The Termez Dialogue: Afghanistan as a Connecting Bridge Between Central and South Asia

📅 31.05.2026

For decades, Afghanistan was perceived primarily as a source of instability, geopolitical rivalry and security threats. In recent years, however, the regional agenda surrounding Afghanistan has gradually been shifting. Increasingly, expert and diplomatic circles in the Central Asian states are discussing not only the question of security but also Afghanistan’s potential as a transport, energy and trade corridor capable of linking Central and South Asia.

In this context, the «Termez Dialogue»^[1] acquires particular significance as a platform symbolizing the transition from a policy of isolation to a pragmatic model of regional interaction. For Uzbekistan and its neighbors, the issue is no longer merely the stabilization of Afghanistan, but the formation of a new geoeconomic architecture for Eurasia.

From a Geopolitical Buffer to a Geoeconomic Bridge

Historically, Afghanistan lay at the crossroads of major trade routes connecting the East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, however, the country became a space of geopolitical confrontation among world powers rather than a territory of cooperation.

Today the situation is gradually changing under the influence of several factors at once. Firstly, global logistics is undergoing a profound transformation. Geopolitical tension, sanctions restrictions and crises affecting traditional transport routes are forcing states to seek new paths for trade and transit. Secondly, the Central Asian states are increasingly striving to diversify their foreign economic ties and reduce their dependence on a limited number of transport directions.

 

Against this backdrop, Afghanistan is acquiring new significance as the shortest overland route capable of providing the Central Asian states with access to the ports of the Indian Ocean through the territory of Pakistan.        Whereas the Afghan factor was once viewed primarily through the lens of threats, today growing attention is being paid to its transit potential.

Of particular importance in this regard is the project of the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor^[2]. Initially, the principal route was considered to be Termez – Mazar-i-Sharif – Kabul – Peshawar. However, by 2025 the states of the region moved^[3] to elaborating a new direction: Termez – Naibabad – Maidan Shahr – Logar – Kharlachi. This route implies access to the Pakistani railway network through the Kharlachi border crossing and is regarded as more realistic in terms of security, cost, and implementation timelines.

The realization of this project could substantially reshape^[4] the transport geography of the region. For the Central Asian states, this would mean: a reduction in cargo delivery times; a decrease in transport costs; access to the new markets of South Asia; an expansion of export opportunities; a strengthening of the region’s transit potential.

Especially important is the fact that this concerns access to the South Asian market, with a population of nearly two billion people. For the export-oriented economies of Central Asia, this opens up fundamentally new prospects.

Equally important are the energy projects passing through Afghanistan. Among them are CASA-1000 and the TAPI gas pipeline, both intended to facilitate electricity and natural gas supplies between Central and South Asia.

These processes reflect a broader transformation of regional politics: states increasingly view Afghanistan not only as a source of risk but also as an important element of the transport architecture of Eurasia. Priority is shifting more and more from politically symbolic objectives toward the pragmatic logic of transit, connectivity, and economic efficiency.

Termez — the Southern Gateway of Central Asia

A special role in shaping the new regional interaction is played by Termez - the southernmost city of Uzbekistan, which is gradually turning into an important logistical, diplomatic, and humanitarian center. Its significance is reinforced by its unique geographical position: the city lies in the immediate proximity of the Afghan border, connected to it by a bridge across the Amudarya river, across which hundreds of cargo trucks and substantial flows of humanitarian aid and commercial goods pass daily^[5].

In logistical terms, Termez relies on developed infrastructure, including an international transport and logistics hub and a rail connection with the Afghan city of Hairatan, through which millions of tons of cargo are transshipped each year. This corridor is considered one of the most stable and manageable routes of regional trade with Afghanistan.

An additional dimension of Termez’s role is formed by its humanitarian component: the city operates^[6] as a platform for coordinating international assistance to Afghanistan, where deliveries of food, medicine, and basic goods are regularly carried out with the participation of international organizations. In 2025, the hub was incorporated into the UNHCR Global Supply Network, through which humanitarian aid shipments worth more than $500 million are distributed annually^[7].

At the same time, through Termez, Uzbekistan is actively promoting the concept of regional connectivity, in which Afghanistan is viewed not as a peripheral zone of instability but as a transit bridge capable of linking the markets of Central and South Asia. In this context, Termez is becoming not merely a border town, but an infrastructural and politico-economic node of a new regional architecture founded on pragmatism, trade interdependence, and phased integration.

In this context, Uzbekistan has attempted to institutionalize this Forum. Thus, in 2025 the international forum “Termez Dialogue” was held in Termez, devoted to questions of peace, stability, and economic interaction with Afghanistan. It was attended by representatives of the Central and South Asian states, as well as international organizations, including UN structures. The forum became one of the first attempts to institutionalize the discussion of Afghanistan precisely as an economic partner of the region.

Earlier, in 2021, Uzbekistan initiated^[8] the international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities,” held in Tashkent. One of the central themes of the event was the role of Afghanistan as a transit link between the two macro-regions. The conference was attended by representatives of more than 40 states and international organizations, which underscored the global interest in the Uzbek initiative.

The Termez Dialogue as a New Model of Regionalism

Under present-day conditions, the “Termez Dialogue” acquires significance not only as a diplomatic platform but also as a symbol of a new model of regional interaction.

What is at issue is the formation of an approach in which the states of the region strive to build mechanisms of cooperation independently, proceeding above all from common economic interests and mutual infrastructural interdependence.

In this sense, Afghanistan is gradually becoming not an object of external administration but a potential participant in a new system of regional connectivity.

For Central Asia, the development of the southern direction means an expansion of strategic autonomy, a diversification of foreign economic routes, and a strengthening of its own agency in international relations.

It is precisely for this reason that the future of Afghanistan is increasingly viewed not only as a question of security but also as a question of regional integration, logistics and geoeconomics.

Conclusion

Today Afghanistan stands at a historical crossroads. The country may either remain a space of chronic instability or gradually be transformed into a vital transport and economic bridge between Central and South Asia.

To a large extent, the outcome will depend on the ability of the regional states to construct a long-term strategy of cooperation founded not only on questions of security but also on the development of infrastructure, trade, and mutual economic interest.

In this process, Termez is already becoming one of the key centers of the new Eurasian interaction - a space in which the transition from geopolitical rivalry to geoeconomic partnership is taking shape.

Aziza Mukhammedova

Research Fellow

Center for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies at the

Institute for Advanced International Studies

 

[1]  https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/21/central-asian-countries-push-for-regional-development-at-termez-dialogue

[2] https://pakistan.mfa.uz/ru/news/trans-afghan-corridor-a-new-bridge-connecting-central-asia-with-the-world-1

[3] https://kun.uz/en/news/2025/07/18/uzbekistan-afghanistan-and-pakistan-agree-to-develop-new-railway-corridor

[4] https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/uzbekistan-and-the-new-realities-of-trans-afghan-trade/

[5] https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-offers-to-act-as-hub-for-afghanistan-aid

[6] https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/uzbekistan-steps-support-neighbor-afghanistan-critical-humanitarian-juncture

[7] https://iica.uz/ru/news/2025/02/13/termiz-logistik-habi-bmtning-global-yetkazib-berish-tarmogiga-qoshildi

[8] https://www.uzembassy.uk/news/990

Uzbekistan and Belgium: Toward a New Stage of Strategic Partnership with the European Union

📅 29.10.2025

In October, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, will pay a state visit to the Kingdom of Belgium, during which important decisions are expected to be made that will mark a qualitatively new stage in relations between Uzbekistan and the European Union. In particular, the visit will feature the signing of the Agreement on Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been actively shaping a new framework of engagement with Europe – a key pillar of stability amid current geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty. The ties between Uzbekistan and European countries continue to grow, and the areas of cooperation are diversifying, supported by the ongoing reforms in Uzbekistan.

Building a New Chapter in Relations

After gaining independence, Uzbekistan’s relations with the European Union developed dynamically. A Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of Uzbekistan and the European Commission was signed in 1992, followed by the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1994. The foundation of cooperation was laid by the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) signed in June 1996 and entering into force in 1999. However, at a certain stage, cooperation faced difficulties due to the insufficient pace of democratic reforms in Uzbekistan.

With the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as President, the situation changed dramatically. As early as 2017, during his visit to Tashkent, Stefano Manservisi, Director-General for International Cooperation and Development of the European Commission, stated that “the EU regards Uzbekistan as a strategic partner.” The sweeping democratic and economic reforms launched in Uzbekistan helped resolve within a short period many issues that had long remained unsolved. Forced labor was completely eradicated, and reforms in the cotton sector enabled the country to abandon raw cotton exports altogether.

As reforms advanced, the legal and institutional framework of relations with Europe expanded rapidly. While previously Uzbekistan and the EU granted each other most-favored-nation treatment under the PCA, in April 2021 the EU granted Uzbekistan GSP+ beneficiary status, and in 2022 the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) was initialed.

Along with internal transformation, Uzbekistan’s foreign policy architecture also changed. Priority was given to closer cooperation with neighboring Central Asian states, as well as the active expansion of ties with European countries – a vector that has strengthened steadily in recent years.

Just in the past year, Uzbekistan established strategic partnership relations with France, Italy, and Slovakia, while discussions on expanding strategic cooperation with Hungary continued. President Mirziyoyev also visited Slovenia, and Italy’s Prime Minister and Bulgaria’s President visited Uzbekistan.

A milestone in strengthening relations between Uzbekistan and Europe, and between Europe and Central Asia as a whole – was the first EU–Central Asia Summit, held in Samarkand in April 2025 under the chairmanship of Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Uzbekistan presented a broad range of initiatives to create a new model of regional cooperation between Central Asia and Europe, including: a multilateral agreement on investment protection and promotion; the launch of a Central Asia–EU Joint Chamber of Commerce; the adoption of a regional support program for SMEs and women’s entrepreneurship; the establishment of an investment platform to promote regional projects in green energy, innovation, transport, infrastructure, and agriculture.

The Samarkand Summit was highly productive. A Joint Declaration was adopted, establishing a strategic partnership between the two regions in trade, transport, energy, digital connectivity, and water management. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU had prepared a €12 billion investment package for Central Asia under the Global Gateway initiative.

The Trajectory of Economic Cooperation

Uzbekistan’s deep democratic transformations have significantly improved relations with European countries. Economic reforms have enhanced the competitiveness of Uzbekistan’s economy, stimulating investor confidence and growing interest from European businesses.

The results are impressive. Over the past 8 years, Uzbekistan’s GDP has doubled, reaching $115 billion in 2024. Since 2017, investment in fixed capital has totaled $240 billion, of which foreign investment exceeded $130 billion. The country’s foreign exchange reserves surpassed $48 billion for the first time in history. Structurally, the share of industry in the economy increased from 20% to 26%, and services from 44% to 47%. Labor productivity (GDP per employed person) rose by 45%.

As a result, opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation between Uzbek and European businesses have expanded. Between 2017 and 2024, Uzbekistan’s trade with the EU increased 2.4 times to $6.4 billion; exports grew 3.6 times to $1.7 billion, and imports 2.2 times to $4.7 billion. In 2024, the EU’s share in Uzbekistan’s total trade turnover was 9.7%, in exports 6.3%, and in imports 12%. The EU ranked third among Uzbekistan’s trade partners, after China and Russia.

The EU’s share in Uzbekistan’s total exports increased from 3.8% to 6.3% over the same period. This growth was driven by Uzbekistan’s accession to the GSP+ preferential trade system, granting duty-free access to the EU market across roughly 6,200 tariff lines. The share of Uzbekistan’s exports benefiting from GSP+ reached 59%, with a preference utilization rate of 84%, indicating efficient use of trade benefits.

In 2024, Uzbekistan’s exports to the EU were dominated by chemical products (52.1%), as well as textiles, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, minerals, and food products. Among EU members, France accounted for 47.2% of exports, Lithuania for 10%, and Latvia for 6.9%.

Uzbekistan’s imports from the EU significantly exceeded exports – a reflection of the ongoing technological modernization of the national economy. Around 16% of Uzbekistan’s total imports of machinery, equipment, and transport vehicles come from EU countries.

Investment cooperation is also expanding rapidly. In 2024, foreign investments and loans from EU countries and their financial institutions increased by 77%, reaching $4.1 billion (compared to $2.3 billion in 2023). The most active investors were Germany ($1.37 billion), the Netherlands ($1.05 billion), Cyprus ($858.9 million), the Czech Republic ($137.8 million), Italy ($99.8 million), and Sweden ($97.5 million). Today, around 1,000 enterprises with EU capital operate in Uzbekistan, with a total project portfolio of €30 billion.

A special role in recent years belongs to the EBRD, of which Uzbekistan has become one of the largest beneficiaries. The Bank’s total investments in Uzbekistan’s economy exceeded €5 billion, including around €1 billion in 2024, primarily directed toward the private sector.

Reforms in Uzbekistan have become the key driver for unlocking the significant potential of trade and economic cooperation with the European Union.

Uzbekistan–Belgium

The upcoming visit will also focus on strengthening relations between Uzbekistan and Belgium. Diplomatic relations were established following the opening of the Embassy of Uzbekistan in Brussels in 1993. In 1996, the two countries signed an Agreement on avoidance of double taxation, and in 1998 – an Agreement on mutual protection and promotion of investments, which provide legal guarantees for investors in both states.

Business contacts have intensified in parallel with Uzbekistan’s reform agenda. The visits of 2019 and 2022 set the tone for cooperation in infrastructure, energy, and the digital economy. More important than the current trade volumes has been the recognition and support of Uzbekistan’s reforms by EU partners, laying the foundation for long-term engagement.

In 2024, bilateral trade amounted to $62.3 million, including $7.3 million in Uzbek exports and $55 million in imports. Investment cooperation is gaining momentum: several dozen companies with Belgian capital now operate in Uzbekistan, including wholly owned enterprises. New technologies are being localized, for example, Jaga Climate Designers is participating in a joint venture for heating and ventilation systems, and Picanol Group is localizing the assembly of high-tech textile machinery. Belgian brands Belcolade and Prefamac are exploring opportunities to launch chocolate production with subsequent localization.

Despite modest trade volumes, there is significant potential for expanding cooperation in several areas. Given Belgium’s leading role in pharmaceuticals and biomedical research and Uzbekistan’s growing pharmaceutical market, joint ventures or industrial clusters could be developed in this sector, involving companies such as UCB and Janssen Pharmaceutica.

There is also strong potential for joint fruit and vegetable processing projects in Uzbekistan, targeting exports to the EU via Belgian logistics hubs such as the Port of Antwerp and wholesale markets. Potential partners include Greenyard and Puratos. Direct seasonal exports of fresh fruits (e.g., grapes in autumn and winter), as well as dried vegetables, spices, and organic products, could also be expanded. In light industry, there is room to increase exports of ready-made knitwear and home textiles, provided European quality and safety standards are met. The market potential is evident – Belgium imported about $7.9 billion worth of clothing in 2024.

The main challenges remain logistics and standards. Belgium functions as a major EU maritime hub centered around Antwerp, while direct routes from Uzbekistan are still limited. The near-term priority should be pilot supply chains ensuring quality and traceability, the development of cold logistics, certification under EU technical and sanitary regulations, the use of Benelux consolidation hubs, and trade finance tools for SMEs. With the gradual development of new overland routes along the Middle Corridor, Uzbekistan will gain a stronger foothold in high value-added exports without higher costs or delivery delays.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan is entering a stage of deepened economic cooperation with the European Union. During the ongoing modernization and digital transformation of its economy, European investment, technology, education, and research experience can play a key role. At the same time, Uzbekistan seeks to expand exports of industrial goods as their quality improves.

Uzbekistan is also a rapidly growing market with a young and dynamic population, now reaching 38 million people – an 18% increase since 2017. Every year, around 700,000 economically active individuals enter the labor market, forming a substantial human resource base for the economy, including joint ventures.

As a result of poverty reduction policies, living standards and household incomes have risen significantly. Whereas a third of the population once lived below the poverty line, 7.5 million people have been lifted out of poverty, and the poverty rate declined to 8.9% in 2024, with plans to reduce it further to 6% this year. These policies not only address social challenges but also expand domestic demand, increasing the interest of European businesses in entering Uzbekistan’s market.

The further deepening of Uzbekistan’s economic engagement with the EU and Belgium is an objectively mutually beneficial process – one that will define the success of the upcoming state visit of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Belgium.

The agreements expected to be signed will help advance joint projects in sustainable energy and infrastructure, strengthen transport and technological connectivity between Central Asia and Europe, and position Europe as a key partner in Uzbekistan’s long-term growth and modernization trajectory.

 Obid Khakimov,  

Director of the Center for
Economic Research and Reforms

Public Diplomacy in Uzbek-Turkish Relations: The Factor of Trust and Cooperation

📅 28.01.2026

In the modern system of international relations, stable and long-term cooperation between states is based, above all, on political will and trust at the highest level. Relations between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Republic of Turkey have consistently developed based on an open, sincere, and trusting dialogue established between the heads of state. This political trust creates a solid foundation for public diplomacy, including deepening fraternal ties between the cities.

In recent years, high-level meetings, regular political dialogue, and strategic agreements between the presidents of Uzbekistan and Turkey have elevated relations between the two countries to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership. Mutual trust and political support from the heads of state have resulted in concrete and practical results in trade, economic, investment, cultural, humanitarian, and educational spheres.

From this perspective, public diplomacy is becoming an important component of Uzbek-Turkish relations. It strengthens official interstate agreements at the public level and deepens trust and mutual understanding between peoples. Particularly between two fraternal nations with shared historical roots, a common language, and spiritual values, public diplomacy is a natural and indispensable process.

In this context, the Uzbekistan-Turkey Friendship Society functions as an important institutional platform for the development of public diplomacy. Cultural events, scientific and educational conferences, youth and women’s initiatives organized by the society contribute to strengthening mutual trust and friendship between the two peoples. This activity promotes public support for priority areas established at the level of heads of state.

At the same time, fraternal relations between cities are one of the most effective and practical forms of public diplomacy. Fraternal relations established between the cities of Uzbekistan and Turkey strengthen political trust at the local level and create a favorable environment for economic and cultural cooperation. The Brother Cities Alliance and the Union of Municipalities of the Turkic World participate in this process as important international structures coordinating and systematically developing relations between cities. 

Brother cities cooperation, which has historical significance in Uzbek-Turkish relations, includes ties between the cities as Bukhara – Izmir, Bukhara – Malatya, Samarkand – Sakarya, Tashkent – Ankara, and Khiva – Bolu. Cultural and humanitarian projects, educational and tourism programs, as well as investment initiatives implemented within the framework of this cooperation serve to achieve the strategic goals set by the leaders of the two countries at the local level.

It should be noted that cooperation between cities has not only cultural or economic significance but also an important political content. Trust and cooperation established at the local level ensure the stability and continuity of interstate relations. This demonstrates the significant role of public diplomacy in strengthening the strategic partnership between Uzbekistan and Turkey.

In conclusion, public diplomacy in Uzbek-Turkish relations is an important factor that builds on, complements, and strengthens the trusting political dialogue between the heads of state. Within the framework of the priority areas identified by the heads of state, work carried out at the city level in cooperation with the Brother Cities Alliance and the Union of Municipalities of the Turkic World will contribute to the further strengthening of friendship, trust, and cooperation between the two fraternal peoples.

Zokir Abidov,

Chairman of the Brother Cities Alliance 

Uzbekistan–2030: Why the National Development Strategy Is Being Updated

📅 06.01.2026

Uzbekistan’s 2030 Strategy is the country’s principal framework for medium- and long-term development. It provides strategic direction for public policy, institutional reform, and socio-economic transformation, while embedding principles of continuity, predictability, and long-term planning at the core of state governance. Since its adoption, the strategy has served as a foundational reference point for the reform agenda, shaping what is often referred to as “New Uzbekistan.”

Over recent years, Uzbekistan has made tangible progress across a wide range of areas, including economic modernisation, public administration reform, judicial reform, the expansion of civic space, and the protection of human rights. These reforms have produced measurable results and have contributed to greater openness and institutional capacity. At the same time, the pace of change—both domestically and globally—has continued to accelerate.

Societal expectations are evolving, economic conditions are becoming more complex, technological change is reshaping governance models, and global geopolitical and economic dynamics are introducing new risks and opportunities. Against this backdrop, updating the Uzbekistan–2030 Strategy is a logical and necessary step to ensure that policy planning remains relevant, responsive, and effective.

At the heart of the revised strategy lies a fundamental principle articulated by the President of Uzbekistan: the state must serve the people, not the other way around. In its updated form, the strategy seeks to translate this principle into practical governance outcomes by reinforcing a development model that is results-oriented, accountable, and centred on human well-being.

Every policy decision and reform priority is assessed through the lens of its impact on citizens’ quality of life, social inclusion, and long-term prosperity. This marks a shift away from abstract targets toward a more outcome-driven approach to public policy.

A key element of the strategy’s refinement is a comprehensive review of progress achieved to date. This includes an honest assessment of remaining challenges and structural bottlenecks, as well as recalibrating performance indicators to enable more precise measurement and evaluation. Each strategic objective is linked to clearly designated responsible institutions, while required financial resources are explicitly identified. This strengthens institutional accountability and moves the strategy from a broad vision to an operational roadmap.

Another defining feature of the updated Uzbekistan–2030 Strategy is its emphasis on clarity and relevance for ordinary citizens. The strategy is being shaped so that people can readily understand how national reforms affect their daily lives—how they improve access to services, create economic opportunities, and enhance prospects for future generations. In this sense, the strategy is intended not as a set of slogans, but as a framework for tangible, lived improvements.

The revised strategy also reflects the need for adaptability. Performance benchmarks are being updated to align with new economic realities, social priorities, technological innovation, and international developments. This ensures that public policy remains flexible and able to respond to change, rather than being constrained by static assumptions.

Digitalisation plays a central role in this process. The monitoring and evaluation of strategy implementation are being fully digitised, enabling greater transparency, evidence-based decision-making, and enhanced public oversight. This approach strengthens trust in public institutions and supports more informed policy adjustments.

Equally important is policy coherence. All sectoral, regional, and thematic development plans are being aligned with the Uzbekistan–2030 Strategy to ensure consistency across government actions. This integrated approach reduces fragmentation and enhances the overall effectiveness of state policy.

Public participation is another core principle. The updated strategy is being developed through broad public consultation, incorporating input from citizens, civil society organisations, experts, and the wider public. This reflects the understanding that reforms are most sustainable and credible when they are shaped with society, rather than imposed upon it.

In conclusion, the ongoing refinement of the Uzbekistan–2030 Strategy represents a structured, transparent, and responsible effort to deepen reforms and adapt them to contemporary realities. Above all, it reaffirms a clear priority: national development is not an end in itself, but a means to improve people's lives and well-being. In this sense, Uzbekistan–2030 is being shaped as a genuinely people-centred roadmap for inclusive and sustainable progress.

 

Eldor Tulyakov,

Executive Director, Development Strategy Centre

Over the past 8 years, New Uzbekistan has absorbed over 113 billion dollars of foreign investments

📅 18.08.2025

On the eve of the 34th anniversary of our country's independence, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund has finalised the 2025 consultations in accordance with Article IV of the IMF Agreement. The main conclusion on the essence of the ongoing reforms is positive prospects for Uzbekistan's economic development against the backdrop of continued progress in the transition to a market economy. According to the published document, economic indicators remain strong, including sustainable growth rates, reduction of the consolidated budget deficit, current account deficit and sufficient level of international reserves.

Successful and effective implementation of structural reforms, according to the Fund's specialists, allows us to conclude that the prospects are favourable. Against the background of a high degree of uncertainty in global trade policy, the IMF baseline scenario predicts that real GDP growth will remain stably high in the coming years. Such trends are the result of economic openness, industrialisation, active investment policy and support for the formation of export potential of promising industries.

The set of reforms and effectively implemented decisions is consistent with available internal resources and reserves for long-term sustainable development of the country and regions. The course towards irreversible market transformations makes it possible to skilfully combine the instruments of targeted state support and opportunities for entrepreneurial initiative on the way to building a New Uzbekistan.

In recent years, as a result of openness and growing confidence in our country, there has been a progressive increase in capital investment. In 2017-2024, the total volume of foreign investment absorbed exceeded $113 billion. Foreign direct investment and loans account for more than 80 per cent of them. Activity in attracting finance is observed in the leading industries and the fuel and energy complex, which has a corresponding impact on the acceleration of industrialisation processes in almost all regions.

Increasing investment cooperation with China, Russia, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, the USA, the UK and other countries is becoming a source of attraction of advanced technological solutions and expertise, management methods, localisation of production and strengthening the export potential of promising industries and regions of Uzbekistan. Attracted resources are mainly invested in the technological re-equipment and modernisation of existing production facilities and the creation of new production facilities that did not exist before.

Over the past eight years, investment programmes have launched more than 96,000 projects worth about $100 billion, creating 1.8 million jobs. In 2024, compared to 2017, the value of investment projects put into operation increased almost eightfold, and the number of jobs grew 2.6 times.

We emphasise the factor of active involvement of our Head of State in this process. As a result of visits and top-level events, 366 investment agreements worth $75 billion have been reached since the beginning of this year. In particular, this year road maps have been approved for 222 investment projects worth about $45 billion.

Within the framework of the IV Tashkent International Investment Forum (June this year), agreements were reached on investments worth more than $30 billion (for the implementation of 144 joint projects). In April 2025, on the margins of the 5th International Industrial Exhibition "INNOPROM. Central Asia", held in Tashkent, within the framework of the 43 investment agreements reached, it is planned to attract an additional billion dollars to the industrial sector of the country.

In recent years, there has been an active practice of holding events to inform the international community about opportunities for the implementation of joint projects. Thus, this year, forums were held in 13 foreign countries as part of the Investors' Day of Uzbekistan, attended by representatives of 700 well-known foreign companies. More than 200 investment projects worth six billion dollars were presented to potential partners.

Among the important elements of Uzbekistan's modern industrial policy is localisation of production of high quality and competitive products, reduction of imports of finished goods and components. In accordance with the Localisation Programme, which included about 10 thousand projects, almost 300 trillion soums worth of products have been produced over the period 2020-2024. This led to import substitution in the amount of about $25 billion. The Localisation Programme allowed the creation of new production facilities for previously imported goods, contributed to changing the sectoral structure of industry and reducing dependence on external supplies by expanding the range of products and services.

THE NUMBER OF EXPORTERS IS GROWING

The formation of an export orientation has become one of the main conditions for success in implementing the plans outlined for Uzbekistan's industrialisation. Over 2017-2024, the total volume of exports exceeded $132 billion. It is noteworthy that the average annual growth rate of the country's exports over the period was 12-23 per cent. As a result of systematic and targeted support for exporters, the geography of exports of domestic products expanded by 55 states in 2024 and reached 186 countries over the past eight years. Last year, the number of exporting enterprises increased by 3,143 and their total number totalled 7,343.

Only due to the increase in the share of exports of higher value-added products in 2024, shipments to foreign markets increased by a billion dollars. Entering new promising markets, in turn, requires a significant improvement in the quality of manufactured products and their compliance with international standards. As part of the GSP+ programme, we implemented a set of organisational and technical measures to obtain Global G.A.P., Organic, OEKO-Tex, BSCI, CE marking certificates for our products and transition to ISO standards at more than five thousand enterprises. This made it possible last year alone to provide additional exports of 617 types of products worth $1.4 billion to the European Union.

Transition to more demanding standards and technological processes makes it possible to achieve the goals of producing and selling products of a completely different quality in new markets. Export supplies of goods to developed countries confirm the correctness of the chosen strategy, demonstrating its undeniable results. For example, due to the expansion of export geography and correct response to the conjuncture, the selling prices of Uzbekistan's fruit and vegetable products last year increased by an average of 14 per cent.

The industrial trend of economic development, having ensured a technological leap in a number of sectors, has had a significant impact on the evolution of the commodity nomenclature of exports. Quite recently, Uzbekistan was associated as a country with a monoculture of cotton, and its products were practically the sole leader of exports with absolute dominance of raw materials. In this regard, according to IMF experts, there is a decline in the share of cotton fibre exports from 0.2 per cent of GDP to zero from 2021 in the long term. Today Uzbekistan exports more and more high-tech products, and by 2024 its nomenclature has reached four thousand items.

For example, compared to 2017, exports of primary goods fell by 22 per cent last year, while the share of exports of finished goods increased 3.3 times, semi-finished goods - 4.4 times, and exports of services increased 2.9 times. At the same time, the transition to advanced processing of cotton contributed to the doubling of exports of garment and knitwear products to one billion dollars. This allowed our country to become the second supplier of textile products in the Russian market.

Domestic products are becoming a recognisable national brand, enjoying trust and popularity among foreign consumers. Last year, the goods of about 300 Uzbek enterprises received registration on the well-known electronic commercial platforms Alibaba, Wildberries and Ozon. As a result, sales of our companies reached $680 million.

At the end of the first half of 2025, the volume of exports grew by 33 per cent year-on-year and approached $17 billion. Since the beginning of the year, 1,557 domestic companies have been added to the exporters, accounting for $650 million in shipments.

The steady trend away from raw material exports towards finished high-tech products and services (tourism, transport, construction, IT and others) continues.

INVESTMENT DIALOGUE

It should be noted that our country is building and effectively operating an institutional environment to address strategically important issues of industrial development with a clear export orientation by attracting foreign capital. For this purpose, the relevant ministry and state agencies responsible for this complex of issues, as well as organisations promoting interaction between the state and the private sector have been established.

The Council of Foreign Investors under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan is an institutional platform for direct dialogue between the government and investors (including international financial institutions). The Council's work as an advisory and consultative body effectively promotes the attraction of foreign direct investment in priority sectors of the economy and the organization of quality business dialogue, taking into account international best practices.

The Council operates under the patronage of the President of Uzbekistan, who personally attends meetings of this body. In order to organise systematic work on attracting investments, the relevant decree of the leader of the country was adopted to implement the agreements reached at the last meeting of the Council. The document also implies ensuring the systematic implementation of initiatives and proposals put forward by the participants of the meeting, as well as measures to improve the activities of the Secretariat of the Council of Foreign Investors.

In parallel with the formation of an effective institutional environment, consistent work is being done to improve the legislative framework to ensure advanced industrial development, intensify investment processes and expand the export potential of industries and regions of the country. This process is under the close attention and direct involvement of Uzbek parliamentarians. As a result, in recent years more than 500 functions of the State in regulating business have been abolished, and about 70 functions have been transferred to public-private partnerships and outsourced to the private sector. Seventy-two types of licensed activities and 40 permits have been legally abolished to improve the business climate and simplify the business environment.

POSITIVE ASSESSMENT

These transformations are positively assessed by foreign rating agencies and organisations. Thus, according to the Index of Regulatory Restrictions on Foreign Direct Investment (Organisation for Economic Development and Cooperation), our country has the best rating among the Central Asian region. This year, the country's performance on the Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom, the indicators ‘Freedom of Trade’ and ‘Freedom of Investment’ has improved considerably.

Let us return to the assessment of the prospects of dynamics and effectiveness of reforms based on the results of the recent IMF consultations with Uzbekistan in accordance with Article IV of the IMF Agreement. According to the Fund's outcome document, the opportunities arising from accelerated structural reforms, increased income and capital inflows, and favourable commodity price dynamics are positive for Uzbekistan's sustainable development.

Analysis of industrialisation indicators, investment activity and expansion of export indicators testifies to the real effectiveness of the ‘Uzbekistan - 2030’ Strategy and a set of accompanying measures to strengthen the country's economic potential and international standing. This, in turn, becomes a demonstration of the irreversibility of reforms aimed at building an independent New Uzbekistan.

 

Deputy of the Legislative Chamber

of the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan,

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor Durbek Akhmedov

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia: a foundation for stability and sustainable development of the macroregion

📅 27.05.2026

1. Introduction

Central and South Asia form one of Eurasia’s most significant geographic junctions. Central Asia connects the continent’s east–west and north–south routes, while South Asia contains one of the world’s largest population bases and consumer markets. Taken together, the countries of the two subregions have a population of more than 2 billion people; however, their direct economic interaction remains below its potential level.

The scale of the potential market is confirmed by the figures: in 2024, the population of South Asia was approximately 1.68 billion people, while the region’s combined GDP was about US$4.5 trillion. At the same time, the economy of the five Central Asian countries in 2024 amounted to approximately US$489 billion. However, the level of interregional integration remains low: even within South Asia, intraregional trade is estimated at around 5% of total trade turnover, which is significantly lower than the ASEAN figure^[1][2][3].

This is evident in trade statistics: Central Asia’s main trade flows continue to be oriented toward Russia, China, the European Union, Türkiye, and the Middle East, while trade with South Asia occupies a comparatively limited niche.

The underused potential is explained not by a lack of demand, but by structural constraints. Between the two subregions, there are mountain barriers, complex cross-border routes, differing levels of integration into international supply chains, non-uniform customs and technical procedures, as well as the Afghanistan factor, which is simultaneously the shortest connecting link and the most sensitive element of the regional architecture. Therefore, the issue of connectivity has not only commercial but also strategic significance.

The restoration of economic ties between Central and South Asia should not be viewed as a romanticized return to historical routes. In modern conditions, it is a matter of competitiveness, supply-chain security, energy resilience, and diversification of foreign economic directions. For the countries of Central Asia, the southern route opens shorter access to the ports of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. For the countries of South Asia, it creates an opportunity to gain access to energy resources, food products, industrial goods, and new markets in Eurasia.

Uzbekistan occupies a special place in this logic. It is located in the central part of the region, borders all Central Asian states and Afghanistan, and therefore is capable of forming a link between the internal markets of Central Asia and the southern direction. At the same time, the role of a connector state means more than the transit of goods. It includes the coordination of infrastructure projects, the development of logistics services, the improvement of institutional quality, the creation of an analytical basis for decision-making, and the involvement of the private sector in interregional projects.

 

 

2. Historical and geographical preconditions for connectivity

The historical connection between Central and South Asia was formed long before the emergence of modern state borders. The cities of Transoxiana, Khorasan, Bactria, and northern India were part of a network of caravan routes and exchanges of artisanal goods, knowledge, religious traditions, and financial practices. Samarkand, Bukhara, Balkh, Merv, Kabul, Peshawar, and Lahore, in different periods, served as trade and cultural hubs linking the Eurasian space.

However, historical connectedness does not automatically translate into economic integration today. Modern supply chains depend on railways, highways, ports, energy networks, digital cargo-tracking systems, insurance, banking settlements, and predictable rules. Where even one of these elements is absent, transit becomes expensive, slow, and risky.

The geography of the region creates both incentives and constraints. On the one hand, the distance from Uzbekistan’s southern borders to northern Afghanistan is relatively short, and the route through Afghanistan is potentially the shortest overland path from Central Asia to Pakistan and onward to the ports of the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, mountain ranges, differences in railway gauge, the limited capacity of border infrastructure, security issues, and insufficient standardization of procedures increase the cost of projects.

Uzbekistan’s geographical role has not only qualitative but also measurable significance: the country is one of only two double-landlocked states in the world and, at the same time, the only state bordering all four other Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan. In this context, the Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway project, with a length of approximately 573 km, acquires systemic importance, since it could reduce the time and cost of transportation toward Pakistan’s ports by roughly 30%^[4].

Therefore, connectivity should be understood more broadly than the physical connection of two points on a map. In the modern economy, it includes four dimensions. The first is infrastructural: roads, railways, terminals, ports, and energy networks. The second is institutional: customs, tariffs, standards, sanitary and phytosanitary rules, permits, and transit guarantees. The third is commercial: demand, purchasing power, contracts, logistics companies, insurance, and banking channels. The fourth is social and humanitarian: education, labor skills, tourism, medical ties, and research cooperation.

This approach helps avoid oversimplification. Even the shortest road will not become a sustainable corridor unless it is supported by a reliable legal environment, competitive tariffs, financial guarantees, and coordination among states.

 

3. Current state of trade and economic cooperation

Trade and economic ties between Central and South Asia are developing, but their scale still does not correspond to the size of the markets. Trade between Central Asian countries and India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan remains relatively modest compared with their trade with China, Russia, the European Union, Türkiye, and countries of the Middle East.

Central Asia supplies, or could potentially expand supplies to South Asia, in such areas as agricultural products, grain, fruit and vegetable products, textiles, fertilizers, energy goods, certain types of metals, and industrial raw materials. South Asia, primarily India and Pakistan, holds competitive positions in pharmaceuticals, medical goods, IT services, equipment, textile products, processed food products, and consumer goods.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been strengthening the southern direction of its foreign economic policy. Trade ties with India and Pakistan are developing through pharmaceuticals, textiles, food products, services, logistics, and investment projects. Uzbekistan’s foreign trade in the southern direction is already growing, but it still occupies a limited place in the overall structure of foreign trade. The largest trade flows with South Asian countries are with Afghanistan and India. However, the very fact that certain bilateral flows are growing does not solve the main problem: interregional trade remains fragmented. In order to turn it into a sustainable market, it is necessary to reduce transaction costs, ensure the predictability of transit, make standards comparable, and develop business services.

The issue of trade data is especially important. Mutual trade is often assessed using different sources, while the statistics of exporting countries and importing countries may diverge. To develop effective policy, a regularly updated data panel is needed, broken down by corridors, types of cargo, border-crossing times, transportation costs, return loads, the number of permits, and the actual use of preferential regimes. Without such a database, regional initiatives risk remaining merely declaratory.

 

4. Transport and logistics infrastructure as the basis of connectivity

Transport infrastructure is the material foundation for the rapprochement of Central and South Asia. At the same time, it is more accurate to speak not of a single route, but of a portfolio of corridors. Relying on only one route increases the vulnerability of the entire system. A diversified network of routes through Afghanistan, Iran, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and existing Eurasian directions creates redundancy, reduces risks, and strengthens the negotiating position of shippers.

The key project in the southern direction remains the trans-Afghan railway corridor Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar. Its strategic value lies in its potential to connect Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries with Pakistan’s ports, including Karachi, Qasim, and Gwadar. If implemented, such a corridor could reduce the distance and delivery time for certain types of cargo. However, the project requires the resolution of several complex issues: financing, security, technical parameters, railway gauge compatibility, the operating model, tariffs, and the distribution of risks among participants.

The Termez–Hairatan hub in Uzbekistan has particular significance. It is the closest entry point from Uzbekistan into Afghanistan and is already used as a logistics, humanitarian, and trade channel. The development of terminals, warehouses, customs capacities, multimodal transport services, and digital cargo-control systems could turn this hub into a stable anchor point for interregional trade.

Alongside the trans-Afghan route, the route through Iran is also important. For India, Central Asia, and Afghanistan, the Chabahar port is of particular significance, as are its links with the International North–South Transport Corridor and the Ashgabat Agreement. This option does not replace the trans-Afghan route, but it increases the resilience of the trade system. Events of recent years have shown that the closure or restriction of individual routes quickly increases the importance of alternative pathways through Iran and the countries of Central Asia.

Road corridors remain a necessary complement to railways. They are especially important for perishable products, small consignments, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and high-value-added goods. In this area, the key factors are not only roads, but also border procedures, the permit system for carriers, weight control, insurance, the safety of parking areas, and access to backhaul cargo.

The development of air connectivity plays a separate role. Direct flights between Tashkent, Samarkand, Almaty, Astana, Delhi, Mumbai, Lahore, and other cities do not create mass freight logistics, but they reduce barriers to business travel, tourism, education, medical services, and managerial oversight of investment projects. For modern business, such mobility is not a secondary factor, but a systemic one.

 

5. Energy partnership: from project-based logic to a regional market

Energy is one of the most obvious areas of complementarity between Central and South Asia. The Central Asian countries possess significant resources in natural gas, hydropower, solar power, and wind generation. South Asia, primarily Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, faces high energy demand, seasonal consumption peaks, and the need for a more reliable supply structure.

The most advanced interregional project in the electricity sector is CASA-1000. According to World Bank materials, the project is intended to ensure the transmission of up to 1,300 MW of surplus summer electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The project also provides for high-voltage transmission infrastructure, including power transmission lines and converter stations. Its significance goes beyond the energy sector: it demonstrates the possibility of contract-based electricity trade between the subregions with the participation of international financial institutions.

In the gas sector, the best-known project is TAPI: Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India. Its planned logic is straightforward: Turkmen gas is expected to flow through Afghanistan to the energy-deficient markets of South Asia. Published descriptions of the project usually indicate a length of approximately 1,800 km and a designed capacity of up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. However, TAPI remains a complex project with a high dependence on security, financing, long-term contracts, payment guarantees, and political coordination among the participants.

CASA-1000 has not only political but also measurable infrastructural significance: the project cost is estimated at approximately US$1.2 billion, while the designed transmission capacity is 1,300 MW. The Kyrgyz component provides for around 456 km of 500 kV power transmission lines. This makes it possible to view CASA-1000 as the first major example of contract-based interregional electricity trade between Central and South Asia^[5][6].

The new energy agenda includes not only the export of fuel and electricity, but also the development of low-carbon solutions. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are expanding projects in solar, wind, and hydropower, while also modernizing their grids. In the long term, South Asia could become a market for seasonal electricity and energy services from Central Asia. However, this requires rules for cross-border trade, compatible dispatch mechanisms, commercial guarantees, transparent tariffs, and investment in grid resilience.

Energy cooperation must take into account climate and water-related factors. In Central Asia, hydropower is closely linked to irrigation and water resource management. In South Asia, electricity demand depends on temperature peaks, urbanization, and industrial growth. Therefore, energy projects should be accompanied by mechanisms for climate adaptation, forecasting water availability, improving energy efficiency, and developing energy storage systems.

 

6. Investment cooperation and business ties

Investment cooperation between Central and South Asia is still developing on a case-by-case basis, but it has significant potential. Unlike trade in raw materials, investment requires a higher level of trust, legal certainty, protection of property rights, clear tax regimes, access to foreign-exchange settlements, and high-quality business information.

The most promising areas include pharmaceuticals, medical services, agro-processing, textiles, logistics, warehouse infrastructure, IT services, education, tourism, financial technologies, renewable energy, and the production of components for infrastructure projects. South Asian companies have strong competencies in IT, pharmaceuticals, and services, while Central Asia offers access to raw materials, industrial sites, growing domestic markets, and transit opportunities.

An important task is to move from one-off business contacts to a systematic investment pipeline. This requires project catalogues, clear requirements for investors, standardized public-private partnership models, dispute-resolution mechanisms, insurance against political and commercial risks, and joint workforce training programs.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are of particular importance. Large infrastructure projects create the foundation, but it is small and medium-sized businesses that fill corridors with real goods and services. For them, access to information, affordable logistics services, digital marketplaces, simplified payments, standardized documents, and support in entering a new market are critical.

Development institutions and international financial organizations can play a catalytic role. Their participation reduces risks, improves the quality of project preparation, and disciplines the participants. However, external financing does not replace national reforms. Without clear rules, transparent statistics, and effective courts, even concessional loans will not create a sustainable flow of investment.

7. The strategic role of Uzbekistan as a connector state

Uzbekistan possesses a unique set of preconditions for playing the role of a connector state. It is located at the center of Central Asia, borders all the countries of the region as well as Afghanistan, and is also a major demographic and industrial market. For a country without access to the sea, the development of external corridors is not an optional task, but a condition for long-term competitiveness.

Uzbekistan’s role is not limited to transit. A transit country earns revenue from the movement of goods, but a connector state shapes rules, services, trust, and the institutional environment. This means developing multimodal hubs, creating logistics centers, digitalizing customs procedures, expanding railway and road links, training personnel, attracting banks and insurance organizations, and providing analytical support for projects.

The southern direction strengthens Uzbekistan’s foreign economic diversification. It complements the country’s already existing links in the northern, eastern, and western directions. At the same time, the diversification of routes reduces dependence on individual markets and transit pathways, which is especially important amid instability in global trade, changes in tariff policy, and geopolitical restrictions.

Termez occupies a special place in this strategy. It can serve as a border logistics center, a platform for trade with Afghanistan, a hub of humanitarian and commercial infrastructure, and a symbolic space for discussing connectivity between Central and South Asia. To turn this role into a sustainable result, investment is needed in terminals, railway approaches, warehouse capacity, services for carriers, and a system for analyzing cargo flows.

Uzbekistan’s strength also lies in its ability to put forward multilateral initiatives. Interregional connectivity cannot be implemented through bilateral agreements alone. It requires the alignment of interests among the countries of Central Asia, the countries of South Asia, Afghanistan, international financial institutions, business, and the expert community. In this sphere, Uzbekistan can act as a coordinator of the agenda and a provider of analytical solutions.

 

8. Key barriers and ways to overcome them

The first barrier is incomplete infrastructure. Many corridors exist in the form of project concepts or partially functioning routes. To transform them into commercially sustainable directions, technical and economic feasibility studies, agreed tariffs, clear sources of financing, unified operational models, and transparent risk allocation are required.

The second barrier is security and the predictability of transit. For business, what matters is not only the length of the route, but also the likelihood of delays, losses, border closures, changes in rules, and additional payments. Therefore, transport policy should include insurance mechanisms, security standards, corridor monitoring, crisis protocols, and regular information exchange among government agencies.

The third barrier is administrative fragmentation. Different documents, uncoordinated customs procedures, weak advance declaration, the absence of mutual recognition of certain certificates, and limited digital interoperability increase the cost of trade. The solution lies in the transition to electronic transport documents, the expansion of the single-window principle, the introduction of risk-based control, and the coordination of technical standards.

The scale of the financial challenge can be assessed through the example of CAREC: in 2021–2024, transport investment under the program amounted to US$8.61 billion, with a significant share of financing provided by international partners. This shows that infrastructure corridors require not only a political decision, but also a sustainable financial architecture^[7][8].

Administrative barriers have a measurable expression. According to CAREC monitoring, in 2022, the average border-crossing time on road corridors was 9.9 hours, while on railway corridors it was 40.6 hours. This confirms that the digitalization of documents, advance declaration, and risk-based control can produce an effect even without the immediate construction of new arterial routes.

The fourth barrier is financial constraints. Infrastructure projects require large capital investments and have long payback periods. A combination of budget funds, loans from international financial organizations, public-private partnerships, guarantees, project financing, and blended-finance mechanisms is needed. At the same time, each project must undergo an assessment of commercial viability, not only political attractiveness.

The fifth barrier is the lack of market information. Companies often do not know potential partners, market requirements, logistics tariffs, certification rules, or available financial instruments. This barrier can be reduced through digital trade platforms, business missions, sectoral catalogues, regular exhibitions, analytical reviews, and consulting centers under chambers of commerce and industry.

The sixth barrier is climate and resource-related risks. Mountainous areas, droughts, floods, changes in glacial runoff, and extreme weather events affect roads, energy, and agriculture. New corridors should be designed with climate resilience in mind, while energy projects should take into account the water balance and the seasonality of demand.

Practical priorities through 2030

Area	Short-Term Focus	Medium-Term Result
Transport	Modernization of border terminals, digital cargo tracking and recordkeeping, corridor statistics	Reduction in delivery time and cost, increased reliability of routes
Trade	Electronic documents, advance declaration, work on harmonizing standards	A more predictable regime for exporters and carriers
Energy	Contractual models, grid investments, consideration of seasonality	Regional electricity trade and diversification of supplies
Investment	Project catalogues, guarantee instruments, support for SMEs	Expansion of private-sector participation and industrial cooperation
Institutions	Project registry of the Termez Dialogue and annual monitoring	Transition from declarations to measurable results

 

9. The Termez Dialogue as an institutional foundation for cooperation

The Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia can become an important institutional platform for coordinating the interregional agenda. In 2025, the first dialogue was held in Termez, dedicated to the formation of a shared space of peace, friendship, and prosperity. The very choice of Termez emphasizes the city’s practical role as Uzbekistan’s southern hub and as a symbolic point of connection with Afghanistan and South Asia.

The effectiveness of such a format will depend on whether it can move from general statements to the management of a project-based agenda. For this purpose, it would be advisable to structure the dialogue around four permanent tracks: transport and logistics, trade and standards, energy and climate, and investment and human capital. Each track should have a project map, progress indicators, responsible participants, and a mechanism for annual updates.

The participation of business is of particular importance. States can sign framework documents, but real demand for corridors is generated by exporters, importers, carriers, banks, insurance companies, terminal operators, and manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, within the framework of the Termez Dialogue, business sessions, B2B platforms, sectoral presentations, and discussions of specific barriers faced by companies are necessary.

The expert track should serve as an evidence base. It can prepare an annual report on the state of connectivity between Central and South Asia, a corridor-readiness index, monitoring of transportation time and costs, a review of regulatory barriers, analysis of investment projects, and recommendations for governments. In this area, Uzbekistan’s analytical institutions can play a leading role.

The Termez Dialogue is also important as an instrument for involving Afghanistan in economic processes on a pragmatic basis. This is not a matter of political legitimization, but of reducing economic isolation, developing transit procedures, supporting sustainable livelihoods, and creating incentives for stability. This logic corresponds to the interests of all participants, since Afghanistan’s economic predictability directly affects the cost and security of interregional routes.

 

10. Connectivity and the Sustainable Development Goals

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is directly linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The development of energy networks supports SDG 7, the expansion of trade and employment corresponds to SDG 8, the construction of resilient infrastructure is linked to SDG 9, the reduction of spatial isolation contributes to SDG 10, climate resilience relates to SDG 13, and regional coordination and partnerships correspond to SDG 16 and SDG 17.

However, the link with the SDGs does not arise automatically. Infrastructure can promote development, but it can also deepen inequality if benefits accrue only to major actors while local communities bear the costs. Therefore, projects should include environmental assessment, social safeguards, consultations with the population, management of land-related issues, occupational safety measures, and transparent compensation mechanisms.

Special attention should be paid to women, youth, and small enterprises. New corridors create demand for services in logistics, trade, catering, repair, digital support, education, and tourism. If access to these opportunities is opened to local entrepreneurs, infrastructure will become a source of inclusive growth, not merely transit rent.

Climate risk is already becoming an economic factor. According to World Bank estimates, by 2030, nearly 90% of South Asia’s population may be exposed to intense heat, while more than one fifth of the population may face the risk of severe flooding. For Central Asia, the key constraint is water: in Uzbekistan, the volume of water withdrawal significantly exceeds internal renewable resources, and the current water deficit may increase to 7 billion m³ by 2030 and to 15 billion m³ by 2050^[9][10][11].

The climate dimension of connectivity is becoming increasingly important. South Asia and Central Asia are exposed to the risks of extreme weather events, glacier melt, droughts, floods, and tensions around water. Therefore, new roads, railways, power transmission lines, and logistics centers should be designed with long-term climate scenarios in mind. For the energy sector, this means combining electricity trade, energy efficiency, renewable sources, and grid resilience.

From the standpoint of sustainable development, the most promising model is not one of raw-material transit, but one of value-added creation. This implies agro-processing, industrial cooperation, service chains, digital trade, the localization of selected industries, and workforce training. In this case, connectivity is transformed from the movement of goods into a mechanism of structural modernization.

 

11. Conclusion

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is one of the key conditions for the sustainable development of the macroregion. It is capable of expanding sales markets, reducing transport isolation, strengthening energy security, supporting employment, and creating new incentives for regional stability. At the same time, the expected effect depends not on a single project, but on a coordinated package of measures.

The main practical conclusion is the need for a portfolio approach. The trans-Afghan railway, the route through Iran, road corridors, air connectivity, the CASA-1000 and TAPI energy projects, trade digitalization, logistics hubs, and investment platforms should be viewed as mutually complementary elements. Each of them has different implementation timelines, risks, and economic logic; therefore, the regional strategy should ensure redundancy and flexibility.

Uzbekistan has objective advantages for the role of a connector state. Its geography, demographic potential, industrial base, southern hub in Termez, and active foreign economic agenda make it possible to bring together the interests of Central and South Asia.

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform where political will is translated into project-level discipline. For this to happen, it should generate not only declarations, but also a list of projects, indicators, road maps, evaluation mechanisms, and permanent channels of interaction among business, experts, and government agencies.

In the long term, connectivity between Central and South Asia should be oriented not only toward increasing trade volumes, but also toward improving the quality of development. A sustainable macroregion will take shape where infrastructure is connected with institutions, energy with climate responsibility, trade with industrial cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives with evidence-based analysis and practical results.

 

Muhammad Babadjanov,

Head of Department

at The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies

under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan

 

[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration/trade

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=TJ-UZ-KZ-TM-KG

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/country/south-asia

[4] https://uzembassy.kz/en/article/the-mazar-i-sharif-kabul-peshawar-railway-will-open-up-broad-prospects-for-international-trade

[5] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/brief/updated-q-a-on-casa-1000-resumption-in-afghanistan

[6] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/11/01/additional-financing-for-casa-1000-project-for-the-kyrgyz-republic

[7] https://www.carecprogram.org/uploads/03-CAREC-Transport-Strategy-2030-Midterm-Review-Draft-Report.pdf

[8] https://cpmm.carecprogram.org/2022-report/key-results/

[9] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/03/climate-resilience-in-south-asia-will-be-private-sector-led

[10] https://data.worldbank.org/country/uzbekistan

[11] https://www.adb.org/news/features/numbers-climate-change-central-asia

Members of the Uzbekistan national chess team

📅 24.09.2024

I cordially congratulate you on your worthy participation in the 45th World Chess Olympiad held in Budapest, the capital of Hungary. You have opened another bright page in the history of Uzbek chess, taking the honorable third place among representatives of about 200 countries.

In very sharp and uncompromising chess duels, you, having demonstrated high intellectual potential, unwavering will and steadfastness, outperformed the teams of such countries as China, Serbia, Armenia, Germany, Azerbaijan, Slovenia, Spain, which is truly admirable.

By your example, we have seen that the youth of New Uzbekistan is capable of achieving truly high standards in competitions of mind and thinking, and this has filled our hearts with a sense of joy and pride.

The results achieved by Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Zhavohir Sindorov, Shamsiddin Vokhidov, Nodirbek Yokubboyev and Zhakhongir Vokhidov, who displayed outstanding intellectual abilities, are very valuable and dear to us.

It should be especially noted that Shamsiddin Vokhidov, having won a gold medal and Nodirbek Abdusattorov a silver medal in the board section, proved again what true masters of chess game they are.

Along with courageous and brave young men, our purposeful chess players such as Afruza Hamdamova, Nilufar Yokubboeva, Umida Omonova, Marjona Malikova, Nodira Nodirjonova, who directed all their strength and energy, skill and professionalism to worthily defend the honor of the Motherland, also took part in the competition.

It is undoubtedly noteworthy that they improved their results from the last Olympiad, taking the 12th place among the
170 countries. It is gratifying that our chess player Nodira Nodirjonova won the 2nd place in the board section and was awarded a silver medal. I sincerely congratulate them all, wish them to reach even higher milestones and take prizes at future competitions.

Undoubtedly, the tremendous success of our chess players is a practical result of the enormous attention paid to the youth in New Uzbekistan, the ongoing large-scale reforms to develop sports, including the most intellectual one - chess.

Undoubtedly, such bright achievements further unite our people on the way to noble goals, serve as a source of inspiration for thousands of young men and women.

Taking this opportunity, on behalf of all our people and on my own behalf I express my sincere gratitude to you, my dear ones, to your experienced mentors and coaches who made a great contribution to your success, to all members of the national team, to your parents who supported you and to all chess fans.

May you have good luck in conquering the highest peaks at the next World Chess Olympiad, which will be hosted by our native Uzbekistan for the first time in 2026!

I wish you all health, happiness and well-being, great success in your studies and subsequent activities. May your path to victory be steadfast, my dear ones!

To the participants of the joint conference of the International Federation of Textile Manufacturers and the International Association of Apparel Manufacturers

📅 10.09.2024

Dear participants of the conference!

Ladies and gentlemen!

First of all, from the bottom of my heart, I sincerely congratulate you, my dear ones, on the opening of today's prestigious event - the joint conference of the International Textile Federation and the International Association of Apparel Manufacturers.

I would like to express my special gratitude to the President of the International Federation of Textile Manufacturers Mr. Kei Vi Srinavasan and President of the International Association of Apparel Manufacturers Mr. Chem Altan for the fact that this joint conference is being held in Uzbekistan for the first time.

At the same time, I express my sincere gratitude to the high-ranking representatives of the industry, heads of prestigious international and regional organizations participating in this conference.

Welcome to the pearl of the ancient Great Silk Road, the land of craftsmen - the majestic city of Samarkand!

Dear participants of the conference!

In recent years we have taken decisive steps to radically improve the investment and business environment, create favorable conditions for foreign and domestic investors.

As in all spheres and sectors, we have been implementing large-scale reforms in the textile and garment industries.

First of all, the state monopoly in cotton cultivation has been abolished, and a cluster system has been created and is being consistently improved, covering the entire process from raw material procurement to the production of finished goods.

Our reforms in this area have won the recognition of prestigious international organizations, and the boycott of Uzbek cotton has been lifted. Our cooperation with the international coalition “Cotton Campaign” continues in this direction.

At the same time, as a result of creating a stable legislative framework, improving the investment environment and introducing new technologies, the volume of cotton fiber processing increased from 40 percent in 2017 to 100 percent. At the same time, the work on import of cotton raw materials and production of finished products with high added value began.

Thanks to the opportunities created in the sphere, the volume of textile production has increased 5 times, its export - 4 times.

The most important thing is that earlier a significant part, i.e. 70 percent of exports in the sector, was accounted for raw materials, while today 60 percent of exported goods are finished products.

In the first years of reforms, we identified as a priority task the development of human capital, training of the population, especially young people and women, in professions, training of qualified personnel for all sectors, and these issues will continue to be in the center of our attention.

Decent working conditions that meet international requirements are created for the employees of enterprises, and the “Better Work” and “Better Cotton” programs are systematically implemented.

Particular attention is paid to ensuring labor rights and providing full support to over 600,000 workers.

At the same time, decisive measures are taken to create national brands, attract prestigious international and foreign trademarks to our country.

Authoritative participants of the world market, such as “Teamdress” (Germany), “Cotonella” (Italy), “Indorama” (Singapore), “Posco International” and “Gwangyang” (South Korea) are effectively operating in the country.

Uzbekistan's textile industry is being actively integrated into global production processes, and the number of our reliable partners on all continents of the world is increasing.

It should be noted that long-term cooperation with foreign investors and international brands, increasing production of high value-added products, bringing national brands to the international level will remain our priorities in the textile industry in the future.

I am convinced that today's conference will serve as an effective platform for further strengthening and expanding cooperation in this area on an international scale, sharing best practices and ideas.

I hope it will contribute to further expansion of mutually beneficial cooperation between representatives of more than 500 national and international organizations, manufacturers and retailers participating in the conference, and will bring the development of the industry to a qualitatively new level.

We highly appreciate and support all mutually beneficial initiatives of our foreign partners. In particular, we are ready to provide all possible assistance in introducing the necessary standards for international brands to enter Uzbekistan.

We are ready to create all necessary conditions for prestigious international organizations to regularly hold conferences, exhibitions and fashion shows in our country, particularly in such cities as Bukhara, Khiva, Shakhrisabz, Margilan, Kokand, Namangan, Andijan, which have high tourism and industrial potential.

I am confident that the ancient history, rich cultural heritage of our country, meetings with our hard-working and generous people will make an indelible impression on you, and the huge socio-economic potential of our regions will encourage investors to implement new projects.

I congratulate you once again on the opening of the prestigious conference that is starting today and wish you all good health, happiness and prosperity, success in the fruitful work of the conference.


Shavkat Mirziyoyev,

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

State awards presented to brave athletes

📅 14.09.2024

On September 13, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev held a meeting with the winners and medalists of the XVII Summer Paralympic Games.

The event was attended by the leadership of the National Paralympic Committee and sports federations, coaches, parents of athletes, representatives of state and public organizations.

As you know, the competitions were held from August 28 to September 8 in the capital of France, Paris. About 4.4 thousand Paralympians from 168 countries participated in them. From Uzbekistan, 65 para-athletes competed in 9 sports.

The Paralympic Games, like the Olympics, were successful for our country. Our compatriots set many records, winning 10 gold, 9 silver, 7 bronze - a total of 26 medals. They took 13th place in the overall team standings, as well as 3rd place in Asia and 1st place among Turkic, Islamic countries and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

To the participants of the IV International Symposium "Alisher Navoi and the Eastern Renaissance"

📅 10.02.2025

The text of the article is in Uzbek!

Uzbekistan’s Experience in Poverty Reduction and the Formation of a New Social Protection Model

📅 17.10.2025

Since 2017, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s administration has pursued a sweeping reform agenda, liberalizing the economy while strengthening social welfare. These reforms are enshrined in new policies and the 2023 Constitution, which explicitly defines Uzbekistan as a “social state” responsible for ensuring employment and reducing poverty. The government’s national strategy (“Uzbekistan–2030”) even set a target of halving poverty by 2026. In short, Uzbekistan’s policy framework has shifted toward the combined goals of economic growth and inclusive social protection.

By 2023 the new National Agency for Social Protection (NASP) and community “Inson” service centres were delivering aid to roughly 2.3 million needy families – about a four-fold increase from 2017. Pensions and basic benefits were also raised: for instance, pension and disability payments in real terms are now about 1.5 times higher than before the reforms.

Community service is delivered through Inson centers, one-stop offices in each locality that help citizens apply for benefits and services. These “Inson” centres provide personal assistance with applications and information, reflecting a shift to integrated, client-oriented support. Relatedly, a new registry of persons requiring care has been established (by 2023 it contained ~17,800 profiles) to manage support for the disabled and elderly; each case is reviewed quarterly so that aid can be adjusted as needed. Together, these digital tools and organizational changes – one-stop “Inson” centers, a unified registry, targeted lists and case management – represent a modern social protection architecture far beyond Uzbekistan’s previous fragmented system.

International partners have closely supported and evaluated these reforms. The World Bank has played a leading role: it delivered roughly $2.1 billion through policy-based loans (2018–2021) to finance structural reforms in jobs, governance and social policy. In mid-2024 the Bank approved an additional $100 million “INSON” project to improve social care for vulnerable groups. This project will establish more than 50 community-based social service centres and expand services to some 50,000 people (including older persons, disabled, and children).

Within the framework of the “From Poverty to Prosperity” program, launched on 1 November 2024, families receive support across seven key dimensions:

• Ensuring stable employment and achieving higher income levels;
• Access to education and vocational training;
• Access to guaranteed state healthcare services;
• Access to social services;
• Improvement of housing conditions;
• Development of mahalla (community) infrastructure by the state;
• Direct engagement and dialogue with public sector representatives.

More than 600,000 families have gained access to 1.3 million social services aimed at employment and income growth. Members of these families have also benefited from over 2.2 million guaranteed healthcare services, directly contributing to their sustainable participation in the labor market.

Expanding Social Care Provision

For individuals requiring continuous care, a new model of service provision through private providers has been introduced. These services include household assistance, home- and field-based care, medical and social rehabilitation, and personal assistant support. Currently, 13,800 individuals — representing 76% of all those in need of care — receive such services from the private sector.

According to the Presidential Decree of the Republic of Uzbekistan, by 2030 the number of recipients of social services is expected to reach at least 3 million citizens annually, while the share of services provided by the non-state sector will rise to 30%. This approach fully aligns with the principles of the social and solidarity economy.

The programs implemented by the National Agency for Social Protection are characterized as accessible, effective, and oriented toward sustainable economic development.

1. Accessibility

As part of the “From Poverty to Prosperity” program, a National Registry of Poor Families has been established. The identification of households and decisions regarding their inclusion are made directly at the community (mahalla) level. As of today, 667,000 families, comprising approximately 2.8 million individuals, have been registered. This provides a comprehensive understanding of their living conditions and the opportunities for poverty reduction.

2. Effectiveness

In the first nine months of the current year, the average per capita income among registered families has nearly doubled, rising from 174,000 soums (~USD 14) to 338,000 soums (~USD 27) per month. Furthermore, 73,000 families that previously had no income now earn official wages. During the same period, 150,000 families have successfully escaped poverty, with 105,000 (70%) doing so primarily due to increased formal employment income.

3. Sustainability

To ensure targeted support, families are categorized into three groups:

• Red – households with persons with disabilities requiring care, as well as families without a breadwinner or headed by a single parent;
• Yellow – families with employable members but lacking stable income and professional skills;
• Green – families that have exited poverty but remain at risk of falling back.

This classification enables the application of differentiated measures: “red” families receive priority care and social support; “yellow” families are targeted with employment and training programs; and “green” families benefit from measures aimed at preventing a return to poverty.

Within this framework, the development of a “care economy” has emerged as a key priority. The Agency has introduced daycare services for children with disabilities and the “Step into an Active Life” program for older persons. These initiatives enable family members to participate in the labor market, thereby activating previously unpaid caregivers.

Investing in Human Capital

Particular attention is given to children from low-income families. The state subsidizes up to 90% of the costs associated with their education and development. In 2025, 125,000 children from poor households gained preferential access to preschools, demonstrating how social protection systems can make an indirect yet significant contribution to poverty reduction.

In conclusion, the programs implemented by the National Agency for Social Protection go far beyond material support. They create enabling conditions for income generation, employment, and human capital development, thereby contributing directly to the sustainable economic growth of the country.

Olima Almatova Qorabekovna, a resident of “Ezgulik” makhalla, Buka district, Tashkent region, who received support from the Agency, said:

“My spouse worked at the mining combine for forty years, but after he became ill, he could no longer continue. For his sake, I took on whatever jobs people offered me. When the doctors suggested placing stents in his heart arteries, I refused, saying: ‘Whatever help you can give, give it to my family. I’ve lived my life, I am already sixty-seven. I’ve seen so much — whatever comes, I will accept it. I don’t need stents. I only ask that you give a little help to my family.’

When support arrived under the President’s decision, I cannot express how happy I was. I said: ‘Oh God, there really is someone who came to open my door.’ They came and extended a helping hand. We planted cucumbers and tomatoes, and soon money began to come in. We have already earned income three times. So much support has reached us, and we are deeply grateful to our President. Feeding even one family is difficult, yet he is taking care of millions. For those who are struggling and in need, such help gives strength, brings joy, and inspires them to move forward. One can hardly imagine just how powerful that is.”

In conclusion, the programs implemented by the National Agency for Social Protection go far beyond material support. They create enabling conditions for income generation, employment, and human capital development, thereby contributing directly to the sustainable economic growth of the country.

Areas of Cooperation between Belarus and Uzbekistan in Strengthening Sustainable Transport Corridors in Eurasia

📅 03.07.2026

Belarus and Uzbekistan actively cooperate in the transport and logistics sector within the framework of the Coordinating Transport Conference of the CIS Member States (CIS CTC), the Organization for Cooperation of Railways (OSJD), and the Commonwealth Railway Transport Council (CIS RTC).

An additional basis for the development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation is the participation of both countries in the CIS and SCO, where issues of developing international transport corridors and strengthening transport connectivity between states occupy an important place on the cooperation agenda.

A practical result of cooperation is the steady positive growth in freight traffic between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Republic of Belarus, which is one of the republic's key trade and transport partners.

In terms of export and import freight volumes, Belarus is among Uzbekistan's top ten trading partners. By the end of 2025, freight traffic between the two countries reached 850,000 tons, an increase of 30% compared to the previous year.

The structure of freight traffic is dominated by imports, primarily timber, timber products, and food products, while export volumes remain insignificant and consist primarily of agricultural products.

The current situation demonstrates significant potential for increasing mutual freight traffic, primarily through the expansion of Uzbek exports and the development of new logistics routes.

In the context of geopolitical conflicts and the diversification of global supply chains, the creation of new international transport corridors in Eurasia using mixed modes of transport in the East-West and North-South directions is acquiring strategic importance.

The following are promising cooperation projects:

1. Development of new, optimal alternative transport routes with access to seaports.

A promising area is the development of the international transport route "Belarus – Russia – Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – Indian Ocean ports," which utilizes the shortest railway section running through Kazakhstan between the Dina Nurpeisova and Karakalpakstan stations.

On November 1, 2023, in Tashkent, at the SCO Transport Forum, the transport ministers of Uzbekistan, Russia, and Kazakhstan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the creation and development of this corridor. Belarus and Pakistan joined the Memorandum in 2024, and negotiations are currently underway to add Afghanistan.

The economic logic of the project is very clear. The corridor is approximately half the length of existing alternative routes and reduces delivery times by 2-3 times. It will directly connect the countries of the European Union and the CIS with Southeast and South Asia via a land-based rail and road route, increasing our countries' transit potential by transporting goods to the densely populated countries of South Asia – India and Pakistan – via the Uzbekistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan route.

In the future, joint work is planned to develop uniform standards for the operation of the international transport corridor, including the introduction of a single shipping document and the unification of technological and technical standards.

It should be noted that the new route through Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will contribute to the diversification of the geography and structure of foreign trade and will lead to an increase in the region's transit potential.

This potential is already being demonstrated in practice. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, freight transit to the south through Uzbekistan increased by 23% compared to the same period last year, reaching 1.8 million tons, of which 1.3 million tons were transported by rail and 0.5 million tons by road.

1. Cooperation in Transport Personnel Training.

A significant element of the long-term partnership is cooperation in the training and advanced training of transport specialists.

Belarus has a recognized track record in transport training. For example, the Belarusian State University of Transport in Gomel is a leading specialized educational and research institution, which includes the Institute for Advanced Training and Retraining of Personnel and the Research Institute of Railway Transport.

Developing cooperation between the Belarusian State University of Transport and specialized organizations in Uzbekistan, particularly the Tashkent State Transport University, would enable the organization of internships and advanced training programs for specialists, the development of academic mobility for undergraduate, graduate, and postgraduate students, and joint research in priority areas of rail transport development, multimodal transportation, and international transport logistics.

III. Digitalization of Permit Exchange for Road Transport.

A separate practical area is the transition to the electronic exchange of permit forms—the E-permit system. Uzbekistan currently fully implements this exchange with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, and Turkey, and partially with Tajikistan. Work is underway to launch it with Turkmenistan.

Implementing this system in cooperation with Belarus will ensure transparency in permit distribution, eliminate human error, and strengthen oversight of their use, which is especially relevant given the growing volume of road transport between the countries.

Thus, cooperation between Belarus and Uzbekistan in transport and logistics goes beyond increasing mutual traffic and acquires a strategic dimension.

The implementation of these projects—from a multimodal corridor to Indian Ocean ports to the digitalization of permitting procedures—could transform our countries' geographical location into a real competitive advantage, making the Belarus-Uzbekistan-South Asia route convenient, fast, and predictable.

Joint and consistent work in these areas will strengthen economic ties between the two countries and make a significant contribution to the development of sustainable transport connectivity in the Eurasian space.

 

Head of Department, Center for the Study of Transport and Logistics Development Problems under the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Uzbekistan Dildora Ibragimova