Uzbekistan continues to strengthen its position as one of the most active hubs of cooperation between Central and South Asia. Changes in the global trade architecture, the restructuring of supply chains, and the growing importance of regional markets are increasing the significance of the South Asian direction.

South Asia, home to one of the world's largest consumer markets, substantial industrial potential, and rapidly expanding investment activity, is emerging as one of the key centers of the global economy.

Against this backdrop, Uzbekistan’s cooperation with South Asian countries is increasingly taking on a practical economic dimension. This involves the creation of sustainable mechanisms for trade, investment, and institutional cooperation capable of generating new growth opportunities for the entire region. Afghanistan occupies a special place in this process, serving as a bridge between Central and South Asia.

A practical manifestation of this transformation was the first interregional forum, the Termez Dialogue, held in May 2025 at the International Trade Center “Termez.” The forum became one of the most significant steps in implementing Uzbekistan’s initiative to strengthen connectivity between Central and South Asia, previously enshrined in a dedicated UNGA Resolution.

Discussions focused on trade and economic cooperation, investment, energy, food security, climate resilience, and Afghanistan’s integration into regional processes. The forum’s particular significance lay in its effort to establish a long-term platform for cooperation based on economic interdependence, openness, and shared development.

The decision to hold the Termez Dialogue on a regular basis effectively laid the groundwork for institutionalizing a new format of cooperation, with Termez emerging as one of the new geoeconomic platforms for engagement with South Asian countries.

Uzbekistan’s Trade with South Asia

Today, Uzbekistan is among the most active countries in the region in expanding trade, economic, and investment cooperation with South Asia.

The strengthening of interregional connectivity has been accompanied by growth in trade turnover, investment interaction, and business activity, reflecting a transition from limited cross-border cooperation to a broader model of economic integration.

Over the past 9 years (2016–2025), trade between Uzbekistan and South Asian countries increased 3.2 times, reaching $3.5 bn. Uzbekistan’s exports to the region tripled to $2 bn, while imports increased 4.1 times to $1.5 bn.

The main categories of Uzbekistan’s exports to South Asia include food products worth $976.4 mn (48.1%), mineral oils – $368 mn (18.1%), transport services – $277.8 mn (13.7%), industrial goods – $140.5 mn (6.9%), and chemical products – $134.9 mn (6.6%).

The main import categories from South Asian countries include chemical products worth $477.6 mn (32.2%), food products – $391.4 mn (26.4%), machinery and equipment – $309.1 mn (20.8%), other products – $99 mn (6.7%), and finished products – $67 mn (4.5%).

In 2025, the largest share of trade with South Asia was accounted for by Afghanistan. The predominance of Uzbek exports made Afghanistan a highly beneficial trade and economic partner, ranking first among South Asian countries in terms of Uzbekistan’s trade turnover, which reached $1.7 bn, or 47.7% of total trade with the region.

Food exports to Afghanistan amounted to $712.7 mn, while Afghanistan accounted for 75.5% of Uzbekistan’s food exports to South Asia.

Trade and economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and India has also expanded significantly in recent years. India ranked second among South Asian trading partners, with bilateral trade reaching $1.3 bn in 2025 (37.5% of total trade with the region).

India ranked second among Uzbekistan’s South Asian trading partners, with bilateral trade reaching $1.3 bn in 2025, accounting for 37.5% of Uzbekistan’s total trade with the region.

Pakistan ranked third, with trade turnover amounting to $445.9 mn, or 12.7% of Uzbekistan’s total trade with South Asia. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s exports to Pakistan consisted of food products worth $260.2 mn, industrial goods worth $21.2 mn, services worth $30.1 mn, and non-food raw materials worth $13.2 mn.

Imports from Pakistan in 2025 included food products worth $56.2 mn, chemical products worth $45.3 mn, industrial goods worth $6.4 mn, and various finished products worth $5.2 mn.

Over the past 9 years, the volume of foreign direct investment and loans attracted from South Asian countries to Uzbekistan totaled $1.3 bn, including $510 mn in 2025 alone. The largest contributions came from India ($586.7 mn) and Afghanistan ($519.2 mn).

Termez as a Hub of Interregional Connectivity

Termez occupies a special place in the development of Uzbekistan’s cooperation with South Asian countries. Located at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, the city serves as a trade, investment, and humanitarian hub connecting the two regions.

Historically, Termez played an important role in the system of interregional relations, situated at the intersection of the largest trade and civilizational spaces of Eurasia. Owing to its strategic geographic location, Termez linked India, Afghanistan, and Central Asia as early as ancient times, while during the Timurid era it was one of the region’s prominent administrative, commercial, and scientific centers.

The city’s current stage of development reflects the gradual restoration of this historical role under new geoeconomic conditions.

Since 2016, the Termez Cargo Center international logistics hub has been operating in the city, strategically located at the intersection of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. In recent years, it has become one of the largest channels for delivering humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan through the mechanisms of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

An additional impetus to regional development came with the opening of the Airitom International Trade Center in 2024, located in close proximity to the Afghan border. Today, the center is gradually evolving not only into a trading platform but also into a comprehensive geoeconomic hub bringing together logistics, business, educational, and humanitarian initiatives.

The center hosts a free trade zone with simplified business conditions for companies from South Asian countries. A visa-free regime has been introduced, transactions in foreign currencies are permitted, and entrepreneurs from Afghanistan and Pakistan have been granted the opportunity to conduct business within the complex. At the same time, social infrastructure, including educational and healthcare facilities, continues to develop.

At present, the Airitom International Trade Center covers 36 hectares, includes more than 3,000 retail outlets, and provides approximately 5,500 jobs. Since its opening, the center has been visited by more than 440,000 people, while annual exports have reached $1.2 bn.

Termez is also home to an educational institution for Afghan citizens, and a workforce development system is being expanded to support growing interregional cooperation.

In practice, Termez is becoming one of the key centers of economic interaction between Central and South Asia. The development of trade infrastructure, logistics, humanitarian projects, and business activity is strengthening economic ties between the two regions and enhancing Uzbekistan’s role in promoting interregional cooperation.

Against this backdrop, the Termez Dialogue is gaining importance as a permanent platform for aligning the long-term interests of the countries of Central and South Asia. The upcoming forum creates opportunities for advancing joint initiatives in trade, investment, food security, water resources, and sustainable development.

At the same time, the regular format of the Dialogue contributes to the development of a more sustainable model of interregional engagement based on pragmatic cooperation, economic interdependence, and the expansion of practical cooperation mechanisms between the two regions.

A New Economic Architecture of Connectivity

The significance of the Termez Dialogue extends beyond the framework of a traditional international forum. It reflects a broader transformation taking place across Eurasia, where regional connectivity, resilient supply chains, and economic cooperation are becoming increasingly important drivers of growth and stability.

For Uzbekistan, strengthening ties with South Asia represents not only an opportunity to diversify trade and investment flows but also a strategic instrument for enhancing the country’s role as a bridge between major regional markets.

The growing interconnectedness of Central and South Asia creates new opportunities for expanding trade routes, attracting investment, developing transport and logistics infrastructure, and strengthening cooperation in energy, agriculture, education, and human capital development.

Afghanistan occupies a central place within this emerging framework. Its integration into regional economic processes has the potential to transform it from a source of geopolitical uncertainty into an important transit, trade, and economic partner linking the two regions.

The development of practical cooperation mechanisms through platforms such as the Termez Dialogue may therefore contribute not only to economic growth but also to greater regional stability and long-term prosperity.

Through initiatives aimed at strengthening interregional connectivity, Uzbekistan is consistently promoting a vision of cooperation based on openness, mutual benefit, and shared development.

The experience of recent years demonstrates that expanding economic ties between Central and South Asia is no longer merely a political aspiration but an increasingly tangible economic reality supported by growing trade, rising investment flows, and expanding business engagement.

The institutionalization of the Termez Dialogue provides an important mechanism for sustaining this momentum. By bringing together governments, businesses, international organizations, and experts, the forum creates conditions for identifying common interests and developing coordinated approaches to regional challenges.

The continued development of trade infrastructure, logistics corridors, investment cooperation, and humanitarian initiatives centered around Termez further strengthens the city’s role as a gateway between Central and South Asia.

In this regard, the Termez Dialogue is evolving into a long-term platform for shaping a new model of regional cooperation – one based not on competition but on economic complementarity, interdependence, and shared prosperity.

As connectivity between the two regions deepens, Termez is increasingly positioned not only as a geographical crossroads but also as a strategic center of economic interaction capable of facilitating sustainable development across a vast part of Eurasia.

Ziyoda Rizaeva,
Center for Economic Research and Reforms

Belarus and Uzbekistan actively cooperate in the transport and logistics sector within the framework of the Coordinating Transport Conference of the CIS Member States (CIS CTC), the Organization for Cooperation of Railways (OSJD), and the Commonwealth Railway Transport Council (CIS RTC).

An additional basis for the development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation is the participation of both countries in the CIS and SCO, where issues of developing international transport corridors and strengthening transport connectivity between states occupy an important place on the cooperation agenda.

A practical result of cooperation is the steady positive growth in freight traffic between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Republic of Belarus, which is one of the republic's key trade and transport partners.

In terms of export and import freight volumes, Belarus is among Uzbekistan's top ten trading partners. By the end of 2025, freight traffic between the two countries reached 850,000 tons, an increase of 30% compared to the previous year.

The structure of freight traffic is dominated by imports, primarily timber, timber products, and food products, while export volumes remain insignificant and consist primarily of agricultural products.

The current situation demonstrates significant potential for increasing mutual freight traffic, primarily through the expansion of Uzbek exports and the development of new logistics routes.

In the context of geopolitical conflicts and the diversification of global supply chains, the creation of new international transport corridors in Eurasia using mixed modes of transport in the East-West and North-South directions is acquiring strategic importance.

The following are promising cooperation projects:

1. Development of new, optimal alternative transport routes with access to seaports.

A promising area is the development of the international transport route "Belarus – Russia – Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – Indian Ocean ports," which utilizes the shortest railway section running through Kazakhstan between the Dina Nurpeisova and Karakalpakstan stations.

On November 1, 2023, in Tashkent, at the SCO Transport Forum, the transport ministers of Uzbekistan, Russia, and Kazakhstan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the creation and development of this corridor. Belarus and Pakistan joined the Memorandum in 2024, and negotiations are currently underway to add Afghanistan.

The economic logic of the project is very clear. The corridor is approximately half the length of existing alternative routes and reduces delivery times by 2-3 times. It will directly connect the countries of the European Union and the CIS with Southeast and South Asia via a land-based rail and road route, increasing our countries' transit potential by transporting goods to the densely populated countries of South Asia – India and Pakistan – via the Uzbekistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan route.

In the future, joint work is planned to develop uniform standards for the operation of the international transport corridor, including the introduction of a single shipping document and the unification of technological and technical standards.

It should be noted that the new route through Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will contribute to the diversification of the geography and structure of foreign trade and will lead to an increase in the region's transit potential.

This potential is already being demonstrated in practice. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, freight transit to the south through Uzbekistan increased by 23% compared to the same period last year, reaching 1.8 million tons, of which 1.3 million tons were transported by rail and 0.5 million tons by road.

1. Cooperation in Transport Personnel Training.

A significant element of the long-term partnership is cooperation in the training and advanced training of transport specialists.

Belarus has a recognized track record in transport training. For example, the Belarusian State University of Transport in Gomel is a leading specialized educational and research institution, which includes the Institute for Advanced Training and Retraining of Personnel and the Research Institute of Railway Transport.

Developing cooperation between the Belarusian State University of Transport and specialized organizations in Uzbekistan, particularly the Tashkent State Transport University, would enable the organization of internships and advanced training programs for specialists, the development of academic mobility for undergraduate, graduate, and postgraduate students, and joint research in priority areas of rail transport development, multimodal transportation, and international transport logistics.

III. Digitalization of Permit Exchange for Road Transport.

A separate practical area is the transition to the electronic exchange of permit forms—the E-permit system. Uzbekistan currently fully implements this exchange with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, and Turkey, and partially with Tajikistan. Work is underway to launch it with Turkmenistan.

Implementing this system in cooperation with Belarus will ensure transparency in permit distribution, eliminate human error, and strengthen oversight of their use, which is especially relevant given the growing volume of road transport between the countries.

Thus, cooperation between Belarus and Uzbekistan in transport and logistics goes beyond increasing mutual traffic and acquires a strategic dimension.

The implementation of these projects—from a multimodal corridor to Indian Ocean ports to the digitalization of permitting procedures—could transform our countries' geographical location into a real competitive advantage, making the Belarus-Uzbekistan-South Asia route convenient, fast, and predictable.

Joint and consistent work in these areas will strengthen economic ties between the two countries and make a significant contribution to the development of sustainable transport connectivity in the Eurasian space.

Head of Department, Center for the Study of Transport and Logistics Development Problems under the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Uzbekistan Dildora Ibragimova

Akramjon Nematov, First Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan (ISRS), in an analysis for Dunyo IA on the results of the April 24 meeting chaired by the Head of State, emphasized that the country's socio-economic development results for the first quarter of 2026 confirm: the nation has not only adapted to global turbulence but has also developed a reliable internal immunity to external shocks.

According to him, the achieved figures indicate that the national economy has reached a qualitatively new level of dynamic development. Despite unprecedented global market volatility, the disruption of global supply chains, and mounting inflationary pressures, Uzbekistan recorded an impressive GDP growth of 8.7%, significantly exceeding the 6.8% result from the same period last year.

Such a significant breakthrough, the expert is convinced, has been a direct result of the well-considered and consistent strategy of the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, aimed at the fundamental transformation of all spheres of public life. During this challenging period, the state assumed not merely the role of a regulator but that of an active catalyst for modernization: the industrial sector grew by 8%, compared with 4.1% in 2025, while the services sector, which has become the engine of renewal, surged by 16.1%. Against the backdrop of global instability, Uzbekistan, for the first time on an annual basis, managed to curb inflation, reducing it from 10.6% in March 2025 to 7.1% in the current period, thereby opening new horizons for long-term investment planning.

The country’s leadership has made a significant contribution, reflected in unprecedented financial support for entrepreneurship. In 2026, 140 trillion UZS are being allocated for these purposes through the banking system, 30% more than last year. Targeted assistance to mahallas in the first quarter alone amounted to 3.6 trillion UZS, a 25% increase, enabling local budgets to generate an additional 2.2 trillion UZS in revenue.

As the expert noted, during the critical analysis, the Head of State emphasized that the quantitative records achieved must serve as a foundation for significant structural improvements in the economy, necessitating a transition to an advanced, innovative development model. One of the central tasks identified is a sharp increase in labour productivity, which should rise by at least 10-15% through the integration of modern technologies and management standards. The state aims to fully move away from the raw-materials-exporter model toward the creation of high-tech regional value chains, engaging more than 40 global brands as strategic partners.

Particular attention is being paid to the efficiency of project management. With a record volume of foreign investment in the quarter totalling USD 13.7 billion, 1.6 times higher than last year, the focus is shifting toward precise monitoring of returns. The President has decided to elevate the economy to a new international level: as early as next month, 30% of state assets worth USD 2.4 billion will be listed on international stock markets. This has become possible due to the transfer of management of 13 strategic enterprises of the National Investment Fund to the reputable company Franklin Templeton. At the same time, the state is accelerating reform of the energy framework, allocating USD 50 million for concessional lending to support businesses in transitioning to renewable energy sources, and creating a digital logistics infrastructure capable of increasing exports through electronic platforms, raising the target to USD 700 million.

At the same time, expert analysis shows that external challenges are not only persisting but also intensifying significantly: the continued rise in global energy prices and the increasing complexity of global logistics are creating tangible pressure on domestic production costs and competitiveness.

Under current conditions, activities in the external sphere must be maximally synchronized with domestic reforms. This implies a focus on facilitating technology transfer, attracting smart capital into artificial intelligence, and diversifying transport corridors to strengthen Uzbekistan’s status as a central link in regional connectivity. The steady acceleration of exports and the systematic removal of barriers for high-value-added products today require deep coordination between the state and the private sector, as well as the mobilization of all available resources to achieve qualitative results, the expert believes.

To maintain current high growth rates and reach new milestones, it is necessary, as the President emphasized, to radically increase the flexibility of managerial decision-making and execution discipline at the local level. It is important to transform quantitative growth into the structural quality of the economy, to ensure development through a multiple increase in productivity and the creation of high added value in key sectors.

The balanced and proactive foreign policy of the country’s leader creates the necessary zone of stability at the regional level. However, it is precisely the internal mobilization of the public administration, an uncompromising focus on innovation, and the efficiency of management that are today the decisive conditions for enabling Uzbekistan to successfully transform global pressure into new “windows of opportunity” for long-term national prosperity.

Dunyo IA

The Head of State identified priorities for updating the activities of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and foreign diplomatic missions

On January 15, an expanded meeting was chaired by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on the activities of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and diplomatic missions abroad, reports Dunyo IA correspondent.

Opening the session, the Head of our state noted that the meeting is taking place amid sharp geopolitical changes in the world and increasing threats to the sovereignty of states. In this regard, the need to critically assess current foreign policy activities and move to a renewed format for organizing the work of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and foreign diplomatic missions was emphasized.

President noted that 2025 had been a productive year for the country's foreign policy. During the year, high-level visits were made to 26 foreign countries, and for the first time in recent history, visits to Uzbekistan were organized by the leaders of a number of countries. Multilateral dialogues in the “Central Asia Plus” format became productive. In recent years, strategic partnerships have been established with 11 countries, bringing the total number to 19, and allied relations have been built with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan.

– As a result of an open, pragmatic, thoughtful and proactive foreign policy, Uzbekistan is consistently strengthening its position as one of the global centres of peace and diplomacy, – emphasized President.

Since 2017, 16 new diplomatic missions and consulates have been opened abroad, bringing their total number to 60, and the number of countries with which diplomatic relations have been established to 165. There has also been an increase in the number of staff and salaries of employees of embassies, consular offices, representative offices to international organizations and employees of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

At the same time, a fundamental question was raised as to whether all diplomatic missions are making full use of the opportunities provided.

– In the current environment, an ambassador is not just a person who conducts political dialogue. An ambassador is a state representative who attracts investment and technologies, opens new export markets, launches transport and logistics corridors, increases tourist flows, creates conditions for legal labor migration and, most importantly, protects the rights of our citizens, - emphasized President.

In this regard, it was noted that key performance indicators for ambassadors should include the volume of export revenues from the countries of residence, growth in tourist flows and the effectiveness of organizing legal labor migration.

Particular emphasis was placed on the need to increase exports and investments by strengthening economic diplomacy.

As part of bilateral and multilateral events in 2025, agreements were signed on investment projects and trade contracts totaling $160 billion. For the first time in history, foreign trade turnover exceeded $80 billion, exports reached $33,5 billion, and foreign investment exceeded $43 billion. Exports to 75 countries increased by almost $4,5 billion.

In view of this, the ambassadors have been tasked with expanding export deliveries to the Middle East, Europe, Asia, and Africa, as well as implementing specific projects in the fields of industry, agriculture, the chemical industry, the textile industry, greenhouse farming, and the service sector. At the same time, it was noted that Uzbekistan's products remain insufficiently recognized in certain markets.

It was noted that the growth of logistics costs has a negative impact on the competitiveness of domestic products. In this regard, the need to diversify transit routes, optimize logistics chains, and develop additional proposals to reduce transportation costs when entering European markets was indicated.

In the agricultural sector, tasks have been set for researching and implementing water-saving technologies, modern agricultural technologies, and innovative greenhouse solutions. Along with this, measures have been outlined to expand export markets for chemical industry products, bring domestic manufacturers up to international standards and requirements, and organize specialized exhibitions and presentations.

The need to intensify trade and economic cooperation with the African continent as one of the promising new export destinations has been emphasized. To this end, a clear roadmap is to be developed with the participation of relevant ministries and foreign diplomatic missions.

It was noted that ambassadors should be directly interested in finding promising projects, attracting them, and implementing them in practice. In this regard, it was decided to introduce financial incentives for ambassadors who bring specific investment or export projects to a logical conclusion.

Criticism was levelled at the insufficient realisation of existing potential in a number of areas. In particular, it was noted that opportunities to attract international grants are not being fully exploited. It was noted that with closer and more systematic interaction between ministries, industry leaders, and ambassadors, it would have been possible to attract an additional $200-300 million in grant funds last year.

As noted, international organizations and donor countries announce grant programs worth approximately $200 billion annually. In this regard, the task has been set to implement a unified, systematic and effective approach to working with grants.

In addition, the need to take concrete measures, together with the ambassadors to the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, China, Japan and Singapore, to attract leading foreign universities ranked in the top 100 worldwide as partners of Uzbek higher education institutions was emphasized.

It was noted that cooperation between regions and diplomatic missions in expanding foreign economic relations is still insufficient. The need for active participation of regional governors, together with ambassadors, in the systematic promotion of export-oriented products of the regions and in facilitating the entry of local enterprises into foreign markets was emphasized.

Providing Uzbek citizens with legal and high-paying jobs abroad was identified as another priority area. The expansion of the geography of organized labor migration was noted, while it was pointed out that in a number of countries, work in this area is not sufficiently effective and relevant instructions were given in this regard.

It was emphasized that embassies and consulates should actively protect the rights and legitimate interests of citizens and provide qualified legal assistance in each specific case. The task has been set to abandon "office diplomacy", strengthen work in the field and establish direct dialogue with compatriots.

In the field of tourism, the need to further strengthen the role of ambassadors, introduce new approaches to promoting the country's tourism and cultural potential, make effective use of visa-free regimes and attract international outsourcing companies has been identified.

Issues related to expanding foreign policy ties, high-quality and timely preparation of high-level visits, retraining of diplomatic personnel, and the formation of a reserve of promising specialists were also discussed.

The intensification of foreign information policy and the improvement of the country's international image through systematic work with foreign media and the implementation of special media projects were identified as priority tasks.

The need to update the Concept of foreign policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, review its priority areas, and define clear tasks for protecting national interests and strengthening the country's position in the international arena was emphasized.

As the President noted, the new concept should comprehensively reflect long-term strategic goals, the logic of internal reforms as well as national interests in the areas of economic diplomacy, security, investment, exports, transport and logistics, water and climate issues.

In order to give proper recognition to the achievements of diplomats, it was proposed to establish the honorary title of “Honored Diplomat of the Republic of Uzbekistan".

At the end of the meeting, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev emphasized: “The time has come for a new generation of diplomats – those who achieve concrete results and firmly defend the interests of Uzbekistan in the international arena”.

In the course of the session, reports and proposals of our ambassadors abroad were heard.

Dunyo IA

In January, growth in the business climate was mainly driven by an outpacing increase in the expectations component. The agricultural sector and services became the key drivers of business confidence.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of its business climate analysis based on monthly surveys of entrepreneurs across the republic. Based on the collected data, a composite Business Climate Indicator was formed, reflecting both current assessments of business conditions and expectations for the next 3 months.

Dynamics of Uzbekistan’s Composite Business Climate

In January of the current year, Uzbekistan’s composite Business Climate Index stood at 64 points (on a scale from −100 to +100), which is 23% higher than the level of 2025.

The improvement in the business climate was primarily driven by stronger assessments of the current business situation, which increased by 28%.

An additional contribution came from improved optimism regarding short-term business prospects. In particular, business expectations rose by 20%.

According to the survey, 22% of enterprises increased their number of employees. At the same time, 71% of respondents expect demand for their products to grow over the next three months, compared to about 60% in the same period last year.

The share of enterprises forecasting an increase in employment in the coming quarter rose to 65%, up from 58% a year earlier.

Sectoral Dynamics of the Business Climate Index

In sectoral terms, an improvement in the business climate compared to last year was observed in construction, agriculture, and services.

In agriculture, the Business Climate Index increased by 62% year-on-year and reached 77 points, compared to 48 points in January 2025.

Growth was mainly supported by a significant improvement in assessments of current conditions and more favorable expectations. The current situation indicator in the sector increased 2.7 times from 27 to 72 points, while expectations grew by 17% to reach 82 points.

44% of entrepreneurs assessed the condition of their business in the sector as “good,” compared to 39% a year earlier. Growth in demand for products over the past three months was reported by 46% of enterprises versus 39% in January last year. Expectations for further demand growth in the near term remain high at 71%, compared to 68% a year earlier.

In the services sector, the business climate increased by 25% compared to January last year, reaching 65 points versus 52 points a year earlier.

Growth was driven by a gradual improvement in current business conditions. Current assessments in services rose by 18% to 52 points. At the same time, a more pronounced increase was observed in the expectations component, which grew by 32% to 79 points, indicating a substantial strengthening of companies’ confidence in short-term prospects.

70% of entrepreneurs expect demand for their services to grow over the next three months, compared to 58% in January 2025. The share of enterprises expecting to increase employment in the coming quarter amounted to 61%, up from 54% a year earlier.

In the construction sector, the business climate increased by 13% to 61 points, compared to 54 points a year earlier. The current situation indicator improved by 43% to 57 points. Expectations were formed at the level of 66 points, showing a decline of 4%.

38% of respondents reported that business conditions in construction had improved over the past three months, compared to 35% a year earlier. The share of enterprises reporting workforce growth rose to 38% from 22% a year earlier. Expectations of demand growth over the next three months were expressed by 77% of entrepreneurs, compared to 61% in January last year.

In industry, the business climate slightly declined by 5% compared to last year, while remaining at a sufficiently high level of 54 points.

At the same time, optimism among industrial enterprises remains steadily high. In January, expectations increased by 10%, reaching 78 points, indicating a continued positive outlook regarding development prospects.

According to the survey, the share of respondents reporting an improvement in business conditions over the past three months reached 32%, compared to 30% a year earlier. Demand growth over the same period was noted by 38% of industrial enterprises versus 36% in January last year. Meanwhile, employment expansion plans strengthened — 69% of entrepreneurs expect to increase their workforce in the next three months, compared to 62% a year earlier.

Barriers to Entrepreneurial Activity

According to the survey, more than half (57%) of entrepreneurs see no barriers in their activities. Among the problems cited, the most frequent are taxation (11%), utilities (9%), and access to credit (8%).

CERR Sector for the Study of Sectoral Competitiveness and Investment Activity

Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (441)

CERR Public Relations and Media Sector

Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (417)

The Fifth Tashkent International Investment Forum will take place on June 16–19, 2026. This year’s theme – “Investment Resilience: New Frontiers, New Partnerships” – frames the agenda around a set of pressing questions: how to protect capital amid global uncertainty, what institutional mechanisms enhance investment resilience in frontier markets, and where the new partnership routes lie.

The forum’s context is set by macroeconomic results. According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025 and exceeded $147 billion – the fastest pace since 2021 and among the highest in the Europe and Central Asia region. Fitch Ratings and S&P Global upgraded the country’s sovereign rating from BB– to BB for the first time, while Moody’s revised its outlook to “positive.” International reserves, per the Central Bank, surpass $77 billion. Exports rose 24% to $33.8 billion. Foreign direct investment increased by 46.9%, with FDI accounting for 40.5% of total capital investment. For an economy that attracted only $4 billion in annual foreign investment in 2017, the surge to $42 billion by 2025 represents a fundamentally different scale of growth. This tenfold increase over eight years underscores a profound transformation in the nation's investment landscape.

The forum is scaling alongside the economy. Last year’s TIIF drew over 8,000 participants, including some 3,000 international delegates from 97 countries. Guests included Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, heads of government from all Central Asian states, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, and New Development Bank President Dilma Rousseff. The aggregate value of signed investment contracts and trade agreements reached $30.5 billion. Yet what best speaks to the platform’s maturity is not the number of signings but the conversion rate – the share of agreements that translate into operating assets is increasingly the metric that matters to returning investors.

The centrepiece of this year’s forum will be the Tashkent International Financial Centre (TIFC), established by presidential decree in March 2026. Behind the headline sits a specific institutional architecture: a special legal regime based on common-law principles, a dedicated financial services regulator, an arbitration centre (TIAC), and tax exemptions through 2076. TIFC is part of a global trend toward specialised financial hubs that offer international market participants a familiar legal environment and regulatory predictability. Its defining feature is integration within the country’s legal framework: the centre operates under a special legal regime rather than creating a separate jurisdiction, reducing regulatory fragmentation and simplifying engagement with the domestic economy. A panel session featuring leaders of major global financial centres and international investors operating in Uzbekistan will address the central question: what are the practical conditions under which TIFC can attract international market participants.

The TIIF 2026 programme is structured around four thematic pillars: investment resilience and capital protection mechanisms, financial infrastructure and capital market development, trade connectivity and logistics corridors, and energy transition and climate finance. Key sessions include a discussion of the regulatory framework for alternative investment funds (a legal basis for private equity and venture capital being adopted for the first time), a panel on the Middle Corridor and trans-Caspian logistics, a session on sovereign ratings across Central Asia, and a practitioner-led workshop on blended finance instruments in frontier markets. A dedicated arbitration and dispute resolution track features two panel sessions co-organised with the Tashkent International Arbitration Centre (TIAC), the British-Uzbek Legal Association (BrULA), and the British Embassy. Topics range from the institutional design of Uzbekistan’s arbitration ecosystem – including the innovative Dispute Avoidance Protocol (DAP) – to the country’s positioning within the global investment protection architecture: ISDS frameworks, bilateral investment treaty reform, and New York Convention enforcement.

The energy agenda warrants particular attention. Uzbekistan has set an ambitious target of raising the share of renewables in electricity generation to 54% by 2030. Currently, the country operates solar and wind facilities with a combined installed capacity exceeding 4 GW, with a project pipeline envisaging an additional 19 GW of green capacity. Alongside this, the public-private partnership mechanism continues to develop: as of early 2025, PPP agreements worth approximately $28 billion had been signed in the country. For investors, this represents a large, structured market with standardised PPA contracts and a clear entry mechanism – a subject that will be examined in detail during the forum’s energy panel.

TIIF 2026 retains its bilateral business forum format, reflecting the expanding geography of Uzbekistan’s economic partnerships. Confirmed platforms include business forums with the Republic of Korea, the United States, Croatia, Hungary, Turkey, and Albania, as well as a China–SCO countries investment dialogue; the lineup continues to grow as the event approaches. The plenary session featuring heads of state and government will set the tone for the business programme. Running in parallel is an exhibition of industrial and investment potential spanning approximately 6,000 sq m – in 2025, a comparable facility facilitated over 500 B2B and B2G meetings for 100 participating companies.

At the same time, the forum agenda implicitly flags unresolved challenges. The corporate governance session raises the question of transitioning from concentrated to dispersed ownership – a process without which the stock market will remain illiquid. The discussion of privatisation and state asset IPOs calls for a candid conversation about pacing and institutional quality. The responsible business conduct panel, anchored in OECD standards, recognises that tax incentives alone are insufficient for accessing institutional capital – what is needed is verifiable supply chain transparency and functioning National Contact Point mechanisms.

The business programme is complemented by networking formats: an FIC and EY business breakfast on digitalisation and AI, the annual SQB Investor Day, an ESG Award ceremony, and the European Business Evening. The informal component – an invitational tennis tournament, TIIF Open, and an evening run – is designed for delegates who prefer to build relationships beyond the conference hall. The anniversary evening concludes with a collaboration with the Stihia electronic music festival – a detail that captures the tone in which Uzbekistan presents itself to an international audience.

For Uzbekistan, TIIF has long ceased to be a showcase. It is a working instrument of investment policy, whose effectiveness is measured not by the number of signing ceremonies but by the volume of capital that actually enters the economy between forums. The fifth, anniversary edition takes place at a moment when the country is simultaneously launching an international financial centre, adopting an alternative investment funds law, and receiving a sovereign rating upgrade – a convergence that creates a window of opportunity for investors prepared to operate in frontier markets with a growing institutional base.

In recent years, taking into account international standards and advanced foreign experience, ensuring the protection of the rights of convicts, respect for their honor and dignity, education of morality and conscientious work for further social adaptation in society upon release, a fundamental improvement of the penal enforcement legislation in the Republic of Uzbekistan has been carried out with the introduction of effective legal mechanisms.

Currently, there are a number of international conventions and provisions aimed at protecting the rights of convicts, which are regulated by the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. (1966), "Convention against torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment" (1984), "Declaration on the protection of all persons from torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment" (1975), "Standard minimum rules for the treatment of convicts (Nelson Mandela rules)" (2015), "UN rules for the protection of minor children deprived of liberty " (1990), "Basic principles of the treatment of convicts" (1990).

Based on the norms of these international documents developed and adopted by the international community on standards for the treatment of convicts, systematic work is underway in the country to humanize execution and reduce negative consequences during their execution, as well as strengthen the legislative, organizational and legal framework for the protection of human rights, the implementation of international human rights standards into national legislation and other important norms human life activities that have been accepted for implementation by the Republic of Uzbekistan as a subject of the above-mentioned and other international treaties.

It is important to note that "Standard minimum rules for the treatment of prisoners" of UN 1955 are generally recognized minimum standards for the detention of prisoners and have great importance and influence on the improvement of legislation, criminal law policy and the practice of penitentiary institutions around the world.

The revised text of these standard minimum rules of December 17, 2015 at the 70th session of the UN General Assembly № A/RES/70/175 was unanimously adopted in the form of a resolution. These Rules became known as the "Nelson Mandela rules" as a sign of respect for his memory after the death of the famous statesman, the President of South Africa, who outlined these rules based on the experience of spending a long part of his life in prison.

It is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that, following the visit to Uzbekistan of the Special Rapporteur of the UN Human Rights Council, the topic "Promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms in the fight against terrorism" recommendations were made to bring the legislation of the Republic of Uzbekistan into line with the minimum standard rules for the treatment of prisoners (Nelson Mandela rules), in order to improve the conditions of detention of convicts in penal institutions, to ensure the rights to freedom of religion, which formed the basis of the “Road maps”, developed in accordance with the National Action Plan of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

In order to ensure the fulfillment of these tasks, the conditions of detention of convicts in penal institutions of the Republic of Uzbekistan are considered on the basis of the requirements of the standard minimum rules for the treatment of prisoners (Mandela rules), which are gradually being implemented in accordance with these rules.

On the basis of international standards of the rights and duties of convicts, taking into account the best practices of foreign countries, the system of execution of punishments is being radically improved, the problems that have accumulated over the years are being solved.

In the new version of the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan the right to life is an inalienable right of every person and is protected by law. The most serious crime is an attempt on a person's life. The death penalty is prohibited in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Essence is that no one can be intentionally deprived of life. This norm is in line with the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, as well as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. The human right to life is recognized as a natural and inviolable right arising from the moment of his birth, and belongs to a person regardless of the existence of statehood and laws.

In recent years, as part of the work to bring national legislation into line with international standards, for the first time the right to be elected was granted to convicts, except for persons who committed serious and especially serious crimes (Part 6 of Article 128 of the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan). The number of convicts held in institutions of general, strict, special, prison and educational regime has doubled, for correspondence, receiving visits, parcels, transfers and parcels, conducting telephone conversations.

In addition, those sentenced to imprisonment are guaranteed psychological assistance and non-application of disciplinary measures for violations committed at the time of mental disorder, and the right to a pension is established for those serving sentences in penal colonies.

Law of the Republic of Uzbekistan June 30, 2020 introduced a new norm into the Penal Enforcement Code defining the procedure for the application of incentive measures for persons serving sentences, expanded measures aimed at ensuring the personal safety of convicts while serving their sentences.

At the request of the convicts, long-term visits can be replaced by short-term visits or remote video calls or telephone conversations, and short-term visits are replaced by remote video calls or telephone conversations. Persons serving sentences from low-income families are employed in high-paying jobs.

In the process of ongoing reforms, special attention was paid to creating decent conditions for convicts, for this purpose, the pre-trial detention facility -64/1, which had a negative character and was popularly nicknamed "Tashturma", was closed in Tashkent. Instead, a new pre-trial detention facility №1 has been built and is functioning in  Zangiata district of the Tashkent region, fully meeting international standards. Similarly, the institution "Jaslyk" in Karakalpakstan was abolished, and the convicts held in it were transferred to other colonies of the republic.

In recent years, there has been a tendency in our country to use alternative, non-custodial measures, which has reduced the number of convicts sent to penal institutions. This situation has made it possible over the past four years to reduce three penal colonies of the general regime, one each in Navoi, Kashkadarya and Tashkent regions.

In the Republic, the legislative, executive, and departmental authorities constantly monitor compliance with the rule of law and ensure the rights and legitimate interests of persons serving sentences in places of deprivation of liberty.

Thus, with the introduction of the post of Commissioner of the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan for Human Rights (Ombudsman) He was granted the right to freely visit penal institutions. The Ombudsman and the Prosecutor have separate mailboxes designed for applications and complaints from these persons. The Prosecutor's Office and the Ombudsman regularly examine the observance of laws in penal institutions. The management of the Department for the Execution of Punishment constantly carries out field visits to places of deprivation of liberty in order to study the complaints and statements of convicts and make an appropriate decision and its immediate execution.

It should be added that, according to the recommendations of the UN charter bodies and treaty committees, the national preventive mechanism is being improved on the basis of the "Ombudsman Plus" model. The Ombudsman, and the Children's Ombudsman, the National Center for Human Rights and the Business Ombudsman have also been given the authority to monitor penal institutions.

As a result of the ongoing reforms, completely new priorities of the State penal enforcement policy have been developed and put into practice, providing for the following main aspects.

In particular, the Penal Enforcement Code has been supplemented with a new Article 102 "Procedure for the application of incentive measures", which abolished restrictions on visits of juvenile convicts with their parents or persons replacing them; convicted pregnant women with children are granted additional rights to long visits with minor children lasting up to five days - four times a year as well as long - term visits with the possibility of living outside the territory of the institution, the application of incentive measures to convicts - at least twice a year; if there is a threat to the safety of a person sentenced to imprisonment, it is established that he can apply, verbally or in writing, to any employee of the institution for the execution of punishment in order to ensure the declared safety, while the requirement is defined – upon receipt of such a statement about the need for immediate action, measures should be taken immediately to ensure his safety. An important requirement is also to prevent the unjustified use of rudeness, physical force and special means by employees and military personnel during the search of convicts; timely and appropriate conduct of long and short-term visits, telephone conversations, remote video communication, short-term remote video communication or telephone conversation.

It should be noted that such measures of encouragement for convicts are also enshrined in the penal codes of Spain, Turkiye, Japan and some other countries.

In accordance with the norms of the Penal Enforcement Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan, penitentiary institutions provide measures to protect the health of convicts, ensure their education, free use of libraries and other authorized sources of information (radio, television, movies and video films, etc.).

The "Import model" of prison management in Norway with a developed penal enforcement system is of interest. To implement this model, work is underway to establish a system of providing services (education, library use, health care) in places of detention.

It is also necessary to mention the Law of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated December 7, 2021, which, in order to humanize minors in the Penal Enforcement Code, provides for a norm defining the placement of persons in educational colonies not from the age of 13, but from 14. This has become one of the important steps towards reliable protection of the rights and legitimate interests of minors in the process of criminal and judicial proceedings in our country.

In order to further deepen the large-scale reforms being implemented in the system of Ministry of Internal Affairs, decree of March 26 and Resolution of April 2, 2021, the Main Directorate for the Execution of Punishment was transformed into the Department for the Execution of Punishment under the Ministry of Internal Affairs, it defines the legal basis for the department's activities to ensure the order of serving punishment by digitalizing the penal enforcement system, which will eliminate errors related to the human factor.

In addition, the law of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated February 15, 2023 "On State pension provision for citizens" provides that any work performed by persons sentenced to imprisonment while serving their sentence in penal institutions may be envisaged that the convicted person will be included in the work record in case of tax payment. This procedure is now defined in Article 96 of the Penal Enforcement Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan in a new edition, which has been renamed as "Payment of social tax and pension provision for convicts." Its first part defines "The expenses of institutions for the execution of punishment for the payment of labor sentenced to imprisonment that are subject to social tax", along with this, convicts have the right to transfer funds and use other services provided to convicts.

An important legislative decision is the prohibition of the use of a punishment measure with the use of a "straitjacket". This provision is based on Article 26 of the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan, which states: "No one may be subjected to torture, violence, or other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment" directly acts to prevent the use of torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment in penal institutions.

As a result of the ongoing reforms in the system of state penal enforcement policy, it is stipulated that common living quarters for persons with disabilities of groups I and II sentenced to imprisonment should be equipped with special means and devices; it is allowed to watch films, television and radio broadcasts, except for the time allotted for night rest; criteria for treatment are defined convicts.

In addition, it is important to eliminate corruption factors in assessing the behavior of convicts by including the length of service in the institution in the total length of service for their further retirement and, most importantly, by establishing strict criteria that determine the way to correct convicts.

The above allows us to conclude that the reforms carried out in this area are yielding positive results. In particular, recently the offenses of convicts in places of deprivation of liberty and after their release have been reduced; to a greater extent, the conditions of serving a sentence in the form of imprisonment comply with international standards, the incentive mechanisms applied to convicts serving sentences and those who have embarked on the path of correction are being improved, they ensure the protection of the rights, freedoms and legitimate interests of convicts, allowing them not to violate their interests; Public groups and citizens' self-government bodies are actively involved in the educational process of correcting convicts; offenses by law enforcement agencies have significantly decreased.

Mirzayusup Rustambayev,

Head of the University of Public Safety of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Doctor of Law, Professor

The text of the article is in Uzbek!

Development of the “Central Asia Plus” Formats

In recent years, Central Asia has increasingly acted as a unified region in international relations. Alongside bilateral ties, “Central Asia Plus” formats have been developing, allowing the countries to coordinate their shared interests and discuss trade, investment, industrial cooperation, transportation, energy, and security with external partners.

Existing formats include “Central Asia–European Union,” “Central Asia–Russia,” the C5+1 platform with the United States, as well as dialogue mechanisms with China, Japan, South Korea, and other partners. These mechanisms do not replace bilateral cooperation but complement it with a regional agenda.

Central Asia’s Multivector Cooperation

The first “Central Asia–European Union” summit, held in Samarkand in April 2025, focused on developing a strategic partnership between the two regions. Particular attention was paid to investment, technological modernization, green energy, critical minerals, transportation, and logistics.

Uzbekistan proposed establishing an investment platform to advance regional projects and developing coordinated conditions for expanding the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor. It also proposed holding a meeting of the transport ministers of the countries located along the route.

The second “Central Asia–Russia” summit, held in October 2025, focused on expanding trade, industrial cooperation, and collaboration in energy and transportation.

Uzbekistan proposed holding annual summits, establishing a coordination council at the deputy prime minister level, and creating an integrated transportation and logistics framework combining national road, rail, and air connectivity programs. Particular attention was also paid to developing the North–South Corridor and resilient production chains.

Thus, the “Central Asia Plus” formats enable the region to develop cooperation in several areas simultaneously. Their purpose is not to choose a single partner or route, but to expand economic ties and strengthen the region’s resilience to external changes.

Establishing a New C5+1 Format

The “Central Asia + Azerbaijan” format differs from other platforms because Azerbaijan is directly connected to the region through the Caspian Sea and is a key component of transportation routes leading toward the South Caucasus, Türkiye, and Europe.

For Central Asia, Azerbaijan is an important transit, investment, and industrial partner. For Azerbaijan, the Central Asian countries represent a growing market and a source of cargo flows for its port, railway, and logistics infrastructure. The new format therefore has not only political significance but also a specific economic dimension.

At the seventh Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia, held in Tashkent on November 16, 2025, a decision was made to grant Azerbaijan full participation. This became the first meeting of regional leaders in the expanded format.

President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed gradually transforming the consultative dialogue into a strategic “Central Asian Community” format. Initial steps included strengthening the institutional framework of the meetings, establishing a rotating secretariat, and elevating the status of national coordinators to special representatives of the presidents.

In trade and economic cooperation, Uzbekistan proposed developing a Comprehensive Regional Program for Trade and Economic Cooperation through 2035. The document is expected to address the removal of administrative barriers, simplification of customs and tax procedures, joint use of industrial and free economic zones, and other measures to increase intraregional trade.

Initiatives were also proposed to establish a common investment space and develop e-commerce. These measures include coordinating basic approaches to investor protection, creating regional digital marketplaces, and developing reliable digital payment systems.

Particular attention was paid to transportation and energy infrastructure. Uzbekistan proposed establishing an Infrastructure Development Council at the deputy prime minister level. Priorities included the construction and modernization of roads, railways, border checkpoints, energy networks, green corridors, and digital infrastructure.

Transportation initiatives covered the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, the Trans-Afghan route, and the Trans-Caspian transportation routes connecting Central Asia with the markets of the Caucasus, Türkiye, and Europe.

In 2026, the meeting is expected to continue under Turkmenistan’s chairmanship in the new “Central Asia and Azerbaijan” format.

Economic Foundation of Cooperation

The expansion of the regional format is taking place against the backdrop of growing trade and investment ties between Uzbekistan and the Central Asian countries.

In 2025, Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with the countries of the region reached $8.3 billion. Exports totaled approximately $3.2 billion, while imports amounted to $5.1 billion. Kazakhstan remained Uzbekistan’s largest regional trading partner, accounting for 60.2% of its trade with Central Asian countries. Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan each accounted for 14.5%, while Tajikistan accounted for 11%.

As of June 2026, Uzbekistan was home to 2,384 enterprises with capital from Central Asian countries. These included 1,283 enterprises with Kazakh capital, 442 with Tajik capital, 362 with Kyrgyz capital, and 297 with Turkmen capital.

The total volume of direct investment and loans attracted from the countries of the region in 2017–2025 amounted to $2.5 billion. In 2025 alone, this figure reached $1.3 billion.

At the same time, the potential of intraregional trade has not been fully utilized. According to calculations by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, replacing some goods imported from third countries with intraregional supplies could increase trade within Central Asia by $11.4 billion, more than doubling its current volume. Unlocking this potential requires reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, improving information exchange among businesses, and developing regional production chains.

Uzbekistan’s economic relations with Azerbaijan are also strengthening. Between 2017 and 2025, bilateral trade increased 9.5-fold, from $32.5 million to $307.3 million. Uzbekistan’s exports reached $227.3 million, while imports from Azerbaijan amounted to $80 million.

Uzbekistan’s exports mainly consist of manufactured goods, machinery and transportation equipment, food products, beverages, finished goods, and services. Imports are dominated by food and manufactured goods, machinery, transportation equipment, and chemical products.

Uzbekistan is home to 460 enterprises with Azerbaijani capital. Their number has increased 6.5-fold since 2017. In 2025, Azerbaijani investment in Uzbekistan totaled $173.7 million, bringing cumulative investment to $318.6 million.

An additional instrument was created in 2023 with the establishment of the Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Investment Company, which has authorized capital of $500 million and can finance projects in Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and third countries.

Cooperation is also developing in the automotive industry, textiles, construction, agriculture, and other sectors.

The Middle Corridor and Azerbaijan

Expanding trade and industrial cooperation requires reliable transportation infrastructure. For Uzbekistan, which has no direct access to the sea, developing alternative routes is essential to strengthening the resilience of foreign trade.

The Middle Corridor connects China and Central Asia with the South Caucasus, Türkiye, and Europe. Cargo from Uzbekistan can be transported through Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan to Caspian ports, shipped by sea to Azerbaijan, and then delivered to European markets through Georgia and Türkiye or across the Black Sea.

Azerbaijan occupies a central position in the western section of the route. Its transportation infrastructure includes the Alat International Sea Trade Port, the Caspian merchant fleet, and the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway.

The capacity of the Alat Port is expected to increase from 15 million to 25 million metric tons, while the capacity of the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway has been expanded to 5 million metric tons. A unified digital platform is also being developed to simplify transportation operations and trade between Caspian ports.

According to the World Bank, if the necessary infrastructure and organizational reforms are implemented, freight traffic along the Middle Corridor could triple by 2030, while delivery times could be reduced by half.

During the first nine months of 2025, transit freight between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan exceeded 1 million metric tons. This indicates growing prospects for using Azerbaijan’s transportation infrastructure as a transit route for Uzbek cargo.

The opening of the Zangezur Corridor is also expected to create additional opportunities for all Central Asian countries.

Opportunities for Uzbekistan and Central Asia

For Uzbekistan, the Middle Corridor provides an additional route to the markets of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye, and the European Union. This makes it possible to diversify transportation routes and reduce foreign trade dependence on a limited number of corridors.

Delivery times and predictability are especially important. They directly affect the competitiveness of textiles, fruits and vegetables, electrical equipment, automobiles, and other high-value-added products. Coordinating rail and maritime transportation schedules, introducing digital documentation, and reducing border-crossing times could lower exporters’ costs.

The corridor’s development will also create demand for dry ports, multimodal terminals, warehouses and cold-storage facilities, repair enterprises, and insurance, financial, and digital services. Transportation can therefore be viewed not only as a means of delivering goods but also as a separate area of investment and industrial development.

Additional opportunities are associated with the construction of the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Its integration with the Middle Corridor would establish a shorter and more resilient transportation link between China, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe.

For Central Asia as a whole, developing the route would make it possible to consolidate cargo flows, harmonize transportation procedures, and increase the region’s attractiveness to international investors. A larger and more stable cargo base would support regular train and vessel services, reduce per-unit costs, and expand the geographic reach of shipments.

The Middle Corridor is not viewed as a replacement for northern or southern routes. Its main purpose is to expand available options, strengthen logistics resilience, and create additional connections to external markets.

The Importance of Industrial Cooperation

Transportation cooperation will have a long-term impact if it is linked to the development of manufacturing. Growth in transit alone will not ensure the full realization of the new format’s economic potential.

Uzbekistan, other Central Asian countries, and Azerbaijan could establish joint production chains in the automotive industry, textiles, agricultural processing, electrical engineering, construction materials, chemicals, and machinery manufacturing.

An analysis by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms shows that regional enterprises could supply one another with raw materials, components, and finished products, reducing their dependence on imports from third countries.

One promising area is the establishment of joint industrial zones and logistics centers along the Middle Corridor. The idea of creating “mirror” special economic zones in Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan has not yet reached the implementation stage, but it offers significant development potential.

At the same time, growing bilateral trade, the work of the joint investment company, and expanding transportation links are creating conditions for revisiting this initiative.

Such zones could specialize in product assembly and processing, consolidation of export shipments, warehousing operations, and transportation services. Establishing interconnected production facilities in Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan would combine Central Asia’s industrial potential with the transportation infrastructure of the South Caucasus.

Conclusion

The first meeting in the expanded format established a political and institutional foundation for cooperation between Central Asia and Azerbaijan. The next meeting, under Turkmenistan’s chairmanship, could focus on the practical development of the Middle Corridor and the expansion of industrial cooperation.

In transportation, the main priorities include coordinating tariffs and procedures, developing regular rail and maritime services, modernizing port and border infrastructure, digitizing documentation, and exploring opportunities to connect the Middle Corridor with the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway.

In industry, priorities could include establishing joint production chains, developing industrial zones, implementing projects through the Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Investment Company, and attracting international financial institutions to infrastructure and manufacturing projects.

For Uzbekistan, the “Central Asia + Azerbaijan” format creates opportunities to expand exports, diversify transportation routes, and attract investment in manufacturing and logistics. For other Central Asian countries, it provides an additional route to Western markets.

The format’s future significance will depend on how consistently the participating countries develop the Middle Corridor and complement the transportation agenda with industrial and investment cooperation. The upcoming meeting could provide practical momentum for implementing the most ambitious and mutually beneficial projects.

Edvard Romanov,

Center for Economic Research and Reforms

During a telephone conversation between President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev and President of the European Council António Costa on January 23, topical issues on the bilateral and regional agenda were discussed.

The President of Uzbekistan sincerely congratulated António Costa on his election as the head of the European Council and wished him great success.

It was noted with deep satisfaction that the Uzbek-European multifaceted cooperation has reached the highest level in recent years and continues to develop dynamically in all priority dimensions.

Active contacts and exchanges at different levels have been carried out. In 2024, Uzbekistan's trade turnover with the EU countries exceeded 6 billion euros, the portfolio of projects with European companies reached 30 billion euros.

Last year, an agreement on strategic partnership in the field of critical mineral resources was signed. There is fruitful cooperation in transportation and digital interconnectivity, green economy, culture and other areas.

Confidence was expressed in the early signing of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the European Union, which will give a serious impetus to the development of the entire range of relations.

The Uzbek leader and the head of the European Council also exchanged views on the international agenda and regional cooperation. Joint plans to prepare and hold the first “Central Asia-EU” summit in the city of Samarkand in April this year were discussed.

Starting January 1, 2026, Value-Added Tax will be exempted for Farmers and Dehkan producers

С 1

Almost half of the population of the Republic of Uzbekistan lives in rural areas. Millions of hardworking individuals in these communities play a crucial role in ensuring the country’s food security and establishing a solid foundation for the export of agricultural products. The nation’s development cannot be limited solely to urban centers; it is equally important to ensure that life in rural and peripheral regions is comfortable and sustainable.

The care for rural residents and the stimulation of their activities merit special attention from both the state and society. Governmental support measures have become pivotal in strengthening the agricultural sector.

However, the agricultural industry still faces significant challenges, including high tax burdens and limited access to financing, which contribute to the expansion of the informal economy. According to various estimates, up to half of agricultural producers operate outside the legal framework, resulting in reduced profitability and hindering sectoral development. Without genuine incentives to transition towards a formal economy, the agrarian sector’s capacity for investment and modernization will remain constrained.

In this context, the introduction of a zero rate of Value Added Tax (VAT) starting January 1, 2026, for farmers and dehkan producers selling their own products—including vegetables, fruits, meat, milk, eggs, and other food items—is a timely and significant measure. Producers of grain and cotton are excluded from this provision, as these sectors are regulated through state-managed clusters.

The existing practice of VAT refunds on expenses related to the production of seeds, fertilizers, fuel, logistics, electricity, and other operational costs will remain in place. As a result, farmers are expected to save up to 700 billion Uzbek soms annually.

The zero VAT rate will reduce the tax burden, increase farmers’ net income, and enable the allocation of additional funds toward modernization.

According to projections, farm profitability is expected to rise from 5–7 percent to approximately 15 percent. This measure will also facilitate more accurate planning of subsidies and incentives.

Another positive impact will be the growth of domestic processing industries. When products are processed locally, demand for investment in processing facilities and export logistics chains increases, leading to job creation and improved working conditions.

The reorientation of agriculture towards food crops has been one of the strategic priorities pursued in recent years.
Areas allocated to cotton and grain cultivation are being reduced, while orchards, vineyards, and vegetable crops are being developed instead. Approximately 1,500 food production projects have already been implemented, with a total investment of around one billion dollars.

The introduction of a zero VAT rate will further stimulate processing and export activities, strengthening the potential of the agro-food sector and enhancing the competitiveness and attractiveness of its products on the international market.

For farmers and dehkans, this presents an opportunity to retain a significant portion of their income. The savings can be directed towards farm development, improving working and living conditions, and modernizing production processes. Rural areas will benefit from job creation, technology influx, higher product quality, and a favorable environment for sustainable development.

For the state, this translates into a reduction of the shadow economy, increased transparency in reporting, and more accurate planning of support measures, tax incentives, and development programs. For society at large, it means access to higher quality and more affordable food products, enhanced resilience of the rural economy, and the strengthening of domestic agro-industrial value chains.

Nadira RASHIDOVA,

Member of the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis.