Central and South Asia are increasingly facing the same reality: climate risks are no longer a distant forecast. Droughts, water scarcity, heatwaves, land degradation, dust storms, floods, and pressure on water, food and energy security are already affecting economies, public health, infrastructure, and the resilience of entire regions.
This is why the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia is of particular significance. The second meeting is organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in partnership with the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. This format reflects Uzbekistan’s consistent foreign policy direction aimed at strengthening trust, open dialogue, and sustainable connectivity between the regions.
While the first meeting introduced the Termez Dialogue as a platform for bringing the two regions closer together, the new agenda takes the next step: moving from a discussion of connectivity to practical mechanisms for joint climate adaptation and stronger environmental resilience. Its task is to move from conceptual discussions to concrete priorities and practical mechanisms, with joint adaptation to climate change identified among the key areas of cooperation.
Climate as a New Test of Connectivity
Climate change shows how closely water, food, energy, transport, health, and ecosystems are linked. When water availability declines, the impact is not limited to agriculture. It also affects hydropower, food prices, migration, employment, soil conditions, and even regional stability. As extreme heat becomes more frequent, cities, transport systems, healthcare systems, and labour productivity all come under pressure.
The Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), prepared as part of the Sixth Assessment Cycle, emphasizes that adaptation is already taking place in all regions of the world, but the gap between what is needed and what is being done remains and will continue to grow at the current pace of action. The IPCC also underlines that the most effective responses are not isolated measures, but integrated solutions that connect water management, agriculture, infrastructure, social protection, ecosystems, and population needs.
This is particularly important for Central and South Asia. Both regions depend on mountain watersheds, irrigated agriculture, the resilience of rural areas, as well as stable and secure energy supply and the cross-border movement of goods and people. Climate adaptation, therefore, cannot remain solely a matter of national policy. It must become part of interregional cooperation.
Uzbekistan: The Data Confirm the Urgency of Action
Uzbekistan’s Fourth National Communication under the UNFCCC identifies the country as among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in Central Asia and Eurasia. This vulnerability is linked to accelerated temperature rise, growing water scarcity, glacier retreat, and the increasing frequency of extreme hydrometeorological events.
Water remains an especially sensitive factor. Uzbekistan’s water resources belong to the Aral Sea basin, while the main surface runoff of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers is formed outside the country. This means that Uzbekistan’s climate resilience is directly linked to the quality of regional and interregional cooperation. Water, data, forecasts, infrastructure, and trust become part of one security system.
Cities as a New Frontline of Climate Adaptation
The climate agenda is also becoming increasingly connected with the future of cities. Speaking at the Leaders’ Summit of the 13th session of the World Urban Forum in Baku, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted that, over the next 15 years, the country’s population is expected to grow from 38 to 50 million people, while the urbanization rate is projected to rise from 51% to 65%.
For Uzbekistan, this is not only a demographic trend but also a climate challenge. Urban growth increases pressure on water, energy, transport, housing, air quality, and green spaces. Therefore, plans for sustainable urbanization — including the development of “green”, “smart”, “safe”, and “15-minute” cities, the expansion of urban greenery, and the introduction of green city principles — are directly linked to climate adaptation.
In this context, the Termez Dialogue can become a platform for exchanging experience not only on water and agriculture, but also on climate-resilient urban development: from reducing the urban heat island effect and saving water to clean transport, digital air quality monitoring, and designing new districts with climate risks in mind.
A New Emphasis: Adaptation as a Practical Development Agenda
The Termez Dialogue can offer an important new approach: to view adaptation not as a response to crises, but as an investment in sustainable development. This changes the very language of climate policy.
Adaptation is not only about building protective infrastructure or responding to emergencies. It is about more accurate forecasting of droughts and floods and data exchange between countries. It is about water-saving agriculture, the modernization of canals, pumping stations, and urban infrastructure. It is about restoring degraded lands and ecosystems. It is about preparing farmers, engineers, hydrologists, energy specialists, and local authorities to operate under new climate conditions.
This is why the Concept of the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue emphasizes the consolidation of efforts by states and partners to develop coordinated and mutually reinforcing approaches to climate adaptation and to reducing the socio-economic consequences of climate and environmental risks.
Why Central and South Asia Must Adapt Together
Climate risks do not recognize borders. Drought in one part of the region can affect food markets in another. Glacier retreat changes river regimes far beyond mountain areas. Dust storms, heatwaves, and extreme rainfall can affect several countries at once. Joint adaptation is therefore a practical necessity.
The IPCC stresses that around 3.3 to 3.6 billion people worldwide live in conditions of high vulnerability to climate change. It also emphasizes that the vulnerability of people and ecosystems is interconnected: the degradation of ecosystems increases risks for people, while social vulnerability reduces societies’ ability to adapt.
For Central and South Asia, this means that resilience must be built across several dimensions at once: water, food, energy, environment, and society. Food and environmental security cannot be strengthened without water. Infrastructure cannot be modernized without climate forecasts. Risks cannot be reduced without trust and information exchange.
Termez as a Place for Climate Partnership
The choice of Termez has both historical and practical significance. Termez is Uzbekistan’s southern gateway and a natural bridge between Central and South Asia. In today’s conditions, this role acquires new meaning: the city is becoming a symbol not only of transport and trade connectivity, but also of climate partnership.
Afghanistan has a particularly important role. The idea of the Termez Dialogue implies the need for the gradual integration of Afghanistan into regional economic, transport, humanitarian, and climate processes with the support of the international community. In the climate agenda, this is especially meaningful: without Afghanistan’s participation, it is impossible to build genuinely sustainable connectivity between Central and South Asia.
What the Termez Dialogue Can Deliver
The Termez Dialogue can become a platform for launching several practical areas of cooperation.
First, the exchange of climate and hydrological data, including forecasts of droughts, floods, glacier changes, and dust storms.
Second, the joint promotion of early warning systems, so that countries can prepare in advance for extreme weather events.
Third, the development of climate-resilient agriculture: water-saving technologies, drought-resistant crops, digital services for farmers, and the restoration of pastures and soils.
Fourth, ecosystem-based adaptation — the restoration of forests, wetlands, mountain and desert ecosystems that themselves serve as natural protection against climate risks.
Fifth, climate-resilient infrastructure — from transport corridors and logistics centres to energy facilities and rapidly growing cities.
From a Common Challenge to Shared Resilience
The main value of the Termez Dialogue is that it allows the climate agenda to be discussed not in the language of alarm, but in the language of joint solutions. Central and South Asia can not only exchange risk assessments, but also create common adaptation mechanisms: from scientific networks and pilot projects to investment programmes and regional standards for resilient infrastructure.
The new climate agenda of the Termez Dialogue is part of the larger idea of connectivity. Genuine connectivity is not only about roads, trade, and energy corridors. It is also about the capacity of countries to jointly protect ecosystems, human health, and the future of coming generations. The Termez Dialogue can become the space where Central and South Asia move from recognizing their shared vulnerability to building shared resilience.
On August 5, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev familiarized himself with the presentation of measures aimed at developing competition.
The ongoing efforts to reduce the state presence in the economy and curb large monopolies have a positive impact on the competitive environment. In particular, over the last five years the competitive environment has improved in more than 25 goods. Exclusive rights that restricted competition in 7 types of activities have been abolished. The number of enterprises with state participation decreased by 42 percent, while the number of private business entities increased by 1.6 times.
Last year the Law "On Competition" was adopted in a new version. The Committee for Competition Development and Consumer Protection was given additional effective powers. According to the studies conducted on this basis, in some organizations there are such phenomena as anticompetitive decision-making, direct contracts, use of dominant position in trade.
In this regard, a Competition Development Framework has been developed to enhance the coverage and effectiveness of competition in this area. This concept defines further tasks to reduce government involvement in the economy, liberalize market access and create a level playing field for entrepreneurs.
Thus, it is planned to abolish regulations and redundant requirements that impede the free access of business entities to markets. It is envisaged to introduce relaxations aimed at reducing the regulatory burden, in particular, permitting procedures and licenses will be replaced by compulsory liability insurance.
Independent market regulators will be introduced in the spheres of natural monopolies. The participation of natural monopoly entities will be limited in commodity markets related to natural monopolies and where there is an opportunity to develop competition.
The scale of direct public procurement will be reduced, and it will be completely switched to competitive methods. It is envisaged to abolish the provision of state aid of an individual nature that restricts competition, including exclusive rights, privileges, preferences and relaxations.
By means of mutual integration of information systems of state bodies, digital monitoring of all links in the chain of pricing of socially important products will be established. A system of non-disclosure and encouragement of persons who have provided information on cases of anticompetitive agreements and actions, collusions will be introduced.
In general, as a result of the implementation of this concept, measures will be taken to gradually eliminate 17 types of state monopoly in a number of areas, such as energy, oil and gas sector, water management, road construction, railroad and airport services. Anti-competitive actions in public procurement will be curbed and transparency of these processes will be ensured. Commodity exchanges will increase supply and expand the choice opportunities for buyers.
The President gave additional instructions to continue work in this area, to ensure free market principles, and to develop entrepreneurship. The need to reduce the state's share in the economy and to gradually transfer certain functions to the private sector was emphasized. The task has been set to constantly analyze the state of competition on commodity, financial and digital markets and to make proposals to improve procedures.
Over the last three years, over 2,000 acts contradicting the competition law have been identified locally. In most cases, these are documents of local khokimiyats and ministries. In this regard, it was noted that it is necessary to intensify the work of territorial departments of the Committee for Competition Development and improve the qualification of personnel.
It was also pointed out the importance of increasing openness and strengthening the work on publicizing the activities of the Committee. It was emphasized that this is important to prevent violations of the law and to create a transparent environment.
The strategic convergence between Turkiye and Central Asian states –driven by shared historical and cultural heritage alongside mutually reinforcing economic interests – is cultivating a novel architectural framework for regional interconnectedness. Through multilateral formats and bilateral initiatives, these actors have been establishing a durable platform for cooperation across trade, energy, transportation, and the “green” economy, transforming geographical proximity into a long-term factor of stability and collective development.
Amidst the diversification of Central Asian countries’ foreign policy vectors and the Turkish diplomacy’s increasing emphasis on the Eurasian dimension, this partnership has been acquiring a systemic character that goes beyond specific projects, thereby shaping a sustainable architecture of regional interconnectedness.
Political Foundations of Institutionalizing the Partnership
The core instrument facilitating political engagement is the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), which has evolved from a cultural and educational association into a regional a center of attraction spanning from Central Asia to the Caucasus and Europe. Regular summit meetings of OTS leaders exemplify a transition to a pragmatic cooperation phase. Particular significance is attributed to Uzbekistan and its President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who has initiated to deepen collaboration within the organization.
At the October 2025 OTS summit in Gabala, Azerbaijan, the Uzbek leader proposed to craft OTS’s Strategy of Development 2030, including the establishment of a Permanent Council for economic partnership headquartered in Tashkent. These initiatives aim to coordinate economic projects, support business initiatives, and enhance the efficiency of interaction – underscoring Uzbekistan’s aspiration to become a regional hub of integration and a platform for sustainable development.
Simultaneously, Turkiye is intensifying its engagement within other multilateral structures relevant to Central Asia, such as Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Ankara, holding the status of a partner and strives for full membership. This multi-format engagement allows for flexible adaptation of the agenda to specific priorities – from confidence-building measures in security to the coordination of transport corridors.
On January 20 2026, a meeting of the Joint Strategic Planning Group took place, co-chaired by the foreign ministers of Uzbekistan and Turkiye, confirming mutual readiness to deepen coordination within the UN, OSCE, OIC, and ECO, and to support each other’s candidacies in international organizations. This approach transforms bilateral relations into a component of a broader global diplomatic strategy, where support on the international stage becomes a shared interest.
Economic Dimension: From Trade to Strategic Investments
Since 2018, the bilateral trade volume between Central Asia and Ankara has more than doubled – from 6 billion to14.5 billion in 2025. In the long-term Turkiye has set an ambitious target of reaching $30 billion in bilateral trade with Central Asian region.
The volume of Turkish investments exhibits an even more remarkable trend. From 2016 to 2024, Turkish investments in the region increased 2.5 times – from 1.1 billion to3 billion – significantly surpassing the overall growth of Turkish investments in Eurasia (34%) during the same period. Central Asia accounts for 24% of Turkiye’s total accumulated investments in Eurasia. The number of Turkish companies operating in the region increased from 4,000 in 2016 to over 7,000 in 2025. Turkiye has become Uzbekistan’s third-largest investor (after China and Russia), with more than 2,000 enterprises, including 438 joint ventures.
Turkish business is gradually shifting from small-scale operations to implementing large-scale infrastructure projects across construction, telecommunications, textiles, and agribusiness sectors. Framework documents such as the “OTS Strategy-2026” and the “OTS Strategy-2040,” approved within the OTS, envisage creating a unified economic space –including a common energy grid and a regional development bank. Uzbekistan’s initiatives to expand the activities of the Turkic Investment Fund and the adoption of the “OTS’s Roadmap on Artificial Intelligence and the Creative Economy” indicate a transition towards a high-tech collaboration agenda.
Energy Interdependence: From Hydrocarbons to “Green” Transformation
Central Asia possesses significant hydrocarbon reserves: Kazakhstan holds approximately 30 billion barrels of oil; Turkmenistan ranks fifth globally in natural gas reserves; Uzbekistan has sizable, largely undeveloped deposits. Correspondingly, Turkiye aims to become an energy hub, providing Central Asia with direct access to the European market amid EU’s decarbonization efforts and reduced reliance on Russian supplies.
The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, initially intended for Azerbaijani oil, has evolved into the Trans-Caspian export route. Kazakhstan has been exporting oil through this corridor since 2008, and Turkmenistan since 2010.
In addition, negotiations are underway concerning the export of Turkmen gas via the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), with plans to double its capacity from 16 to 32 billion cubic meters.
Simultaneously, the countries are actively transitioning to renewable energy sources. In Uzbekistan, the Turkish conglomerate “Cengiz” has completed construction of two power plants totaling 460 MW, with additional facilities exceeding 500 MW under construction in Jizzakh. According to estimates from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan possess immense potential not only for domestic green energy production but also for export.
The culmination of these efforts is exemplified by the Trans-Caspian Green Energy Corridor project – an initiative under the Green Corridor Alliance, a joint Kazakh-Uzbek-Azerbaijani enterprise, with funding from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. It aims to connect the electricity grids of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea for subsequent export to Turkiye and Europe. An agreement on strategic partnership for this project was signed at COP29 in Baku in 2024.
The Central Corridor: An Artery of Development
The Trans-Caspian route (the Middle Corridor) has gained strategic importance as an alternative land corridor connecting China with Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkiye. Forecasts suggest that freight volumes along this route could double by 2030, heightening economic interdependence and boosting its geopolitical relevance.
Uzbekistan actively supports the reinforcement of the Central Corridor, viewing it as a core factor for sustainable regional economic development. The infrastructural interdependence created by this project fosters long-term stability among the countries of Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Turkiye, transforming transport cooperation into a tool for regional security enhancement.
Cultural and Humanitarian Dimension: The Foundation of Sustainable Partnership
Historical and cultural links rooted in a common Turkic heritage continue to underpin modern cooperation. The parties are steadily expanding educational programs within the “Turkic World” concept. Several universities operate across Central Asia, including the International University of Turkic States and the Turkish University of Economics and Technology in Uzbekistan. Special attention is given to increasing scholarships for Uzbek students within the “Türkiye Bursları” program and developing joint scholarship initiatives.
Such exchanges in science and culture foster durable horizontal ties among the citizens of Turkiye and Central Asian countries. An increasingly important element is digital cooperation: joint projects in artificial intelligence, digital governance, and creative industries open new avenues for engagement. The expansion of tourism flows and media exchanges also contribute to forming a unified informational and communicational space which is particularly relevant amid the global competition in the modern media environment of information manipulation.
Conclusion
Overall, the partnership between Central Asia and Turkiye reflects a transition from ad hoc interactions to a systematic model of cooperation based on resource, infrastructural, and strategic complementarity. Turkiye gains access to energy resources and transit routes, strengthening its status as an Eurasian hub. In turn, Central Asian states diversify their foreign policy and economic ties, increasing their autonomy and competitiveness.
The future prospects of this partnership hinge on three core vectors: first, deepening economic integration through the OTS and bilateral agreements; second, jointly implementing cross-border infrastructure projects in energy and transportation; third, advancing the “green” and digital agendas as foundations for sustainable development. Achieving these objectives requires ongoing dialogue, regulatory harmonization, and trust-building measures, but it already clear that the Central Asia–Turkiye partnership forms a robust platform for regional stability and collective prosperity in a multipolar world.
Dilorom MAMATKULOVA,
Leading research fellow of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan
The contemporary system of international relations is being shaped by rapid geopolitical changes, growing fragmentation, disruptions in transport and supply chains, climate change, and increasing risks to food and energy security. Under these conditions, trust, dialogue and practical cooperation among states are becoming more important than ever. For Central and South Asia — two historically interconnected regions with significant yet not fully realized potential — connectivity has acquired not only economic, but also strategic, political and civilizational significance.
The initiative to strengthen connectivity between Central and South Asia, advanced by President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, represents a timely response to this historical and geopolitical demand. Its core idea is that security cannot be ensured solely through military or political instruments. It must also be built through economic development, transport corridors, trade links, education, culture and human capital. In this sense, development is not merely a consequence of security; rather, it is one of its fundamental preconditions.
This approach gained institutional form in July 2021, when Tashkent hosted the high-level international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities” at the initiative of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The forum created an important political and expert platform for advancing interregional cooperation. Its international recognition was further demonstrated in 2022, when the United Nations General Assembly adopted the resolution “Strengthening Connectivity between Central and South Asia.” Initiated by the President of Uzbekistan and supported by more than 40 states, the resolution confirmed that Uzbekistan’s vision has significance not only at the national or regional level, but also for the wider international community.
The Termez Dialogue is a practical continuation of this diplomatic and intellectual process. Launched in May 2025, it has emerged as a permanent platform aimed at creating a stable, systematic and practice-oriented environment for cooperation between Central and South Asia. Its first meeting attracted considerable attention from the international expert community due to its broad participation, multilateral format and applied focus. The growing interest in this initiative was also reflected in the organization of a separate session on the Termez Dialogue during the Doha Forum in December 2025.
The second meeting of the Termez Dialogue, scheduled for 4–6 June 2026 in Tashkent, Termez and Samarkand, is expected to mark a new stage in the development of this platform. The main emphasis will shift from general conceptual discussions to the identification of specific priorities and practical mechanisms. In other words, the Dialogue is intended not only to exchange views, but also to generate concrete outcomes in political dialogue, economic connectivity, transport and logistics, climate adaptation, and cultural-humanitarian cooperation.
One of the key features of the Termez Dialogue is that it reflects Uzbekistan’s proactive, pragmatic and open foreign policy. Uzbekistan does not position itself as a state forced to choose between competing blocs, but rather as a reliable platform for dialogue among different regions, markets and civilizations. In this regard, the Termez Dialogue forms part of a broader system of initiatives, including the Fergana Peace Forum, the Samarkand Climate Forum, the Samarkand Solidarity Initiative, and proposals within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on good-neighbourliness, trust and cross-border partnership.
Transport and logistics remain among the most important dimensions of connectivity between Central and South Asia. The countries of Central Asia are landlocked and therefore face structural limitations in accessing global markets. Diversifying transport routes, reducing logistics costs and facilitating access to external markets are essential for the region’s long-term economic development. According to available estimates, the level of transport connectivity of Central Asian states with external markets is around 60 per cent, while in the European Union and ASEAN countries it exceeds 95 per cent. In some cases, transport costs in Central Asia may reach up to 50 per cent of the final value of goods, which is several times higher than the global average.
In this context, the Trans-Afghan Corridor has strategic importance. It can provide Central Asian states with the shortest access to the ports of the Indian Ocean and link South Asia with the markets of Central Asia, Russia, China and Europe. This project is not limited to railway construction or transport infrastructure. It is also an instrument of regional economic integration, Afghanistan’s involvement in peaceful development processes, and the formation of a new trade architecture in Eurasia. Through this approach, Uzbekistan seeks to transform its geographical constraints into logistical advantages.
Afghanistan occupies a special place in this process. It is a natural land bridge connecting Central and South Asia. Uzbekistan’s policy toward Afghanistan is consistent and practical. Since 2021, Uzbekistan has sent 15 humanitarian convoys to Afghanistan, delivering more than 13,000 tons of humanitarian assistance. At the same time, bilateral trade and economic relations have been developing dynamically. In 2025, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan reached 1.7 billion US dollars, which is 55 per cent higher than the previous year. These figures demonstrate that Uzbekistan views Afghanistan not as a source of problems, but as an important participant in regional development and stability.
The choice of Termez as one of the central locations of this initiative is also highly symbolic. Historically, Termez has been a meeting point of trade, culture, science and religious traditions between Central and South Asia. The city played an important role in the history of Bactria, the Kushan Empire, the Great Silk Road and wider civilizational exchange. Today, Termez is becoming Uzbekistan’s southern gateway and a modern centre of practical cooperation with Afghanistan and South Asia.
There are concrete examples of this transformation. The Termez International Trade Centre, opened on 29 August 2024, covers 36 hectares and is located only 500 metres from the border with Afghanistan. A 15-day visa-free regime has been introduced within the centre. Its infrastructure includes more than 3,000 shops, customs facilities, banking services, public service centres and export-oriented platforms. The annual export potential of products represented in the trade zone is estimated at 1.2 billion US dollars. More than 1,000 local residents and about 140 Afghan citizens are employed there. This shows that connectivity is not an abstract political slogan, but a practical reality linked to jobs, exports, services and human livelihoods.
Another important example is the Termez Cargo Centre, an international transport and logistics hub operating since 2016. Located near the intersection of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, the centre has been used since 2021 by the United Nations World Food Programme and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees for delivering humanitarian cargo to Afghanistan. Thus, Termez is becoming not only a trade and logistics hub, but also an important point of humanitarian diplomacy.
The Educational Centre for Afghan Citizens, established in Termez in 2018, also reflects Uzbekistan’s long-term investment in human capital. The centre provides education for Afghan youth in 17 higher education fields and 16 vocational and secondary-specialized areas. Since its establishment, more than 800 Afghan citizens have studied there, including 200 girls and women. These figures demonstrate the importance of education and professional training in stabilizing Afghanistan. Peace is strengthened not only through political agreements, but also through an educated, skilled and socially active generation.
Another important dimension of the Termez Dialogue is climate and environmental sustainability. Central and South Asia are among the regions most affected by the consequences of climate change. Water scarcity, desertification, soil degradation, air pollution, glacier melting and natural disasters are not only national challenges, but also transboundary problems. Therefore, climate adaptation, rational use of water resources, early warning systems and the exchange of digital hydrological data should become integral components of cooperation between the two regions.
Uzbekistan is taking an active role in this field as well. The Samarkand Climate Forum, regional climate summits, the Green Agenda, the regional strategy for climate adaptation and environmental protection programmes are important steps in this direction. These initiatives show that Central Asia is no longer merely a region affected by environmental problems; it is increasingly becoming an active regional actor proposing practical solutions.
Cultural and humanitarian cooperation forms one of the deepest foundations of interregional connectivity. The peoples of Central and South Asia have been linked for centuries through shared history, trade routes, science, culture and spirituality. Today, the demographic potential of the two regions also creates major opportunities: more than 60 per cent of the population is under the age of 30. This opens broad prospects for cooperation in education, science, academic exchange, innovation and human capital development.
From this perspective, the Termez Dialogue is not only a meeting of diplomats and experts. It should also serve as a platform that opens new opportunities for young people, scholars, entrepreneurs, educational institutions, cultural actors and civil society representatives. Economic projects require trust, and trust requires closer ties, mutual understanding and cultural dialogue among peoples.
The planned visit to Samarkand also carries deep symbolic meaning. For centuries, Samarkand served as a centre of science, trade and diplomacy connecting East and West, Central and South Asia, the Middle East and Europe. The “Spirit of Samarkand” reflects openness, tolerance, dialogue and a commitment to shared development. In the diplomacy of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Samarkand has become a platform that connects Uzbekistan’s historical legacy with modern international initiatives.
In conclusion, the Termez Dialogue is not an ordinary international event aimed only at bringing Central and South Asia closer together. It is a strategic platform that reflects Uzbekistan’s new foreign policy thinking, regional responsibility and global initiative. Its foundation rests on three interconnected principles: trust through dialogue, cooperation through dialogue, and shared development through cooperation.
The international community is increasingly recognizing Uzbekistan’s efforts in this direction. The adoption of the UN General Assembly resolution, the support of more than 40 states, and the growing interest of international organizations, experts and regional partners in the Termez Dialogue clearly demonstrate this trend. Through this platform, Uzbekistan is building a new bridge of trust between Central and South Asia — a bridge strengthened by trade routes, railways, educational programmes, cultural ties and humanitarian initiatives.
Therefore, the Termez Dialogue should be viewed as an emerging architecture of interregional cooperation. It contributes to the formation of Central and South Asia not merely as neighbouring geographic spaces, but as a macro-region united by common interests, shared security and a common future. In this process, Uzbekistan acts as an initiator, organizer and reliable bridge between the two regions.
Sadullaev Qudrat Yusubbaevich
Chief Research Fellow of the Academy of Public Policy and Administration under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Doctor of Law (DSc)
Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim!
Honorable chairman!
Distinguished heads of delegations!
I would like to extend my deep gratitude to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, His Majesty the King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, and His Highness the Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud for hosting this important summit today on the most urgent and painful issue on the global political agenda - the problem of Palestine.
Regrettably, since the historic meeting in Riyadh in 2023, the scope of this unfair and violent war has further widened.
Despite the resolute efforts and urges of the international community, flagrant violation of international norms and resolutions continues to this day.
We are all dismayed by the fact that now the flames of war encompass Lebanon as well.
As my colleagues have noted in their statements, these devastating and horrific attacks, which have caused the deaths of thousands of innocent children, women and the elderly, are turning into the darkest page of the new history of humanity.
One cannot watch without broken heart how social infrastructure facilities, schools, hospitals, mosques and even entire cities are turning into ruins, leaving millions of civilians homeless and doomed to hunger and disease.
Worst of all, as we all can see, this tragedy on the international arena is being approached through double standards.
This dramatically increases the potential for spillover of the war and poses a serious threat to international security.
Dear participants of the summit!
Uzbekistan fully supports all practical initiatives aimed at addressing the Palestinian-Israeli problem through peace and diplomacy.
In this regard, we believe that today's Summit will demonstrate common political will and unity, develop effective global and regional mechanisms and specific solutions, and swiftly put them in practice.
In first place, here we are referring to the need to drastically increase the role and influence of the United Nations and the Security Council in addressing this long-standing conflict.
Immediate cessation of military action, provision of safe humanitarian corridors and, most importantly, the initiation of peace negotiations should be at constant focus of this universal international structure.
Second. On November 15, the long suffering Palestinian people will celebrate their National Day - the Declaration of State of Palestine.
I am confident that this nation with an ancient and rich history has every right to establish an independent and free state within the borders of 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
In this regard, we fully support the activities of the Global Alliance for Implementation of the Two-State Solution, organized at the initiative of Saudi Arabia.
Third. In order to prevent an unprecedented humanitarian crisis in Palestine and Lebanon, we need to expand the scope of assistance from our countries and within the framework of leading international organizations.
We support increasing the necessary assistance to the activities of UNRWA and other United Nations institutions, which have great experience.
In this regard, we express our readiness to provide free medical care to war-affected Palestinian children and women in Uzbekistan's hospitals.
We also intend to discuss the issue of extending practical assistance to the Palestinian people at the forthcoming GCC-Central Asia Summit in Samarkand next year.
Fourth. As part of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, we should attach greater attention to ensuring the sanctity and preservation of the Holy Al-Aqsa Mosque and other unique historical and cultural sites in Jerusalem.
Dear heads of delegations!
I hope that our extraordinary meeting today will be a big step towards addressing the Middle East problem.
I pray to Allah Almighty to bestow peace and tranquility upon the world and further strengthen the unity of our Ummah.
Thank you for your kind attention.
In recent years, improving the living standards of the population and ensuring access to housing has become one of the top priorities of state policy in Uzbekistan. The reforms being implemented in this area go beyond simply increasing construction volumes — they are being carried out through a comprehensive approach closely linked to accelerating demographic growth and urbanization.
Demographic Factor and Growing Housing Demand
The high rates of demographic growth observed in the country require a fundamental review of housing policy. In recent years, the country’s population has been growing by nearly 800,000 people per year, and the number of new families by 250,000 — figures that demand a sharp acceleration of efforts to meet housing needs. To address this demand, the construction of 110,000 apartments for 2025 alone. By 2040, the goal is to double the number of housing units built annually to 421,000 and increase the mortgage loan portfolio to $56.7 billion.
Urbanization and the Shift to Integrated Construction (Vertical Growth)
Due to rapid population growth and limited land resources, the approach to urban expansion is changing. The approximately 40% of the country’s multi-apartment housing stock, currently made up of 2–3-story buildings, is being replaced by modern housing built on the principle of vertical growth, incorporating social infrastructure and green spaces.
Strict urbanization criteria have been established for the development of “New Uzbekistan” residential districts. In particular, new sites are selected based on the following criteria:
Institutional Reforms and Digitalization
To effectively manage urbanization and the housing market, the National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Urbanization and the Housing Market has been established. This committee coordinates urbanization processes, renovation programs, and the construction of “New Uzbekistan” districts. To prevent uncontrolled urban sprawl, plans are underway to designate 45 agglomeration zones across the country and launch the “Sustainable City” platform. Additionally, a unified digital urbanization platform called “Uy-joy” is being created to consolidate all urban planning processes, a land bank, and project data.
Environmental Sustainability and “Green” Standards
Environmental sustainability is a priority in the modern urbanization process. According to state programs, in “New Uzbekistan” districts, at least 2% of the cost of constructing multi-apartment housing must be allocated to creating green spaces around residential buildings. For large investment projects in Tashkent, it is mandatory that green spaces occupy at least 30% of the area. Housing and construction projects are evaluated and certified according to special “green” standards.
Social Protection and Financing (Mortgage Subsidies)
The acceleration of urbanization must not leave socially vulnerable segments of the population behind in the housing market. To this end, the mortgage subsidy system has been fully automated through the “subsidiya.idm.uz” platform. The system of providing state budget subsidies to cover down payments and interest has been expanded for low-income families, young people under 30, single women in difficult social circumstances, and official labor migrants.
In general, the reforms aimed at improving housing conditions in Uzbekistan are not simply about constructing new buildings — they represent a broad state policy directed at creating a modern urbanization environment that can withstand strong demographic growth, is ecologically clean, have infrastructure, and is comfortable for the population.
This May, Baku will serve as the world's leading platform for discussions on the future of cities. From May 17 to 22, the capital of Azerbaijan will host the 13th Session of the World Urban Forum – the United Nations' leading global forum on sustainable urbanization. The forum's theme is "Housing for All: A Better Urban Future." Organizers indicate that the forum will address both the global housing crisis and the broader impact of housing on building inclusive, resilient, and climate-adapted urban environments.
According to UN-Habitat, nearly 3 billion people worldwide currently lack access to safe and affordable housing, more than 1.1 billion live in informal settlements or slums, and over 300 million are entirely without shelter.
For Uzbekistan, participation in this forum represents an opportunity to present its unique model of urban transformation to an international audience. Having moved beyond its image as a predominantly agrarian republic with ancient historic cities, the country today projects a new reality – expanding agglomerations, large-scale infrastructure modernization, and the growing significance of regional centers.
According to the National Committee on Statistics, as of January 1, 2026, the permanent population of the Republic of Uzbekistan exceeded 38 million, with the urbanization rate reaching 51 percent, representing nearly 20 million urban residents.
These figures mark a significant historical milestone. Uzbekistan has entered a stage in which national strength is measured not only by the throughput capacity of export corridors or the number of industrial zones, but also by the quality, connectivity, environmental sustainability, and economic productivity of its cities.
In contemporary Uzbekistan, a city is no longer merely an administrative unit. It is a place where young people receive education, entrepreneurs launch businesses, families seek affordable housing, and the state tests new approaches to infrastructure, transportation, and territorial governance. Rapid urbanization, however, is frequently perceived as a source of risk.
Indeed, when a city grows faster than its engineering networks, transportation arteries, and social infrastructure – schools, hospitals, parks –it begins to generate social tension rather than opportunity.
The Uzbek experience, however, is of particular interest precisely because urbanization is increasingly treated as a manageable resource for development. This process encompasses not only the construction of new districts, but also a transition toward a fundamentally higher quality of urban environment.
As the President of Uzbekistan has noted, each 1-percent point increase in the urbanization rate generates at least 1 percent of additional economic growth, with commensurate increases in investment flows, business and startup activity, and labor productivity. For this reason, Uzbekistan is developing a unified approach to the sustainable management of urbanization across the country.
To this end, the National Committee on Sustainable Urbanization and Housing Market Development has been established, tasked with implementing state policy in the areas of urbanization, housing construction, urban renewal, and mortgage lending. The Committee will also coordinate and advance programs across these domains.
The Future of Uzbekistan's Cities
According to World Bank projections, more than half of Uzbekistan's population currently resides in cities, and this share could exceed 60% by 2050. Such a trajectory means that urban planning, transportation, waste management, utility services, and public spaces are no longer merely matters of convenience –they are becoming a key determinant of national competitiveness.
This is where the core analytical insight lies: for Uzbekistan, urbanization is not a byproduct of demographic growth but a powerful lever of modernization whose economic rationale is abundantly clear. Quality infrastructure stimulates labor mobility, a livable urban environment attracts investment and talent, and the development of regional centers alleviates pressure on the capital.
While Tashkent naturally plays a pivotal role as the primary center of gravity, the country's sustainable development requires a deliberate shift of focus toward other cities.
Supported by the Asian Development Bank, cities such as Jizzakh, Khavast, Khiva, and Yangiyer are emerging as anchor points of this new geography, where projects for modern and inclusive infrastructure are being implemented. These cities exemplify the transformation of regional centers from peripheral locations into autonomous hubs of growth.
This approach fundamentally reframes the development philosophy. At its core lies not simply the decongestion of Tashkent, but a comprehensive strategy for creating genuine alternatives in the regions –with new employment opportunities, public spaces, transportation connectivity, a business-enabling environment, and high-quality municipal services.
To give powerful impetus to entrepreneurship in the regions, establish production of high value-added goods, and introduce urban living standards and conditions in rural mahallas, a program has been approved for the creation of 33 model districts and cities embodying the "New Uzbekistan" vision. The strategic objectives set by the President of Uzbekistan in this domain are ultimately aimed at transforming the architectural character of New Uzbekistan, while ensuring a dignified standard of living for the population and confidence in the future.
All of these measures are critically important for a country with a predominantly young population, since relocation to the capital must not be perceived by young people as the only viable path to self-fulfillment. In this sense, second-tier cities offer a new life scenario –education, employment, business, and a dignified existence without having to leave one's hometown.
Large-scale investment is being mobilized to realize this potential. In December 2025, the World Bank approved a financial package for Uzbekistan totaling $250 million. The funds will be directed toward improving municipal infrastructure and urban services in 16 districts and cities. The program covers territories with a combined population of approximately 3.6 million people and is expected to directly improve living conditions for roughly 1 million people by 2030. Among the anticipated outcomes are improved transportation access for 300,000 residents, the development of parks and public spaces for 400,000 residents, and the creation of approximately 10,000 temporary jobs in the construction sector.
Uzbekistan's Positive Achievements in Urban Development and Urbanization
Those figures matter not merely as investment statistics. They demonstrate that urban infrastructure is a form of social policy.
A compelling illustration of this principle is the experience of the Aral Sea region, which can be presented as a practical case study in implementing new approaches to territorial adaptation, water resource management, community support, and climate risk mitigation.
It is here that questions of urbanization acquire particular depth. How does one develop settlements in an ecologically vulnerable zone? How does one create employment where the natural environment has suffered severe degradation? How does one integrate afforestation, water security, public health, infrastructure, and the local economy into a coherent whole?
The answers to these questions are relevant not only for Uzbekistan. They hold lessons for many regions of the world where climate change, land degradation, and water scarcity are already affecting urban quality of life. Indeed, the story of Uzbek urbanization is significant not only as a national case study, but as a reflection of a broader strategic shift underway across Central Asia.
This shift marks a move beyond the traditional perception of the region through the prism of geopolitics, energy, raw materials, and transportation corridors. Today, the relevant question is framed differently: what will the cities of Central Asia look like?
Will they simply expand, consuming land and overstretching infrastructure? Or will they evolve into spaces where economic growth is reconciled with environmental responsibility, affordable housing, public transportation, green zones, and meaningful civic participation?
Uzbekistan stands precisely at this crossroads. Its advantages lie in its scale, demographics, and growing attention to regional development. Its challenge is to ensure that the quality of urban planning keeps pace with rapid urban growth.
In this sense, Baku –as host of the World Urban Forum –becomes a symbolic platform for the entire region. For Uzbekistan, it is an opportunity to demonstrate that its urbanization agenda carries both national and international significance. The country has the potential to offer the world a pragmatic yet human-centered approach –one in which the region functions not only as an economic node, but also as a mechanism of social resilience.
Altogether, Uzbekistan today stands on the threshold of the most ambitious urbanization reforms in its history. The new strategic plan envisions decisive measures aimed at supporting demographic growth and improving the welfare of the population. This is the central meaning of Uzbekistan's new urbanization.
Tursunboy Zikirov and Alisher Nizamov,
Heads of Departments,
The Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies
under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Today's events and developments in the international arena once again demonstrate the growing need for the states of the Central and South Asian regions to achieve mutual understanding, solidarity, and a common goal. In this regard, the main goal of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia, held on May 19, 2025, on the theme "Building a Common Space of Peace, Friendship, and Prosperity," was to strengthen regional connectivity and bring cooperation to a new level. It can be said that over the past year, significant results have been achieved on the topical issues discussed during the dialogue. The next Termez Dialogue is also aimed at discussing topical issues such as strengthening cooperation between Central and South Asia, deepening interregional ties and ensuring economic growth, as well as further improving security and sustainable development.
Cultural relations. It should be noted that today the city of Termez has become an important center for ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan and restoring its economy. It is noteworthy that in the past, Termez was a center of intercultural and religious dialogue, where Zoroastrianism, Buddhism, Christianity, and Islamic traditions emerged and developed. Eldor Aripov, Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, noted that the city, located between the Greco-Bactrian, Kushan, and other ancient states, flourished during the Timurid era and became a major center of trade, craftsmanship, and science[1]. Indeed, if we look at our history, the countries of Central Asia and the South Asian region have always developed harmoniously as a single space, closely cooperating in all areas. The works of the great thinker Abu Rayhan Beruni "India," Zahiriddin Muhammad Babur "Baburnama" and other historical sources are clear evidence of these close ties. Furthermore, the following remarks by Muhammad Sobir Turkestani, Deputy Ambassador of Afghanistan to Uzbekistan, deserve attention: "Both Uzbekistan and Afghanistan are located on the land between two rivers, which was once called Mawarannahr." There are many similarities in our cultures. The cultural heritage of Alisher Navoi is the wealth of the peoples of Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The remains of our ancestor Alisher Navoi are in the Herat region. All the minarets built in Herat during the reign of Sultan Husayn Bayqara stand as a single complex. Zahiriddin Muhammad Babur was buried in Kabul. In a complex called Babur's Garden. There are also large cultural museums in Afghanistan. Our antiquities are kept in our museums in Kabul, Herat, and Mazar-i-Sharif.[2]" Undoubtedly, the main goal of our efforts today is to restore these historical ties, further strengthen the bonds of friendship and brotherhood between our peoples, and ultimately raise the development of our countries to a new level. To this end, Uzbekistan has been increasingly developing ties with South Asian countries in recent years.
It should be noted that the education sector in Afghanistan has experienced a deep decline due to the long-standing unstable situation. In such a situation, it should be noted that assisting the Afghan people in obtaining education and training personnel with modern knowledge and skills is one of the most rational ways to lead Afghanistan out of the crisis. In this regard, in accordance with the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated November 13, 2017, "On organizing the activities of the Educational Center for Training Afghan Citizens under the Ministry of Higher and Secondary Specialized Education of the Republic of Uzbekistan," an Educational Center for Training Afghan Citizens operates in the city of Termez, Surkhandarya region. During the 2018-2019 academic year, 96 students studied at the Center in the "Uzbek Language and Literature" direction, all of whom received a bachelor's degree from the Alisher Navoi Tashkent State University of Uzbek Language and Literature.
Economic relations. It should be noted that the impossibility of achieving any positive results with weapons and troops in establishing peace and stability on Afghan soil was once again confirmed by the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021. From this perspective, today Uzbekistan's economic ties with Afghanistan serve as one of the important factors in establishing peace and economic recovery in the country.
According to estimates by the Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan, mutual trade turnover amounted to $653 million in 2021, $688.8 million in 2022, $784.1 million in 2023, and $999.9 million in January-November 2024[3]. Over the past five years, trade turnover has increased 2.5 times, reaching $1.68 billion in 2025, while Uzbekistan's exports amounted to approximately $1.5 billion. The parties set a new medium-term goal to increase the volume of trade to $5 billion. Therefore, today Uzbekistan is becoming one of the key investors in Afghanistan. Specifically, according to a $1 billion agreement signed between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, Uzbekistan will participate in the development of the Tuti Maidan gas field in the Jauzjan and Faryab regions for 10 years. The Termez International Trade Center, established in the Surkhandarya region, plays a very important role in implementing such trade and economic instruments. This shopping center is the first trade zone in Central Asia serving various entrepreneurs, especially Afghan entrepreneurs, who cooperate with Afghanistan. The shopping center features permanent exhibitions and fairs, an Uzbek-Afghan business school, a medical clinic for the treatment and provision of medical care to patients who are citizens of Afghanistan, a hotel, enterprises specializing in the production of precious metal jewelry, a multi-currency system, and other conditions that allow entrepreneurs to trade freely.
According to analytical data, 60% of Uzbekistan's total international traffic passes through the transit routes of Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. Uzbekistan's access to seaports through Afghanistan is 2-3 times shorter than the ports with access to the Black and Baltic Seas, and 5 times shorter than the route to Pacific ports[4]. According to economic analysts, the cost of delivering one container from Central Asia to South Asia through Afghanistan to seaports will decrease from $900 to $286. In addition, transportation time will be reduced from 35 days to 3-5 days. At the same time, export potential will also increase sharply. Improving transport and infrastructure communications and attracting international transit carriers to Central Asia is one of the most important tasks uniting the countries of the region. Its resolution is determined by the need to improve the socio-economic situation in the region.
In conclusion, it should be noted that this prestigious international conference will contribute to the further expansion of ties between our regions, the opening of new horizons for cooperation, and our confident progress on the path of peace and development.
Furthermore, the Termez Dialogue, as a platform for strengthening interregional connectivity and restoring common historical, cultural, and civilizational ties, opens opportunities for the development of new international transport and logistics corridors through Afghanistan. In the current difficult conditions of growing mutual trust and conflict of interests, such a format of cooperation as the Termez Dialogue is of great importance.
Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies, Foreign policy and international economic relations Deputy Director of the Institute PhD., O. Abdurakhmonov
[1] Eldor Aripov: "Termiz muloqoti Markaziy va Janubiy Osiyo o‘rtasidagi o‘zaro bog‘liqlikni mustahkamlashda muhim ahamiyatga ega". (21.05.2025), https://daryo.uz/2025/05/21/eldor-aripov-termiz-muloqoti-markaziy-va-janubiy-osiyo-ortasidagi-ozaro-bogliqlikni-mustahkamlashda-muhim-ahamiyatga-ega
[2] Afg‘onistonda O‘zbekistonga aloqador madaniy boyliklar kam emas. (07.11.2023). https://xabar.uz/uz/madaniyat/afgonistonda-ozbekistonga-aloqador-madaniy-boyliklar-kam-emas
[3] O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Tashqi savdo aylanmasi. 2024-yil yanvar-noyabr oylari uchun dastlabki ma’lumot // O‘zbekiston Respublikasi huzuridagi Statistika agentligi. – B.4.
[4] Akmalov Sh. O‘zbekiston va Afg‘oniston: o‘tmishdan hozirgacha. Monografiya. – T.: “Zamon poligraf”, 2023. – B. 70.
Amid growing water scarcity and climate instability in Central Asia, Uzbekistan and Finland are implementing a unique form of scientific cooperation that combines digital innovation with sustainable water resource management.
In 2021, the Ministry of Mining Industry and Geology of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) signed a Memorandum of Understanding aimed at the rational development of natural resources through advanced technologies. Today, this project stands as an example of scientific diplomacy that unites European expertise with Uzbekistan’s potential.
From Paper Maps to Digital Models.
For many years, hydrogeological maps of Uzbekistan existed only in paper form. Within the framework of the joint project, they were digitized using the ArcGIS platform, creating a unified national groundwater database. This digital transformation enables specialists to monitor aquifer conditions, analyze water balances, and forecast the impacts of climate change.
Finnish experts conducted a series of training programs for Uzbek specialists, introducing modern methods of digital mapping and data processing. This strengthened the professional capacity of the sector and laid the foundation for scientifically grounded and transparent water resource management.
Scientific Practice: Experimental Site in Akhangaran.
An experimental site was established in the Akhangaran district of the Tashkent region, where joint research teams conducted geophysical studies and developed digital models of groundwater flow. The obtained data help predict groundwater levels, plan water supply systems, and identify areas vulnerable to drought.
The use of the MODFLOW software package made it possible to create models that provide scientifically based solutions for water resource allocation — particularly important for regions with limited water reserves.
European Partnership for Climate Resilience.
Cooperation with Finland is part of a broader European agenda aimed at supporting climate adaptation and sustainable development in Central Asia. By combining European technologies with Uzbekistan’s scientific resources, the project demonstrates how international partnerships can strengthen ecological security and water stability.
The results of the joint work were published in the journal Water (Scopus) under the title “Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge and Storage Using MODFLOW in the Akhangaran River Alluvial Aquifer, Eastern Uzbekistan.”
Furthermore, new areas of cooperation have opened — with the University of Padua (Italy) in geological risk monitoring, and with the Belarusian Scientific and Production Center for Geology in groundwater observation.
Looking Ahead.
The joint project between Uzbekistan and Finland is more than a transfer of technology — it represents a step toward creating a new culture of rational water use and responsible climate action. The establishment of a national digital hydrogeological database will become a key element in the country’s environmentally sustainable development.
As Europe and Central Asia continue to strengthen cooperation in water, energy, and climate, the Uzbek-Finnish project serves as a model of how scientific initiatives can deliver tangible environmental and social benefits.
At the invitation of the of President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, on January 13 President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev departed to this country with an official visit.
In accordance with the program negotiations at the highest level, as well as bilateral meetings with the heads of leading organizations, companies and banks of the UAE will be conducted in the Emirates’ capital of Abu Dhabi.
President of Uzbekistan will also participate in the activities of the international summit “Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week”.
In the framework of the visit, the Head of our state will visit Dubai, where he will hold a meeting with Vice President, Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates, Emir of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.
According to the CERR bank ranking results for 2025, the stable positions of most financial institutions indicate a higher competitiveness threshold across the sector. At the same time, a noticeable reshuffling has emerged within the mid-tier segment.
The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented an updated Bank Ranking based on the results of the Bank Activity Index for Q4 2025. The study covers 35 commercial banks of the republic, including 20 large financial institutions classified by scale and branch network, and 15 banks categorized as small. The methodology is based on the analysis of 27 indicators, benchmarked against national averages and international standards, including Basel Committee requirements. The ranking serves as an important tool for enhancing transparency and strengthening trust in the financial system. This approach is consistent with international practice and is used by leading financial institutions worldwide.
Financial results for Q4 2025
During the reporting period, total assets of the banking sector amounted to 892.9 trillion soums ($74.2 bn), while liabilities reached 759.8 trillion soums ($63.1 bn). Lending increased by 13%, while deposits grew by 31%. The share of foreign-currency transactions declined, indicating strengthening of the national currency. Net profit reached 13.5 trillion soums ($1.1 bn), which is 57.1% higher than a year earlier. Over the period under review, the share of non-performing loans decreased to 3.5% from 4.3% a year earlier, pointing to improved portfolio quality. At the same time, in some banks this indicator remains above the sector average. Capital adequacy ratios exceed minimum regulatory requirements by more than 1.4 times, confirming the resilience of the banking sector.
Activity ranking of large banks for Q4 2025
The results for Q4 2025 show that sector leaders have maintained stable positions, while reshuffling within the ranking remains limited. The most notable progress was demonstrated by SQB, which climbed three positions. Positive dynamics were also recorded by Davr Bank, Orient Finance Bank, Xalq Bank, and Ipoteka Bank, all of which improved their standings in the overall ranking. At the same time, only two large banks showed a decline in activity. Invest Finance Bank and Aloqa Bank fell by four and three positions in the overall ranking, respectively. Overall, 13 banks retained their positions in the activity ranking, which, amid intensifying competition, reflects the ability of institutions to maintain operational efficiency, adequate liquidity, asset quality, and financial stability.
Dynamics of key indicators
In financial intermediation, Tenge Bank and Ipak Yuli Bank showed a decline in efficiency in attracting and allocating resources, losing four and three positions, respectively. National Bank, Asia Alliance Bank, Anor Bank, BDB, and Mikrokreditbank also dropped by one position in this category. In terms of financial inclusion, a one-position decline was recorded for Orient Finance Bank, Xalq Bank, Agrobank, BDB, and Ipoteka Bank. Regarding asset quality, six large banks registered a decline. Agrobank lost three positions, while National Bank, Trast Bank, Anor Bank, Aloqa Bank, and Asaka Bank each lost two positions. Despite the overall positive profit dynamics in the sector, two banks posted a decline in profitability, namely National Bank and Anor Bank, which fell by two and one positions, respectively. In management efficiency, weaker positions were observed for Mikrokreditbank and Anor Bank, both down two positions. In terms of liquidity, almost one-third of all large banks in the country lost positions, with the sharpest decline recorded by Davr Bank, down six positions, while Agrobank closed the ranking, falling to the last position on this indicator.
Activity ranking of small banks for Q4 2025
In the group of small banks, relative stability persists. Leaders have retained their positions. The main changes in this category also occurred in the mid-tier segment, where several banks improved their standings due to growth in financial intermediation and higher profitability. In this group, six out of 15 financial institutions, including the ranking leader Universal Bank, retained their positions. At the same time, five banks recorded declines, with the largest drop observed at Ziraat Bank, which lost three positions, while Apex Bank rose by three positions in the overall ranking. AVO Bank and Madad Invest Bank each gained two positions, while Okto Bank gained one position and secured third place in the overall group ranking.
Jafar Khidirov,
Head of Banking and Financial Research Sector