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Uzbekistan’s Inclusive Turn: Solutions at the Level of Each Mahalla
Uzbekistan’s Inclusive Turn: Solutions at the Level of Each Mahalla

On 23 January, under the chairmanship of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, a videoconference meeting was held on the key tasks of poverty reduction and employment provision for 2026. In terms of both substance and the framing of issues, the meeting marked a turning point in the evolution of the country’s social policy.

The relevance of transitioning to a new model

The results of the reforms demonstrate a transition to the next stage of social policy. For the first time, poverty reduction has been placed in direct dependence on outcomes at the level of individual mahallas.

This shift is a consequence of the socio-economic results achieved. By the end of 2025, the national economy grew by 7.7%, significantly above the forecast level of 6.5%. GDP exceeded $147 bn, reaching approximately $3,900 per capita. Growth rates in all sectors surpassed those of 2024. Foreign investment reached $43 bn, while exports amounted to $33.8 bn. Inflation declined from 9.8% to 7.3% in 2025.

Sustained economic growth ensured a significant increase in budget revenues, which were consistently directed toward addressing social issues, reducing poverty, and developing mahallas. As a result, in 2025 income sources were provided for 5.4 mn people, and 330,000 families were lifted out of poverty. Unemployment declined to 4.8%, while the poverty rate fell to 5.8%.

As overall poverty indicators decline, its geography is changing. Poverty is becoming localized, concentrated, and heterogeneous. Nearly one-third of low-income households and around one-fifth of the unemployed are concentrated in a limited number of mahallas, which necessitates a transition to a new model.

Against this backdrop, the primary indicator becomes the outcome achieved at the level of each mahalla. The persistence of poverty or unemployment indicates that measures require further calibration.

Accordingly, for the first time at the national level, a systematic classification of all territories by poverty level was conducted. Based on 20 criteria, 37 “difficult” districts and 903 “difficult” mahallas were identified, home to around 120,000 poor families and approximately 155,000 unemployed citizens. At the same time, work to shape the image of a “New Uzbekistan” has also begun in an additional 33 districts and 330 “difficult” mahallas.

A distinctive feature of the new approach is that “difficult” territories are viewed as points of structural transformation. For each mahalla and district, comparative advantages are assessed, including economic, agricultural, industrial, logistics, or service-related strengths.

Individual development programmes for mahallas are being formulated. Practice shows that even in the most vulnerable areas, ensuring stable access to water and electricity, basic infrastructure, and integration with markets can multiply household incomes.

In the current year, territorially targeted development becomes the main instrument for achieving the stated goals, as clearly articulated by the President.

Infrastructure as an economic asset

A particular emphasis in the new model is placed on revising regional policy priorities. As noted by the President, residents and entrepreneurs in “difficult” districts and mahallas primarily expect improvements in roads, water supply, and electricity provision, rather than an expansion of tax incentives.

Concentrating resources on a limited number of problem territories allows infrastructure investment to be transformed from general budget spending into an instrument of targeted socio-economic impact. In 2026, $1.6 bn will be allocated for regional infrastructure development, of which $990 mn will be directed to “difficult” districts and mahallas.

At the same time, transfers from the republican budget to local budgets will double.

Additionally, allocations of $4.1 mn to each “difficult” district and $165 ths to each “difficult” mahalla are envisaged.

In total, district hokimiyats (district executive administrations) and local kengashes (local representative councils) will receive an additional approximately $330 mn exclusively to support problem territories.

A key element of this model is ensuring stable energy supply for “difficult” districts and mahallas.

In 2026, each of the 903 “difficult” mahallas is expected to host the construction of a small solar power plant with a capacity of 300 kW, with a total investment of around $110 mn. These plants will be transferred to the mahallas free of charge, creating a local energy asset. Through the generation of “green” electricity, each mahalla will gain a sustainable additional income source of $33-41 ths per year.

The proceeds are intended to be used for energy-efficient renovation of housing stock, reducing utility costs, and improving quality of life. Operation of the solar plants will involve members of low-income households, simultaneously addressing employment and infrastructure sustainability objectives.

A separate emphasis is placed on supporting the most vulnerable households. An instruction has been issued to conduct targeted assessments of 6,700 families with a member having a first-degree disability and no able-bodied household members, followed by identification of needs for energy-efficient housing upgrades and the launch of “green” renovation.

Taken together, these measures form a model of territorial and energy resilience. The effectiveness of local authorities’ performance will be subject to public evaluation, reinforcing the transition to results-oriented governance.

Comparative advantages of mahallas

The President clearly defined key socio-economic targets for 2026, including the provision of permanent employment for around 1 mn people, lifting 181,000 families out of poverty, increasing the number of poverty-free mahallas by 2.5 times to 3,500, and reducing the unemployment rate to 4.5%.

Achievement of these targets is expected to be based on the comparative advantages of specific districts and mahallas in industry, agriculture, and services. This approach allows resources to be concentrated where they generate the greatest multiplier effects for employment and household incomes.

As an example of leveraging comparative advantages based on location and specialization of mahallas, the President cited Furqat District. Its advantages include, first, cooperation with neighboring economically active centers; second, deepening specialization among nearby mahallas and combining competencies; and third, increasing value added through the launch of processing activities.

Further measures were outlined within the framework of a differentiated approach to developing problem territories.

Deepening mahalla specialization

Primary attention will be focused on deepening mahalla specialization, as welfare levels are significantly higher in mahallas with deep specialization. Practice shows that in such mahallas, welfare levels are noticeably higher, while the number of recipients of social assistance is half as large, at around 7 people per 10,000 population.

Currently, the 903 “difficult” mahallas encompass around 90,000 hectares of household and leased land. To transform this resource into a source of sustainable income, a new mechanism of a “social contract” between the state and the mahalla has been proposed. Mahallas that, by leveraging residents’ skills and rational land use, manage to increase household incomes by three to four times will receive additional financing of $165 ths for the development of road, water, and irrigation infrastructure. Implementation of this model is planned to begin with “difficult” mahallas.

To support deeper specialization, banks will allocate a total of $1.4 bn in loans. For production projects, 4% of the loan will be compensated, while for processing projects the compensation will amount to 6%.

Comparative advantages of mahallas

In 2026, $11.5 bn in credit resources are earmarked for the development of small and medium-sized businesses in mahallas, compared to $10.7 bn a year earlier. At the same time, banks have been tasked with strengthening entrepreneurship financing: alongside a planned $6 bn from external sources, the total volume of funds directed to mahalla-level projects should reach $8 bn.

Not only the scale but also the principle of credit allocation is changing. The model under which loans within the “Family Entrepreneurship” programme were issued on uniform terms at a 17.5% rate across all districts and cities is giving way to territorial differentiation. In particular, for the 37 “difficult” districts, the rate is reduced to 12%. This step transforms lending into an instrument for accelerating the development of problem territories.

In parallel, programme limits and target areas are being expanded. In all districts, the maximum size of concessional loans is increased by 1.5 times, from $2.7 ths to $4.1 ths. To support this decision, an additional $165 mn is added to the planned $297 mn.

Overall, the 2026 credit policy is shaped as a targeted development mechanism, a managed conversion of credit into employment, income, and local growth.

Institutional changes in system governance

A number of institutional changes are also envisaged to enhance the effectiveness of all governance levels involved in mahalla development.

Work in mahallas is moving away from an administrative-intermediary model and is being structured around specific projects. In this framework, the hokim’s assistant acts as a territorial development manager responsible for implementing project solutions.

To ensure integrated project governance, multi-level coordination is being introduced. Initiatives proposed by hokims’ assistants are paired with regional bankers; the first deputy hokim of the region provides operational oversight; and the “Reform Headquarters” supervises issues requiring inter-agency solutions. From February, a system of training hokims’ assistants in project management will be launched, starting with “difficult” mahallas. Each district will form a project portfolio followed by a transition to practical implementation.

One hundred “difficult” mahallas that demonstrate the best performance in job creation, income growth, and poverty reduction will receive an additional $82.5 ths each. Hokims’ assistants from these mahallas will be able to upgrade their qualifications in China, Turkiye, South Korea, and Malaysia.

In this context, work on developing mahalla master plans is being intensified. International experts are being engaged, alongside the potential of domestic universities. Final-year students in architecture programmes will be able to participate in the development of “difficult” mahallas, with the best projects being supported by state grants.

Overall, the institutional changes formalize a shift from a universal approach to a differentiated territorial policy.

Resource redistribution is justified by the structure of the economy: 62% of industrial production and 57% of services are concentrated in 50 districts and cities with high entrepreneurial potential. Growth in their budget revenues creates an opportunity to concentrate state efforts on problem territories.

This is evident from revenue dynamics: three years ago, additional local budget revenues in these 50 territories amounted to $72.2 mn, while in the current year they are expected to increase 8.5 times, to $610.5 mn.

As a result, greater attention can be directed to “difficult” districts and mahallas, where poverty and unemployment are territorially concentrated.

Conclusion

The decisions and instruments for 2026 demonstrate that Uzbekistan’s social policy is moving beyond traditional resource redistribution toward a model of managed territorial development. The new model rests on three interlinked pillars.

First, the concentration of infrastructure resources in “difficult” districts and mahallas, with the creation of long-term local assets, reduced household costs, and enhanced energy resilience.

Second, the expansion of employment based on comparative advantages and deeper territorial specialization, supported by financial incentives, access to credit, and solutions along value chains.

Third, institutional recalibration of governance, where a project-based approach and multi-level coordination align resources, responsibility, and measurable outcomes.

The essence of the current phase is that targeting becomes a technology focused on “difficult” territories. Exiting poverty is understood as an individual household trajectory, in which local conditions, skills, and infrastructure are decisive. The “Mahalla Seven” and the institution of hokims’ assistants serve as the connecting link, ensuring coordination and feedback until results are achieved.

 

Khurshed Asadov,
Deputy Director of Center for Economic Research and Reforms

The President participates in a festive celebration in a mahalla
The President participates in a festive celebration in a mahalla

Navruz is greeted with special enthusiasm throughout the country. On March 20, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev visited Rohat mahalla in Bektemir district, where he took part in festive events.

The mahalla, specializing in services and trade, is home to 4,000 people. Under the new employment system, the mahalla's internal reserves are actively used with the participation of banks. Last year, about 100 residents got jobs, 256 people became self-employed, and 13 people started entrepreneurial activities. Two manufacturing enterprises and dozens of trade and consumer service outlets create convenience for residents.

The Head of State reviewed the activities of these enterprises.

The mahalla has landscaped streets, well-maintained houses, educational and medical institutions, sports grounds, training centers, an amphitheater, crafts and library and information centers. The center for the elderly is especially lively now.

The President took part in the Sumalak celebration and had a warm talk with residents of the mahalla and representatives of the older generation. During the conversation, plans for the current year were discussed, including ensuring peace and stability, supporting entrepreneurship and creating new jobs.

 I am glad to see your mahalla so well-maintained and people in a good mood. Over time, we will expand opportunities in all districts. The most important thing is to maintain peace and unity. Remember what the situation was on our borders before? We solve all issues in a balanced manner, with political will. Thanks to the organization of work on the ground, we see the real picture in 10 thousand mahallas. Through the "mahalla seven" system, assistance reaches every home. We still have a lot of work to do in terms of increasing the population's income, reducing poverty and youth policy. This is why we are paying more attention to education, especially to the education of girls. A society where young people are educated and spiritually developed will definitely achieve prosperity, - emphasized Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

In the Rohat mahalla, young residents receive a quality education in a comprehensive school, a children's music and art school, the “Barkamol Avlod” center and an academic lyceum. The construction of a new preschool institution was recently completed, which will open up new opportunities for the early development of children.

Education, Science and Innovation – the Main Driver of Integration Among Turkic States
Education, Science and Innovation – the Main Driver of Integration Among Turkic States

In the context of today’s global development, the competitiveness of states is determined прежде всего by their intellectual potential, modern education systems, scientific advancement, and innovative capabilities. In this regard, education, science, and innovation are gaining strategic importance in elevating cooperation among Turkic states to a fundamentally new level. These areas contribute not only to economic growth and human capital development, but also to strengthening spiritual closeness among peoples, creating a common civilizational space, and building a solid foundation for future progress.

In recent years, thanks to the efforts of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, an entirely new atmosphere has emerged in relations with the Turkic states. In particular, large-scale projects implemented in the fields of higher education, science, and innovation are gradually becoming a practical mechanism for Turkic integration. Today, hundreds of inter-university agreements, joint educational programs, academic exchanges, and research projects are being implemented with Türkiye, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan.

Cooperation with Kazakhstan is among the most active areas in this regard. Currently, more than 280 agreements and memorandums are in force between higher education institutions of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In recent years, student exchange between the two countries has increased significantly. In particular, during the 2025/2026 academic year, the number of Kazakh students studying at universities in Uzbekistan exceeded 1,000. At the same time, more than 5,500 Uzbek students are pursuing higher education in Kazakhstan.

The practice of opening branch campuses of universities has also marked a new stage in Turkic educational integration. The branch of South Kazakhstan University in Chirchiq and the branch of the National Research University “TIIAME” in Almaty are vivid examples of such important initiatives. These projects contribute not only to training qualified personnel, but also to developing common educational standards.

Cooperation with Kyrgyzstan is also developing consistently. In recent years, more than 90 agreements and memorandums have been signed between the universities of the two countries. In 2023, a forum of rectors was held in Osh, and in 2024 another forum took place in Samarkand, resulting in dozens of new agreements. These forums are becoming important platforms for shaping a common higher education space among the Turkic states.

Uzbekistan’s allocation of state grants for Kyrgyz youth is also of particular importance. Since 2021, 100 state grants have been allocated annually for citizens of Kyrgyzstan. This contributes to strengthening the integration of human capital through education.

In cooperation with Azerbaijan, cultural and educational initiatives occupy a special place. Universities of the two countries are implementing joint projects in philology, literature, arts, tourism, oil and gas studies, and medicine.

The operation of the Fuzuli Center for Azerbaijani Culture, Education and Research at the Tashkent State University of Uzbek Language and Literature, as well as the establishment of the Alisher Navoi Scientific Center in Baku, are vivid examples of the spiritual closeness between the two peoples. Such centers contribute to the in-depth study of the common literary and cultural heritage of the Turkic nations.

It should be emphasized that the joint study and promotion of the legacy of great ancestors plays an important role in strengthening the spiritual foundations of Turkic integration. In particular, the legacy of Alisher Navoi serves as a powerful spiritual bridge uniting Turkic peoples. On February 13, 2026, an international conference titled “Alisher Navoi — the Great Representative of Turkic Literature” was held at the TURKSOY headquarters in Ankara to mark the 585th anniversary of the poet’s birth. The event brought together representatives of science, literature, and diplomacy from across the Turkic world, as well as prominent scholars and cultural figures.

During the conference, TURKSOY Secretary General Sultan Raev described Navoi as the common conscience and civilizational symbol of the Turkic world. Discussions focused on researching Navoi’s works using modern scientific approaches, studying manuscripts, and expanding publishing and translation activities. In particular, the full publication of the “Khamsa” in Azerbaijani and the translation of “Mahbub ul-Qulub” into several Turkic languages demonstrate that Navoi’s legacy has become a shared spiritual treasure of the Turkic world.

As part of the conference, international scientific projects implemented by the Tashkent State University of Uzbek Language and Literature were presented. In addition, the awarding of TURKSOY medals to several Uzbek scholars and cultural figures for their contributions to Turkic culture and literature became a high recognition of spiritual cooperation.

Turkology occupies a special place in the scientific and cultural cooperation among Turkic states. The International Conference on Turkological Studies dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the First Turkological Congress, held on April 8, 2025, at Baku Slavic University, demonstrated that cooperation in this sphere is reaching a new level. The event brought together representatives of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, leaders of universities from Türkiye, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, prominent scholars, and a delegation from Namangan State University. Discussions focused on promising directions in Turkological research, the study of shared historical and cultural heritage, and the expansion of international academic cooperation.

Humanitarian and scientific cooperation with Turkmenistan is also developing harmoniously. Joint research, olympiads, international conferences, and scientific projects are regularly organized between Uzbek and Turkmen scholars. In particular, the launch of a joint scientific project competition and the financing of four joint research initiatives starting from 2024 are of great significance.

Cooperation with Türkiye has become one of the largest and most institutionalized dimensions of Turkic integration. In recent years, more than 200 cooperation agreements have been signed between higher education institutions of Uzbekistan and Türkiye. Dozens of new projects have also been launched within the framework of rectors’ forums between the two countries.

Joint educational programs, technoparks, and projects in engineering and high technologies are being implemented with leading Turkish universities. In particular, training courses on drone technologies organized in cooperation with the company TUSAŞ, the establishment of an innovative educational and industrial technopark based on the “Yildiz” technopark concept, and the activities of the branch campus of the Turkish University of Economics and Technology in Tashkent are creating a new model of Turkic innovation cooperation.

Today, the integration of Turkic states is no longer limited to cultural proximity or historical commonality. It is gaining new substance through innovation, startups, digital technologies, artificial intelligence, engineering, and scientific research. Joint scientific project competitions conducted between Uzbekistan and Türkiye in cooperation with TÜBİTAK are a practical manifestation of this process.

At the same time, initiatives are being advanced to strengthen academic mobility among Turkic states, ensure mutual recognition of diplomas and qualifications, create unified educational platforms, and establish scientific journals and research funds. Most importantly, these processes are driven by the idea of investing in human capital, educating younger generations on the basis of shared values, and ensuring intellectual unity. In the 21st century, the fate of nations is determined not by oil or gas, but by knowledge, technology, and innovation.

In this sense, cooperation in education, science, and innovation is becoming the most sustainable, promising, and powerful driver of integration among Turkic states. This process not only brings Turkic peoples closer together, but also contributes to the emergence of a new intellectual and technological center across the Eurasian region.

One of the important factors elevating Turkic integration to a new stage is the strengthening of institutional cooperation among higher education institutions. Uzbekistan’s chairmanship of the Union of Turkic Universities — TÜRKÜNİB — during 2025–2026, an organization uniting more than 100 universities, clearly demonstrates the country’s active and initiative-driven policy in this area.

On October 15, 2025, the 8th General Assembly of TÜRKÜNİB was held at Tashkent International University within the framework of the “Days of Turkic Science and Innovation.” The event was attended by the Secretary General of the Organization of Turkic States, Kubanychbek Omuraliev, President of the Turkic Academy Shahin Mustafayev, representatives of the OTS and TURKSOY leadership, university rectors, scholars, and representatives of international organizations. Around 200 delegates from 69 universities of Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Hungary, Northern Cyprus, and Uzbekistan participated in the Assembly.

During the event, the results of the “TurkBarometer” project were presented, and socio-political processes and integration trends within the Turkic states were discussed. Meetings held in the U2U — “University-to-University” — format served as a practical platform for establishing new inter-university partnerships.

Today, one of the important institutional platforms contributing to the formation of a unified academic space among Turkic states is the International University of Turkic States established in Tashkent. The university operates with the aim of deepening cooperation in education, science, and innovation among Turkic countries, training modern specialists, and developing joint scientific research.

The university’s academic programs, governance model, and educational processes are being developed based on the principles of mutual integration among Turkic states. In addition, the institution serves as an important platform for expanding academic exchange among faculty members and students, as well as for implementing joint educational programs and scientific projects.

Integration among Turkic states is no longer confined solely to education and science. Youth policy, student exchange, and sports diplomacy are also becoming important components of this process. In particular, at the 3rd Turkic States Universiade held in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan, in September 2025, the Uzbek delegation participated with 80 student-athletes across seven sports disciplines. These competitions contribute to strengthening friendship and solidarity among the youth of Turkic countries, fostering a healthy competitive environment, and developing a shared youth space.

Today, cooperation among Turkic states in the fields of education, science, and innovation is becoming one of the key drivers of common development. Relations strengthened through universities, scientific centers, academic platforms, and youth initiatives are helping to unite the intellectual potential of the Turkic world.

Importantly, these processes are not limited to current interests or short-term projects. Their significance lies in the creation of a common space of knowledge and development for future generations. Convergence in science, innovation, and modern technologies plays a crucial role in enhancing the international competitiveness of Turkic states.

Today, the intellectual cooperation developing among Turkic states is bringing not only universities and research institutions closer together, but also the peoples themselves. This creates an opportunity to build a new model of modern development based on shared history and spiritual heritage.

In this regard, education, science, and innovation are becoming the strongest spiritual and intellectual bridge connecting the common future of the Turkic states.

Nazokat ABDUQUNDUZOVA, Head of the Information Service
Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation

 

Tashkent as Central Asia’s Investment Capital: What to Expect from the Fifth International Investment Forum
Tashkent as Central Asia’s Investment Capital: What to Expect from the Fifth International Investment Forum

The Fifth Tashkent International Investment Forum will take place on June 16–19, 2026. This year’s theme – “Investment Resilience: New Frontiers, New Partnerships” – frames the agenda around a set of pressing questions: how to protect capital amid global uncertainty, what institutional mechanisms enhance investment resilience in frontier markets, and where the new partnership routes lie.

The forum’s context is set by macroeconomic results. According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025 and exceeded $147 billion – the fastest pace since 2021 and among the highest in the Europe and Central Asia region. Fitch Ratings and S&P Global upgraded the country’s sovereign rating from BB– to BB for the first time, while Moody’s revised its outlook to “positive.” International reserves, per the Central Bank, surpass $77 billion. Exports rose 24% to $33.8 billion. Foreign direct investment increased by 46.9%, with FDI accounting for 40.5% of total capital investment. For an economy that attracted only $4 billion in annual foreign investment in 2017, the surge to $42 billion by 2025 represents a fundamentally different scale of growth. This tenfold increase over eight years underscores a profound transformation in the nation's investment landscape.

The forum is scaling alongside the economy. Last year’s TIIF drew over 8,000 participants, including some 3,000 international delegates from 97 countries. Guests included Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, heads of government from all Central Asian states, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, and New Development Bank President Dilma Rousseff. The aggregate value of signed investment contracts and trade agreements reached $30.5 billion. Yet what best speaks to the platform’s maturity is not the number of signings but the conversion rate – the share of agreements that translate into operating assets is increasingly the metric that matters to returning investors.

The centrepiece of this year’s forum will be the Tashkent International Financial Centre (TIFC), established by presidential decree in March 2026. Behind the headline sits a specific institutional architecture: a special legal regime based on common-law principles, a dedicated financial services regulator, an arbitration centre (TIAC), and tax exemptions through 2076. TIFC is part of a global trend toward specialised financial hubs that offer international market participants a familiar legal environment and regulatory predictability. Its defining feature is integration within the country’s legal framework: the centre operates under a special legal regime rather than creating a separate jurisdiction, reducing regulatory fragmentation and simplifying engagement with the domestic economy. A panel session featuring leaders of major global financial centres and international investors operating in Uzbekistan will address the central question: what are the practical conditions under which TIFC can attract international market participants.

The TIIF 2026 programme is structured around four thematic pillars: investment resilience and capital protection mechanisms, financial infrastructure and capital market development, trade connectivity and logistics corridors, and energy transition and climate finance. Key sessions include a discussion of the regulatory framework for alternative investment funds (a legal basis for private equity and venture capital being adopted for the first time), a panel on the Middle Corridor and trans-Caspian logistics, a session on sovereign ratings across Central Asia, and a practitioner-led workshop on blended finance instruments in frontier markets. A dedicated arbitration and dispute resolution track features two panel sessions co-organised with the Tashkent International Arbitration Centre (TIAC), the British-Uzbek Legal Association (BrULA), and the British Embassy. Topics range from the institutional design of Uzbekistan’s arbitration ecosystem – including the innovative Dispute Avoidance Protocol (DAP) – to the country’s positioning within the global investment protection architecture: ISDS frameworks, bilateral investment treaty reform, and New York Convention enforcement.

The energy agenda warrants particular attention. Uzbekistan has set an ambitious target of raising the share of renewables in electricity generation to 54% by 2030. Currently, the country operates solar and wind facilities with a combined installed capacity exceeding 4 GW, with a project pipeline envisaging an additional 19 GW of green capacity. Alongside this, the public-private partnership mechanism continues to develop: as of early 2025, PPP agreements worth approximately $28 billion had been signed in the country. For investors, this represents a large, structured market with standardised PPA contracts and a clear entry mechanism – a subject that will be examined in detail during the forum’s energy panel.

TIIF 2026 retains its bilateral business forum format, reflecting the expanding geography of Uzbekistan’s economic partnerships. Confirmed platforms include business forums with the Republic of Korea, the United States, Croatia, Hungary, Turkey, and Albania, as well as a China–SCO countries investment dialogue; the lineup continues to grow as the event approaches. The plenary session featuring heads of state and government will set the tone for the business programme. Running in parallel is an exhibition of industrial and investment potential spanning approximately 6,000 sq m – in 2025, a comparable facility facilitated over 500 B2B and B2G meetings for 100 participating companies.

At the same time, the forum agenda implicitly flags unresolved challenges. The corporate governance session raises the question of transitioning from concentrated to dispersed ownership – a process without which the stock market will remain illiquid. The discussion of privatisation and state asset IPOs calls for a candid conversation about pacing and institutional quality. The responsible business conduct panel, anchored in OECD standards, recognises that tax incentives alone are insufficient for accessing institutional capital – what is needed is verifiable supply chain transparency and functioning National Contact Point mechanisms.

The business programme is complemented by networking formats: an FIC and EY business breakfast on digitalisation and AI, the annual SQB Investor Day, an ESG Award ceremony, and the European Business Evening. The informal component – an invitational tennis tournament, TIIF Open, and an evening run – is designed for delegates who prefer to build relationships beyond the conference hall. The anniversary evening concludes with a collaboration with the Stihia electronic music festival – a detail that captures the tone in which Uzbekistan presents itself to an international audience.

For Uzbekistan, TIIF has long ceased to be a showcase. It is a working instrument of investment policy, whose effectiveness is measured not by the number of signing ceremonies but by the volume of capital that actually enters the economy between forums. The fifth, anniversary edition takes place at a moment when the country is simultaneously launching an international financial centre, adopting an alternative investment funds law, and receiving a sovereign rating upgrade – a convergence that creates a window of opportunity for investors prepared to operate in frontier markets with a growing institutional base.

CERR Assesses the Potential for Expanding Trade Between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
CERR Assesses the Potential for Expanding Trade Between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan

According to estimates by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), there is potential to increase mutual trade between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan by 30–40%. Additional opportunities for expanding economic cooperation are primarily linked to the development of industrial cooperation between the two countries.

Economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan has demonstrated steady positive dynamics; however, the potential of bilateral relations remains only partially realized. This was stated today by Khurshed Asadov, Deputy Director of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), during the international scientific and practical conference “Uzbekistan – Tajikistan: New Prospects for Alliance and Regional Cooperation”, held in Tashkent.

According to the expert, relations between the two countries have reached a qualitatively new level in recent years. Cooperation, reinforced by agreements on strategic partnership and allied relations, has created an institutional foundation for the active development of economic ties.

According to CERR estimates, mutual trade between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan increased 3.8 times during 2017–2025, rising from $238 mln to $912 mln. During the same period, Uzbekistan’s exports grew 3.7 times, while imports from Tajikistan increased more than fourfold.

Today, Tajikistan ranks among Uzbekistan’s key regional partners, occupying ninth place among the countries importing Uzbek products.

At the same time, current indicators reflect only part of the possible potential of economic interaction. According to CERR estimates, mutual trade could increase by an additional 30–40% solely through the substitution of Tajikistan’s imports from third countries with products manufactured by Uzbek producers.

The expert emphasized that geographical proximity, a shared border, and well-developed transport connections create favorable conditions for deepening trade relations. In particular, significant prospects remain for expanding Uzbekistan’s industrial exports, including automobiles, household appliances, textile products, and chemical goods.

At the same time, considerable potential also exists in the sphere of industrial cooperation. According to the expert, one of the most promising cooperation models could involve the establishment of joint processing facilities in border regions, particularly focused on the processing of agricultural raw materials and the development of agrologistics centers.

Asadov also noted that further development of transport infrastructure and the expansion of transit opportunities in Central Asia could serve as an additional driver of economic integration.

As emphasized by the Deputy Director of CERR, the current level of allied relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan creates the foundation for transitioning to a deeper model of economic cooperation, focused on joint investments, industrial cooperation, and the development of regional infrastructure, which could become an important factor in strengthening economic connectivity and promoting the development of Central Asia.

For reference: The international scientific and practical conference “Uzbekistan – Tajikistan: New Prospects for Alliance and Regional Cooperation” was organized by the International Institute for Central Asia (IICA). The event brought together representatives of government institutions, the diplomatic corps, and expert and academic communities from both countries. Participants discussed the current state and prospects for developing trade-economic, investment, and humanitarian cooperation between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

CERR Public Relations Sector

Uzbekistan embraces the language of international law and becomes part of the global financial system
Uzbekistan embraces the language of international law and becomes part of the global financial system

The President of Uzbekistan signed the Constitutional Law “On the Tashkent International Financial Center”.

 

In the legal hierarchy of the state, a Constitutional Law ranks immediately after the Constitution. This means that no agency, no instruction and no by-law may contradict its provisions. For an investor, especially an international one, this is the highest form of legal guarantee: capital flows to where it cannot be taken away tomorrow.

The signing of the Constitutional Law was accompanied by amendments to the Basic Law and dozens of legislative acts — the Criminal, Civil, Tax and Customs Codes, as well as laws on banks, securities, investment, auditing and many others.

Article 15 of the Constitution has been supplemented with a provision stating that a special legal regime may be established in special zones within the country's unified legal space. This legitimizes the existence of the TIFC as a jurisdiction with different rules within Uzbekistan, without contradicting the Basic Law.

Article 131 of the Constitution has been supplemented with a provision allowing for the establishment of specialized courts in zones with a special legal regime, which forms the constitutional basis for the Tashkent International Commercial Court.

The Tashkent International Financial Center is being established as an independent entity with clearly defined boundaries that cannot be arbitrarily reduced once it becomes operational.

The legal system of the TIFC is based on English law and the principles of equity of England and Wales. This is the very system under which the world’s largest financial centers operate. It is familiar and well understood by global banks, investment funds and multinational corporations. In other words, it is the language of international capital.

All decisions taken by the center's bodies are published in the official register in English, which is an important signal for foreign participants. The translation barrier, which often becomes a source of dispute, is eliminated here from the outset.

Particular attention should be paid to the establishment, within the TIFC, of the Tashkent International Commercial Court, which will become an institution of trust. The court enjoys full independence, and no agency or state body has the right to instruct it or interfere in its activities. Judges may be citizens of any state — specialists in international trade law, finance, technology and arbitration — which opens the way to attracting judges of international standing and reputation.

It is also important that the rulings of the Tashkent International Commercial Court are binding throughout the territory of Uzbekistan and cannot be reviewed by the country’s ordinary state courts, except in strictly defined cases. The court consists of a court of first instance and a court of appeal.

The law establishes a clear and exhaustive list of protective mechanisms for TIFC participants. First and foremost is the prohibition on confiscation, nationalization, expropriation and the freezing of assets other than by court order and strictly in accordance with the law.

Participants of the Tashkent International Financial Center are guaranteed freedom of capital movement and the right to conduct transactions in foreign currency and digital assets within the limits established by the Financial Services Authority together with the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. The right to freely repatriate capital is also provided for — that is, the ability to transfer profits abroad without administrative obstacles.

A separate set of provisions sets out the tax and customs regime. The TIFC's bodies and the structures under their control are exempt from corporate income tax and the social tax. This benefit is fixed until 1 January 2076 — that is, for 50 years. This is not a tactical incentive but a strategic guarantee designed to span a change of generations.

The list of services that participants may provide within the center covers the entire spectrum of the modern financial industry. These include banking and insurance activities, management of investment and pension funds, trust structures, leasing, crowdfunding, Islamic finance, work with digital assets, market-making, and transactions with securities of all classes — shares, bonds, sukuk and derivatives.

In addition to the financial sector, activity is permitted in auditing, consulting, legal and accounting services, corporate governance, and financial-technology (fintech) startups. Provision is also made for the establishment of holding companies, special-purpose vehicles and treasury companies.

The law also establishes a special visa regime for foreign nationals working at the Tashkent International Financial Center. An entry visa valid for up to five years can be obtained directly at Tashkent International Airport. Foreign specialists may be hired without obtaining work permits in Uzbekistan, which significantly simplifies the recruitment of global talent.

The Tashkent International Financial Center is governed through four bodies: the TIFC Council, the Administration, the Financial Services Authority, and the Tashkent International Commercial Court. Each operates within strictly defined powers and has no right to interfere in the sphere of competence of another.

The composition of the Council is approved by the President of Uzbekistan. At least one-third of the Council's members must be independent specialists in international finance and law who have never held positions within the government system of Uzbekistan. This serves as a safeguard against the governing body turning into just another administrative structure.

Council members (other than the chairperson) are appointed for a term of five years and may be removed early only on grounds provided for by law. The stability of the governing body's composition is another form of predictability for market participants.

Thus, the creation of the Tashkent International Financial Center is not merely another economic development project. It is a declaration of intent, enshrined at the highest legal level. Uzbekistan wants — and is ready — to become part of the global financial system as a fully-fledged platform operating under clear, internationally recognized standards.

Half a century of tax incentives, English law, an independent international court, constitutional guarantees for the protection of capital, and simplified visa procedures — each of these elements is, on its own, a competitive advantage. Together, they form a system capable of attracting long-term, institutional, smart capital.

 

Dildora Kamalova
Member of the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis of Uzbekistan

(Dunyo IA)

Do you know Uzbekistan?
Do you know Uzbekistan?

The text of the article is in Uzbek language!

New Opportunities to Expand Cooperation Between Uzbekistan and Serbia
New Opportunities to Expand Cooperation Between Uzbekistan and Serbia

The upcoming visit of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan to Serbia could mark an important stage in the development of bilateral relations. Over the past year, the political dialogue between Tashkent and Belgrade has intensified noticeably and taken on a more systematic character. Against this backdrop, one of the key tasks now is to translate the political engagement achieved so far into concrete trade, investment, transport, and humanitarian projects.

The current momentum builds on relations that have developed over three decades. Serbia recognized Uzbekistan’s independence on 31 December 1991, and the two countries established diplomatic relations on 18 January 1995. In the early years, the diplomatic mission of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in Tashkent maintained contacts between the two sides. In 2003, the mission ceased operations amid the economic situation in Serbia at the time.

Relations gained new momentum in 2025. In September, on the sidelines of events in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Second World War, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev held conversation with President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic. A key milestone followed on 28–31 October, when the Serbian leader paid his first official visit to Uzbekistan. Following the talks, the two heads of state signed a Joint Declaration and adopted a package of intergovernmental and interagency documents covering the economy, investment, education, tourism, labor migration, and other areas of cooperation.

The mutual accreditation of ambassadors marked another important institutional step. On 7 July 2025, the first Ambassador of Uzbekistan to Serbia presented his credentials to the President of Serbia, and on 27 October the Ambassador of Serbia to Uzbekistan presented his credentials to the Uzbek side.

High-level contacts continued in 2026. In April, the foreign ministers of the two countries held talks on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, and in May, Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Duric visited Uzbekistan. On 18 May, Sh.Mirziyoyev and A.Vucic met again on the sidelines of the World Urban Forum in Baku. In July, the two leaders held a phone conversation, and on 3 August, the foreign ministries of the two countries held a third round of political consultations in Belgrade.

The political dialogue is gradually being complemented by growing ties between the two countries’ legislatures. The chambers of the Oliy Majlis have set up an inter-parliamentary group for cooperation with the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia. Senate Chairwoman T.Narbaeva visited Belgrade in June 2026 to take part in the IPU Global Conference of Women Parliamentarians, and a few weeks later Tashkent hosted a delegation from the “Serbia–Uzbekistan” parliamentary friendship group, led by its chairman A.Markovic.

The political and institutional foundation now in place creates favorable conditions for expanding economic cooperation. At the same time, its current scale still falls well short of the existing potential. In 2025, bilateral trade turnover totaled around $12 million. 9 enterprises with Serbian capital currently operate in Uzbekistan, pointing to considerable room for expanding both trade and industrial cooperation.

The cultural and humanitarian dimension of bilateral ties is also gradually expanding. An important step in this direction came in October 2025, when the two sides signed an agreement establishing partnership relations between Tashkent and Belgrade during the Serbian President’s visit. The agreement opens additional opportunities for direct contacts between the two capitals and for joint initiatives.

The progress achieved over the past year lays the groundwork for moving to more systematic work across several areas.

First, significant potential remains in trade and economic cooperation. Priorities here could include broadening the range of Uzbek exports, increasing the share of high-value-added products, and establishing a preferential trade regime. In February 2026, Deputy Prime Minister of Uzbekistan J.Khodjaev and Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia A.Mesarovic identified this as one of the priorities for further work.

Both sides have solid economic grounds for expanding trade. Uzbekistan has a growing industrial base in the textile, chemical, food, and machine-building sectors. Serbia, for its part, enjoys preferential access to the EU market and an extensive network of free trade agreements. This creates opportunities not only for increasing mutual deliveries but also for developing industrial cooperation with a view to reaching third markets.

Second, developing transport connectivity holds practical interest. In February 2026, an Uzbek delegation held talks with representatives of Serbia’s transport sector in Belgrade. In separate meetings, the delegation discussed prospects for rail cooperation with Serbian Railways Infrastructure and explored the possibility of launching direct flights between Tashkent and Belgrade with Air Serbia.

Launching direct flights could substantially ease business, tourism, education, and humanitarian contacts between the two countries. Developing freight links between Central Asia and the Balkans also represents a promising direction. Going forward, growing freight volumes on routes involving Uzbekistan could further strengthen transport connectivity between Central Asia and European markets.

Third, developing labor mobility carries particular significance. Uzbekistan has consistently built up a system of organized external labor migration and established itself as a reliable partner in training skilled personnel. According to the Migration Agency, the country has concluded 48 agreements with 23 states in this area.

This experience provides a practical foundation for building a similar mechanism with Serbia. Reaching agreements would make it possible to establish transparent channels for organized employment, strengthen the protection of citizens, and, at the same time, promote regulated labor mobility between the two countries.

Fourth, education, science, and technology cooperation offer significant opportunities. An intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in education, science, and culture, signed in October 2025, has strengthened the legal basis for this cooperation. One practical avenue could involve Uzbek students participating in Serbian state educational programs, including the “World in Serbia” scholarship program.

Ongoing transformations in Uzbekistan’s higher education system are creating further opportunities to expand such cooperation. The country now has 215 universities, including 30 branches of foreign educational institutions. Uzbek universities continue to strengthen their standing in international rankings, while joint programs with leading foreign educational institutions continue to expand.

Building on the existing institutional foundation, joint educational programs and research projects could become promising directions going forward, particularly in technical fields, digital technologies, and workforce training for priority sectors of both countries’ economies. Such cooperation could give the relationship a long-term character, complementing political contacts with lasting professional and institutional ties.

Fifth, tourism and cultural exchanges serve as an additional resource for rapprochement. In April 2026, the relevant agencies of the two countries discussed joint projects in film tourism, PR promotion, and familiarization trips for media representatives and bloggers. In practical terms, such initiatives could not only help increase tourist flows but also expand direct contacts between the two societies.

In sum, over a relatively short period, Uzbekistan and Serbia have built a fairly solid political and institutional foundation for further developing their relations. At the same time, the level of political dialogue still clearly outpaces the scale of trade, economic, and investment cooperation. The trajectory of the next stage will therefore largely depend on the two sides’ ability to translate the political capital they have accumulated into concrete projects and durable cooperation mechanisms.

The upcoming visit of the President of Uzbekistan to Serbia could give this process additional momentum. Its practical significance will depend above all on progress in trade and investment, transport, labor mobility, education, and tourism. Implementing such initiatives will help fill the rapidly developing political dialogue with more substantial economic and humanitarian content.

Madinabonu Kayumova,
Leading Researcher
of ISRS under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

 

Employees and veterans of internal affairs bodies
Employees and veterans of internal affairs bodies

The text of the article is in Uzbek.

Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan: economy of trust, routes and joint projects
Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan: economy of trust, routes and joint projects

Relations between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan have in recent years become one of the most dynamic links between Central Asia and the South Caucasus. They are underpinned by sustained dialogue between the two countries’ leaders, political trust, cultural and historical affinity, and growing mutual interest in trade, investment, transport, industry, energy, and the development of transport routes. Consequently, bilateral cooperation is increasingly moving beyond traditional partnership and evolving into comprehensive economic cooperation.

Regular high-level contacts provide the strategic framework for this work. In recent years, the two countries’ leaders have exchanged state and working visits, giving the relationship sustained political momentum. The Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation remains the principal mechanism for intergovernmental coordination. Fourteen meetings have already been held, while the forthcoming meeting in Tashkent is expected to give fresh impetus to trade, investment, and economic cooperation.

Direct interregional ties remain an important element of this architecture. The intergovernmental agreement on interregional cooperation, regional forums held in Tashkent, Quba, and Baku, as well as agreements signed between cities of the two countries, demonstrate that the partnership is gradually moving from government-level decisions towards practical cooperation between regions. The forthcoming Forum of Regions could provide a platform for concrete agreements in trade, industry, tourism, and urban infrastructure.

Trade statistics confirm the growing economic interest. By the end of 2025, bilateral trade had reached USD 307.3 million. The positive trend strengthened in January–May 2026, with trade turnover increasing by 38.2%. The next target is to raise bilateral trade to USD 1 billion by 2030.

To consolidate this trend, it is important to move beyond growth in individual product categories towards a more sustainable supply model. This involves expanding the range of traded goods, developing promotion and distribution channels, opening a trade mission of Uzbekistan in Baku, and making use of new logistics opportunities. Within this framework, the southern route is of particular importance: promoting Azerbaijani products through trade platforms in Termez could facilitate access to neighbouring markets and give bilateral trade a broader regional dimension.

The investment component is supported by the growing presence of Azerbaijani businesses in Uzbekistan. As of July 2026, 442 enterprises with Azerbaijani capital were operating in the country. Their activities cover trade, mechanical engineering, metalworking, finance, insurance, real estate, energy, services, food production, and light industry. This indicates a transition from one-off trade transactions to more sustainable forms of business engagement.

The Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Investment Company provides the financial foundation for some of these initiatives. Its current portfolio comprises nine projects with a total value of USD 651 million, with the company’s financing amounting to USD 170.9 million. Funding has already been allocated to four projects, while five more have received approval. The importance of this instrument lies not only in the volume of available resources but also in its ability to translate political agreements into practical solutions in trade, education, healthcare, industry, logistics, and the financial sector.

On this basis, industrial cooperation is acquiring tangible substance. The automotive industry is one of the key areas: the production of Chevrolet vehicles and Isuzu commercial vehicles is being developed in Azerbaijan with the participation of Uzbek enterprises, while the expansion of the production facility in Hajiqabul is expected to ensure a deeper manufacturing cycle, including welding and painting. This format is important because it involves not merely the supply of finished products but also the development of assembly and component supply chains and technological exchange.

Sectoral opportunities are not limited to the automotive industry. In the mining sector, the parties are developing cooperation in the geological exploration and development of precious and critical metal deposits in Uzbekistan. This strengthens the industrial dimension of the bilateral agenda and creates a foundation for more technologically advanced cooperation in the field of mineral resources.

Alongside the mining industry, oil and gas and chemical cooperation hold considerable potential. SOCAR’s participation creates opportunities for joint work in geological exploration, energy supplies, processing, and the development of related services. In a broader context, this makes it possible to view cooperation not only through the lens of the raw materials sector but also as a foundation for industrial and technological linkages with significant practical value.

Transport and logistics occupy a special place in bilateral cooperation. The production and use of ferries for Uzbekistan’s needs, with access to routes through the ports of Kuryk and Alat, are currently under consideration. For Uzbekistan, this represents an additional opportunity to strengthen access to Trans-Caspian transport links, while for Azerbaijan it offers a means of expanding the role of its ports and logistics infrastructure in the movement of goods between Central Asia, the Caucasus, and external markets.

Urban development, tourism, and municipal infrastructure are also of particular importance. Major projects involving Azerbaijani investors are being implemented in Tashkent, including hotel, tourism, and residential complexes. Within the bilateral agenda, these investments are significant not only as capital invested in real estate but also as a contribution to the quality of the urban environment and the development of tourism and the service economy.

Light industry remains another closely related area of cooperation. Cotton and textile clusters involving Uzbek companies are being developed in Azerbaijan, allowing the parties to combine the raw-material base, manufacturing expertise, and access to new markets. In the longer term, such cooperation could increase exports of finished textile products and reduce dependence on trade in raw materials.

The sectoral framework is complemented by cooperation in finance, construction materials, electrical engineering, food production, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and jewellery. Projects in these areas are at different stages of development, but collectively they broaden the foundation of bilateral cooperation.

The strength of the current Uzbek-Azerbaijani model lies in its combination of political trust and practical instruments: investment capital, production chains, interregional ties, and Trans-Caspian logistics. In this context, transport routes are becoming more than merely a logistics issue; they are evolving into part of a broader economic architecture connecting markets, enterprises, and regions. Cooperation between the two countries is therefore increasingly viewed as one of the sustainable bridges linking Central Asia, the Caucasus, and external markets.

Uzbekistan’s Business Climate Analysis for 2025 – A CERR Study
Uzbekistan’s Business Climate Analysis for 2025 – A CERR Study

Throughout the year, the business climate remained in positive territory, with an annual average of 57 points, indicating an overall favorable business environment in Uzbekistan.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of its 2025 business climate analysis, based on monthly nationwide surveys of entrepreneurs. Using the collected data, a composite Business Climate Indicator was constructed, reflecting assessments of current business conditions as well as expectations for the next three months.

Dynamics of the Composite Business Climate in Uzbekistan

According to the results of 2025, the annual average value of the Composite Business Climate Index in Uzbekistan amounted to 57 points on a scale from −100 to +100, which is 7% higher than in 2024. The growth was primarily driven by improved assessments of current conditions. The annual average value of the Current Business Conditions Index increased by 22% and reached 47 points.

At the same time, the Expectations Index declined slightly from 68 to 66 points, while remaining at a relatively high level. This reflects a certain degree of caution among enterprises regarding future prospects amid an overall improvement in perceptions of current conditions.

Over the year, the dynamics of the Composite Business Climate Index were uneven. The highest value was recorded in June at 63 points, while the lowest level was observed in January at 52 points. Fluctuations during the year reflected both seasonal factors and businesses’ adaptation to rapidly changing economic conditions.

By the end of the year, a high level of optimism among enterprises persisted. In December, the Business Climate Index stood at 58 points, increasing by 2 points compared to the end of 2024.

Sectoral and Regional Dynamics of the Business Climate Index

From a sectoral perspective, improvements in the business climate were recorded across most sectors of the economy in 2025. In the services sector, the index reached 58 points, representing an increase of 14.7%. In construction, the index stood at 57 points, up by 14.2%, while in industry it reached 54 points, increasing by 6.8%.

In agriculture, the index remained virtually unchanged at 56 points, indicating the persistence of previously established assessments of business conditions in this sector.

From a regional perspective, the annual average Business Climate Index increased compared to the previous year in 11 regions of the republic. In seven regions, the annual average value of the index reached 57 points.

The most pronounced improvement in business climate conditions was observed in Kashkadarya region, where the index increased by 27%, followed by Jizzakh region with a 23% increase and Khorezm region with a 17% increase. In the Republic of Karakalpakstan, growth amounted to 19%.

In Samarkand region, despite a slight decline in the index, the annual average business climate remained in positive territory at 51 points. In Tashkent region, the indicator remained unchanged at 44 points.

Business Expectations Regarding Price Dynamics and Demand

In terms of business expectations, inflationary and market assessments remained moderate in 2025. On average, 23% of companies expected price increases in the near term, which is 2 percentage points lower than in 2024.

During the year, the share of entrepreneurs expecting price increases fluctuated within the range of 18–27%, reaching a peak in April and the lowest levels in September and December. The highest price expectations were observed among enterprises in agriculture and construction, reflecting sector-specific cost structures as well as the impact of seasonal and weather-related factors.

At the same time, assessments of market conditions remained relatively strong. On average, 66% of entrepreneurs expected an increase in demand for goods and services, while 57% of companies planned to expand their workforce. Overall, the results indicate the persistence of positive expectations regarding business activity and employment, alongside more restrained assessments of price dynamics.

Assessments of Demand and Employment

The Employment Index in 2025 amounted to 43 points, corresponding to a 12% increase. The most significant growth was recorded in the services sector at 14%, construction at 17%, industry at 7%, and agriculture at 11%. Throughout the year, employment dynamics remained moderate, with sustained demand for labor.

The Demand Index also showed improvement. Its annual average value reached 48 points, representing an increase of 13%. The largest contribution came from the services sector, where the index increased by 19%, while in construction, industry, and agriculture the Demand Index rose by 6% in each sector. During the year, the index remained relatively stable, with stronger positive assessments in the second half of 2025.

 

Barriers to Entrepreneurial Activity

Over the course of the year, a gradual reduction in barriers to doing business was observed. According to the results, 60% of entrepreneurs reported that they did not face difficulties in conducting business, which is 6% higher than in 2024.

In industry, problems related to electricity supply decreased by 4%, high tax rates by 3%, and access to financing by 3%.

At the same time, in agriculture and construction, financing-related barriers declined significantly, by 7% and 5%, respectively.

Despite the overall reduction in complaints, financing remained the main obstacle cited by entrepreneurs in construction and industry, reported by 11% of respondents in each sector.

Overall, sectoral data indicate an increase in the share of entrepreneurs who do not face significant constraints, as well as a decline in the importance of financial and infrastructure barriers.

The Business Climate Change Indicator is constructed based on the methodology of the Ifo Institute (Germany). As part of the surveys, company managers assess current and expected changes in business activity based on developments in production, demand, prices, and other indicators.

CERR Sector for the Study of Competitiveness of Economic Sectors and Investment Activity
tel.: (78) 150 02 02 (441)

CERR Public Relations and Media Sector
tel.: (78) 150 02 02 (417)

The priority of water resource management reform in Uzbekistan is water conservation and its rational use
The priority of water resource management reform in Uzbekistan is water conservation and its rational use

Today, as global climate changes are observed, the population is growing, and industrial sectors are rapidly developing, the value of water resources is increasing not only in the Central Asian region but also worldwide.

 

According to the data, over the past 30 years, the air temperature in our region has increased by one and a half degrees, as a result of which about a third of the centuries-old glaciers in the highlands have melted, and the volume of water in rivers and streams has decreased slightly.

 

If current climate trends continue, in the next twenty years, the flow of the two large rivers, Amu Darya and Syr Darya, may decrease by 15%. This would result in a 25 percent reduction in per capita water availability and agricultural crop yields.

 

These are not just numbers, but indicators related to the fate and well-being of the people living in the region.

 

According to scientists, by 2040 in some areas of Central Asia, the need for water resources will triple. Over time, economic damage could reach 11% of the region's gross domestic product. The United Nations (UN) warns that countries in the region are currently losing up to US$2 billion a year due to water scarcity and inefficient use. Therefore, if appropriate measures are not taken now, it is inevitable that the countries in our region will face dire consequences of water shortages.

 

Under the leadership of the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, special attention is being paid to the comprehensive development of the water management sector in our republic, the rational use of existing water resources, including the widespread introduction of digital and water-saving irrigation technologies, and remarkable results are being achieved in this regard.

 

In his speech at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly on September 19, 2023, the leader of Uzbekistan emphasized the issue of water resource shortages in Central Asia, supported the establishment of the position of the UN Secretary General's Special Representative on Water Resources, and proposed creating a platform for water-saving technologies in Central Asia. In the process of using the "United Nations-Water Resources" mechanism, he emphasized his support for attracting and implementing the most advanced technologies.

 

This means that Uzbekistan will take the initiative in creating a platform for water-saving technologies in Central Asia, while also seeking to involve the international community in the process.

 

For more than 30 years since its establishment, the International Fund for Saving the Aral has become the most important platform for regional cooperation in the fields of water management and ecology. In the face of new risks and threats arising because of global climate change, the role and importance of the fund are increasing.

 

On September 15, 2023, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev put forward the initiative to develop and implement new, agreed-upon decisions for the long-term perspective within the framework of this structure at the meeting of the Council of Heads of the Founding States of the International Fund for Saving the Aral held in Dushanbe. Reflecting the spirit of today, he emphasized the need to further improve the fund's legal framework and modernize its institutional mechanisms.

It should be noted that in the country’s domestic policy over the past seven years, at the initiative of the President, large-scale reforms in the water sector have been implemented. To manage state policy in the field of water management, a separate Ministry of Water Resources was created and the Concept for the development of the industry for the period until 2030 was approved.

 

As a logical continuation of these reforms and to solve systemic problems at the middle and upper levels of the water management system, on May 7, 2024, the President of Uzbekistan signed the decree "On Setting Priorities for the Introduction and Development of a Modern Management System in Water Resources." According to this document, the activity of the Ministry of Water Resources was divided into three parts, setting up a vertical management system. At the upper level is the management of the state water policy, the regulator; the middle level is engaged in the operation and construction of water management facilities and the introduction of business processes into the sector; and the lower-level handles supplying water directly to consumers.

 

In the middle stage, an agency for the exploitation of water resource facilities is being set up that operates as an independent legal entity. The agency includes the Ministry of Water Resources of the Republic of Karakalpakhstan and regional irrigation systems basin departments, main canals, water reservoirs, and pumping station utilization departments, as well as land-improvement expeditions.

 

The department for the implementation of water management projects participates as a customer in projects funded by the budget and foreign investments. The decree envisages a 22% increase in the salary of middle- and high-level employees working in the ministry system, starting on July 1, 2024, and a 60% increase starting in 2025. It should be mentioned that starting in January 2024, the salary of lower-level employees has been doubled, and several incentive mechanisms are being used.

 

As a result of the accurate calculation of available water resources, special attention is paid to the introduction of water-saving technologies, resulting in abundant and high-quality harvests from agricultural crops. Nevertheless, the prevention of water scarcity remains one of the most important directions for Uzbekistan.

 

Uzbekistan is a country with a large water infrastructure in the Central Asian region; the total irrigated cropland exceeds 4.3 million hectares.

 

As one of the five priority directions of the "Uzbekistan-2030" strategy, which defines the goals of sustainable development of the country, the task of saving water resources and environmental protection is emphasized, placing great responsibility on water management employees.

 

To reduce water losses in irrigation networks, the year 2024 was announced as a "breakthrough year for concreting canals" in the water industry at the initiative of the President. For this purpose, 5,000 kilometers of irrigation networks, of which 1,500 kilometers are main and inter-farm and 3,500 kilometers are internal, have been concreted this year. To date, 525 kilometers of canals have been reconstructed, of which 355 kilometers have been concreted. The length of canals concreted by clusters and farms has exceeded 13,500 kilometers.

 

In recent years, the areas covered by water-saving technologies in the country have reached 1.3 million hectares. Of this, drip irrigation accounts for 478,000 hectares, sprinkler irrigation for 55,000 hectares, and discrete method irrigation for 29,000 hectares. Over 700,000 hectares have been leveled using laser leveling equipment.

 

Work on the introduction of water-saving technologies, which started in previous years, is being continued consistently. This year alone, it is planned to introduce cost-effective technologies on 500,000 hectares of land and to fully cover all irrigated farming areas in the country with such technologies by 2030.

 

All possibilities and resources are being used for this. Today, the number of local enterprises producing equipment and components for water-saving technologies in Uzbekistan has reached 55, with plans to increase this number in the future.

 

In recent years, 11,446 "Smart Water" devices, online water level monitoring meters in 1,704 pumping units, and online monitoring of seepage water levels have been installed in 6,746 reclamation monitoring wells. To manage water resources from one point without human intervention, the management processes of 65 large water management facilities were automated.

 

It is planned to save 8 billion cubic meters of water in 2024 through the concreting of channels, the introduction of water-saving technologies, the digitization of the industry, the implementation of "smart" devices, and effective water management.

 

It should be noted that 60 percent of the irrigated cropland in the country is supplied with water through pumps. There are more than 1,600 pumping stations in the Ministry's system, and due to their modernization, installation of modern energy-saving devices, and the introduction of public-private partnerships, electricity consumption has been reduced by 1.5 billion kWh in the last seven years.

 

In the coming years, the total cost of the water industry will be $6.0 trillion. Agreements for 463 public-private partnership projects worth significant amounts in soums were signed. In 2023, all water management facilities in five districts and 300 pumping stations across the republic will be transferred to the private sector.

 

This transfer increases work efficiency, saves up to 30% on electricity at pumping stations, and reduces salary deductions by 13%.

 

The "Irrigators' School" was launched in cooperation with the Ministry of Water Resources, the "Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers," the National Research University, and "Agrobank." Highly qualified specialists from abroad are organizing one-week-long free training courses for designers, contractors, managers of farms, and cluster enterprises from all districts of the republic.

 

In short, life itself proves that the only solution to mitigate the water shortage in our region is to save water and use it wisely.

 

Press service of the Ministry of Water Resources
of the Republic of Uzbekistan