Just a few years ago, the concept of the “smart city” was largely seen as a futuristic idea associated with digital control panels, autonomous transport, widespread sensor networks, and automated urban services.

Today, the smart city has become a practical tool for addressing modern urban challenges. This trend can be seen across countries facing rapid population growth, increasing migration to major metropolitan areas, overstretched infrastructure, and mounting climate risks.

In this context, smart technologies are no longer viewed as an end in themselves. Instead, they are increasingly used to improve the resilience and efficiency of key urban systems, including transport, energy, public utilities, waste management, and environmental monitoring. This allows cities to adapt more effectively to emerging challenges, reduce pressure on infrastructure, and improve the overall quality of urban life.

At the same time, smart city development is gaining strategic economic importance by creating long-term drivers of growth. Such projects attract substantial investment by combining digital infrastructure, innovative services, and principles of sustainable development.

The growth of smart urban areas also contributes to job creation in high-tech sectors ranging from IT and telecommunications to engineering and urban data analytics. In parallel, the modernization of urban infrastructure improves resource management and raises overall living standards.

Against this backdrop, the approaches taken by Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan deserve particular attention. Rather than simply following a global trend, both countries are developing their own models of smart urbanization — ones in which technology serves people and supports the creation of more comfortable, sustainable, and future-oriented cities.

In this regard, Uzbekistan offers a particularly notable example, as urbanization is becoming an increasingly pressing issue amid steady demographic growth. The country’s population is growing by approximately 1.8–2% annually, placing additional pressure on transport systems, housing, infrastructure, and social services.

Under these conditions, the government is focusing not on limited modernization of the existing urban environment, but on the creation of new growth centers. The Smart City concept adopted in 2019, followed by the Digital Uzbekistan – 2030 strategy, established the institutional foundation for the large-scale digital transformation of urban infrastructure and public services.

One of the most visible outcomes of this strategy is the New Tashkent project, whose significance extends far beyond that of a traditional urban development initiative.

In essence, the project aims to create a new economic, administrative, and investment hub capable of easing pressure on the existing capital while introducing a fundamentally new model of urban organization based on smart city principles and sustainable development.

In this case, the concept of the “15-minute city,” green infrastructure, digital governance, public transport prioritization, and energy efficiency are not treated as separate elements, but as components of a broader strategy aimed at expanding economic space and improving the quality of the urban environment.

Against this backdrop, New Tashkent illustrates how urbanization can serve not only as a response to infrastructure pressures, but also as a tool for creating new centers of economic growth capable of redistributing business activity and shaping the long-term development of the urban agglomeration.

This is also why the project has a distinctly international dimension. Its implementation involves Singapore’s Meinhardt Group, the UK-based Foster + Partners and Cross Works, the Dutch firm OMA, Japan’s Sojitz Corporation, South Korea’s Incheon International Airport Corporation, and other international partners. This reflects Uzbekistan’s efforts to integrate global expertise into its national development model.

Azerbaijan, in turn, has chosen a different approach to the development of smart urban spaces. Rather than building entirely new cities from scratch, the focus has been placed on the restoration and comprehensive modernization of recently reintegrated territories alongside the introduction of modern urban planning solutions and Smart City technologies.

This approach goes beyond the physical reconstruction of infrastructure and involves rethinking urban development through digital technologies, sustainable planning, and green standards.

Following the reintegration of Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur, Azerbaijan faced not only the challenge of rebuilding damaged territories, but also the task of their socio-economic reintegration into the country’s broader development framework. In this context, the concepts of Smart City and Smart Village have gained particular strategic importance, serving as the foundation for a new model of territorial planning and governance.

Within this model, technology is no longer viewed solely as a modernization tool, but as an instrument for comprehensive territorial development. It supports the rapid restoration of basic services, creates conditions for the return of displaced populations, stimulates economic activity, and enables more effective management of spatial development.

One of the clearest examples is Aghali — Azerbaijan’s first “smart village.” The project demonstrates how digital infrastructure, renewable energy, smart agriculture, and modern public services can become part of a new model of post-conflict reconstruction.

The village covers around 119 hectares and includes more than 200 modern eco-friendly homes equipped with smart systems, as well as social and public infrastructure facilities, including a school, kindergarten, medical center, ASAN xidmət and DOST service centers, small business facilities, and administrative buildings.

A similar development model can also be seen in Fizuli, Aghdam, Shusha, Khojaly, and several other settlements, where new infrastructure systems are being developed based on environmental sustainability, transport accessibility, and digital management of urban and rural services.

Like Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan also relies heavily on international cooperation as a key driver of modernization. Huawei is involved in implementing digital solutions, the World Bank provides analytical and advisory support, while Japan is expanding cooperation in smart infrastructure and green energy, contributing to the adoption of advanced technological practices.

Uzbekistan is building a new urban environment from the ground up, while Azerbaijan is developing its model against the backdrop of a complex historical and territorial transformation. At first glance, these are very different starting points. Yet this is precisely what makes the similarities in their approaches particularly notable. In both cases, digital infrastructure is not treated as an additional layer built onto the city, but as a core element shaping its future development from the outset.

At the same time, neither country is pursuing a model based on copying existing examples. The experiences of Singapore, Dubai, and Qatar are being studied, but not replicated. Instead, both states are developing their own models tailored to local demographic, geographic, historical, and social realities. This reflects not a limitation of choice, but the maturity of their strategic approach.

Against the backdrop of accelerating urbanization across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the experiences of Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan are increasingly emerging as a kind of laboratory for new development models. While their strategies differ in tools and priorities, both are driven by the same objective: building a new generation of cities that combine technology, sustainability, adaptability, and a people-centered approach.

Abbosbek Mashrapov

Senior Research Fellow, International Institute for Central Asia

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia Antonella Bassani on September 30.

The sides considered topical issues of further expansion of strategic cooperation with the World Bank Group and support of this leading international financial institution to the ongoing reform program in New Uzbekistan.

At the beginning of the meeting, Vice President Antonella Bassani conveyed to the head of our state sincere greetings and best wishes of World Bank President Ajay Bangui.

During the conversation, the current high level and fruitful nature of bilateral cooperation were noted with deep satisfaction.

In recent years, our country has become one of the largest partners of the Bank - the portfolio of projects has increased several times and now exceeds 12 billion dollars.

The World Bank supports the implementation of important reforms aimed at ensuring the sustainability of economic and social sectors. Since July this year, the Bank's regional office has been operating in Tashkent.

Such areas as poverty reduction, transformation of state-owned enterprises and banks, decarbonization, support for WTO accession and others have been identified as priorities for further expansion of the partnership.

Special attention was paid to the programs of urbanization and integrated development of regions, modernization of energy and irrigation infrastructure, support to the private sector.

There was also an exchange of views on the promotion of regional projects.

In recent years, improving the living standards of the population and ensuring access to housing has become one of the top priorities of state policy in Uzbekistan. The reforms being implemented in this area go beyond simply increasing construction volumes — they are being carried out through a comprehensive approach closely linked to accelerating demographic growth and urbanization.

Demographic Factor and Growing Housing Demand

The high rates of demographic growth observed in the country require a fundamental review of housing policy. In recent years, the country’s population has been growing by nearly 800,000 people per year, and the number of new families by 250,000 — figures that demand a sharp acceleration of efforts to meet housing needs. To address this demand, the construction of 110,000 apartments for 2025 alone. By 2040, the goal is to double the number of housing units built annually to 421,000 and increase the mortgage loan portfolio to $56.7 billion.

Urbanization and the Shift to Integrated Construction (Vertical Growth)

Due to rapid population growth and limited land resources, the approach to urban expansion is changing. The approximately 40% of the country’s multi-apartment housing stock, currently made up of 2–3-story buildings, is being replaced by modern housing built on the principle of vertical growth, incorporating social infrastructure and green spaces.

Strict urbanization criteria have been established for the development of “New Uzbekistan” residential districts. In particular, new sites are selected based on the following criteria:

• The district must be located near the district (or city) center (within 2 km) and have existing infrastructure.
• At least 70,000 residents must live in the area.
• Construction of buildings covering at least 100,000 square meters and no fewer than 7 stories.

Institutional Reforms and Digitalization

To effectively manage urbanization and the housing market, the National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Urbanization and the Housing Market has been established. This committee coordinates urbanization processes, renovation programs, and the construction of “New Uzbekistan” districts. To prevent uncontrolled urban sprawl, plans are underway to designate 45 agglomeration zones across the country and launch the “Sustainable City” platform. Additionally, a unified digital urbanization platform called “Uy-joy” is being created to consolidate all urban planning processes, a land bank, and project data.

Environmental Sustainability and “Green” Standards

Environmental sustainability is a priority in the modern urbanization process. According to state programs, in “New Uzbekistan” districts, at least 2% of the cost of constructing multi-apartment housing must be allocated to creating green spaces around residential buildings. For large investment projects in Tashkent, it is mandatory that green spaces occupy at least 30% of the area. Housing and construction projects are evaluated and certified according to special “green” standards.

Social Protection and Financing (Mortgage Subsidies)

The acceleration of urbanization must not leave socially vulnerable segments of the population behind in the housing market. To this end, the mortgage subsidy system has been fully automated through the “subsidiya.idm.uz” platform. The system of providing state budget subsidies to cover down payments and interest has been expanded for low-income families, young people under 30, single women in difficult social circumstances, and official labor migrants.

In general, the reforms aimed at improving housing conditions in Uzbekistan are not simply about constructing new buildings — they represent a broad state policy directed at creating a modern urbanization environment that can withstand strong demographic growth, is ecologically clean, have infrastructure, and is comfortable for the population.

The "Uzbekistan 2030" strategy aims to increase the country's gross domestic product to $160 billion and per capita income to $4,000. Achieving this goal solely through the domestic market is not possible; therefore, it is crucial to actively attract foreign investments and increase exports.
The Tashkent International Investment Forum plays a significant role in this effort. In May 2024, the third edition of the forum took place in Tashkent, becoming a significant event for the economy of Uzbekistan and the international investment community. The main objective of the forum was to enhance the inflow of foreign investments and promote economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and other countries.
The forum attracted business representatives, investors, government officials, and international organizations, facilitating dialogue and the signing of major investment agreements. In recent years, Uzbekistan has demonstrated significant growth in attracting investments, and the forum has been an important step in this direction.
In his welcoming speech, the head of state noted that Uzbekistan has attracted over $60 billion in foreign investments in recent years, with approximately $14 billion coming from international financial institutions. These investments have been directed towards social and infrastructure sectors.
The forum has gained incredible popularity, with over 2,500 participants from 93 countries, providing a platform for global dialogue and exchange of investment experiences.
It is important to highlight that the forum garnered attention from international media, with coverage from more than 110 foreign publications in 30 countries, including leading global media outlets such as CNN, Euronews, London Post, and Associated Press.
One of the key events of the forum was the presentation of regional energy projects (the construction of Kambarata-1 HPP and Yavan HPP) to foreign investors. The presentation involved the Prime Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, emphasizing the importance of these projects for the entire region.
As a result of the Tashkent International Investment Forum, agreements were signed totaling $26.6 billion, indicating the high investment attractiveness of Uzbekistan and the success of the forum. For comparison, in 2022, 167 documents were signed at the forum, amounting to $11 billion, demonstrating a significant increase in investment interest in the country.
Specifically, agreements were reached on the implementation of the following major investment projects:
- Saudi Arabian company "Data Volt" will be involved in the construction of urban infrastructure in "New Tashkent" for $1 billion and will establish a "data processing center" based on green technologies for $3 billion.
- Saudi Arabian company "ACWA Power" will implement projects for the construction of a 5 GW wind power plant in the Republic of Karakalpakstan and the creation of 2 GW energy storage devices, with a total investment of $6.2 billion.
- UAE company "Amea Power" will carry out a project to build a 1000 MW wind power plant in the Republic of Karakalpakstan for $1.1 billion.
- "Saudi Tabrid" will undertake the modernization of the heating systems in Nukus, Fergana, and Kuvasay for $750 million.
- Egyptian company "Nile Sugar" will engage in sugar beet cultivation and sugar production in the Jizzakh region for $500 million.
- Chinese company "Shanghai Knud International" will implement a project for the production of textile and sewing products in the Namangan region for $205 million.
- "Wilmar International" (Singapore) will produce food products and confectionery in the Tashkent region for $200 million.
Additionally, agreements were reached with several major global companies, such as "Orascom Investment" (Egypt), "Bonafarm Grup" (Hungary), "Sayar" (USA), "Goldwind," "Sinoma" (China), "Sam Yapi" (Türkiye), "Pasha Development" (Azerbaijan), "Lasselsberger" (Austria), and "Petrosat Chexelsoton" (Iran), for the implementation of new investment projects totaling $6.6 billion.
The event included a rich program of panel sessions, discussions, business breakfasts, and roundtable discussions, focusing on key aspects of economic development. The central theme revolved around the role of the state, investors, and entrepreneurs in supporting small and medium-sized businesses.
During the session on combating corruption, experts emphasized that effective anti-corruption measures are crucial for improving the investment climate. They highlighted that creating a safe and transparent business environment plays a vital role in this process.
"The successful fight against corruption requires a comprehensive approach, including strengthening legislation and increasing the transparency of government actions," stated Akmal Burkhanov, Director of the Anti-Corruption Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
The session on retail trade identified the main challenges and opportunities in the industry. Participants expressed the need for improving tax legislation and simplifying import procedures. They also emphasized the importance of creating conditions for successful adaptation of new brands in the market.
"Thanks to the resolution on reducing customs duties, we have managed to establish fair prices, as in the UK and Kazakhstan," shared Ilya Lyapustin, Sales and Marketing Director of "Tashkent City Mall."
During the business breakfast dedicated to women entrepreneurship, the significant impact of women entrepreneurs on society was emphasized. Speakers presented inspiring examples and strategies for achieving a balance between profitability and social responsibility.
Special attention was given to attracting foreign investments through residency programs.
"In recent years, Uzbekistan has proven itself as an attractive destination for global investors due to its openness to cooperation and prospects in the real estate sector," stated Akram Mukhamatkulov, representative of Henley & Partners.
The roundtable discussion on "Supply Chains and Resilience: Finding Balance in Uncertain Times" addressed the problems and strategies for ensuring the resilience of global supply chains.
"Turkey and Uzbekistan have a strategic partnership, and we can significantly strengthen cooperation by working together," noted Deputy Minister of Trade of Turkey, Sezai Ucharmak.
Experts also emphasized the importance of integrating digital technologies into investment strategies. They highlighted that digitization is not just the future but already a reality, playing a key role in accelerating investment processes and increasing transparency.
The pitch session "IT-PARK Uzbekistan: New Perspectives for Development" presented plans to transform Uzbekistan into a regional hub for information technology by 2030.
Sherzod Shermatov, Minister of Digital Technologies of Uzbekistan, highlighted the significance of recent investments. "Yesterday, we witnessed an important event - the start of the construction of the $5 billion green data center, Data Volt, a major project of direct foreign investment. We are creating a favorable environment for IT companies and launching the 'Zero Risk' program to cover all risks associated with opening and operating offices in Uzbekistan," he noted.
The roundtable discussion on "Connectivity: Reviving the Great Silk Road" brought together international experts and representatives of government bodies to explore opportunities for expanding connections, economic cooperation, and cultural exchange along the ancient Silk Road routes.
The roundtable discussion on "Integrated Urban Planning: Quality Investments, Environmental and Human Comfort" involved leading urban planners, architects, and business representatives discussing approaches to the development of the city of Tashkent. In particular, Vladislav Butenko, Managing Director and Senior Partner at BCG, emphasized the importance of integrating innovative solutions into urban planning to achieve sustainable city development. He stressed the need to consider both economic and social aspects in comprehensive planning, ensuring a balance between them.
The forum played a significant role in attracting investments for various ministries and regions of Uzbekistan. The signed agreements indicate the development of key sectors such as industry, energy, pharmaceuticals, and automotive manufacturing.
One of the major achievements of the forum was the agreement between the Ministry of Digital Technologies, the Ministry of Energy, and IT company Data Volt on the construction of a data center based on green technologies. Experts highlighted the importance of such projects for Uzbekistan. The signing ceremony was attended by Laziz Kudratov, Minister of Investment, Industry, and Trade, and Rajit Nanda, Director of Data Volt.
The third Tashkent International Investment Forum has concluded, but the planned initiatives and signed agreements promise active work in attracting investments and ensuring sustainable development. Uzbekistan has once again confirmed its role as a strategic partner on the international stage, attracting the attention of global investors and contributing to the economic growth of the region.

Tengiz Asanov,
Deputy Head of the Department of the Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade of Uzbekistan

The history of the partnership between Uzbekistan and Georgia provides a compelling example of how two countries, bound neither by alliance commitments nor by historical dependency, have come to recognize each other as genuine strategic partners.

One of the key priorities of Uzbekistan's contemporary foreign policy is the expansion of cooperation with the countries of the South Caucasus. This approach reflects Tashkent's consistent policy of diversifying its external economic relations while strengthening regional connectivity. Within this framework, the South Caucasus is regarded as an important partner capable of contributing to Uzbekistan's sustainable economic growth, expanding the country's transport and logistics opportunities, and enhancing its overall foreign economic potential.

The growing importance of the South Caucasus stems from its role as a natural bridge between Central Asia and Europe. Amid the ongoing transformation of global logistics and the emergence of new transport and economic corridors, this role has become increasingly significant, reinforcing Uzbekistan's interest in practical cooperation with the countries of the region.

Georgia occupies a special place in this strategy due to its considerable transit potential, well-developed transport infrastructure, and favorable conditions for expanding trade, investment, and humanitarian cooperation.

Although diplomatic relations between Uzbekistan and Georgia were established in the early years of independence, they remained overshadowed for many years by other pressing national priorities in both countries. For nearly two decades, bilateral relations developed largely by inertia: annual trade turnover fluctuated between US$30 million and US$50 million, high-level contacts were infrequent, and joint projects remained limited in number.

A turning point came after 2017, when Uzbekistan, under the leadership of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, embarked on a policy of openness and active integration into regional and global economic processes. Within this broader strategy, the South Caucasus emerged as one of Tashkent's important foreign policy priorities. Georgia was among those partners whose bilateral relations required comprehensive reassessment and renewed political attention.

The first high-level dialogue after a fifteen-year hiatus took place in September 2017, when, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, the President of Uzbekistan met with the Prime Minister of Georgia, Giorgi Kvirikashvili. The meeting sent a strong political signal of both countries' commitment to revitalizing bilateral cooperation and laid the groundwork for expanding contacts across multiple levels of government.

In the years that followed, political dialogue steadily intensified. Parliamentary relations were established, regular contacts were launched between the heads of government and the foreign ministries, and annual official meetings between the Prime Ministers of Uzbekistan and Georgia became an established practice.

In 2023, Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Abdulla Aripov paid an official visit to Georgia. In 2025, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze made a reciprocal official visit to Uzbekistan, during which he held talks with the President of Uzbekistan, as well as meetings with the Prime Minister and the leadership of both chambers of the Oliy Majlis.

The steady strengthening of political dialogue has created a solid institutional foundation for the progressive development of Uzbek–Georgian relations. A central role in this process is played by the Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation, whose work focuses on implementing bilateral agreements, eliminating existing barriers, and identifying new avenues for cooperation.

The effectiveness of these institutional mechanisms is reflected in the consistently positive performance of bilateral economic relations, particularly in trade. Over the past nine years, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Georgia has tripled, exceeding US$267 million in 2025. By comparison, bilateral trade amounted to only US$89.1 million in 2017.

The highest level of bilateral trade was recorded in 2024, when trade increased by nearly 50 percent compared to the previous year, reaching a record US$326 million.

Equally noteworthy is that this growth has been driven not only by increasing trade volumes but also by the diversification of its structure. Whereas bilateral trade once consisted of a relatively limited range of commodities, today its product composition has become considerably broader.

Uzbekistan exports industrial goods, including non-ferrous metals, copper wire, rolled metal products, and electrical equipment, alongside food products such as legumes, fruit, and tobacco, as well as chemical products, including polymers. Georgia, in turn, exports food products, beverages, pharmaceuticals, construction materials, and metal products to Uzbekistan.

An important indicator of the expanding trade and economic cooperation has been the growing investment activity of the business communities of the two countries, reflected in the establishment of joint ventures. Today, around 100 enterprises with Georgian capital operate in Uzbekistan, while more than 140 Uzbek companies are active in Georgia. This demonstrates the growing level of mutual trust between business circles, as well as their interest in maintaining a long-term presence in each other’s markets.

The continued positive dynamics of economic cooperation suggest that the two countries have the necessary prerequisites to move beyond a trade-based model toward deeper industrial and investment cooperation. The most promising areas include the textile industry, agriculture and food production, pharmaceuticals, construction, and services, where the economies of both countries possess complementary advantages.

One of the key dimensions of Uzbek–Georgian relations is the expansion of transport and logistics links between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Europe. It is in this area that the interests of the two countries align most naturally.

For Uzbekistan, the use of Georgia’s transport infrastructure to access European markets is of particular importance. The ports of Poti and Batumi are key elements of this logistics chain. For Georgia, in turn, increased cargo flows from Uzbekistan and other countries of the region create opportunities to expand trade ties with Asian states.

According to experts from the Center for the Study of Transport and Logistics Development Problems under the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Uzbekistan, positive dynamics are also observed in bilateral freight transportation. By the end of 2025, the total volume of cargo transportation between Uzbekistan and Georgia reached 146.8 thousand tons. Export shipments increased by 27 percent to 53.4 thousand tons, while import shipments rose by 26 percent to 71.5 thousand tons.

In this context, the development of the Middle Corridor is gaining particular importance. Today, it is regarded as one of Eurasia’s most promising transport arteries, opening new opportunities for route diversification and the growth of international trade. Over the past five years alone, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade cargo transportation along this route has doubled, reaching 1.2 million tons by the end of 2025.

At the same time, cooperation between Uzbekistan and Georgia in this field is moving beyond the basic use of existing transport infrastructure toward the creation of a dedicated logistics base. A vivid example is Uzbekistan’s construction of a multifunctional logistics terminal in the Poti Free Industrial Zone. The project provides for the creation of a modern warehouse complex covering around 30 hectares and designed to handle various categories of cargo, including containerized, general, bulk, and perishable goods.

The implementation of this project will create an important logistics hub for ensuring the supply of Uzbek products to European markets. At the same time, the terminal will be used to organize reverse cargo flows, thereby contributing to increased trade not only between Uzbekistan and Georgia, but also with other Central Asian states.

It is transport and logistics partnership that has the greatest potential to become the main driver of Uzbek–Georgian relations in the coming years. While at this stage the parties are focused on trade and infrastructure modernization, in the long term the goal is to create a full-fledged economic corridor linking Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and European markets.

In parallel with the development of these large-scale routes, people-to-people ties are also strengthening. In recent years, mutual interest among citizens of the two countries in tourist travel has grown noticeably. Thanks to direct flights from Tashkent to Tbilisi and Batumi, operated 13 times per week, the number of Uzbek tourists visiting Georgia has been steadily increasing, exceeding 21.5 thousand people in 2025.

For its part, Uzbekistan is attracting growing interest among Georgian travelers wishing to discover the country’s unique cultural heritage, including Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva, and other ancient cities. Over the past seven years, the tourist flow from Georgia to Uzbekistan has increased more than 2.5 times — from 3 thousand people in 2019 to 6.8 thousand people in 2025.

Thus, relations between Uzbekistan and Georgia are currently at a stage of steady and progressive development. Whereas ten years ago bilateral interaction was based mainly on diplomatic contacts and limited trade ties, today, as we can see, a new format of partnership is taking shape, covering the political, economic, transport, and humanitarian spheres.

Of particular importance is the fact that this expansion of cooperation is taking place against the backdrop of major changes in the international economy and global logistics. As new transport routes between Asia and Europe are being formed, Uzbekistan and Georgia are objectively becoming important elements of a single space of connectivity.

The realization of this potential in the medium term will depend on the readiness of both sides to support political will with genuine economic interest. Such an approach will give new practical substance to the partnership between Uzbekistan and Georgia and will make it possible to build a sustainable model of cooperation based on pragmatism, mutual trust, and a shared commitment to sustainable development.

Miraziz Mirumarov
Leading Research Fellow
Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies
under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Central and South Asia are increasingly facing the same reality: climate risks are no longer a distant forecast. Droughts, water scarcity, heatwaves, land degradation, dust storms, floods, and pressure on water, food and energy security are already affecting economies, public health, infrastructure, and the resilience of entire regions.

This is why the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia is of particular significance. The second meeting is organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in partnership with the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. This format reflects Uzbekistan’s consistent foreign policy direction aimed at strengthening trust, open dialogue, and sustainable connectivity between the regions.

While the first meeting introduced the Termez Dialogue as a platform for bringing the two regions closer together, the new agenda takes the next step: moving from a discussion of connectivity to practical mechanisms for joint climate adaptation and stronger environmental resilience. Its task is to move from conceptual discussions to concrete priorities and practical mechanisms, with joint adaptation to climate change identified among the key areas of cooperation.

Climate as a New Test of Connectivity

Climate change shows how closely water, food, energy, transport, health, and ecosystems are linked. When water availability declines, the impact is not limited to agriculture. It also affects hydropower, food prices, migration, employment, soil conditions, and even regional stability. As extreme heat becomes more frequent, cities, transport systems, healthcare systems, and labour productivity all come under pressure.

The Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), prepared as part of the Sixth Assessment Cycle, emphasizes that adaptation is already taking place in all regions of the world, but the gap between what is needed and what is being done remains and will continue to grow at the current pace of action. The IPCC also underlines that the most effective responses are not isolated measures, but integrated solutions that connect water management, agriculture, infrastructure, social protection, ecosystems, and population needs.

This is particularly important for Central and South Asia. Both regions depend on mountain watersheds, irrigated agriculture, the resilience of rural areas, as well as stable and secure energy supply and the cross-border movement of goods and people. Climate adaptation, therefore, cannot remain solely a matter of national policy. It must become part of interregional cooperation.

Uzbekistan: The Data Confirm the Urgency of Action

Uzbekistan’s Fourth National Communication under the UNFCCC identifies the country as among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in Central Asia and Eurasia. This vulnerability is linked to accelerated temperature rise, growing water scarcity, glacier retreat, and the increasing frequency of extreme hydrometeorological events.

Water remains an especially sensitive factor. Uzbekistan’s water resources belong to the Aral Sea basin, while the main surface runoff of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers is formed outside the country. This means that Uzbekistan’s climate resilience is directly linked to the quality of regional and interregional cooperation. Water, data, forecasts, infrastructure, and trust become part of one security system.

Cities as a New Frontline of Climate Adaptation

The climate agenda is also becoming increasingly connected with the future of cities. Speaking at the Leaders’ Summit of the 13th session of the World Urban Forum in Baku, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted that, over the next 15 years, the country’s population is expected to grow from 38 to 50 million people, while the urbanization rate is projected to rise from 51% to 65%.

For Uzbekistan, this is not only a demographic trend but also a climate challenge. Urban growth increases pressure on water, energy, transport, housing, air quality, and green spaces. Therefore, plans for sustainable urbanization — including the development of “green”, “smart”, “safe”, and “15-minute” cities, the expansion of urban greenery, and the introduction of green city principles — are directly linked to climate adaptation.

In this context, the Termez Dialogue can become a platform for exchanging experience not only on water and agriculture, but also on climate-resilient urban development: from reducing the urban heat island effect and saving water to clean transport, digital air quality monitoring, and designing new districts with climate risks in mind.

A New Emphasis: Adaptation as a Practical Development Agenda

The Termez Dialogue can offer an important new approach: to view adaptation not as a response to crises, but as an investment in sustainable development. This changes the very language of climate policy.

Adaptation is not only about building protective infrastructure or responding to emergencies. It is about more accurate forecasting of droughts and floods and data exchange between countries. It is about water-saving agriculture, the modernization of canals, pumping stations, and urban infrastructure. It is about restoring degraded lands and ecosystems. It is about preparing farmers, engineers, hydrologists, energy specialists, and local authorities to operate under new climate conditions.

This is why the Concept of the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue emphasizes the consolidation of efforts by states and partners to develop coordinated and mutually reinforcing approaches to climate adaptation and to reducing the socio-economic consequences of climate and environmental risks.

Why Central and South Asia Must Adapt Together

Climate risks do not recognize borders. Drought in one part of the region can affect food markets in another. Glacier retreat changes river regimes far beyond mountain areas. Dust storms, heatwaves, and extreme rainfall can affect several countries at once. Joint adaptation is therefore a practical necessity.

The IPCC stresses that around 3.3 to 3.6 billion people worldwide live in conditions of high vulnerability to climate change. It also emphasizes that the vulnerability of people and ecosystems is interconnected: the degradation of ecosystems increases risks for people, while social vulnerability reduces societies’ ability to adapt.

For Central and South Asia, this means that resilience must be built across several dimensions at once: water, food, energy, environment, and society. Food and environmental security cannot be strengthened without water. Infrastructure cannot be modernized without climate forecasts. Risks cannot be reduced without trust and information exchange.

Termez as a Place for Climate Partnership

The choice of Termez has both historical and practical significance. Termez is Uzbekistan’s southern gateway and a natural bridge between Central and South Asia. In today’s conditions, this role acquires new meaning: the city is becoming a symbol not only of transport and trade connectivity, but also of climate partnership.

Afghanistan has a particularly important role. The idea of the Termez Dialogue implies the need for the gradual integration of Afghanistan into regional economic, transport, humanitarian, and climate processes with the support of the international community. In the climate agenda, this is especially meaningful: without Afghanistan’s participation, it is impossible to build genuinely sustainable connectivity between Central and South Asia.

What the Termez Dialogue Can Deliver

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform for launching several practical areas of cooperation.

First, the exchange of climate and hydrological data, including forecasts of droughts, floods, glacier changes, and dust storms.

Second, the joint promotion of early warning systems, so that countries can prepare in advance for extreme weather events.

Third, the development of climate-resilient agriculture: water-saving technologies, drought-resistant crops, digital services for farmers, and the restoration of pastures and soils.

Fourth, ecosystem-based adaptation — the restoration of forests, wetlands, mountain and desert ecosystems that themselves serve as natural protection against climate risks.

Fifth, climate-resilient infrastructure — from transport corridors and logistics centres to energy facilities and rapidly growing cities.

From a Common Challenge to Shared Resilience

The main value of the Termez Dialogue is that it allows the climate agenda to be discussed not in the language of alarm, but in the language of joint solutions. Central and South Asia can not only exchange risk assessments, but also create common adaptation mechanisms: from scientific networks and pilot projects to investment programmes and regional standards for resilient infrastructure.

The new climate agenda of the Termez Dialogue is part of the larger idea of connectivity. Genuine connectivity is not only about roads, trade, and energy corridors. It is also about the capacity of countries to jointly protect ecosystems, human health, and the future of coming generations. The Termez Dialogue can become the space where Central and South Asia move from recognizing their shared vulnerability to building shared resilience.

D.R. Ziganshina, SIC ICWC | 20 May 2026

On November 15, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev chaired a meeting on issues of uninterrupted energy supply to the population and sectors of the economy, improving efficiency at enterprises in the sphere.

The relevant tasks were identified at a video conference held on June 10. Today, the responsible persons reported on the work accomplished in fulfillment of these tasks and preparations for the autumn-winter season.

It was noted that gas is supplied in volumes commensurate with the growing demand of the population and sectors of the economy. As a result of the modernization of industries and increasing the energy efficiency of the economy, there is a decrease in losses. For example, in recent years, gas consumption for the production of industrial products has decreased by 1.6 times.

There is still a lot of work ahead. It is necessary to ensure a stable supply of energy to the population in the current season and subsequent years, and prepare a sufficient reserve for this.

These issues were discussed in the context of industries at the meeting.

According to calculations, 21 billion cubic meters of gas will be supplied to consumers this year during the winter season. If the air temperature drops sharply, the population's demand will increase even more. The responsible persons outlined a plan of action in such a situation by month and by district.

A separate reserve is provided for uninterrupted power supply to social institutions and enterprises. A system has been created for the targeted supply of natural gas to thermal power plants, chemical and metallurgical enterprises, as well as gas filling stations.

It was pointed out that it is necessary to resolutely continue the work started on accounting and control of gas in industries and further reduce losses. The task has been set to implement the identified gas saving opportunities in Andijan, Navoi and Tashkent regions, as well as other regions.

The Head of State gave instructions to responsible persons on organizing work at the level of districts and mahallas, solving issues related to energy supply directly on the ground, coordinating demand and consumption, and preventing interruptions.

The meeting also touched upon the processes of transformation in the gas sector. It was decided that industry enterprises will enter the international financial market and independently raise funds for modernization.

Digitalization and public-private partnerships offer the greatest opportunities in updating and regulating gas supply networks. In this regard, proposals were considered to attract private operators to the industry.

The President instructed to reduce the costs in the context of each industry and enterprises, optimize costs and accelerate the transformation process. The importance of expanding exploration activities with the involvement of leading foreign companies was emphasized.

Today, during a meeting with journalists, Azizbek Urunov, Special Representative of the President of Uzbekistan on WTO issues, answered questions from a correspondent of Dunyo Information Agency:

-How does WTO membership align with the “Uzbekistan - 2030” strategy?

-It fully aligns with it. Uzbekistan’s accession process to the World Trade Organization effectively began in the early days of the large-scale reforms launched under the leadership of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in 2017. In the initial years, the primary focus was placed on urgent and systemic economic reforms.

These included the liberalization of currency policy, a comprehensive revision of foreign trade policy and a significant reduction and simplification of import tariffs, which helped strengthen competition in the economy and the domestic market.

The active phase of WTO accession negotiations began in 2020. Prior to that, over a period of three to four years, the country deliberately prepared its economy and regulatory framework to meet WTO requirements. A frequently asked question is why the accession process has taken so long, given that Uzbekistan submitted its application back in 1994. Meaningful progress only began after 2020, as before that time the economy and its regulatory mechanisms objectively did not meet WTO standards.

Before 2016, foreign trade was subject to strict regulation. For example, there was a practice of approving a limited list of enterprises authorized to export, particularly in the agricultural sector. The main participants in foreign economic activity were state structures and foreign trade companies affiliated with sectoral ministries.

However, WTO principles are based on equal conditions for all market participants and non-discriminatory access to foreign trade activities. That is why, as part of the reforms, foreign trade policy was comprehensively revised and liberalized. Today, any enterprise has the right to engage in foreign economic activity.

This was not merely an issue of currency convertibility, but rather a set of comprehensive reforms of the entire foreign trade regulatory system, including the elimination of exclusive rights held by state enterprises and the creation of a competitive environment.

I believe it is no secret that the WTO accession process is under the personal oversight of the President of the country. Over the past two to three years, a qualitative breakthrough has been achieved and today Uzbekistan is at the final stage of the negotiation process.

– What long-term national interests does Uzbekistan aim to protect through its accession to the WTO?

As a developing country, Uzbekistan, in accordance with WTO agreements, retains the right to protect certain sectors of the economy in the event of specific difficulties. At the same time, it is important to remember that the fundamental goals of the WTO are to improve the welfare of the population, create jobs and ensure sustainable economic development for member countries.

From a strategic perspective, WTO membership serves two key objectives for Uzbekistan.

The first is exports. Without an active export policy and integration into global value chains, achieving long-term and sustainable economic growth is virtually impossible. Relying solely on the domestic market has inherent limitations. As the domestic market becomes saturated, growth potential diminishes and further development is only possible through expanding presence in foreign markets.

The second objective is investment, primarily quality investment. It is important not only to attract capital but also to ensure its technological, institutional and managerial value. WTO membership sends an international signal that the country’s economy operates under transparent, predictable and investor-friendly rules.

This creates additional conditions for the development of industry and the service sector. Today, about half of Uzbekistan’s GDP is generated by the services sector, indicating its enormous potential for further growth.

Furthermore, Uzbekistan’s geographic location offers significant opportunities. The country is surrounded by dynamically developing markets such as China, the European Union, the Middle East, and India. The active economic development of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and other countries generates steady demand for agricultural and industrial products as well as services. This creates favorable conditions for integrating Uzbekistan into global value chains.

– Is it already possible today - at least approximately, in monetary terms - to estimate the total benefit to Uzbek businesses from the removal of tariff regulations within the framework of Uzbekistan’s accession to the World Trade Organization?

– Ten years ago, Uzbekistan’s GDP was around USD 50 billion. By the end of 2025, it had reached approximately USD 147 billion.

Whereas an increase of, say, 5 billion dollars used to represent about 10 percent of GDP, today it accounts for only around 3 percent. Therefore, it is more important to talk not about absolute figures, but about the additional momentum for economic growth.

According to World Bank estimates, WTO membership could provide an additional GDP growth of roughly 17 percent over the next 5–7 years. In the longer term, international studies indicate that developing countries that are WTO members typically achieve an extra 1–1.5 percent GDP growth per year compared with non-member states.

Even a 1 percent additional growth per year, accumulated over 5, 10, or 15 years, can significantly transform a country’s economy.

– What specific instruments and legal mechanisms of WTO rules will work to protect the interests of Uzbekistan and its businesses?

– First and foremost, this concerns the protection of export interests. Today, there are often situations where partners are willing to purchase our raw materials but react negatively to shipments of processed products with high added value. In such cases, discriminatory measures aimed at limiting our exports may be applied.

WTO membership will allow Uzbekistan to challenge such actions in Geneva through the dispute settlement mechanisms and on a bilateral basis, relying on the universal principles of the WTO. This provides protection against unilateral and unjustified trade restrictions.

On the domestic market, the key instruments will be so-called trade remedies - anti-dumping, countervailing and safeguard measures. Currently, draft laws regulating these mechanisms are being developed in Uzbekistan.

The WTO provides developing countries with a longer time frame for applying protective measures: up to eight years and under special conditions - up to ten years. These instruments allow temporary protection for industries under pressure from imports, provided there is evidence of serious economic harm.

Anti-dumping measures are particularly important. Dumping is usually used to push competitors out of the market, followed by the establishment of monopoly prices. WTO legislation allows countries to effectively counteract such practices.

Alongside legislative development, Uzbekistan is preparing national specialists with the support of international experts. Their task is to ensure the competent and professional application of these mechanisms in practice, in the interests of fair competition and the protection of national businesses.

Dunyo IA

Tashkent

Akramjon Nematov, First Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan (ISRS), in an analysis for Dunyo IA on the results of the April 24 meeting chaired by the Head of State, emphasized that the country's socio-economic development results for the first quarter of 2026 confirm: the nation has not only adapted to global turbulence but has also developed a reliable internal immunity to external shocks.

According to him, the achieved figures indicate that the national economy has reached a qualitatively new level of dynamic development. Despite unprecedented global market volatility, the disruption of global supply chains, and mounting inflationary pressures, Uzbekistan recorded an impressive GDP growth of 8.7%, significantly exceeding the 6.8% result from the same period last year.

Such a significant breakthrough, the expert is convinced, has been a direct result of the well-considered and consistent strategy of the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, aimed at the fundamental transformation of all spheres of public life. During this challenging period, the state assumed not merely the role of a regulator but that of an active catalyst for modernization: the industrial sector grew by 8%, compared with 4.1% in 2025, while the services sector, which has become the engine of renewal, surged by 16.1%. Against the backdrop of global instability, Uzbekistan, for the first time on an annual basis, managed to curb inflation, reducing it from 10.6% in March 2025 to 7.1% in the current period, thereby opening new horizons for long-term investment planning.

The country’s leadership has made a significant contribution, reflected in unprecedented financial support for entrepreneurship. In 2026, 140 trillion UZS are being allocated for these purposes through the banking system, 30% more than last year. Targeted assistance to mahallas in the first quarter alone amounted to 3.6 trillion UZS, a 25% increase, enabling local budgets to generate an additional 2.2 trillion UZS in revenue.

As the expert noted, during the critical analysis, the Head of State emphasized that the quantitative records achieved must serve as a foundation for significant structural improvements in the economy, necessitating a transition to an advanced, innovative development model. One of the central tasks identified is a sharp increase in labour productivity, which should rise by at least 10-15% through the integration of modern technologies and management standards. The state aims to fully move away from the raw-materials-exporter model toward the creation of high-tech regional value chains, engaging more than 40 global brands as strategic partners.

Particular attention is being paid to the efficiency of project management. With a record volume of foreign investment in the quarter totalling USD 13.7 billion, 1.6 times higher than last year, the focus is shifting toward precise monitoring of returns. The President has decided to elevate the economy to a new international level: as early as next month, 30% of state assets worth USD 2.4 billion will be listed on international stock markets. This has become possible due to the transfer of management of 13 strategic enterprises of the National Investment Fund to the reputable company Franklin Templeton. At the same time, the state is accelerating reform of the energy framework, allocating USD 50 million for concessional lending to support businesses in transitioning to renewable energy sources, and creating a digital logistics infrastructure capable of increasing exports through electronic platforms, raising the target to USD 700 million.

At the same time, expert analysis shows that external challenges are not only persisting but also intensifying significantly: the continued rise in global energy prices and the increasing complexity of global logistics are creating tangible pressure on domestic production costs and competitiveness.

Under current conditions, activities in the external sphere must be maximally synchronized with domestic reforms. This implies a focus on facilitating technology transfer, attracting smart capital into artificial intelligence, and diversifying transport corridors to strengthen Uzbekistan’s status as a central link in regional connectivity. The steady acceleration of exports and the systematic removal of barriers for high-value-added products today require deep coordination between the state and the private sector, as well as the mobilization of all available resources to achieve qualitative results, the expert believes.

To maintain current high growth rates and reach new milestones, it is necessary, as the President emphasized, to radically increase the flexibility of managerial decision-making and execution discipline at the local level. It is important to transform quantitative growth into the structural quality of the economy, to ensure development through a multiple increase in productivity and the creation of high added value in key sectors.

The balanced and proactive foreign policy of the country’s leader creates the necessary zone of stability at the regional level. However, it is precisely the internal mobilization of the public administration, an uncompromising focus on innovation, and the efficiency of management that are today the decisive conditions for enabling Uzbekistan to successfully transform global pressure into new “windows of opportunity” for long-term national prosperity.

Dunyo IA

At the invitation of President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Mongolia Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh will pay a state visit to our country on June 23-26.

In accordance with the program of the high-ranking guest's stay, it is envisaged to hold high-level talks in Tashkent, during which issues of further expansion and strengthening of Uzbek-Mongolian relations of friendship and multifaceted cooperation will be considered.

In particular, the agenda includes plans to develop constructive political dialogue and inter-parliamentary contacts, increase bilateral trade turnover, implement cooperation projects in mining, agriculture, livestock, light industry, healthcare, transport, logistics and other areas. Joint measures aimed at boosting cultural, humanitarian and tourist ties will also be discussed. There will be an exchange of views on international issues.

A package of intergovernmental and interdepartmental documents will be signed following the results of the summit.

As part of the program of the state visit, the leaders of the two countries will meet with representatives of leading companies and business circles, and a number of other bilateral events will be held.

Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh will also visit Khiva, where he will familiarize himself with the rich cultural and historical heritage of our people.

1. Introduction

Central and South Asia form one of Eurasia’s most significant geographic junctions. Central Asia connects the continent’s east–west and north–south routes, while South Asia contains one of the world’s largest population bases and consumer markets. Taken together, the countries of the two subregions have a population of more than 2 billion people; however, their direct economic interaction remains below its potential level.

The scale of the potential market is confirmed by the figures: in 2024, the population of South Asia was approximately 1.68 billion people, while the region’s combined GDP was about US$4.5 trillion. At the same time, the economy of the five Central Asian countries in 2024 amounted to approximately US$489 billion. However, the level of interregional integration remains low: even within South Asia, intraregional trade is estimated at around 5% of total trade turnover, which is significantly lower than the ASEAN figure^[1][2][3].

This is evident in trade statistics: Central Asia’s main trade flows continue to be oriented toward Russia, China, the European Union, Türkiye, and the Middle East, while trade with South Asia occupies a comparatively limited niche.

The underused potential is explained not by a lack of demand, but by structural constraints. Between the two subregions, there are mountain barriers, complex cross-border routes, differing levels of integration into international supply chains, non-uniform customs and technical procedures, as well as the Afghanistan factor, which is simultaneously the shortest connecting link and the most sensitive element of the regional architecture. Therefore, the issue of connectivity has not only commercial but also strategic significance.

The restoration of economic ties between Central and South Asia should not be viewed as a romanticized return to historical routes. In modern conditions, it is a matter of competitiveness, supply-chain security, energy resilience, and diversification of foreign economic directions. For the countries of Central Asia, the southern route opens shorter access to the ports of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. For the countries of South Asia, it creates an opportunity to gain access to energy resources, food products, industrial goods, and new markets in Eurasia.

Uzbekistan occupies a special place in this logic. It is located in the central part of the region, borders all Central Asian states and Afghanistan, and therefore is capable of forming a link between the internal markets of Central Asia and the southern direction. At the same time, the role of a connector state means more than the transit of goods. It includes the coordination of infrastructure projects, the development of logistics services, the improvement of institutional quality, the creation of an analytical basis for decision-making, and the involvement of the private sector in interregional projects.

2. Historical and geographical preconditions for connectivity

The historical connection between Central and South Asia was formed long before the emergence of modern state borders. The cities of Transoxiana, Khorasan, Bactria, and northern India were part of a network of caravan routes and exchanges of artisanal goods, knowledge, religious traditions, and financial practices. Samarkand, Bukhara, Balkh, Merv, Kabul, Peshawar, and Lahore, in different periods, served as trade and cultural hubs linking the Eurasian space.

However, historical connectedness does not automatically translate into economic integration today. Modern supply chains depend on railways, highways, ports, energy networks, digital cargo-tracking systems, insurance, banking settlements, and predictable rules. Where even one of these elements is absent, transit becomes expensive, slow, and risky.

The geography of the region creates both incentives and constraints. On the one hand, the distance from Uzbekistan’s southern borders to northern Afghanistan is relatively short, and the route through Afghanistan is potentially the shortest overland path from Central Asia to Pakistan and onward to the ports of the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, mountain ranges, differences in railway gauge, the limited capacity of border infrastructure, security issues, and insufficient standardization of procedures increase the cost of projects.

Uzbekistan’s geographical role has not only qualitative but also measurable significance: the country is one of only two double-landlocked states in the world and, at the same time, the only state bordering all four other Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan. In this context, the Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway project, with a length of approximately 573 km, acquires systemic importance, since it could reduce the time and cost of transportation toward Pakistan’s ports by roughly 30%^[4].

Therefore, connectivity should be understood more broadly than the physical connection of two points on a map. In the modern economy, it includes four dimensions. The first is infrastructural: roads, railways, terminals, ports, and energy networks. The second is institutional: customs, tariffs, standards, sanitary and phytosanitary rules, permits, and transit guarantees. The third is commercial: demand, purchasing power, contracts, logistics companies, insurance, and banking channels. The fourth is social and humanitarian: education, labor skills, tourism, medical ties, and research cooperation.

This approach helps avoid oversimplification. Even the shortest road will not become a sustainable corridor unless it is supported by a reliable legal environment, competitive tariffs, financial guarantees, and coordination among states.

3. Current state of trade and economic cooperation

Trade and economic ties between Central and South Asia are developing, but their scale still does not correspond to the size of the markets. Trade between Central Asian countries and India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan remains relatively modest compared with their trade with China, Russia, the European Union, Türkiye, and countries of the Middle East.

Central Asia supplies, or could potentially expand supplies to South Asia, in such areas as agricultural products, grain, fruit and vegetable products, textiles, fertilizers, energy goods, certain types of metals, and industrial raw materials. South Asia, primarily India and Pakistan, holds competitive positions in pharmaceuticals, medical goods, IT services, equipment, textile products, processed food products, and consumer goods.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been strengthening the southern direction of its foreign economic policy. Trade ties with India and Pakistan are developing through pharmaceuticals, textiles, food products, services, logistics, and investment projects. Uzbekistan’s foreign trade in the southern direction is already growing, but it still occupies a limited place in the overall structure of foreign trade. The largest trade flows with South Asian countries are with Afghanistan and India. However, the very fact that certain bilateral flows are growing does not solve the main problem: interregional trade remains fragmented. In order to turn it into a sustainable market, it is necessary to reduce transaction costs, ensure the predictability of transit, make standards comparable, and develop business services.

The issue of trade data is especially important. Mutual trade is often assessed using different sources, while the statistics of exporting countries and importing countries may diverge. To develop effective policy, a regularly updated data panel is needed, broken down by corridors, types of cargo, border-crossing times, transportation costs, return loads, the number of permits, and the actual use of preferential regimes. Without such a database, regional initiatives risk remaining merely declaratory.

4. Transport and logistics infrastructure as the basis of connectivity

Transport infrastructure is the material foundation for the rapprochement of Central and South Asia. At the same time, it is more accurate to speak not of a single route, but of a portfolio of corridors. Relying on only one route increases the vulnerability of the entire system. A diversified network of routes through Afghanistan, Iran, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and existing Eurasian directions creates redundancy, reduces risks, and strengthens the negotiating position of shippers.

The key project in the southern direction remains the trans-Afghan railway corridor Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar. Its strategic value lies in its potential to connect Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries with Pakistan’s ports, including Karachi, Qasim, and Gwadar. If implemented, such a corridor could reduce the distance and delivery time for certain types of cargo. However, the project requires the resolution of several complex issues: financing, security, technical parameters, railway gauge compatibility, the operating model, tariffs, and the distribution of risks among participants.

The Termez–Hairatan hub in Uzbekistan has particular significance. It is the closest entry point from Uzbekistan into Afghanistan and is already used as a logistics, humanitarian, and trade channel. The development of terminals, warehouses, customs capacities, multimodal transport services, and digital cargo-control systems could turn this hub into a stable anchor point for interregional trade.

Alongside the trans-Afghan route, the route through Iran is also important. For India, Central Asia, and Afghanistan, the Chabahar port is of particular significance, as are its links with the International North–South Transport Corridor and the Ashgabat Agreement. This option does not replace the trans-Afghan route, but it increases the resilience of the trade system. Events of recent years have shown that the closure or restriction of individual routes quickly increases the importance of alternative pathways through Iran and the countries of Central Asia.

Road corridors remain a necessary complement to railways. They are especially important for perishable products, small consignments, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and high-value-added goods. In this area, the key factors are not only roads, but also border procedures, the permit system for carriers, weight control, insurance, the safety of parking areas, and access to backhaul cargo.

The development of air connectivity plays a separate role. Direct flights between Tashkent, Samarkand, Almaty, Astana, Delhi, Mumbai, Lahore, and other cities do not create mass freight logistics, but they reduce barriers to business travel, tourism, education, medical services, and managerial oversight of investment projects. For modern business, such mobility is not a secondary factor, but a systemic one.

5. Energy partnership: from project-based logic to a regional market

Energy is one of the most obvious areas of complementarity between Central and South Asia. The Central Asian countries possess significant resources in natural gas, hydropower, solar power, and wind generation. South Asia, primarily Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, faces high energy demand, seasonal consumption peaks, and the need for a more reliable supply structure.

The most advanced interregional project in the electricity sector is CASA-1000. According to World Bank materials, the project is intended to ensure the transmission of up to 1,300 MW of surplus summer electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The project also provides for high-voltage transmission infrastructure, including power transmission lines and converter stations. Its significance goes beyond the energy sector: it demonstrates the possibility of contract-based electricity trade between the subregions with the participation of international financial institutions.

In the gas sector, the best-known project is TAPI: Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India. Its planned logic is straightforward: Turkmen gas is expected to flow through Afghanistan to the energy-deficient markets of South Asia. Published descriptions of the project usually indicate a length of approximately 1,800 km and a designed capacity of up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. However, TAPI remains a complex project with a high dependence on security, financing, long-term contracts, payment guarantees, and political coordination among the participants.

CASA-1000 has not only political but also measurable infrastructural significance: the project cost is estimated at approximately US$1.2 billion, while the designed transmission capacity is 1,300 MW. The Kyrgyz component provides for around 456 km of 500 kV power transmission lines. This makes it possible to view CASA-1000 as the first major example of contract-based interregional electricity trade between Central and South Asia^[5][6].

The new energy agenda includes not only the export of fuel and electricity, but also the development of low-carbon solutions. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are expanding projects in solar, wind, and hydropower, while also modernizing their grids. In the long term, South Asia could become a market for seasonal electricity and energy services from Central Asia. However, this requires rules for cross-border trade, compatible dispatch mechanisms, commercial guarantees, transparent tariffs, and investment in grid resilience.

Energy cooperation must take into account climate and water-related factors. In Central Asia, hydropower is closely linked to irrigation and water resource management. In South Asia, electricity demand depends on temperature peaks, urbanization, and industrial growth. Therefore, energy projects should be accompanied by mechanisms for climate adaptation, forecasting water availability, improving energy efficiency, and developing energy storage systems.

6. Investment cooperation and business ties

Investment cooperation between Central and South Asia is still developing on a case-by-case basis, but it has significant potential. Unlike trade in raw materials, investment requires a higher level of trust, legal certainty, protection of property rights, clear tax regimes, access to foreign-exchange settlements, and high-quality business information.

The most promising areas include pharmaceuticals, medical services, agro-processing, textiles, logistics, warehouse infrastructure, IT services, education, tourism, financial technologies, renewable energy, and the production of components for infrastructure projects. South Asian companies have strong competencies in IT, pharmaceuticals, and services, while Central Asia offers access to raw materials, industrial sites, growing domestic markets, and transit opportunities.

An important task is to move from one-off business contacts to a systematic investment pipeline. This requires project catalogues, clear requirements for investors, standardized public-private partnership models, dispute-resolution mechanisms, insurance against political and commercial risks, and joint workforce training programs.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are of particular importance. Large infrastructure projects create the foundation, but it is small and medium-sized businesses that fill corridors with real goods and services. For them, access to information, affordable logistics services, digital marketplaces, simplified payments, standardized documents, and support in entering a new market are critical.

Development institutions and international financial organizations can play a catalytic role. Their participation reduces risks, improves the quality of project preparation, and disciplines the participants. However, external financing does not replace national reforms. Without clear rules, transparent statistics, and effective courts, even concessional loans will not create a sustainable flow of investment.

7. The strategic role of Uzbekistan as a connector state

Uzbekistan possesses a unique set of preconditions for playing the role of a connector state. It is located at the center of Central Asia, borders all the countries of the region as well as Afghanistan, and is also a major demographic and industrial market. For a country without access to the sea, the development of external corridors is not an optional task, but a condition for long-term competitiveness.

Uzbekistan’s role is not limited to transit. A transit country earns revenue from the movement of goods, but a connector state shapes rules, services, trust, and the institutional environment. This means developing multimodal hubs, creating logistics centers, digitalizing customs procedures, expanding railway and road links, training personnel, attracting banks and insurance organizations, and providing analytical support for projects.

The southern direction strengthens Uzbekistan’s foreign economic diversification. It complements the country’s already existing links in the northern, eastern, and western directions. At the same time, the diversification of routes reduces dependence on individual markets and transit pathways, which is especially important amid instability in global trade, changes in tariff policy, and geopolitical restrictions.

Termez occupies a special place in this strategy. It can serve as a border logistics center, a platform for trade with Afghanistan, a hub of humanitarian and commercial infrastructure, and a symbolic space for discussing connectivity between Central and South Asia. To turn this role into a sustainable result, investment is needed in terminals, railway approaches, warehouse capacity, services for carriers, and a system for analyzing cargo flows.

Uzbekistan’s strength also lies in its ability to put forward multilateral initiatives. Interregional connectivity cannot be implemented through bilateral agreements alone. It requires the alignment of interests among the countries of Central Asia, the countries of South Asia, Afghanistan, international financial institutions, business, and the expert community. In this sphere, Uzbekistan can act as a coordinator of the agenda and a provider of analytical solutions.

8. Key barriers and ways to overcome them

The first barrier is incomplete infrastructure. Many corridors exist in the form of project concepts or partially functioning routes. To transform them into commercially sustainable directions, technical and economic feasibility studies, agreed tariffs, clear sources of financing, unified operational models, and transparent risk allocation are required.

The second barrier is security and the predictability of transit. For business, what matters is not only the length of the route, but also the likelihood of delays, losses, border closures, changes in rules, and additional payments. Therefore, transport policy should include insurance mechanisms, security standards, corridor monitoring, crisis protocols, and regular information exchange among government agencies.

The third barrier is administrative fragmentation. Different documents, uncoordinated customs procedures, weak advance declaration, the absence of mutual recognition of certain certificates, and limited digital interoperability increase the cost of trade. The solution lies in the transition to electronic transport documents, the expansion of the single-window principle, the introduction of risk-based control, and the coordination of technical standards.

The scale of the financial challenge can be assessed through the example of CAREC: in 2021–2024, transport investment under the program amounted to US$8.61 billion, with a significant share of financing provided by international partners. This shows that infrastructure corridors require not only a political decision, but also a sustainable financial architecture^[7][8].

Administrative barriers have a measurable expression. According to CAREC monitoring, in 2022, the average border-crossing time on road corridors was 9.9 hours, while on railway corridors it was 40.6 hours. This confirms that the digitalization of documents, advance declaration, and risk-based control can produce an effect even without the immediate construction of new arterial routes.

The fourth barrier is financial constraints. Infrastructure projects require large capital investments and have long payback periods. A combination of budget funds, loans from international financial organizations, public-private partnerships, guarantees, project financing, and blended-finance mechanisms is needed. At the same time, each project must undergo an assessment of commercial viability, not only political attractiveness.

The fifth barrier is the lack of market information. Companies often do not know potential partners, market requirements, logistics tariffs, certification rules, or available financial instruments. This barrier can be reduced through digital trade platforms, business missions, sectoral catalogues, regular exhibitions, analytical reviews, and consulting centers under chambers of commerce and industry.

The sixth barrier is climate and resource-related risks. Mountainous areas, droughts, floods, changes in glacial runoff, and extreme weather events affect roads, energy, and agriculture. New corridors should be designed with climate resilience in mind, while energy projects should take into account the water balance and the seasonality of demand.

Practical priorities through 2030

9. The Termez Dialogue as an institutional foundation for cooperation

The Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia can become an important institutional platform for coordinating the interregional agenda. In 2025, the first dialogue was held in Termez, dedicated to the formation of a shared space of peace, friendship, and prosperity. The very choice of Termez emphasizes the city’s practical role as Uzbekistan’s southern hub and as a symbolic point of connection with Afghanistan and South Asia.

The effectiveness of such a format will depend on whether it can move from general statements to the management of a project-based agenda. For this purpose, it would be advisable to structure the dialogue around four permanent tracks: transport and logistics, trade and standards, energy and climate, and investment and human capital. Each track should have a project map, progress indicators, responsible participants, and a mechanism for annual updates.

The participation of business is of particular importance. States can sign framework documents, but real demand for corridors is generated by exporters, importers, carriers, banks, insurance companies, terminal operators, and manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, within the framework of the Termez Dialogue, business sessions, B2B platforms, sectoral presentations, and discussions of specific barriers faced by companies are necessary.

The expert track should serve as an evidence base. It can prepare an annual report on the state of connectivity between Central and South Asia, a corridor-readiness index, monitoring of transportation time and costs, a review of regulatory barriers, analysis of investment projects, and recommendations for governments. In this area, Uzbekistan’s analytical institutions can play a leading role.

The Termez Dialogue is also important as an instrument for involving Afghanistan in economic processes on a pragmatic basis. This is not a matter of political legitimization, but of reducing economic isolation, developing transit procedures, supporting sustainable livelihoods, and creating incentives for stability. This logic corresponds to the interests of all participants, since Afghanistan’s economic predictability directly affects the cost and security of interregional routes.

10. Connectivity and the Sustainable Development Goals

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is directly linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The development of energy networks supports SDG 7, the expansion of trade and employment corresponds to SDG 8, the construction of resilient infrastructure is linked to SDG 9, the reduction of spatial isolation contributes to SDG 10, climate resilience relates to SDG 13, and regional coordination and partnerships correspond to SDG 16 and SDG 17.

However, the link with the SDGs does not arise automatically. Infrastructure can promote development, but it can also deepen inequality if benefits accrue only to major actors while local communities bear the costs. Therefore, projects should include environmental assessment, social safeguards, consultations with the population, management of land-related issues, occupational safety measures, and transparent compensation mechanisms.

Special attention should be paid to women, youth, and small enterprises. New corridors create demand for services in logistics, trade, catering, repair, digital support, education, and tourism. If access to these opportunities is opened to local entrepreneurs, infrastructure will become a source of inclusive growth, not merely transit rent.

Climate risk is already becoming an economic factor. According to World Bank estimates, by 2030, nearly 90% of South Asia’s population may be exposed to intense heat, while more than one fifth of the population may face the risk of severe flooding. For Central Asia, the key constraint is water: in Uzbekistan, the volume of water withdrawal significantly exceeds internal renewable resources, and the current water deficit may increase to 7 billion m³ by 2030 and to 15 billion m³ by 2050^[9][10][11].

The climate dimension of connectivity is becoming increasingly important. South Asia and Central Asia are exposed to the risks of extreme weather events, glacier melt, droughts, floods, and tensions around water. Therefore, new roads, railways, power transmission lines, and logistics centers should be designed with long-term climate scenarios in mind. For the energy sector, this means combining electricity trade, energy efficiency, renewable sources, and grid resilience.

From the standpoint of sustainable development, the most promising model is not one of raw-material transit, but one of value-added creation. This implies agro-processing, industrial cooperation, service chains, digital trade, the localization of selected industries, and workforce training. In this case, connectivity is transformed from the movement of goods into a mechanism of structural modernization.

11. Conclusion

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is one of the key conditions for the sustainable development of the macroregion. It is capable of expanding sales markets, reducing transport isolation, strengthening energy security, supporting employment, and creating new incentives for regional stability. At the same time, the expected effect depends not on a single project, but on a coordinated package of measures.

The main practical conclusion is the need for a portfolio approach. The trans-Afghan railway, the route through Iran, road corridors, air connectivity, the CASA-1000 and TAPI energy projects, trade digitalization, logistics hubs, and investment platforms should be viewed as mutually complementary elements. Each of them has different implementation timelines, risks, and economic logic; therefore, the regional strategy should ensure redundancy and flexibility.

Uzbekistan has objective advantages for the role of a connector state. Its geography, demographic potential, industrial base, southern hub in Termez, and active foreign economic agenda make it possible to bring together the interests of Central and South Asia.

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform where political will is translated into project-level discipline. For this to happen, it should generate not only declarations, but also a list of projects, indicators, road maps, evaluation mechanisms, and permanent channels of interaction among business, experts, and government agencies.

In the long term, connectivity between Central and South Asia should be oriented not only toward increasing trade volumes, but also toward improving the quality of development. A sustainable macroregion will take shape where infrastructure is connected with institutions, energy with climate responsibility, trade with industrial cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives with evidence-based analysis and practical results.

Muhammad Babadjanov,

Head of Department

at The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies

under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan

[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration/trade

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=TJ-UZ-KZ-TM-KG

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/country/south-asia

[4] https://uzembassy.kz/en/article/the-mazar-i-sharif-kabul-peshawar-railway-will-open-up-broad-prospects-for-international-trade

[5] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/brief/updated-q-a-on-casa-1000-resumption-in-afghanistan

[6] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/11/01/additional-financing-for-casa-1000-project-for-the-kyrgyz-republic

[7] https://www.carecprogram.org/uploads/03-CAREC-Transport-Strategy-2030-Midterm-Review-Draft-Report.pdf

[8] https://cpmm.carecprogram.org/2022-report/key-results/

[9] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/03/climate-resilience-in-south-asia-will-be-private-sector-led

[10] https://data.worldbank.org/country/uzbekistan

[11] https://www.adb.org/news/features/numbers-climate-change-central-asia

The upcoming official visit of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan to the Republic of Türkiye reflects the deepening strategic partnership between the two countries. One of the most dynamic areas of this cooperation is labor migration, built on mutual trust and a shared human-centered vision.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has fundamentally transformed its migration policy, placing human dignity, legal employment, and social protection at the core of its reforms. This approach aims to ensure that citizens working abroad do so safely, legally, and with full respect for their rights.

Cooperation with Türkiye exemplifies this new philosophy. The entry into force of the bilateral agreement on the protection of the rights of labor migrants and their family members marked a significant milestone in strengthening legal and institutional guarantees for migrants.

Regular dialogue between migration and labor authorities, joint forums, and practical coordination mechanisms have contributed to more orderly and transparent labor mobility. Notably, agreements reached to legalize the status of Uzbek citizens without administrative penalties, particularly in sectors with high labor demand, demonstrate a shared commitment to humane and pragmatic solutions.

Another key dimension of cooperation is skills recognition and certification. Collaboration with Türkiye’s professional qualification institutions enables Uzbek citizens to obtain internationally recognized certificates, enhancing their employability both in Türkiye and beyond.

Partnerships with leading Turkish companies further expand legal employment opportunities, including participation in large-scale construction and infrastructure projects. These initiatives are complemented by the active role of Uzbekistan’s Migration Agency representation in Türkiye, which provides legal, social, and advisory assistance to citizens and safeguards their rights.

Today, negotiations have begun between the two countries on developing a “Social Protection” agreement. Through this agreement, Uzbek citizens working in Türkiye and Turkish citizens working in Uzbekistan will be able to reclaim their social insurance contributions. This will allow workers to formalize their employment and secure legal protections.

Uzbekistan and Türkiye view labor migration not as a challenge, but as a driver of development, stability, and human well-being. The forthcoming presidential visit is expected to elevate this cooperation to a new level, reinforcing a model of migration governance rooted in humanity and mutual benefit.