-related factors.

At the same time, assessments of market conditions remained relatively strong. On average, 66% of entrepreneurs expected an increase in demand for goods and services, while 57% of companies planned to expand their workforce. Overall, the results indicate the persistence of positive expectations regarding business activity and employment, alongside more restrained assessments of price dynamics.

Assessments of Demand and Employment

The Employment Index in 2025 amounted to 43 points, corresponding to a 12% increase. The most significant growth was recorded in the services sector at 14%, construction at 17%, industry at 7%, and agriculture at 11%. Throughout the year, employment dynamics remained moderate, with sustained demand for labor.

The Demand Index also showed improvement. Its annual average value reached 48 points, representing an increase of 13%. The largest contribution came from the services sector, where the index increased by 19%, while in construction, industry, and agriculture the Demand Index rose by 6% in each sector. During the year, the index remained relatively stable, with stronger positive assessments in the second half of 2025.

Barriers to Entrepreneurial Activity

Over the course of the year, a gradual reduction in barriers to doing business was observed. According to the results, 60% of entrepreneurs reported that they did not face difficulties in conducting business, which is 6% higher than in 2024.

In industry, problems related to electricity supply decreased by 4%, high tax rates by 3%, and access to financing by 3%.

At the same time, in agriculture and construction, financing-related barriers declined significantly, by 7% and 5%, respectively.

Despite the overall reduction in complaints, financing remained the main obstacle cited by entrepreneurs in construction and industry, reported by 11% of respondents in each sector.

Overall, sectoral data indicate an increase in the share of entrepreneurs who do not face significant constraints, as well as a decline in the importance of financial and infrastructure barriers.

The Business Climate Change Indicator is constructed based on the methodology of the Ifo Institute (Germany). As part of the surveys, company managers assess current and expected changes in business activity based on developments in production, demand, prices, and other indicators.

CERR Sector for the Study of Competitiveness of Economic Sectors and Investment Activity
tel.: (78) 150 02 02 (441)

CERR Public Relations and Media Sector
tel.: (78) 150 02 02 (417)

A study conducted by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms has revealed a large-scale transition of Uzbekistani households to energy-saving technologies. The widespread adoption of energy-efficient solutions has enabled nearly 90% of households to implement at least one measure to reduce energy costs.

One of the key changes has been the widespread adoption of energy-efficient solutions at the household level.

The most common practice has been the installation of LED lighting. Overall, 87% of households have switched to LED lighting. In some regions, such as the Republic of Karakalpakstan and Khorezm, Navoi, and Tashkent regions, this figure exceeded 90%.

A total of 44% of households improved the thermal insulation of windows and doors through the installation of plastic structures, with particularly high activity in Kashkadarya (84%), Bukhara (69%), and Khorezm (54%) regions.

Additionally, 31% of households purchased energy-efficient household appliances, with the highest shares observed in Jizzakh (60%), Navoi (59%), and the Republic of Karakalpakstan (54%).

There is also growing interest in the use of renewable energy sources. More than half of owner households expressed satisfaction with the results and interest in expanding generation capacity.

The analysis indicates that potential demand for solar panels among the population amounts to approximately 1.9 million households, opening prospects for the formation of a domestic market valued at over $2.3 bn.

At the same time, a share of consumption through less efficient heating sources remains, including outdated gas boilers and solid-fuel stoves.

Potential for Improving Building Energy Efficiency

According to estimates, insulating the exterior walls of apartment buildings, modernizing heating systems, and replacing doors and windows could yield savings of more than $60 mln per year.

According to the World Bank, similar potential exists in social facilities, healthcare institutions, preschools, and public schools. Targeted investments to improve the energy efficiency of these facilities could reduce energy consumption by 20–50%, equivalent to a reduction of up to 7.1 bn kWh per year.

Thus, the measures being implemented in Uzbekistan to enhance energy efficiency serve as an important driver of economic growth.

CERR Public Relations Sector
Tel.: (78) 150 02 02 (417)

An expert from the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan, commented to Dunyo IA on the outcomes of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s working visit to the United States, which took place from February 17 to 19:

- The visit of the President of Uzbekistan to the United States, which took place as part of his participation in the first meeting of the Board of Peace, was not just another diplomatic event, but a logical continuation of the strategy of pragmatic and mutually beneficial dialogue with Washington built over recent years. It demonstrated a shift from symbolic political interaction to systemic coordination in security, economics, trade, and humanitarian exchanges.

This visit marked the culmination of an intensive partnership over the past six months. Meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the C5+1 summit, participation in events in Davos, and the signing of the Charter of the Board of Peace, as well as personal contacts between the two leaders, have fostered a stable dynamic of political dialogue. This fifth summit in six months demonstrates that relations have entered a phase of regular strategic communication, with each meeting reinforced by concrete agreements.

The visit’s busy business program confirmed its practical nature. During his stay in the United States, the head of state held talks with representatives of the American administration, financial institutions, and business circles, including the Export-Import Bank of the United States, the International Development Finance Corporation, the American-Uzbekistan Chamber of Commerce, as well as the heads of major companies such as Traxys, Valmont Industries, Gulf Oil, Aviagen, John Deere, BlackRock Financial Markets Advisory, Oppenheimer, and others. Following the signing of bilateral documents, the parties solidified agreements in priority areas such as the agro-industrial complex, critical minerals, financial market development, improving the investment climate, and the creation of an investment platform.

Discussions with the US Trade Representative and the Secretary of Commerce deserve special attention. During these talks, the need to intensify work within the framework of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement between the countries of Central Asia and the United States was emphasized. This gave cooperation not only a bilateral but also a regional dimension, strengthening Uzbekistan’s position as a coordinator of economic processes in the region.

Viewed historically, the current stage’s foundation was laid back in 2018 during Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s first official visit to Washington, when agreements worth over $4.8 billion were signed. This package signaled Uzbekistan’s systemic openness to international businesses. In 2021, the Strategic Partnership Dialogue was established, and its subsequent expansion testifies to the institutionalization of bilateral relations. The invitation of the Uzbek leader to the G20 summit in Miami, personally initiated by US President Donald Trump, further confirmed the country’s strengthening international status and recognition of its growing role on the global agenda.

The economic dimension of cooperation is demonstrating steady growth. While trade turnover stood at $408 million in 2018, it consistently exceeded $1 billion by the end of 2024-2025. The current three-year Economic Cooperation Program, worth $35 billion, reflects the long-term nature of the parties' intentions. At the same time, the structure of interaction is undergoing a qualitative change: the emphasis is shifting from trade operations to the implementation of investment and production projects.

Today, flagship American companies such as Air Products, General Electric, General Motors, Boeing, Honeywell, and John Deere are actively operating in Uzbekistan. The $8.7 billion package of agreements signed at the C5+1 summit, including a contract for 22 Boeing aircraft, investments in the critical minerals sector, and projects in the agro-industrial sector, confirms the practical focus of the dialogue.

The transformation of the export structure is particularly revealing: services now account for approximately 86% of Uzbek exports to the US, with the IT sector remaining the key driver. Of the 800 active digital services exporters, 448 target the US market, accounting for 45% of all industry exports. This demonstrates that the partnership is gradually becoming more high-tech, moving beyond traditional commodity-based models.

The humanitarian dimension of cooperation is no less important. Academic exchange is expanding, the number of joint research projects is growing, and the integration of Uzbek specialists into international educational networks is strengthening. Currently, 40 Uzbek universities are implementing partnership programs with more than 25 US universities. Webster University’s Tashkent branch and the American University of Technology, established jointly with Arizona State University, are successfully operating. Thus, a long-term intellectual infrastructure for strategic partnership is being formed.

Overall, the current stage of relations between Uzbekistan and the United States is characterized by a transition from symbolic declarations to systemic coordination on issues of regional security, sustainable development, investment policy, and technological modernization. These achievements confirm that Uzbekistan is steadily establishing itself as a key US partner in Central Asia.

Dunyo IA