The text of the article is in Uzbek!

The upcoming visit of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan to Serbia could mark an important stage in the development of bilateral relations. Over the past year, the political dialogue between Tashkent and Belgrade has intensified noticeably and taken on a more systematic character. Against this backdrop, one of the key tasks now is to translate the political engagement achieved so far into concrete trade, investment, transport, and humanitarian projects.

The current momentum builds on relations that have developed over three decades. Serbia recognized Uzbekistan’s independence on 31 December 1991, and the two countries established diplomatic relations on 18 January 1995. In the early years, the diplomatic mission of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in Tashkent maintained contacts between the two sides. In 2003, the mission ceased operations amid the economic situation in Serbia at the time.

Relations gained new momentum in 2025. In September, on the sidelines of events in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Second World War, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev held conversation with President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic. A key milestone followed on 28–31 October, when the Serbian leader paid his first official visit to Uzbekistan. Following the talks, the two heads of state signed a Joint Declaration and adopted a package of intergovernmental and interagency documents covering the economy, investment, education, tourism, labor migration, and other areas of cooperation.

The mutual accreditation of ambassadors marked another important institutional step. On 7 July 2025, the first Ambassador of Uzbekistan to Serbia presented his credentials to the President of Serbia, and on 27 October the Ambassador of Serbia to Uzbekistan presented his credentials to the Uzbek side.

High-level contacts continued in 2026. In April, the foreign ministers of the two countries held talks on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, and in May, Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Duric visited Uzbekistan. On 18 May, Sh.Mirziyoyev and A.Vucic met again on the sidelines of the World Urban Forum in Baku. In July, the two leaders held a phone conversation, and on 3 August, the foreign ministries of the two countries held a third round of political consultations in Belgrade.

The political dialogue is gradually being complemented by growing ties between the two countries’ legislatures. The chambers of the Oliy Majlis have set up an inter-parliamentary group for cooperation with the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia. Senate Chairwoman T.Narbaeva visited Belgrade in June 2026 to take part in the IPU Global Conference of Women Parliamentarians, and a few weeks later Tashkent hosted a delegation from the “Serbia–Uzbekistan” parliamentary friendship group, led by its chairman A.Markovic.

The political and institutional foundation now in place creates favorable conditions for expanding economic cooperation. At the same time, its current scale still falls well short of the existing potential. In 2025, bilateral trade turnover totaled around $12 million. 9 enterprises with Serbian capital currently operate in Uzbekistan, pointing to considerable room for expanding both trade and industrial cooperation.

The cultural and humanitarian dimension of bilateral ties is also gradually expanding. An important step in this direction came in October 2025, when the two sides signed an agreement establishing partnership relations between Tashkent and Belgrade during the Serbian President’s visit. The agreement opens additional opportunities for direct contacts between the two capitals and for joint initiatives.

The progress achieved over the past year lays the groundwork for moving to more systematic work across several areas.

First, significant potential remains in trade and economic cooperation. Priorities here could include broadening the range of Uzbek exports, increasing the share of high-value-added products, and establishing a preferential trade regime. In February 2026, Deputy Prime Minister of Uzbekistan J.Khodjaev and Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia A.Mesarovic identified this as one of the priorities for further work.

Both sides have solid economic grounds for expanding trade. Uzbekistan has a growing industrial base in the textile, chemical, food, and machine-building sectors. Serbia, for its part, enjoys preferential access to the EU market and an extensive network of free trade agreements. This creates opportunities not only for increasing mutual deliveries but also for developing industrial cooperation with a view to reaching third markets.

Second, developing transport connectivity holds practical interest. In February 2026, an Uzbek delegation held talks with representatives of Serbia’s transport sector in Belgrade. In separate meetings, the delegation discussed prospects for rail cooperation with Serbian Railways Infrastructure and explored the possibility of launching direct flights between Tashkent and Belgrade with Air Serbia.

Launching direct flights could substantially ease business, tourism, education, and humanitarian contacts between the two countries. Developing freight links between Central Asia and the Balkans also represents a promising direction. Going forward, growing freight volumes on routes involving Uzbekistan could further strengthen transport connectivity between Central Asia and European markets.

Third, developing labor mobility carries particular significance. Uzbekistan has consistently built up a system of organized external labor migration and established itself as a reliable partner in training skilled personnel. According to the Migration Agency, the country has concluded 48 agreements with 23 states in this area.

This experience provides a practical foundation for building a similar mechanism with Serbia. Reaching agreements would make it possible to establish transparent channels for organized employment, strengthen the protection of citizens, and, at the same time, promote regulated labor mobility between the two countries.

Fourth, education, science, and technology cooperation offer significant opportunities. An intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in education, science, and culture, signed in October 2025, has strengthened the legal basis for this cooperation. One practical avenue could involve Uzbek students participating in Serbian state educational programs, including the “World in Serbia” scholarship program.

Ongoing transformations in Uzbekistan’s higher education system are creating further opportunities to expand such cooperation. The country now has 215 universities, including 30 branches of foreign educational institutions. Uzbek universities continue to strengthen their standing in international rankings, while joint programs with leading foreign educational institutions continue to expand.

Building on the existing institutional foundation, joint educational programs and research projects could become promising directions going forward, particularly in technical fields, digital technologies, and workforce training for priority sectors of both countries’ economies. Such cooperation could give the relationship a long-term character, complementing political contacts with lasting professional and institutional ties.

Fifth, tourism and cultural exchanges serve as an additional resource for rapprochement. In April 2026, the relevant agencies of the two countries discussed joint projects in film tourism, PR promotion, and familiarization trips for media representatives and bloggers. In practical terms, such initiatives could not only help increase tourist flows but also expand direct contacts between the two societies.

In sum, over a relatively short period, Uzbekistan and Serbia have built a fairly solid political and institutional foundation for further developing their relations. At the same time, the level of political dialogue still clearly outpaces the scale of trade, economic, and investment cooperation. The trajectory of the next stage will therefore largely depend on the two sides’ ability to translate the political capital they have accumulated into concrete projects and durable cooperation mechanisms.

The upcoming visit of the President of Uzbekistan to Serbia could give this process additional momentum. Its practical significance will depend above all on progress in trade and investment, transport, labor mobility, education, and tourism. Implementing such initiatives will help fill the rapidly developing political dialogue with more substantial economic and humanitarian content.

Madinabonu Kayumova,
Leading Researcher
of ISRS under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

As the most important task of judicial reform being implemented in the Republic of Uzbekistan, important work is being carried out to ensure constitutional human rights and freedoms, strengthening the authority of the judiciary, which is considered an important guarantee of effective protection of human rights and to ensure the true independence of the courts.

Also, further expansion of the population’s access to justice within the framework of the principle “New Uzbekistan - New Court” requires accelerating the reform of the judicial system and introducing advanced international standards into the field. We can also observe confirmation of this in the corresponding positions of our state in the ratings of international organizations. Thus, according to the results of the Rule of Law Index ranking for 2022 (worldjusticeproject.org), Uzbekistan took 78th place out of 140 countries with an indicator of 0.50 points, of which 75th place in terms of civil justice and 65th in terms of criminal justice.

The fact that the update of the Constitution on the basis of generally recognized principles and norms of international law is enshrined in the preface of the updated Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan is a clear expression of recognition of the supremacy of generally recognized international law.

Article 15 of the Constitution determines that international treaties of the Republic of Uzbekistan, along with generally recognized principles and norms of international law, are an integral part of the legal system of Uzbekistan. According to part four of this article, if an international treaty of Uzbekistan establishes rules other than those provided for by the law of the Republic of Uzbekistan, then the rules of the international treaty of the Republic of Uzbekistan are applied.

Article 17 of the Constitution especially emphasizes that the Republic of Uzbekistan is a full-fledged subject of international relations; it is established that international law is based on generally accepted principles and norms. The application by courts of generally accepted principles and norms of international law is permitted in cases where existing laws contradict these international principles and norms.

Article 11 of the Constitution states that the system of state power of Uzbekistan, which is considered a full-fledged subject of international relations, is based on the principles of separation of powers into legislative, executive and judicial. It should be especially noted here that in accordance with Article 131 of Chapter XXIII, dedicated to the judiciary, the judicial system and the procedure for the activities of courts in the Republic of Uzbekistan are determined by law; the creation of emergency courts is not allowed.

In accordance with Article 1 of the law “On Courts” in the new edition (2021), the judicial power in Uzbekistan operates independently of the legislative, executive powers, political parties, and other public associations. Judicial power is exercised only by the courts. It was established that no other bodies or persons have the right to assign powers to the judiciary.

Article 2 of this law defines the judicial system, which consists of the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Uzbekistan; Supreme Court of the Republic of Uzbekistan; military courts; Courts of the Republic of Karakalpakstan, regional and Tashkent city courts; Administrative Court of the Republic of Karakalpakstan, administrative courts of regions and the city of Tashkent; interdistrict, district, city courts for civil cases; district and city courts for criminal cases; interdistrict, district, city economic courts; interdistrict administrative courts. It has been established that in the Republic of Uzbekistan specialization of judges by category of cases can be carried out, but the creation of emergency courts is not allowed.

As noted in Article 4 of this law, the main tasks of the court are to protect the rights and freedoms of citizens, state and public interests, rights and legally protected interests of legal entities and individuals guaranteed by the Constitution and other laws, international treaties of Uzbekistan, as well as international acts on human rights entrepreneurs. The activities of the court are aimed at ensuring the rule of law, social justice, civil peace and harmony, that is, it indicates that it is implemented in accordance with international agreements and international human rights instruments.

It is worth noting that in recent years, important documents have been adopted to ensure the compliance of the judicial system of our country with generally recognized international standards. These include such important historical documents as decrees of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan “On measures to further reform the judicial and legal system, strengthen guarantees of reliable protection of the rights and freedoms of citizens” (2016), “On measures to radically improve the structure and increase efficiency of the judicial system of the Republic of Uzbekistan" (2017), "On measures to further improve the judicial system and increase confidence in the judiciary" (2020), "On measures to radically improve the system of financing the activities of the judiciary" (2021), decrees of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated January 28, 2022 “On the development strategy of the new Uzbekistan for 2022 - 2026”, Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated January 16, 2023 “On additional measures to further expand access to justice and increase efficiency of the courts."

The Decree of the President of Uzbekistan dated January 16, 2023 “On additional measures to further expand access to justice and increase the efficiency of the courts” provides for:

in order to ensure the effective use of resources involved in the implementation of judicial activities, on the basis of advanced foreign experience, transfer the powers to consider certain categories of civil, economic and administrative offenses to the relevant administrative bodies:

determine the procedure for completing cases of certain categories of criminal, civil, economic and administrative offenses in lower courts;

What is relevant is that issues such as reconciliation of parties in civil and economic cases, development of reasonable proposals for the widespread introduction of the institution of mediation are raised.

It is appropriate to recognize here that the main idea and provisions of the “Universal Declaration of Human Rights” have found their full expression in the updated Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan, which is considered the basis of our national legislation.

It is known that the “Universal Declaration of Human Rights” consists of a preamble and a total of 30 articles, and if all its provisions are sequentially considered, then one can note the consistency and consistency of the content with the provisions of the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan on human rights. For example, you can notice the similarity between the contents of Article 3 of the “Universal Declaration of Human Rights”, which reads: “Every person has the right to life, liberty and security of person” and Article 25 of the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan: “The right to life is the inalienable right of every person and is protected by law. Encroachment on human life is a grave crime.”

Also, the rule that “no one shall be subjected to torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment” in Article 5 of the Declaration corresponds to the second paragraph of Article 26 of the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan “No one shall be subjected to torture, violence, other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment." One may also note the reflection of the provision of Article 9 of the Declaration that no one shall be arrested, detained or persecuted without cause in the second paragraph of Article 29 of our Constitution “No one shall be subjected to arrest, detention, detention, detention or other restriction freedom except on the basis of the law" and in the third paragraph - "When detained, a person must be explained in a language he understands his rights and the grounds for detention"

Article 10 of the Declaration enshrines the right of every person to demand an independent and impartial court and its reflection in international legal acts to which the Republic of Uzbekistan has acceded inspires confidence that only an independent court can protect the rights of every citizen through an impartial and open consideration of the case in court. In this regard, it should be noted that the reforms carried out on the basis of the Action Strategy for the Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2017-2021, put forward at the initiative of the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, taking into account international standards, laid the foundation for democratization and liberalization of the judicial and legal sphere, ensuring genuine independence of the judiciary, protection of the rights and legitimate interests of citizens.

In order to improve the judicial system and ensure the independence of the courts, one of the important steps was the creation of the Supreme Judicial Council of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Supreme Court and the Higher Economic Court were merged, the activities of the Supreme Court were improved, the Economic Courts were reorganized into economic courts, 71 inter-district, district (city) economic courts were empowered to hear cases in the first instance. The first term of work as a judge is five years, then ten years and an indefinite term. The powers of the courts to independently resolve their financial, logistical and technical issues were withdrawn from the judiciary and transferred to the Supreme Court, which led to the independence of the courts from the executive authorities and ensuring their independence. The institution of returning a criminal case to the court for additional investigation was abolished, thereby putting an end to unnecessary censorship, and people were spared unnecessary confusion and nervousness. It was strictly established that a person’s guilt in committing a crime should be based only on evidence proven in court, that is, it was strictly forbidden to make decisions based on rumors and assumptions. In order to fully ensure fair justice, verify the legality, validity and fairness of court decisions, an audit authority was created.

One of the important problems of the judicial reform system is the new system for training qualified and mature judges and judicial staff. Increasing the population's trust in judicial institutions by the Supreme Council of Judges, ensuring the stability of justice and the rule of law, serves to transform the court literally into a “Fortress of Justice” and improve the level of justice.

The introduction of the institution of a plea agreement and its implementation in the criminal procedural legislation of our country is also an important factor in increasing the protection of human rights, freedoms and legitimate interests recognized in international law.

In accordance with the Decree of the President of Uzbekistan dated January 28, 2022 “On the new development strategy of Uzbekistan for 2022-2026”, about 300 laws were adopted in 2017-2021, more than 4 thousand resolutions of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan aimed at fundamental reforming all spheres of state and public life in five priority areas of development of our country.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in his report dated December 7, 2019, “The supremacy of the Constitution and laws is the most important criterion for a legal democratic state and civil society,” dedicated to the 27th anniversary of the adoption of the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan, especially noted “ensuring the true independence of the courts is our highest priority. We must not allow the courts to be influenced by certain officials. In this regard, it is necessary to strengthen responsibility for interference in court cases or pressure on the court.”

The issue of ensuring compliance of the judicial system of Uzbekistan with generally accepted international standards will continue to remain relevant. In addition, practical measures are ongoing to harmonize national legislation with international legal standards in the field of human rights. After all, constitutional reforms today require an approach to constitutional norms, which are the main legal criterion that determines the value of a person in the life of our society, taking into account modern realities and international legal standards.

Ayub Muhammadiev, professor of the Department of Civil Law Sciences of the University of Public Security of the Republik of Uzbekistan, doctor of Law

Uzbekistan is a country of youth. According to statistical data, about 60% of Uzbekistan's population is under the age of 30. Thus, over 18 million residents of Uzbekistan are young people, and by 2040 this number could reach 25 million. This creates unique opportunities and specific challenges for the state in terms of providing education, employment, and social integration for the youth. On February 21 of this year, a Presidential Decree approved the State Program for the implementation of the "Uzbekistan - 2030" Strategy in the Year of Support for Youth and Business. It outlines a number of tasks aimed at addressing the problems faced by young people and realizing their potential.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has prioritized creating favorable conditions to ensure the rights and interests of the younger generation. This includes providing them with access to quality education, meaningful employment opportunities, and avenues to realize their talents and abilities. Significant efforts have been made in this direction as part of state policy.

A vivid confirmation of this is the adoption and consistent implementation of over 100 legislative acts concerning this sphere within a short period. The inclusion of specific articles on the rights and interests of the younger generation in the updated Constitution of Uzbekistan undoubtedly opens new opportunities for further strengthening the legal framework and elevating practical work in this area to a new level.

During the past period, a completely new vertical management system for working with youth has been established.

In all neighborhoods (mahallas) of the country, youth leaders are active. Thanks to this system, over 100 different opportunities have been created for youth within the neighborhoods.

A system called the "Youth Notebook" has been established, through which over 1.1 million young people have received assistance across
25 different areas totaling 1.3 trillion UZS. Specifically, tens of thousands of students from low-income families have had their tuition fees covered under fee-based contracts.

The number of higher educational institutions in the country has almost tripled, reaching 199, and enrollment has increased from 9 to
38 percent. This expansion opens up extensive opportunities for youth to acquire modern knowledge and professions.

In the country, 210 youth industrial and entrepreneurial zones have been established, with 2,500 projects implemented amounting to 4 trillion UZS. As a result, the number of young entrepreneurs has doubled, surpassing 200,000.

In recent years, more than 750 young people who make a significant contribution to the prosperity of the Motherland have received state awards.

It is heartening that the youth of the country are effectively utilizing the opportunities provided and inspiring with their achievements in various fields.

For further effective implementation of State youth policy in Uzbekistan, it is necessary to continue effective reforms to create a solid organizational, legal and institutional framework.

First of all, work will continue to develop new constitutional norms on the rights of young people in existing legislation.

At the same time, in the coming period, special attention will be paid to the qualitative execution of tasks defined in the State Program on the implementation of the Strategy "Uzbekistan - 2030" in the Year of Support for Youth and Business.

Thus, every region, ministry and department has begun to introduce a new approach to work with young people. The improvement of scientific and analytical work on the study of youth problems and the training of promising personnel is considered relevant.

Today, rapid measures are being taken to increase the number of young people learning foreign languages under the "Ibrat Farzandlari" project
to 1 million, and the number of young readers under the "Mutolaa" program up to 1.5 million. Additional infrastructure is being built in the regions for this purpose. At the same time, special attention should be paid to the creation of broader conditions for the meaningful organization of leisure activities and the realization of young people's talents and abilities.

Thus, the systemic reforms carried out in Uzbekistan have led to significant achievements in the field of education and the spiritual, intellectual, physical and moral development of young people. The increase in the number of educational institutions, the improvement in the quality of education, the active participation of young people in scientific and cultural events, and the implementation of social projects - all this is evidence of positive changes and the strengthening of the foundations for the harmonious development of the younger generation.

Bekzod Jurabayev,
Chief scientific researcher of the Institute of Legislation and Legal Policy under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Chairman of the Council of Young Scientists of the Institute

Economic relations between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan have been steadily developing in recent years, forming a model of mutually beneficial and sustainable partnership. The introduction of a free trade regime between the two countries has strengthened the institutional foundation of this cooperation and contributes to the expansion of trade and investment ties.

Institutional Cooperation: Systematic and Continuous Dialogue

Intergovernmental institutions play an important role in the development of economic relations. In particular, within the framework of the Intergovernmental Commission, which has been operating since 1998, 14 meetings have been held, with the most recent one taking place in June 2025 in Baku. Within this platform, issues of trade, investment, and industrial cooperation are discussed on a systematic basis.

In addition, three “Uzbekistan–Azerbaijan Regional Forums” have been organized to promote interregional cooperation, and the fourth forum is planned for 2026, which indicates the continued expansion of bilateral relations.

The Uzbekistan–Azerbaijan Business Council, established in 2020, also serves as an important mechanism for enhancing economic cooperation by strengthening interaction between business communities.

Trade Turnover: Strong Growth Dynamics

The dynamics of trade turnover between the two countries demonstrate a positive trend. According to the results of 2025, total trade turnover amounted to USD 307.3 million, increasing by 14.6% compared to the previous year.

Exports reached USD 227.3 million, growing by 7.8%, while imports amounted to USD 80 million, showing a significant increase of 39.3%. This indicates a balanced and diversified development of trade relations.

In the first quarter of 2026, growth rates accelerated further: trade turnover reached USD 80.1 million, increasing by 42.5%. These figures confirm the strong momentum in the development of economic ties between the two countries.

Export Structure: Diversification and New Opportunities

In 2025, exports from Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan increased across 230 product categories. Particularly strong growth was observed in tobacco products, copper wire, grapes, nuts, household appliances, and petroleum products.

At the same time, exports were carried out in 116 new product categories totaling USD 7.8 million, which reflects the ongoing expansion of trade relations between the two countries. This plays an important role in diversifying the export structure and broadening the range of goods.

Imports: Mutually Beneficial Cooperation

Significant growth has also been observed in imports. In 2025, import volume increased by 39.3%, reaching USD 80 million. The main growth was driven by sugar, aluminum, metal pipes, and petroleum products.

This indicates the growing importance of Azerbaijan in supplying Uzbekistan’s economy with essential raw materials and industrial resources.

Transport and Logistics: Strategic Connectivity

Another key area of cooperation is transport and logistics. In 2025, total cargo transportation volume reached 154.3 thousand tons, increasing by 28.3%.

In the first quarter of 2026, this figure rose by 88% to 58.7 thousand tons. The increase in transportation volumes by rail, road, and air reflects the strengthening of logistics chains between the two countries.

The growth in transit cargo transportation (1.4 times in 2025) further enhances the strategic role of Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan in regional transport corridors.

In addition, the operation of 14 regular weekly flights on the Tashkent–Baku route demonstrates a high level of transport connectivity between the two countries.

The above analysis demonstrates that economic relations between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan are steadily developing at a high pace. The presence of institutional cooperation mechanisms, sustained growth in trade turnover, diversification of export and import structures, and the expansion of transport links significantly enhance the strategic importance of this partnership.

Over the past few years, Central Asia and the Caucasus have emerged as some of the fastest-growing regions in technology and innovation. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan are increasingly strengthening their positions on the global startup map, attracting international investors, technology companies, and entrepreneurs. One of the key platforms bringing together the region’s innovation ecosystem has become the international INMerge summit.

What is INMerge?

INMerge is an international innovation summit that brings together startups, investors, corporations, government representatives, and technology communities from across Central Eurasia. Over the past five years, the project has evolved from a relatively small corporate gathering into one of the region’s leading technology forums.

Today, INMerge hosts participants from Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Türkiye, and other countries. Discussions focus on investment, artificial intelligence, startup development, digital infrastructure, and cross-border collaboration. Most importantly, however, the forum helps transform networking opportunities and ideas into real partnerships, projects, and investment deals.

In 2026, INMerge expanded beyond a single-city format by launching a regional Roadshow initiative. Ahead of the main summit, the team is organizing a series of events across key locations in the region. One of the central stops became Tashkent — a city that clearly demonstrated how rapidly Central Asia’s role in the global technology landscape is evolving.

Today, the three countries are shaping a new regional ecosystem, where each contributes its own strategic strengths.

Uzbekistan is now considered one of the fastest-growing tech markets in the region. Over the past year, venture investment volumes increased more than fivefold, the number of startups doubled to over 950, and Tashkent entered the world’s top 100 startup ecosystems for the first time. The country is actively opening up to international investors and steadily becoming a new destination for technology-driven businesses. Uzbekistan is already home to two unicorns.

Kazakhstan continues to focus on infrastructure development and a systematic approach to building its startup ecosystem. The country is developing a large-scale $1 billion fund of funds and has spent several years consistently creating conditions that allow startups to scale not only domestically, but internationally as well. Kazakhstan has also produced two unicorns.

In 2024, IT Park Uzbekistan and Astana Hub took another important step toward regional integration by launching the Central Asian Innovation Hubs initiative. The platform opened access for Central Asian startups to joint programs, international venues, and global accelerators. Today, Azerbaijan is increasingly exploring participation in this ecosystem, gradually contributing to the formation of a unified technological space connecting Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Azerbaijan, in turn, is becoming a platform that connects different markets and innovation communities. Baku was recently named Startup City of the Year, while INMerge Ventures became one of the country’s first locally registered venture capital funds. The city is now emerging as a hub for dialogue between corporations, investors, and technology teams from across the broader region.

At INMerge, this evolving dynamic is described as an “innovation corridor.” It is not simply about neighboring countries collaborating — it is about creating a shared ecosystem where ideas, technologies, investments, and talent can move freely across borders.

From Local Startups to the Global Stage

For startups today, building a product is no longer enough. Founders also need access to investors, strategic networks, and international markets. This is why platforms like INMerge are becoming increasingly important across the region.

One of the clearest examples is the startup competition held in Tashkent. Winners receive not only visibility and recognition, but also the opportunity to present their projects at the final summit in Baku before international investors and major corporations. This model helps connect local ecosystems into a larger regional network, giving young startups a real opportunity for international growth.

The final stage of INMerge will take place on October 8–9 in Baku, bringing together startup founders, investors, corporate leaders, and government officials who are actively shaping the future of Central Eurasia’s innovation economy.

A region that until recently remained outside the global technology spotlight is steadily becoming a new center of growth. And today, INMerge is playing a key role in accelerating that transformation.

Following the results of Q1 2026, the ranking of large banks underwent notable changes. While the leading group remained intact, positions within the segment were reshuffled. In the small-bank category, movements were also significant, pointing to continued realignment and stronger competition across the sector.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms presented the updated Bank Ranking based on the results of the Banking Activity Index for Q1 2026.

The study covers 34 commercial banks of the republic, including 20 classified as large financial institutions by scale and branch network, while the remaining 14 were categorized as small banks.

The methodology is based on the analysis of 27 indicators benchmarked against national averages and international standards, including the requirements of the Basel Committee. The ranking serves as an important tool for enhancing transparency and strengthening confidence in the financial system. This approach is consistent with international practice and is widely used by leading financial institutions.

Financial Results for Q1 2026

During the reporting period, total assets of the banking sector amounted to 932.3 tn sums ($76.3 bn), while liabilities reached 793.9 tn sums ($64.9 bn). Lending increased by 14%, while deposits grew by 32%. The aggregate capital of the banking system was fully denominated in the national currency. Net profit reached 3.1 tn sums ($254 mn), which is 36.3% higher than a year earlier.

During the period under review, the share of non-performing loans declined to 3.3%, compared with 4.5% a year earlier, indicating improved portfolio quality. At the same time, in several banks the ratio remains above the sector average. Capital adequacy indicators exceed minimum regulatory requirements by more than 1.4 times, confirming the resilience of the banking sector.

Large Banks Activity Ranking for Q1 2026

The results of Q1 2026 show that despite the relative stability at the top of the ranking, both categories of banks recorded notable positional changes.

In the large-bank segment, performance was mixed. Out of 20 banks, 7 improved their positions, 8 declined, and 5 retained their previous places. This reflects a high level of competition and the ongoing redistribution of market positions.

The most notable progress was demonstrated by Tenge Bank, which moved up by 6 positions. Three more banks — Agrobank, Invest Finance Bank, and Xalq Bank — advanced by 2 positions each. Positive momentum was also recorded by Ipak Yuli Bank, Asia Alliance Bank, and Hamkorbank, all of which improved their standing in the overall ranking.

At the same time, several large banks recorded lower activity levels. The most significant decline was observed at Orient Finans Bank and Trast Bank, which fell by 5 and 3 positions respectively.

Changes Across Key Indicators

Financial Intermediation. The leading positions were taken by Invest Finance Bank, Anor Bank and Kapitalbank. In this ranking, Davr Bank and Hamkorbank fell by 4 positions, while Ipoteka Bank declined by 1 position.

Financial Accessibility. The leaders were Agrobank, Anor Bank and BRB. Under this indicator, declines were mainly observed among leading banks: Kapitalbank (-3 positions), Hamkorbank (-7), Asia Alliance Bank (-1), Ipak Yuli Bank (-5), and Trast Bank (-6). The strongest improvement in this ranking was recorded by Tenge Bank (+8), Xalq Bank, Davr Bank (+5), and Agrobank (+4).

Capital Adequacy. The top positions were occupied by Orient Finance Bank, Trast Bank and Halk Bank. At the same time, Agrobank dropped by 4 positions, while Aloqa Bank declined by 2 positions.

Asset Quality. The leaders were Hamkorbank, Asia Alliance Bank and Ipak Yuli Bank. Turonbank fell by 5 positions, while Asakabank, Mikrokreditbank, SQB, Trast Bank and Anor Bank each declined by 2 positions.

Management Efficiency. The highest positions were held by SQB, Orient Finance Bank and NBU. At the same time, Asaka Bank dropped by 5 positions, while BRB declined by 4 positions.

Profitability. The leaders were Hamkorbank, Trast Bank and Asia Alliance Bank. Turon Bank, after falling by 3 positions, ranked last. In this ranking, Kapitalbank, Asia Alliance Bank, Anor Bank and Davr Bank declined by 2 positions, while Ipoteka Bank and Mikrokreditbank fell by 1 position.

Liquidity. The leaders were Asia Alliance Bank, Ipak Yuli Bank and Trast Bank. At the same time, Mikrokreditbank, Ipoteka Bank, Anor Bank and SQB each declined by 1 position.

Small Banks Activity Ranking for Q1 2026

The small-bank group remained relatively stable, with leading institutions retaining their positions. The main changes in this category were concentrated in the middle segment, where several banks improved their standing due to stronger financial intermediation and higher profitability.

Within this group, 8 out of 14 financial institutions improved their rankings. The most notable gains were recorded by AVO Bank and Apex Bank, both rising by 3 positions. TBC became the leader of the ranking.

At the same time, 5 banks moved down, with the sharpest decline recorded by Octobank, which lost 6 positions. Saderat Bank, Garant Bank, and Ziraat Bank each rose by 2 positions. The ranking was rounded out by Open Bank and Uzum Bank, both up by 1 position.

Jafar Khidirov, CERR

CERR Banking and Financial Sector Research Sector
Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (441)

CERR Public Relations and Media Sector
Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (417)

Issues of practical implementation of agreements at the highest level and promotion of investment projects were at the center of attention during the telephone conversation held on December 17 between the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Amir of the State of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani.

The Head of our state warmly congratulated the Amir of Qatar on the national holiday - Foundation Day, wishing him health, well-being and success, as well as peace and prosperity to the friendly Qatari people.

Current matters of further expansion of multifaceted cooperation and strengthening of strategic partnership between our countries were discussed.

The results of active contacts and exchanges were positively assessed. In November this year, the first meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission and business forum were successfully held in Doha. In October, the Qatar Culture Week events were successfully organized in Tashkent.

With the participation of leading Qatari companies, investment projects are being implemented in the field of energy, development of transport and tourism infrastructure, agriculture, healthcare and other priority areas.

There is a regular direct flight service between the capitals, which facilitates the growth of mutual tourist flow.

During the conversation, the heads of state paid particular attention to the schedule of upcoming events in 2025, including the second dialogue summit “Central Asia - Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf”.

Exchange of views on topical issues on the international agenda also took place.

1. Introduction

Central and South Asia form one of Eurasia’s most significant geographic junctions. Central Asia connects the continent’s east–west and north–south routes, while South Asia contains one of the world’s largest population bases and consumer markets. Taken together, the countries of the two subregions have a population of more than 2 billion people; however, their direct economic interaction remains below its potential level.

The scale of the potential market is confirmed by the figures: in 2024, the population of South Asia was approximately 1.68 billion people, while the region’s combined GDP was about US$4.5 trillion. At the same time, the economy of the five Central Asian countries in 2024 amounted to approximately US$489 billion. However, the level of interregional integration remains low: even within South Asia, intraregional trade is estimated at around 5% of total trade turnover, which is significantly lower than the ASEAN figure^[1][2][3].

This is evident in trade statistics: Central Asia’s main trade flows continue to be oriented toward Russia, China, the European Union, Türkiye, and the Middle East, while trade with South Asia occupies a comparatively limited niche.

The underused potential is explained not by a lack of demand, but by structural constraints. Between the two subregions, there are mountain barriers, complex cross-border routes, differing levels of integration into international supply chains, non-uniform customs and technical procedures, as well as the Afghanistan factor, which is simultaneously the shortest connecting link and the most sensitive element of the regional architecture. Therefore, the issue of connectivity has not only commercial but also strategic significance.

The restoration of economic ties between Central and South Asia should not be viewed as a romanticized return to historical routes. In modern conditions, it is a matter of competitiveness, supply-chain security, energy resilience, and diversification of foreign economic directions. For the countries of Central Asia, the southern route opens shorter access to the ports of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. For the countries of South Asia, it creates an opportunity to gain access to energy resources, food products, industrial goods, and new markets in Eurasia.

Uzbekistan occupies a special place in this logic. It is located in the central part of the region, borders all Central Asian states and Afghanistan, and therefore is capable of forming a link between the internal markets of Central Asia and the southern direction. At the same time, the role of a connector state means more than the transit of goods. It includes the coordination of infrastructure projects, the development of logistics services, the improvement of institutional quality, the creation of an analytical basis for decision-making, and the involvement of the private sector in interregional projects.

2. Historical and geographical preconditions for connectivity

The historical connection between Central and South Asia was formed long before the emergence of modern state borders. The cities of Transoxiana, Khorasan, Bactria, and northern India were part of a network of caravan routes and exchanges of artisanal goods, knowledge, religious traditions, and financial practices. Samarkand, Bukhara, Balkh, Merv, Kabul, Peshawar, and Lahore, in different periods, served as trade and cultural hubs linking the Eurasian space.

However, historical connectedness does not automatically translate into economic integration today. Modern supply chains depend on railways, highways, ports, energy networks, digital cargo-tracking systems, insurance, banking settlements, and predictable rules. Where even one of these elements is absent, transit becomes expensive, slow, and risky.

The geography of the region creates both incentives and constraints. On the one hand, the distance from Uzbekistan’s southern borders to northern Afghanistan is relatively short, and the route through Afghanistan is potentially the shortest overland path from Central Asia to Pakistan and onward to the ports of the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, mountain ranges, differences in railway gauge, the limited capacity of border infrastructure, security issues, and insufficient standardization of procedures increase the cost of projects.

Uzbekistan’s geographical role has not only qualitative but also measurable significance: the country is one of only two double-landlocked states in the world and, at the same time, the only state bordering all four other Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan. In this context, the Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway project, with a length of approximately 573 km, acquires systemic importance, since it could reduce the time and cost of transportation toward Pakistan’s ports by roughly 30%^[4].

Therefore, connectivity should be understood more broadly than the physical connection of two points on a map. In the modern economy, it includes four dimensions. The first is infrastructural: roads, railways, terminals, ports, and energy networks. The second is institutional: customs, tariffs, standards, sanitary and phytosanitary rules, permits, and transit guarantees. The third is commercial: demand, purchasing power, contracts, logistics companies, insurance, and banking channels. The fourth is social and humanitarian: education, labor skills, tourism, medical ties, and research cooperation.

This approach helps avoid oversimplification. Even the shortest road will not become a sustainable corridor unless it is supported by a reliable legal environment, competitive tariffs, financial guarantees, and coordination among states.

3. Current state of trade and economic cooperation

Trade and economic ties between Central and South Asia are developing, but their scale still does not correspond to the size of the markets. Trade between Central Asian countries and India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan remains relatively modest compared with their trade with China, Russia, the European Union, Türkiye, and countries of the Middle East.

Central Asia supplies, or could potentially expand supplies to South Asia, in such areas as agricultural products, grain, fruit and vegetable products, textiles, fertilizers, energy goods, certain types of metals, and industrial raw materials. South Asia, primarily India and Pakistan, holds competitive positions in pharmaceuticals, medical goods, IT services, equipment, textile products, processed food products, and consumer goods.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been strengthening the southern direction of its foreign economic policy. Trade ties with India and Pakistan are developing through pharmaceuticals, textiles, food products, services, logistics, and investment projects. Uzbekistan’s foreign trade in the southern direction is already growing, but it still occupies a limited place in the overall structure of foreign trade. The largest trade flows with South Asian countries are with Afghanistan and India. However, the very fact that certain bilateral flows are growing does not solve the main problem: interregional trade remains fragmented. In order to turn it into a sustainable market, it is necessary to reduce transaction costs, ensure the predictability of transit, make standards comparable, and develop business services.

The issue of trade data is especially important. Mutual trade is often assessed using different sources, while the statistics of exporting countries and importing countries may diverge. To develop effective policy, a regularly updated data panel is needed, broken down by corridors, types of cargo, border-crossing times, transportation costs, return loads, the number of permits, and the actual use of preferential regimes. Without such a database, regional initiatives risk remaining merely declaratory.

4. Transport and logistics infrastructure as the basis of connectivity

Transport infrastructure is the material foundation for the rapprochement of Central and South Asia. At the same time, it is more accurate to speak not of a single route, but of a portfolio of corridors. Relying on only one route increases the vulnerability of the entire system. A diversified network of routes through Afghanistan, Iran, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and existing Eurasian directions creates redundancy, reduces risks, and strengthens the negotiating position of shippers.

The key project in the southern direction remains the trans-Afghan railway corridor Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar. Its strategic value lies in its potential to connect Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries with Pakistan’s ports, including Karachi, Qasim, and Gwadar. If implemented, such a corridor could reduce the distance and delivery time for certain types of cargo. However, the project requires the resolution of several complex issues: financing, security, technical parameters, railway gauge compatibility, the operating model, tariffs, and the distribution of risks among participants.

The Termez–Hairatan hub in Uzbekistan has particular significance. It is the closest entry point from Uzbekistan into Afghanistan and is already used as a logistics, humanitarian, and trade channel. The development of terminals, warehouses, customs capacities, multimodal transport services, and digital cargo-control systems could turn this hub into a stable anchor point for interregional trade.

Alongside the trans-Afghan route, the route through Iran is also important. For India, Central Asia, and Afghanistan, the Chabahar port is of particular significance, as are its links with the International North–South Transport Corridor and the Ashgabat Agreement. This option does not replace the trans-Afghan route, but it increases the resilience of the trade system. Events of recent years have shown that the closure or restriction of individual routes quickly increases the importance of alternative pathways through Iran and the countries of Central Asia.

Road corridors remain a necessary complement to railways. They are especially important for perishable products, small consignments, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and high-value-added goods. In this area, the key factors are not only roads, but also border procedures, the permit system for carriers, weight control, insurance, the safety of parking areas, and access to backhaul cargo.

The development of air connectivity plays a separate role. Direct flights between Tashkent, Samarkand, Almaty, Astana, Delhi, Mumbai, Lahore, and other cities do not create mass freight logistics, but they reduce barriers to business travel, tourism, education, medical services, and managerial oversight of investment projects. For modern business, such mobility is not a secondary factor, but a systemic one.

5. Energy partnership: from project-based logic to a regional market

Energy is one of the most obvious areas of complementarity between Central and South Asia. The Central Asian countries possess significant resources in natural gas, hydropower, solar power, and wind generation. South Asia, primarily Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, faces high energy demand, seasonal consumption peaks, and the need for a more reliable supply structure.

The most advanced interregional project in the electricity sector is CASA-1000. According to World Bank materials, the project is intended to ensure the transmission of up to 1,300 MW of surplus summer electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The project also provides for high-voltage transmission infrastructure, including power transmission lines and converter stations. Its significance goes beyond the energy sector: it demonstrates the possibility of contract-based electricity trade between the subregions with the participation of international financial institutions.

In the gas sector, the best-known project is TAPI: Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India. Its planned logic is straightforward: Turkmen gas is expected to flow through Afghanistan to the energy-deficient markets of South Asia. Published descriptions of the project usually indicate a length of approximately 1,800 km and a designed capacity of up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. However, TAPI remains a complex project with a high dependence on security, financing, long-term contracts, payment guarantees, and political coordination among the participants.

CASA-1000 has not only political but also measurable infrastructural significance: the project cost is estimated at approximately US$1.2 billion, while the designed transmission capacity is 1,300 MW. The Kyrgyz component provides for around 456 km of 500 kV power transmission lines. This makes it possible to view CASA-1000 as the first major example of contract-based interregional electricity trade between Central and South Asia^[5][6].

The new energy agenda includes not only the export of fuel and electricity, but also the development of low-carbon solutions. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are expanding projects in solar, wind, and hydropower, while also modernizing their grids. In the long term, South Asia could become a market for seasonal electricity and energy services from Central Asia. However, this requires rules for cross-border trade, compatible dispatch mechanisms, commercial guarantees, transparent tariffs, and investment in grid resilience.

Energy cooperation must take into account climate and water-related factors. In Central Asia, hydropower is closely linked to irrigation and water resource management. In South Asia, electricity demand depends on temperature peaks, urbanization, and industrial growth. Therefore, energy projects should be accompanied by mechanisms for climate adaptation, forecasting water availability, improving energy efficiency, and developing energy storage systems.

6. Investment cooperation and business ties

Investment cooperation between Central and South Asia is still developing on a case-by-case basis, but it has significant potential. Unlike trade in raw materials, investment requires a higher level of trust, legal certainty, protection of property rights, clear tax regimes, access to foreign-exchange settlements, and high-quality business information.

The most promising areas include pharmaceuticals, medical services, agro-processing, textiles, logistics, warehouse infrastructure, IT services, education, tourism, financial technologies, renewable energy, and the production of components for infrastructure projects. South Asian companies have strong competencies in IT, pharmaceuticals, and services, while Central Asia offers access to raw materials, industrial sites, growing domestic markets, and transit opportunities.

An important task is to move from one-off business contacts to a systematic investment pipeline. This requires project catalogues, clear requirements for investors, standardized public-private partnership models, dispute-resolution mechanisms, insurance against political and commercial risks, and joint workforce training programs.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are of particular importance. Large infrastructure projects create the foundation, but it is small and medium-sized businesses that fill corridors with real goods and services. For them, access to information, affordable logistics services, digital marketplaces, simplified payments, standardized documents, and support in entering a new market are critical.

Development institutions and international financial organizations can play a catalytic role. Their participation reduces risks, improves the quality of project preparation, and disciplines the participants. However, external financing does not replace national reforms. Without clear rules, transparent statistics, and effective courts, even concessional loans will not create a sustainable flow of investment.

7. The strategic role of Uzbekistan as a connector state

Uzbekistan possesses a unique set of preconditions for playing the role of a connector state. It is located at the center of Central Asia, borders all the countries of the region as well as Afghanistan, and is also a major demographic and industrial market. For a country without access to the sea, the development of external corridors is not an optional task, but a condition for long-term competitiveness.

Uzbekistan’s role is not limited to transit. A transit country earns revenue from the movement of goods, but a connector state shapes rules, services, trust, and the institutional environment. This means developing multimodal hubs, creating logistics centers, digitalizing customs procedures, expanding railway and road links, training personnel, attracting banks and insurance organizations, and providing analytical support for projects.

The southern direction strengthens Uzbekistan’s foreign economic diversification. It complements the country’s already existing links in the northern, eastern, and western directions. At the same time, the diversification of routes reduces dependence on individual markets and transit pathways, which is especially important amid instability in global trade, changes in tariff policy, and geopolitical restrictions.

Termez occupies a special place in this strategy. It can serve as a border logistics center, a platform for trade with Afghanistan, a hub of humanitarian and commercial infrastructure, and a symbolic space for discussing connectivity between Central and South Asia. To turn this role into a sustainable result, investment is needed in terminals, railway approaches, warehouse capacity, services for carriers, and a system for analyzing cargo flows.

Uzbekistan’s strength also lies in its ability to put forward multilateral initiatives. Interregional connectivity cannot be implemented through bilateral agreements alone. It requires the alignment of interests among the countries of Central Asia, the countries of South Asia, Afghanistan, international financial institutions, business, and the expert community. In this sphere, Uzbekistan can act as a coordinator of the agenda and a provider of analytical solutions.

8. Key barriers and ways to overcome them

The first barrier is incomplete infrastructure. Many corridors exist in the form of project concepts or partially functioning routes. To transform them into commercially sustainable directions, technical and economic feasibility studies, agreed tariffs, clear sources of financing, unified operational models, and transparent risk allocation are required.

The second barrier is security and the predictability of transit. For business, what matters is not only the length of the route, but also the likelihood of delays, losses, border closures, changes in rules, and additional payments. Therefore, transport policy should include insurance mechanisms, security standards, corridor monitoring, crisis protocols, and regular information exchange among government agencies.

The third barrier is administrative fragmentation. Different documents, uncoordinated customs procedures, weak advance declaration, the absence of mutual recognition of certain certificates, and limited digital interoperability increase the cost of trade. The solution lies in the transition to electronic transport documents, the expansion of the single-window principle, the introduction of risk-based control, and the coordination of technical standards.

The scale of the financial challenge can be assessed through the example of CAREC: in 2021–2024, transport investment under the program amounted to US$8.61 billion, with a significant share of financing provided by international partners. This shows that infrastructure corridors require not only a political decision, but also a sustainable financial architecture^[7][8].

Administrative barriers have a measurable expression. According to CAREC monitoring, in 2022, the average border-crossing time on road corridors was 9.9 hours, while on railway corridors it was 40.6 hours. This confirms that the digitalization of documents, advance declaration, and risk-based control can produce an effect even without the immediate construction of new arterial routes.

The fourth barrier is financial constraints. Infrastructure projects require large capital investments and have long payback periods. A combination of budget funds, loans from international financial organizations, public-private partnerships, guarantees, project financing, and blended-finance mechanisms is needed. At the same time, each project must undergo an assessment of commercial viability, not only political attractiveness.

The fifth barrier is the lack of market information. Companies often do not know potential partners, market requirements, logistics tariffs, certification rules, or available financial instruments. This barrier can be reduced through digital trade platforms, business missions, sectoral catalogues, regular exhibitions, analytical reviews, and consulting centers under chambers of commerce and industry.

The sixth barrier is climate and resource-related risks. Mountainous areas, droughts, floods, changes in glacial runoff, and extreme weather events affect roads, energy, and agriculture. New corridors should be designed with climate resilience in mind, while energy projects should take into account the water balance and the seasonality of demand.

Practical priorities through 2030

9. The Termez Dialogue as an institutional foundation for cooperation

The Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia can become an important institutional platform for coordinating the interregional agenda. In 2025, the first dialogue was held in Termez, dedicated to the formation of a shared space of peace, friendship, and prosperity. The very choice of Termez emphasizes the city’s practical role as Uzbekistan’s southern hub and as a symbolic point of connection with Afghanistan and South Asia.

The effectiveness of such a format will depend on whether it can move from general statements to the management of a project-based agenda. For this purpose, it would be advisable to structure the dialogue around four permanent tracks: transport and logistics, trade and standards, energy and climate, and investment and human capital. Each track should have a project map, progress indicators, responsible participants, and a mechanism for annual updates.

The participation of business is of particular importance. States can sign framework documents, but real demand for corridors is generated by exporters, importers, carriers, banks, insurance companies, terminal operators, and manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, within the framework of the Termez Dialogue, business sessions, B2B platforms, sectoral presentations, and discussions of specific barriers faced by companies are necessary.

The expert track should serve as an evidence base. It can prepare an annual report on the state of connectivity between Central and South Asia, a corridor-readiness index, monitoring of transportation time and costs, a review of regulatory barriers, analysis of investment projects, and recommendations for governments. In this area, Uzbekistan’s analytical institutions can play a leading role.

The Termez Dialogue is also important as an instrument for involving Afghanistan in economic processes on a pragmatic basis. This is not a matter of political legitimization, but of reducing economic isolation, developing transit procedures, supporting sustainable livelihoods, and creating incentives for stability. This logic corresponds to the interests of all participants, since Afghanistan’s economic predictability directly affects the cost and security of interregional routes.

10. Connectivity and the Sustainable Development Goals

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is directly linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The development of energy networks supports SDG 7, the expansion of trade and employment corresponds to SDG 8, the construction of resilient infrastructure is linked to SDG 9, the reduction of spatial isolation contributes to SDG 10, climate resilience relates to SDG 13, and regional coordination and partnerships correspond to SDG 16 and SDG 17.

However, the link with the SDGs does not arise automatically. Infrastructure can promote development, but it can also deepen inequality if benefits accrue only to major actors while local communities bear the costs. Therefore, projects should include environmental assessment, social safeguards, consultations with the population, management of land-related issues, occupational safety measures, and transparent compensation mechanisms.

Special attention should be paid to women, youth, and small enterprises. New corridors create demand for services in logistics, trade, catering, repair, digital support, education, and tourism. If access to these opportunities is opened to local entrepreneurs, infrastructure will become a source of inclusive growth, not merely transit rent.

Climate risk is already becoming an economic factor. According to World Bank estimates, by 2030, nearly 90% of South Asia’s population may be exposed to intense heat, while more than one fifth of the population may face the risk of severe flooding. For Central Asia, the key constraint is water: in Uzbekistan, the volume of water withdrawal significantly exceeds internal renewable resources, and the current water deficit may increase to 7 billion m³ by 2030 and to 15 billion m³ by 2050^[9][10][11].

The climate dimension of connectivity is becoming increasingly important. South Asia and Central Asia are exposed to the risks of extreme weather events, glacier melt, droughts, floods, and tensions around water. Therefore, new roads, railways, power transmission lines, and logistics centers should be designed with long-term climate scenarios in mind. For the energy sector, this means combining electricity trade, energy efficiency, renewable sources, and grid resilience.

From the standpoint of sustainable development, the most promising model is not one of raw-material transit, but one of value-added creation. This implies agro-processing, industrial cooperation, service chains, digital trade, the localization of selected industries, and workforce training. In this case, connectivity is transformed from the movement of goods into a mechanism of structural modernization.

11. Conclusion

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is one of the key conditions for the sustainable development of the macroregion. It is capable of expanding sales markets, reducing transport isolation, strengthening energy security, supporting employment, and creating new incentives for regional stability. At the same time, the expected effect depends not on a single project, but on a coordinated package of measures.

The main practical conclusion is the need for a portfolio approach. The trans-Afghan railway, the route through Iran, road corridors, air connectivity, the CASA-1000 and TAPI energy projects, trade digitalization, logistics hubs, and investment platforms should be viewed as mutually complementary elements. Each of them has different implementation timelines, risks, and economic logic; therefore, the regional strategy should ensure redundancy and flexibility.

Uzbekistan has objective advantages for the role of a connector state. Its geography, demographic potential, industrial base, southern hub in Termez, and active foreign economic agenda make it possible to bring together the interests of Central and South Asia.

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform where political will is translated into project-level discipline. For this to happen, it should generate not only declarations, but also a list of projects, indicators, road maps, evaluation mechanisms, and permanent channels of interaction among business, experts, and government agencies.

In the long term, connectivity between Central and South Asia should be oriented not only toward increasing trade volumes, but also toward improving the quality of development. A sustainable macroregion will take shape where infrastructure is connected with institutions, energy with climate responsibility, trade with industrial cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives with evidence-based analysis and practical results.

Muhammad Babadjanov,

Head of Department

at The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies

under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan

[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration/trade

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=TJ-UZ-KZ-TM-KG

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/country/south-asia

[4] https://uzembassy.kz/en/article/the-mazar-i-sharif-kabul-peshawar-railway-will-open-up-broad-prospects-for-international-trade

[5] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/brief/updated-q-a-on-casa-1000-resumption-in-afghanistan

[6] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/11/01/additional-financing-for-casa-1000-project-for-the-kyrgyz-republic

[7] https://www.carecprogram.org/uploads/03-CAREC-Transport-Strategy-2030-Midterm-Review-Draft-Report.pdf

[8] https://cpmm.carecprogram.org/2022-report/key-results/

[9] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/03/climate-resilience-in-south-asia-will-be-private-sector-led

[10] https://data.worldbank.org/country/uzbekistan

[11] https://www.adb.org/news/features/numbers-climate-change-central-asia

The year 2025 marked a stage of qualitative renewal and consolidation of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy positions. Amid a complex and ambiguous international environment characterized by rising geopolitical tensions, the transformation of global institutions, and intensifying competition for resources and markets, Uzbekistan, under the leadership of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, consistently pursued an open, pragmatic, active, and proactive foreign policy. This approach not only helped preserve the stability of external relations but also infused them with new substantive content aligned with the country’s long-term interests and domestic development priorities.

As emphasized by the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in his Address to the Oliy Majlis and the people on December 26, 2025, “in recent times the country has been becoming an international platform for dialogue where global issues are discussed.”

As an integral part of the large-scale socio-economic reforms underway in the country, the diplomatic strategy of New Uzbekistan was aimed at creating favorable external conditions for economic modernization, attracting foreign investment and tourists, expanding export potential, and strengthening humanitarian and cultural ties. The foundations of this foreign policy course remained the principles of openness, equal partnership, mutual respect, non-interference in the internal affairs of states, and strict adherence to international law.

Political dialogue at the highest level with prominent world leaders has reached a new stage and become regular. New agreements have been reached with the leaders of the United States, China, Russia, France, Italy, Turkey, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and a number of Arab states. In 2025, the number of bilateral meetings at the level of heads of state and government exceeded 55, which indicates a growth in mutual trust with foreign partners.

A similar trend was observed in the development of intensive high-level political dialogue. Throughout the year, high-level Uzbek delegations carried out 172 visits to 93 countries, covering virtually all key regions of the world. Representatives of ministries, agencies, and regional administrations also played a substantial role in shaping the international agenda. With the support of diplomatic missions, they undertook around 300 official visits to more than 50 countries, bringing foreign relations to a more practical and results-oriented level.

Acting as an active host, Uzbekistan has become one of the centers of world diplomacy. This is clearly demonstrated by the fact that the country has hosted forums, assemblies and conferences of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, the United Nations Civil Service, the UNESCO General Conference, the International Climate Conference, the Tashkent Summit of the countries of the region and a number of other major events. Our country has hosted over 120 high-level foreign delegations, as well as about 300 delegations from regional authorities of foreign states. These contacts have contributed to the development of interregional cooperation, the establishment of direct links between business circles and the expansion of the legal framework for cooperation.

Central Asia traditionally occupies a special place in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy strategy. In 2025, this priority received further institutional development. Uzbekistan chaired the Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia, with the chairmanship implemented for the first time on the basis of a comprehensive standalone program. Its agenda covered economic cooperation, transport connectivity, environmental issues, rational use of water resources, and humanitarian exchanges.

The organization of more than twenty major events and the holding in Tashkent of a summit of Central Asian leaders—historic in its outcomes and chaired by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev—became the culmination of regional diplomacy for the year. These developments confirmed the region’s aspiration to deepen mutual trust and pursue joint development.

Today, we can say with confidence that our vast region is becoming a unified, fully-fledged player in world politics for the first time in a long time. This is evidenced by the growing attention of the international community and the changed perception of the region on the global stage. A striking example is the development of the ‘Central Asia Plus’ formats, which in 2025 were filled with new concrete practical content. The summits with the European Union, China, Russia, the United States and Japan clearly demonstrated the region's increased role in global politics and strengthened its position as an area of stability, predictability and mutually beneficial cooperation.

An important direction of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy in 2025 was the further expansion of its geographical reach. Alongside traditional partners in the CIS, Europe, and Asia, contacts with countries in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and South America were intensified. The first-ever bilateral high-level engagements with Slovakia, Serbia, Jordan, Paraguay, and several other states testified to the consistent expansion of Uzbekistan’s international presence. As a result, the total number of countries with which Uzbekistan maintains diplomatic relations reached 165.

Against this backdrop, several events of strategic significance had a profound impact on Uzbekistan’s foreign policy positioning in 2025. The signing of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the European Union and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s visit to Brussels marked a transition in relations with the EU to a qualitatively new level. The agreement established a solid legal framework for deepening political dialogue, expanding trade and economic ties, attracting investment, and developing cooperation in sustainable development, the green economy, and digitalization, while also reflecting the high assessment by European partners of Uzbekistan’s ongoing reforms.

Continuing its course toward expanding and deepening engagement with key global centers of power, Uzbekistan steadily developed relations with the United States. A landmark event in this regard was the successful outcome of the “C5+1” summit held in Washington in November, which brought together the leaders of the United States and the Central Asian states. Uzbekistan’s role in this format has been widely recognized by international experts and policymakers as that of a key initiator of regional cooperation and a responsible partner of the United States in the areas of sustainable development, security, economic interaction, and humanitarian ties.

Equally significant was the participation of the President of Uzbekistan in the session of the United Nations General Assembly. The head of state’s address from the UN’s main international platform reaffirmed the country’s commitment to multilateralism, peaceful dialogue, and the collective search for solutions to pressing global challenges.

In 2025, four resolutions initiated by Uzbekistan were adopted by the UN General Assembly, reflecting the country’s priorities in sustainable development, regional security, and humanitarian cooperation. In addition, Uzbekistan was elected to several authoritative UN bodies, underscoring the growing trust of the international community.

A historic event of the year was the holding of the 43rd session of the UNESCO General Conference in Samarkand. For the first time in forty years, this forum took place outside Paris, representing unprecedented recognition of Uzbekistan’s cultural, historical, and civilization significance. For several days, Samarkand became a global platform for dialogue on education, science, and culture, strengthening the humanitarian dimension of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy and its image as a center of intercivilizational interaction.

Alongside active political diplomacy, economic diplomacy developed dynamically in 2025, firmly establishing itself as one of the key instruments of the country’s foreign policy. Systematic work within the framework of “Ministry of Foreign Affairs — diplomatic missions — sectoral agencies — regions” yielded tangible results in attracting foreign investment and expanding external economic ties. Over the first ten months of the year, USD 34.4 billion in foreign investment was mobilized with the support of diplomatic missions.

The effectiveness of Uzbekistan’s economic policy received high praise from international financial institutions and rating agencies. In 2025, Fitch Ratings and S&P upgraded the country’s sovereign credit rating from “BB-” to “BB,” while Moody’s revised its outlook from “stable” to “positive,” reflecting growing confidence in the economy and the sustainability of ongoing reforms.

The intensification of foreign economic activity also contributed to the growth of trade indicators. Over the first eleven months of 2025, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover reached USD 72.7 billion, with exports amounting to USD 30.8 billion—an increase of USD 6.6 billion compared to the same period of the previous year. A significant reduction in the trade deficit was the result of targeted efforts by diplomatic missions to diversify markets and promote domestic products abroad.

Tourism, as an element of “soft power,” played an important role in shaping Uzbekistan’s positive international image in 2025. Over eleven months, the country was visited by 10.7 million foreign tourists, with more than one million foreign visitors welcomed each month on average. Active participation in international exhibitions, large-scale promotional events abroad, and the hosting in Tashkent of the first “Central Asia–European Union” Tourism Forum helped strengthen Uzbekistan’s position as one of the most promising tourist destinations in the region.

Considerable attention was also devoted to protecting the rights and interests of Uzbek citizens abroad, an important humanitarian dimension of foreign policy. From January to September 2025, more than 385,000 consular actions were carried out, including the return of unlawfully confiscated documents and the recovery of unpaid wages, alongside the implementation of programs facilitating the return of compatriots to their homeland. In parallel, digital consular services were improved, the geography of visa-free and simplified entry for Uzbek citizens was expanded, and cooperation with diaspora communities was strengthened.

In summary, the outcomes of 2025 clearly demonstrate that Uzbekistan’s foreign policy has reached a high level of maturity, consistency, and effectiveness. The country not only strengthened its positions on the international stage but also successfully leveraged diplomatic instruments to support domestic development, enhance investment attractiveness, and improve the quality of life of its citizens. Uzbekistan concludes the year with an expanded network of partnerships, a robust legal and contractual framework, and a clear vision for the future—remaining open to the world and looking ahead with confidence and optimism.

Dunyo IA

Central and South Asia are increasingly facing the same reality: climate risks are no longer a distant forecast. Droughts, water scarcity, heatwaves, land degradation, dust storms, floods, and pressure on water, food and energy security are already affecting economies, public health, infrastructure, and the resilience of entire regions.

This is why the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia is of particular significance. The second meeting is organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in partnership with the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. This format reflects Uzbekistan’s consistent foreign policy direction aimed at strengthening trust, open dialogue, and sustainable connectivity between the regions.

While the first meeting introduced the Termez Dialogue as a platform for bringing the two regions closer together, the new agenda takes the next step: moving from a discussion of connectivity to practical mechanisms for joint climate adaptation and stronger environmental resilience. Its task is to move from conceptual discussions to concrete priorities and practical mechanisms, with joint adaptation to climate change identified among the key areas of cooperation.

Climate as a New Test of Connectivity

Climate change shows how closely water, food, energy, transport, health, and ecosystems are linked. When water availability declines, the impact is not limited to agriculture. It also affects hydropower, food prices, migration, employment, soil conditions, and even regional stability. As extreme heat becomes more frequent, cities, transport systems, healthcare systems, and labour productivity all come under pressure.

The Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), prepared as part of the Sixth Assessment Cycle, emphasizes that adaptation is already taking place in all regions of the world, but the gap between what is needed and what is being done remains and will continue to grow at the current pace of action. The IPCC also underlines that the most effective responses are not isolated measures, but integrated solutions that connect water management, agriculture, infrastructure, social protection, ecosystems, and population needs.

This is particularly important for Central and South Asia. Both regions depend on mountain watersheds, irrigated agriculture, the resilience of rural areas, as well as stable and secure energy supply and the cross-border movement of goods and people. Climate adaptation, therefore, cannot remain solely a matter of national policy. It must become part of interregional cooperation.

Uzbekistan: The Data Confirm the Urgency of Action

Uzbekistan’s Fourth National Communication under the UNFCCC identifies the country as among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in Central Asia and Eurasia. This vulnerability is linked to accelerated temperature rise, growing water scarcity, glacier retreat, and the increasing frequency of extreme hydrometeorological events.

Water remains an especially sensitive factor. Uzbekistan’s water resources belong to the Aral Sea basin, while the main surface runoff of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers is formed outside the country. This means that Uzbekistan’s climate resilience is directly linked to the quality of regional and interregional cooperation. Water, data, forecasts, infrastructure, and trust become part of one security system.

Cities as a New Frontline of Climate Adaptation

The climate agenda is also becoming increasingly connected with the future of cities. Speaking at the Leaders’ Summit of the 13th session of the World Urban Forum in Baku, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted that, over the next 15 years, the country’s population is expected to grow from 38 to 50 million people, while the urbanization rate is projected to rise from 51% to 65%.

For Uzbekistan, this is not only a demographic trend but also a climate challenge. Urban growth increases pressure on water, energy, transport, housing, air quality, and green spaces. Therefore, plans for sustainable urbanization — including the development of “green”, “smart”, “safe”, and “15-minute” cities, the expansion of urban greenery, and the introduction of green city principles — are directly linked to climate adaptation.

In this context, the Termez Dialogue can become a platform for exchanging experience not only on water and agriculture, but also on climate-resilient urban development: from reducing the urban heat island effect and saving water to clean transport, digital air quality monitoring, and designing new districts with climate risks in mind.

A New Emphasis: Adaptation as a Practical Development Agenda

The Termez Dialogue can offer an important new approach: to view adaptation not as a response to crises, but as an investment in sustainable development. This changes the very language of climate policy.

Adaptation is not only about building protective infrastructure or responding to emergencies. It is about more accurate forecasting of droughts and floods and data exchange between countries. It is about water-saving agriculture, the modernization of canals, pumping stations, and urban infrastructure. It is about restoring degraded lands and ecosystems. It is about preparing farmers, engineers, hydrologists, energy specialists, and local authorities to operate under new climate conditions.

This is why the Concept of the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue emphasizes the consolidation of efforts by states and partners to develop coordinated and mutually reinforcing approaches to climate adaptation and to reducing the socio-economic consequences of climate and environmental risks.

Why Central and South Asia Must Adapt Together

Climate risks do not recognize borders. Drought in one part of the region can affect food markets in another. Glacier retreat changes river regimes far beyond mountain areas. Dust storms, heatwaves, and extreme rainfall can affect several countries at once. Joint adaptation is therefore a practical necessity.

The IPCC stresses that around 3.3 to 3.6 billion people worldwide live in conditions of high vulnerability to climate change. It also emphasizes that the vulnerability of people and ecosystems is interconnected: the degradation of ecosystems increases risks for people, while social vulnerability reduces societies’ ability to adapt.

For Central and South Asia, this means that resilience must be built across several dimensions at once: water, food, energy, environment, and society. Food and environmental security cannot be strengthened without water. Infrastructure cannot be modernized without climate forecasts. Risks cannot be reduced without trust and information exchange.

Termez as a Place for Climate Partnership

The choice of Termez has both historical and practical significance. Termez is Uzbekistan’s southern gateway and a natural bridge between Central and South Asia. In today’s conditions, this role acquires new meaning: the city is becoming a symbol not only of transport and trade connectivity, but also of climate partnership.

Afghanistan has a particularly important role. The idea of the Termez Dialogue implies the need for the gradual integration of Afghanistan into regional economic, transport, humanitarian, and climate processes with the support of the international community. In the climate agenda, this is especially meaningful: without Afghanistan’s participation, it is impossible to build genuinely sustainable connectivity between Central and South Asia.

What the Termez Dialogue Can Deliver

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform for launching several practical areas of cooperation.

First, the exchange of climate and hydrological data, including forecasts of droughts, floods, glacier changes, and dust storms.

Second, the joint promotion of early warning systems, so that countries can prepare in advance for extreme weather events.

Third, the development of climate-resilient agriculture: water-saving technologies, drought-resistant crops, digital services for farmers, and the restoration of pastures and soils.

Fourth, ecosystem-based adaptation — the restoration of forests, wetlands, mountain and desert ecosystems that themselves serve as natural protection against climate risks.

Fifth, climate-resilient infrastructure — from transport corridors and logistics centres to energy facilities and rapidly growing cities.

From a Common Challenge to Shared Resilience

The main value of the Termez Dialogue is that it allows the climate agenda to be discussed not in the language of alarm, but in the language of joint solutions. Central and South Asia can not only exchange risk assessments, but also create common adaptation mechanisms: from scientific networks and pilot projects to investment programmes and regional standards for resilient infrastructure.

The new climate agenda of the Termez Dialogue is part of the larger idea of connectivity. Genuine connectivity is not only about roads, trade, and energy corridors. It is also about the capacity of countries to jointly protect ecosystems, human health, and the future of coming generations. The Termez Dialogue can become the space where Central and South Asia move from recognizing their shared vulnerability to building shared resilience.

D.R. Ziganshina, SIC ICWC | 20 May 2026