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To His Excellency

Мr. Shavkat Mirziyoyev

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

ADDRESS

of the Participants of the First International Forum on Islamic Civilization

Your Excellency, Mr. President,

We, the participants of the First International Forum on Islamic Civilization—including heads of prestigious international organizations and academic and educational institutions from abroad, ministers, muftis, distinguished scholars, and representatives of universities, research institutes, libraries, museums, and cultural institutions from more than fifty countries—wish to express to Your Excellency our sincere appreciation and profound respect.

First and foremost, we would like to emphasize that the First International Forum on Islamic Civilization, convened at your personal initiative and with your steadfast support, has, by virtue of its substance, significance, and far-reaching impact, transcended the scope of a traditional international academic gathering. It has become a landmark event of exceptional importance, earning widespread international recognition.

There is no doubt that the visionary ideas and principles set forth in your Address to the participants shaped the Forum's agenda, defined the objectives of its deliberations, and guided the discussions held over the course of four days under the close attention of the international community. They provided the intellectual and moral foundation for meaningful dialogue and productive international scholarly cooperation.

We are confident that this Forum, which brought together leading representatives of the Muslim world's academic and intellectual community, has inaugurated a new stage of global cooperation aimed at studying, preserving, safeguarding, and promoting the rich legacy of Islamic civilization as an integral part of the shared spiritual, cultural, and intellectual heritage of humanity.

The decision to hold the Forum in the historic cities of Tashkent, Samarkand, and Termez further enhanced its scholarly spirit and historical significance. It was on this blessed land that, over many centuries, great centers of learning flourished and fundamental works were produced, making invaluable contributions to theology, philosophy, medicine, mathematics, astronomy, and numerous other fields of knowledge. Many ideas and discoveries that profoundly influenced the progress of human civilization originated from these very cities and spread throughout the world.

We express our deep appreciation for the initiative you put forward during the 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2017 to establish the Center for Islamic Civilization in Uzbekistan. We regard this initiative as one of the most significant international humanitarian initiatives of the past decade, marking a turning point in the understanding of the rich history and cultural heritage of this land as a unified civilizational phenomenon.

This historic initiative has created broad opportunities for bringing together the international scholarly community to promote objective research into and wider recognition of the invaluable contribution of Islamic civilization to the development of world science, culture, and spirituality. At the same time, it has become an important milestone in laying the intellectual and spiritual foundations for the New Renaissance—the Third Renaissance.

Today, we recognize more clearly than ever that this initiative has served as a timely and far-sighted response to the challenges and threats of the modern world. At a time when attempts are being made in various parts of the world to distort the humanistic essence of Islam, to set cultures and civilizations against one another, and to diminish the immense contribution of Muslim scholars to the advancement of global science and culture, you proposed a constructive path founded on enlightenment, scientific inquiry, respect for historical truth, and the objective presentation of the authentic legacy of Islamic civilization to the international community.

In doing so, a significant step has been taken toward restoring historical justice, strengthening a culture of open academic dialogue, fostering mutual respect, and expanding international humanitarian cooperation.

Today, these noble aspirations have acquired particular global significance. Indeed, it is through knowledge, historical memory, and the unification of the intellectual potential of nations that mutual trust among states is strengthened, effective resistance to extremism, radicalism, and intolerance is enhanced, understanding among civilizations is deepened, and a solid moral foundation for peace, sustainable development, and shared prosperity is established.

There is no doubt that Your Address, embodying such timely and far-reaching ideas, will remain for all of us a landmark historical and programmatic document, guiding our future joint endeavors.

We are witnessing how the Center for Islamic Civilization, established through Your Excellency's vision, wisdom, and steadfast leadership, as well as your remarkable ability to perceive the past, the present, and the future as parts of one continuous historical process, is evolving not only into a world-class scholarly and educational institution but also into a distinguished international platform that brings together states, international organizations, leading scholars, research institutions, universities, libraries, museums, and centers of spiritual and educational excellence to implement joint initiatives aimed at studying, preserving, safeguarding, and promoting the invaluable heritage of Islamic civilization. We are confident that in the years ahead the Center will rightfully take its place among the world's leading institutions in the humanities and become a major cultural, educational, and academic hub where innovative ideas, collaborative research, and long-term international partnerships will flourish.

We have been particularly impressed by the large-scale reforms being carried out in the Republic of Uzbekistan to preserve and promote its spiritual, scholarly, and cultural heritage. The Center for Islamic Civilization, the renovated Imam al-Bukhari Memorial Complex, the International Research Centers named after Imam al-Bukhari, Imam al-Maturidi, and Imam al-Tirmidhi, the International Academy of Islamic Studies, the Tashkent Islamic Institute named after Imam al-Bukhari, and other unique institutions stand as compelling evidence of the consistent state policy aimed at preserving historical memory, advancing fundamental scholarship, and strengthening international humanitarian cooperation.

In a word, the Republic of Uzbekistan, as one of the oldest cradles of Islamic scholarship, culture, and enlightenment, is today further consolidating its historic role as a leading center for humanitarian cooperation, academic research, and dialogue among civilizations.

Your Excellency, Mr. President,

The fact that the First International Forum on Islamic Civilization was held under the theme "Peace, Tolerance and Enlightenment" deserves particular recognition. These timeless and interconnected values, which embody the humanistic essence of Islamic civilization, are of enduring relevance to the contemporary world. This great legacy constitutes an inseparable part of the cultural, spiritual, and intellectual heritage of all humankind. Accordingly, its preservation, comprehensive study, and transmission to future generations represent a shared responsibility of international organizations, governments, the global academic community, and all those committed to promoting peace, mutual understanding, and cooperation.

We express our full support for the Declaration adopted upon the conclusion of the Forum, as well as for the Roadmap on the Preservation, Study, and Advancement of Islamic Civilization, regarding them as a solid foundation for long-term international cooperation. We sincerely hope that Your Excellency will continue to provide leadership and unwavering support for the implementation of the initiatives set forth in these documents, further strengthening international cooperation, safeguarding our shared spiritual heritage, and advancing Islamic civilization as a source of peace, enlightenment, and mutual understanding.

With a view to translating the Forum's decisions into practical action, we intend, in consultation with Your Excellency, to put forward the initiative to establish the World Alliance for Islamic Civilization. We believe that the Alliance will serve to coordinate joint research programs, promote the training of highly qualified specialists, expand academic exchanges, implement international publishing initiatives, preserve and promote cultural heritage, and further strengthen humanitarian cooperation among nations.

The decisions adopted during the Forum clearly demonstrate that this noble initiative, which originated in Uzbekistan, has gained broad international support and is becoming a shared endeavor of the global scholarly and intellectual community.

Here is a polished and formal English translation suitable for an official international declaration:

We hereby reaffirm our readiness to combine our intellectual, academic, and spiritual capacities to implement these resolutions and to preserve and pass on the great heritage of Islamic civilization to future generations.

We are confident that the resolutions adopted in the ancient land of Uzbekistan will serve as a solid foundation for a new stage of international cooperation in the study, preservation, and wide dissemination of the heritage of Islamic civilization.

By adopting this Appeal, we once again acknowledge the great collective responsibility we undertake in implementing these resolutions and reaffirm our commitment to working alongside you in promoting peace, enlightenment, mutual respect, and the preservation of the great spiritual and intellectual heritage that constitutes an integral part of the common legacy of all humankind.

Your Excellency, Mr. President,

We extend our profound gratitude to You, and through You to all the organizers of the Forum and the entire multinational people of Uzbekistan, for the excellent organization of the First International Forum on Islamic Civilization and for the warm and generous hospitality extended to all participants.

We wish Your Excellency good health, family happiness, and ever greater success in your noble and highly responsible service to the people of Uzbekistan.

We also wish you continued success in implementing the New Uzbekistan Strategy, laying the foundations for the Third Renaissance, and further strengthening the country's distinguished standing, prestige, and reputation as one of the world's leading centers of science, education, Islamic civilization, humanitarian cooperation, and dialogue among civilizations.

May Almighty Allah bless your noble intentions and endeavors with abundant goodness and prosperity.

May the resolutions adopted at the First International Forum on Islamic Civilization contribute to strengthening mutual understanding, justice, and cooperation among the peoples of the world.

May the Lord of the Worlds grant peace, national unity, prosperity, and continued progress to the hardworking, hospitable, and noble people of Uzbekistan—the creators of a great civilization with a history spanning three millennia. May He further enhance their creative potential and enable them to fulfill all their noble aspirations.

With the highest respect,

Participants of the First International Forum on Islamic Civilization

9 July 2026

1. Introduction

Central and South Asia form one of Eurasia’s most significant geographic junctions. Central Asia connects the continent’s east–west and north–south routes, while South Asia contains one of the world’s largest population bases and consumer markets. Taken together, the countries of the two subregions have a population of more than 2 billion people; however, their direct economic interaction remains below its potential level.

The scale of the potential market is confirmed by the figures: in 2024, the population of South Asia was approximately 1.68 billion people, while the region’s combined GDP was about US$4.5 trillion. At the same time, the economy of the five Central Asian countries in 2024 amounted to approximately US$489 billion. However, the level of interregional integration remains low: even within South Asia, intraregional trade is estimated at around 5% of total trade turnover, which is significantly lower than the ASEAN figure^[1][2][3].

This is evident in trade statistics: Central Asia’s main trade flows continue to be oriented toward Russia, China, the European Union, Türkiye, and the Middle East, while trade with South Asia occupies a comparatively limited niche.

The underused potential is explained not by a lack of demand, but by structural constraints. Between the two subregions, there are mountain barriers, complex cross-border routes, differing levels of integration into international supply chains, non-uniform customs and technical procedures, as well as the Afghanistan factor, which is simultaneously the shortest connecting link and the most sensitive element of the regional architecture. Therefore, the issue of connectivity has not only commercial but also strategic significance.

The restoration of economic ties between Central and South Asia should not be viewed as a romanticized return to historical routes. In modern conditions, it is a matter of competitiveness, supply-chain security, energy resilience, and diversification of foreign economic directions. For the countries of Central Asia, the southern route opens shorter access to the ports of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. For the countries of South Asia, it creates an opportunity to gain access to energy resources, food products, industrial goods, and new markets in Eurasia.

Uzbekistan occupies a special place in this logic. It is located in the central part of the region, borders all Central Asian states and Afghanistan, and therefore is capable of forming a link between the internal markets of Central Asia and the southern direction. At the same time, the role of a connector state means more than the transit of goods. It includes the coordination of infrastructure projects, the development of logistics services, the improvement of institutional quality, the creation of an analytical basis for decision-making, and the involvement of the private sector in interregional projects.

2. Historical and geographical preconditions for connectivity

The historical connection between Central and South Asia was formed long before the emergence of modern state borders. The cities of Transoxiana, Khorasan, Bactria, and northern India were part of a network of caravan routes and exchanges of artisanal goods, knowledge, religious traditions, and financial practices. Samarkand, Bukhara, Balkh, Merv, Kabul, Peshawar, and Lahore, in different periods, served as trade and cultural hubs linking the Eurasian space.

However, historical connectedness does not automatically translate into economic integration today. Modern supply chains depend on railways, highways, ports, energy networks, digital cargo-tracking systems, insurance, banking settlements, and predictable rules. Where even one of these elements is absent, transit becomes expensive, slow, and risky.

The geography of the region creates both incentives and constraints. On the one hand, the distance from Uzbekistan’s southern borders to northern Afghanistan is relatively short, and the route through Afghanistan is potentially the shortest overland path from Central Asia to Pakistan and onward to the ports of the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, mountain ranges, differences in railway gauge, the limited capacity of border infrastructure, security issues, and insufficient standardization of procedures increase the cost of projects.

Uzbekistan’s geographical role has not only qualitative but also measurable significance: the country is one of only two double-landlocked states in the world and, at the same time, the only state bordering all four other Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan. In this context, the Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway project, with a length of approximately 573 km, acquires systemic importance, since it could reduce the time and cost of transportation toward Pakistan’s ports by roughly 30%^[4].

Therefore, connectivity should be understood more broadly than the physical connection of two points on a map. In the modern economy, it includes four dimensions. The first is infrastructural: roads, railways, terminals, ports, and energy networks. The second is institutional: customs, tariffs, standards, sanitary and phytosanitary rules, permits, and transit guarantees. The third is commercial: demand, purchasing power, contracts, logistics companies, insurance, and banking channels. The fourth is social and humanitarian: education, labor skills, tourism, medical ties, and research cooperation.

This approach helps avoid oversimplification. Even the shortest road will not become a sustainable corridor unless it is supported by a reliable legal environment, competitive tariffs, financial guarantees, and coordination among states.

3. Current state of trade and economic cooperation

Trade and economic ties between Central and South Asia are developing, but their scale still does not correspond to the size of the markets. Trade between Central Asian countries and India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan remains relatively modest compared with their trade with China, Russia, the European Union, Türkiye, and countries of the Middle East.

Central Asia supplies, or could potentially expand supplies to South Asia, in such areas as agricultural products, grain, fruit and vegetable products, textiles, fertilizers, energy goods, certain types of metals, and industrial raw materials. South Asia, primarily India and Pakistan, holds competitive positions in pharmaceuticals, medical goods, IT services, equipment, textile products, processed food products, and consumer goods.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been strengthening the southern direction of its foreign economic policy. Trade ties with India and Pakistan are developing through pharmaceuticals, textiles, food products, services, logistics, and investment projects. Uzbekistan’s foreign trade in the southern direction is already growing, but it still occupies a limited place in the overall structure of foreign trade. The largest trade flows with South Asian countries are with Afghanistan and India. However, the very fact that certain bilateral flows are growing does not solve the main problem: interregional trade remains fragmented. In order to turn it into a sustainable market, it is necessary to reduce transaction costs, ensure the predictability of transit, make standards comparable, and develop business services.

The issue of trade data is especially important. Mutual trade is often assessed using different sources, while the statistics of exporting countries and importing countries may diverge. To develop effective policy, a regularly updated data panel is needed, broken down by corridors, types of cargo, border-crossing times, transportation costs, return loads, the number of permits, and the actual use of preferential regimes. Without such a database, regional initiatives risk remaining merely declaratory.

4. Transport and logistics infrastructure as the basis of connectivity

Transport infrastructure is the material foundation for the rapprochement of Central and South Asia. At the same time, it is more accurate to speak not of a single route, but of a portfolio of corridors. Relying on only one route increases the vulnerability of the entire system. A diversified network of routes through Afghanistan, Iran, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and existing Eurasian directions creates redundancy, reduces risks, and strengthens the negotiating position of shippers.

The key project in the southern direction remains the trans-Afghan railway corridor Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar. Its strategic value lies in its potential to connect Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries with Pakistan’s ports, including Karachi, Qasim, and Gwadar. If implemented, such a corridor could reduce the distance and delivery time for certain types of cargo. However, the project requires the resolution of several complex issues: financing, security, technical parameters, railway gauge compatibility, the operating model, tariffs, and the distribution of risks among participants.

The Termez–Hairatan hub in Uzbekistan has particular significance. It is the closest entry point from Uzbekistan into Afghanistan and is already used as a logistics, humanitarian, and trade channel. The development of terminals, warehouses, customs capacities, multimodal transport services, and digital cargo-control systems could turn this hub into a stable anchor point for interregional trade.

Alongside the trans-Afghan route, the route through Iran is also important. For India, Central Asia, and Afghanistan, the Chabahar port is of particular significance, as are its links with the International North–South Transport Corridor and the Ashgabat Agreement. This option does not replace the trans-Afghan route, but it increases the resilience of the trade system. Events of recent years have shown that the closure or restriction of individual routes quickly increases the importance of alternative pathways through Iran and the countries of Central Asia.

Road corridors remain a necessary complement to railways. They are especially important for perishable products, small consignments, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and high-value-added goods. In this area, the key factors are not only roads, but also border procedures, the permit system for carriers, weight control, insurance, the safety of parking areas, and access to backhaul cargo.

The development of air connectivity plays a separate role. Direct flights between Tashkent, Samarkand, Almaty, Astana, Delhi, Mumbai, Lahore, and other cities do not create mass freight logistics, but they reduce barriers to business travel, tourism, education, medical services, and managerial oversight of investment projects. For modern business, such mobility is not a secondary factor, but a systemic one.

5. Energy partnership: from project-based logic to a regional market

Energy is one of the most obvious areas of complementarity between Central and South Asia. The Central Asian countries possess significant resources in natural gas, hydropower, solar power, and wind generation. South Asia, primarily Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, faces high energy demand, seasonal consumption peaks, and the need for a more reliable supply structure.

The most advanced interregional project in the electricity sector is CASA-1000. According to World Bank materials, the project is intended to ensure the transmission of up to 1,300 MW of surplus summer electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The project also provides for high-voltage transmission infrastructure, including power transmission lines and converter stations. Its significance goes beyond the energy sector: it demonstrates the possibility of contract-based electricity trade between the subregions with the participation of international financial institutions.

In the gas sector, the best-known project is TAPI: Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India. Its planned logic is straightforward: Turkmen gas is expected to flow through Afghanistan to the energy-deficient markets of South Asia. Published descriptions of the project usually indicate a length of approximately 1,800 km and a designed capacity of up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. However, TAPI remains a complex project with a high dependence on security, financing, long-term contracts, payment guarantees, and political coordination among the participants.

CASA-1000 has not only political but also measurable infrastructural significance: the project cost is estimated at approximately US$1.2 billion, while the designed transmission capacity is 1,300 MW. The Kyrgyz component provides for around 456 km of 500 kV power transmission lines. This makes it possible to view CASA-1000 as the first major example of contract-based interregional electricity trade between Central and South Asia^[5][6].

The new energy agenda includes not only the export of fuel and electricity, but also the development of low-carbon solutions. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are expanding projects in solar, wind, and hydropower, while also modernizing their grids. In the long term, South Asia could become a market for seasonal electricity and energy services from Central Asia. However, this requires rules for cross-border trade, compatible dispatch mechanisms, commercial guarantees, transparent tariffs, and investment in grid resilience.

Energy cooperation must take into account climate and water-related factors. In Central Asia, hydropower is closely linked to irrigation and water resource management. In South Asia, electricity demand depends on temperature peaks, urbanization, and industrial growth. Therefore, energy projects should be accompanied by mechanisms for climate adaptation, forecasting water availability, improving energy efficiency, and developing energy storage systems.

6. Investment cooperation and business ties

Investment cooperation between Central and South Asia is still developing on a case-by-case basis, but it has significant potential. Unlike trade in raw materials, investment requires a higher level of trust, legal certainty, protection of property rights, clear tax regimes, access to foreign-exchange settlements, and high-quality business information.

The most promising areas include pharmaceuticals, medical services, agro-processing, textiles, logistics, warehouse infrastructure, IT services, education, tourism, financial technologies, renewable energy, and the production of components for infrastructure projects. South Asian companies have strong competencies in IT, pharmaceuticals, and services, while Central Asia offers access to raw materials, industrial sites, growing domestic markets, and transit opportunities.

An important task is to move from one-off business contacts to a systematic investment pipeline. This requires project catalogues, clear requirements for investors, standardized public-private partnership models, dispute-resolution mechanisms, insurance against political and commercial risks, and joint workforce training programs.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are of particular importance. Large infrastructure projects create the foundation, but it is small and medium-sized businesses that fill corridors with real goods and services. For them, access to information, affordable logistics services, digital marketplaces, simplified payments, standardized documents, and support in entering a new market are critical.

Development institutions and international financial organizations can play a catalytic role. Their participation reduces risks, improves the quality of project preparation, and disciplines the participants. However, external financing does not replace national reforms. Without clear rules, transparent statistics, and effective courts, even concessional loans will not create a sustainable flow of investment.

7. The strategic role of Uzbekistan as a connector state

Uzbekistan possesses a unique set of preconditions for playing the role of a connector state. It is located at the center of Central Asia, borders all the countries of the region as well as Afghanistan, and is also a major demographic and industrial market. For a country without access to the sea, the development of external corridors is not an optional task, but a condition for long-term competitiveness.

Uzbekistan’s role is not limited to transit. A transit country earns revenue from the movement of goods, but a connector state shapes rules, services, trust, and the institutional environment. This means developing multimodal hubs, creating logistics centers, digitalizing customs procedures, expanding railway and road links, training personnel, attracting banks and insurance organizations, and providing analytical support for projects.

The southern direction strengthens Uzbekistan’s foreign economic diversification. It complements the country’s already existing links in the northern, eastern, and western directions. At the same time, the diversification of routes reduces dependence on individual markets and transit pathways, which is especially important amid instability in global trade, changes in tariff policy, and geopolitical restrictions.

Termez occupies a special place in this strategy. It can serve as a border logistics center, a platform for trade with Afghanistan, a hub of humanitarian and commercial infrastructure, and a symbolic space for discussing connectivity between Central and South Asia. To turn this role into a sustainable result, investment is needed in terminals, railway approaches, warehouse capacity, services for carriers, and a system for analyzing cargo flows.

Uzbekistan’s strength also lies in its ability to put forward multilateral initiatives. Interregional connectivity cannot be implemented through bilateral agreements alone. It requires the alignment of interests among the countries of Central Asia, the countries of South Asia, Afghanistan, international financial institutions, business, and the expert community. In this sphere, Uzbekistan can act as a coordinator of the agenda and a provider of analytical solutions.

8. Key barriers and ways to overcome them

The first barrier is incomplete infrastructure. Many corridors exist in the form of project concepts or partially functioning routes. To transform them into commercially sustainable directions, technical and economic feasibility studies, agreed tariffs, clear sources of financing, unified operational models, and transparent risk allocation are required.

The second barrier is security and the predictability of transit. For business, what matters is not only the length of the route, but also the likelihood of delays, losses, border closures, changes in rules, and additional payments. Therefore, transport policy should include insurance mechanisms, security standards, corridor monitoring, crisis protocols, and regular information exchange among government agencies.

The third barrier is administrative fragmentation. Different documents, uncoordinated customs procedures, weak advance declaration, the absence of mutual recognition of certain certificates, and limited digital interoperability increase the cost of trade. The solution lies in the transition to electronic transport documents, the expansion of the single-window principle, the introduction of risk-based control, and the coordination of technical standards.

The scale of the financial challenge can be assessed through the example of CAREC: in 2021–2024, transport investment under the program amounted to US$8.61 billion, with a significant share of financing provided by international partners. This shows that infrastructure corridors require not only a political decision, but also a sustainable financial architecture^[7][8].

Administrative barriers have a measurable expression. According to CAREC monitoring, in 2022, the average border-crossing time on road corridors was 9.9 hours, while on railway corridors it was 40.6 hours. This confirms that the digitalization of documents, advance declaration, and risk-based control can produce an effect even without the immediate construction of new arterial routes.

The fourth barrier is financial constraints. Infrastructure projects require large capital investments and have long payback periods. A combination of budget funds, loans from international financial organizations, public-private partnerships, guarantees, project financing, and blended-finance mechanisms is needed. At the same time, each project must undergo an assessment of commercial viability, not only political attractiveness.

The fifth barrier is the lack of market information. Companies often do not know potential partners, market requirements, logistics tariffs, certification rules, or available financial instruments. This barrier can be reduced through digital trade platforms, business missions, sectoral catalogues, regular exhibitions, analytical reviews, and consulting centers under chambers of commerce and industry.

The sixth barrier is climate and resource-related risks. Mountainous areas, droughts, floods, changes in glacial runoff, and extreme weather events affect roads, energy, and agriculture. New corridors should be designed with climate resilience in mind, while energy projects should take into account the water balance and the seasonality of demand.

Practical priorities through 2030

9. The Termez Dialogue as an institutional foundation for cooperation

The Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia can become an important institutional platform for coordinating the interregional agenda. In 2025, the first dialogue was held in Termez, dedicated to the formation of a shared space of peace, friendship, and prosperity. The very choice of Termez emphasizes the city’s practical role as Uzbekistan’s southern hub and as a symbolic point of connection with Afghanistan and South Asia.

The effectiveness of such a format will depend on whether it can move from general statements to the management of a project-based agenda. For this purpose, it would be advisable to structure the dialogue around four permanent tracks: transport and logistics, trade and standards, energy and climate, and investment and human capital. Each track should have a project map, progress indicators, responsible participants, and a mechanism for annual updates.

The participation of business is of particular importance. States can sign framework documents, but real demand for corridors is generated by exporters, importers, carriers, banks, insurance companies, terminal operators, and manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, within the framework of the Termez Dialogue, business sessions, B2B platforms, sectoral presentations, and discussions of specific barriers faced by companies are necessary.

The expert track should serve as an evidence base. It can prepare an annual report on the state of connectivity between Central and South Asia, a corridor-readiness index, monitoring of transportation time and costs, a review of regulatory barriers, analysis of investment projects, and recommendations for governments. In this area, Uzbekistan’s analytical institutions can play a leading role.

The Termez Dialogue is also important as an instrument for involving Afghanistan in economic processes on a pragmatic basis. This is not a matter of political legitimization, but of reducing economic isolation, developing transit procedures, supporting sustainable livelihoods, and creating incentives for stability. This logic corresponds to the interests of all participants, since Afghanistan’s economic predictability directly affects the cost and security of interregional routes.

10. Connectivity and the Sustainable Development Goals

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is directly linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The development of energy networks supports SDG 7, the expansion of trade and employment corresponds to SDG 8, the construction of resilient infrastructure is linked to SDG 9, the reduction of spatial isolation contributes to SDG 10, climate resilience relates to SDG 13, and regional coordination and partnerships correspond to SDG 16 and SDG 17.

However, the link with the SDGs does not arise automatically. Infrastructure can promote development, but it can also deepen inequality if benefits accrue only to major actors while local communities bear the costs. Therefore, projects should include environmental assessment, social safeguards, consultations with the population, management of land-related issues, occupational safety measures, and transparent compensation mechanisms.

Special attention should be paid to women, youth, and small enterprises. New corridors create demand for services in logistics, trade, catering, repair, digital support, education, and tourism. If access to these opportunities is opened to local entrepreneurs, infrastructure will become a source of inclusive growth, not merely transit rent.

Climate risk is already becoming an economic factor. According to World Bank estimates, by 2030, nearly 90% of South Asia’s population may be exposed to intense heat, while more than one fifth of the population may face the risk of severe flooding. For Central Asia, the key constraint is water: in Uzbekistan, the volume of water withdrawal significantly exceeds internal renewable resources, and the current water deficit may increase to 7 billion m³ by 2030 and to 15 billion m³ by 2050^[9][10][11].

The climate dimension of connectivity is becoming increasingly important. South Asia and Central Asia are exposed to the risks of extreme weather events, glacier melt, droughts, floods, and tensions around water. Therefore, new roads, railways, power transmission lines, and logistics centers should be designed with long-term climate scenarios in mind. For the energy sector, this means combining electricity trade, energy efficiency, renewable sources, and grid resilience.

From the standpoint of sustainable development, the most promising model is not one of raw-material transit, but one of value-added creation. This implies agro-processing, industrial cooperation, service chains, digital trade, the localization of selected industries, and workforce training. In this case, connectivity is transformed from the movement of goods into a mechanism of structural modernization.

11. Conclusion

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is one of the key conditions for the sustainable development of the macroregion. It is capable of expanding sales markets, reducing transport isolation, strengthening energy security, supporting employment, and creating new incentives for regional stability. At the same time, the expected effect depends not on a single project, but on a coordinated package of measures.

The main practical conclusion is the need for a portfolio approach. The trans-Afghan railway, the route through Iran, road corridors, air connectivity, the CASA-1000 and TAPI energy projects, trade digitalization, logistics hubs, and investment platforms should be viewed as mutually complementary elements. Each of them has different implementation timelines, risks, and economic logic; therefore, the regional strategy should ensure redundancy and flexibility.

Uzbekistan has objective advantages for the role of a connector state. Its geography, demographic potential, industrial base, southern hub in Termez, and active foreign economic agenda make it possible to bring together the interests of Central and South Asia.

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform where political will is translated into project-level discipline. For this to happen, it should generate not only declarations, but also a list of projects, indicators, road maps, evaluation mechanisms, and permanent channels of interaction among business, experts, and government agencies.

In the long term, connectivity between Central and South Asia should be oriented not only toward increasing trade volumes, but also toward improving the quality of development. A sustainable macroregion will take shape where infrastructure is connected with institutions, energy with climate responsibility, trade with industrial cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives with evidence-based analysis and practical results.

Muhammad Babadjanov,

Head of Department

at The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies

under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan

[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration/trade

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=TJ-UZ-KZ-TM-KG

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/country/south-asia

[4] https://uzembassy.kz/en/article/the-mazar-i-sharif-kabul-peshawar-railway-will-open-up-broad-prospects-for-international-trade

[5] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/brief/updated-q-a-on-casa-1000-resumption-in-afghanistan

[6] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/11/01/additional-financing-for-casa-1000-project-for-the-kyrgyz-republic

[7] https://www.carecprogram.org/uploads/03-CAREC-Transport-Strategy-2030-Midterm-Review-Draft-Report.pdf

[8] https://cpmm.carecprogram.org/2022-report/key-results/

[9] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/03/climate-resilience-in-south-asia-will-be-private-sector-led

[10] https://data.worldbank.org/country/uzbekistan

[11] https://www.adb.org/news/features/numbers-climate-change-central-asia

Since ancient times, Central and South Asia have been closely connected through trade, cultural exchange and political processes. Geographical proximity and ancient trade routes contributed to active dialogue between peoples and civilizations, the exchange of goods and culture as well as the formation of a shared historical and cultural identity in the region. Following the acquisition of independence, the Central Asian states began gradually developing their own foreign policy and economic strategies toward South Asia.

Given the significance of Central and South Asia, shaped by their strategic location, abundant natural resources, demographic potential and historical heritage, these regions have become the subject of extensive scientific research. Thus, from the perspective of the regional security complex, scholars consider Central and South Asia as two independent yet equal regions. In this context, it is important to emphasize the transformation of Afghanistan’s role as a key component of the regional security complex, facilitating interconnectedness and the gradual rapprochement between South and Central Asia.

It should be noted that Uzbekistan, located in the heart of Central Asia, plays a key role in ensuring regional security and stability. At the same time, the country, actively promoting constructive foreign policy initiatives aimed at strengthening peace and cooperation in the region, acts as the locomotive of economic interconnectedness between Central and South Asia. Recognizing the growing demand for mutual ties between the regions, in July 2021 in Tashkent a high-level international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities” was held. There the proposal to develop and submit for consideration to the UN General Assembly a draft special resolution “On Strengthening the Connectivity between Central and South Asia” was put forward. As a result, in July 2022, the UN member states unanimously approved the adoption of this resolution, which became another vivid testament to the recognition of our country’s role and authority in deepening interconnectedness, establishing dialogue with the region and maintaining peace and stability.

It should be emphasized that the resolution calls on states to unite their efforts in combating common challenges and threats to stability and security in Central and South Asia, recommends continuing and deepening interregional cooperation by expanding transport infrastructure and information-communication technologies, as well as by developing new international transport corridors that provide convenient, sustainable, commercially viable, affordable, accessible, inclusive and safe routes to seaports.

In these processes, Termez has the potential to become a unique platform for connecting the two regions, both in terms of ensuring regional security and in terms of developing trade and economic relations. At the same time, the city of Termez, historically considered as one of the centers of dialogue between peoples and civilizations, the development of trade, humanitarian, and other ties, for many centuries occupied a strategically important position in the region. Thus, the era of the Kushan Empire, Termez served as a major cultural center where various civilizations actively interacted. The city was a significant hub for the transmission of Buddhist art and literature, which spread widely across Central and South Asia. Moreover, from a geographical point of view, Termez was a link between Central and South Asia. It was also one of the key points on the Great Silk Road connecting East and West.

At the present stage, Termez serves as a starting point for the implementation of a number of transport and infrastructure projects, such as the “Termez – Naibabad – Maydan Shahr – Logar – Kharlachi” railway, the “Surkhan – Puli-Khumri” power lines, and others. In general, the significance of the Termez platform lies in the following:

Firstly, in the context of ensuring regional security and stability, the city of Termez has consistently held a central position. Following the events of 11/9/2001 the “Termez Strategic Air Transport Point” was established here, which operated from 2002 to 2015 and ensured the logistics of humanitarian cargo for the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. This experience further reinforced the city’s significance as a secure transit and supply hub during times of military instability.

In addition, Termez is actively used within the framework of Uzbekistan’s joint initiatives with international partners in combating terrorism, drug trafficking, and cross-border crime. In this context, the “Friendship Bridge” connecting Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, plays an important role in ensuring control not only over the movement of people and cargo, but also in monitoring the illegal trafficking of drugs (including synthetic drugs) coming from Afghanistan, which is important for maintaining regional security (for example, employees of the “Ayritom” border customs post in Surkhandarya region in March of this year prevented an attempt to illegally import a batch of narcotic drugs with a total weight of 70 kg and in May of this year – 600 kg).

At the same time, Termez is considered a platform for constructive resolution of border issues. Thus, on August 22-28, 2024, a regular meeting of the working groups of the joint Uzbek-Tajik demarcation Commission was held in Termez. During the meeting, joint work continued on coordinating the passage of the design demarcation line of the Uzbek-Tajik state border, following which a corresponding protocol was signed.

Secondly, the trade, economic, and logistical significance of the city of Termez, as a material foundation for long-term peace and security in Central and South Asia, is determined by its strategic location and modern logistical infrastructure.

In particular, in 2022, “The Termez Cargo Center terminal” received the status of an international multifunctional logistics hub serving cargo flows to Afghanistan and South Asian countries. This, in turn, has elevated its status in international humanitarian infrastructure (from 2025 it has been integrated into the UN High Commissioner for Humanitarian Affairs warehouse network) and contributed to the expansion of humanitarian shipments’ geography (in 2022 humanitarian aid was delivered by air from Termez to flood victims in Pakistan, and in 2023, the UNHCR Regional Humanitarian Logistics Center in Termez sent 12 truckloads of over 48,000 blankets to Afghanistan). It is noteworthy that Termez’s infrastructure is being actively utilized by international organizations to deliver food and medicine to South Asia, which contributes to reducing social tension and preventing the escalation of conflicts caused by humanitarian crises.

Furthermore, the opening of the Termez International Trade Center in August 2024, designed to create a favorable business environment and logistics, simplify administrative procedures and create conditions for entrepreneurs, on the one hand, enhances the city’s economic attractiveness and, on the other hand, stimulates the growth of economic cooperation between Central and South Asia. In this context, it should be noted that on the territory of the Center (37 hectares, 500 meters from the border with Afghanistan), where 3 thousand retail outlets are located, a 15-day visa-free regime has been introduced for visitors.

In this regard, Termez is also considered a suitable platform for conducting bilateral economic relations. Thus, in March and April of 2024 year, representatives of the Afghan delegation, headed by the Minister of Trade N. Azizi and business circles of the Balkh province, visited the city of Termez, where they held a meeting with the Uzbek side to develop bilateral trade and economic cooperation and expand cooperation in such sectors as agriculture, textiles, pharmaceuticals, food, and mining.

Thirdly, the cultural and humanitarian potential of Termez is considered to be of considerable importance. Thus, in 2018, at the initiative of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, an educational center for Afghan citizens was created. This educational institution is the only one in the world that provides training exclusively for Afghans in 17 areas of higher and 16 areas of secondary specialized, vocational education. During his functioning, about 700 Afghan citizens underwent training, meanwhile 200 of them are girls.

The institution actively maintains international relations and cooperation with donor countries and foreign organizations such as UNDP, EU, GFR, Slovakia, India. Thus, in January 2023, the “EU Knowledge Center” was opened on the basis of this educational institution to train and educate Afghan citizens (this is a coworking space that provides a platform for joint work, self-learning, and establishing professional connections). Overall, the establishment of an educational center for Afghanistan in Termez will expand access to quality education for Afghan citizens, as well as provide an educational environment and technologies for vocational training.

Therefore, Central and South Asia, dynamically developing regions with stable economic growth and new development opportunities, have significant potential due to their rich resources, economic complementarity, demographic potential, common tasks, and geographical proximity. At the same time, Uzbekistan’s efforts are aimed at integrating the two regions within a single space of cooperation, security, and sustainable development.

In these processes, the “Termez platform” not only serves as a constructive mechanism for ensuring security and stability in Central and South Asia, but also has the potential to become an additional tool for developing trade, economic and transport links between the regions. At the same time, a promising area of cooperation for both regions is considered to be, first of all, security issues, including the fight against terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking, as well as the development of interaction in the fields of transport, tourism, and education.

Gulamov Asliddin Gapparovich,

Researcher at the Higher School of Strategic Analysis and Prognosis of the Republic of Uzbekistan

The Resolution signed by the President of Uzbekistan “On measures to introduce a system of continuous improvement of knowledge of the population and civil servants in the fight against corruption” caused an interested discussion in the international expert community.

Alexander Klishin, adviser at the UN Office of Rule of Law and Security Institutions:

– This initiative marks a significant step in the fight against corruption not only for Uzbekistan, but also on the international arena. The Virtual Anti-Corruption Academy is a leading initiative of the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, aimed at introducing a system of continuous improvement of knowledge among the population and civil servants in the fight against corruption.

The initiative is perfectly aligned with global efforts to promote integrity, transparency and accountability across all sectors of the economy. Uzbekistan has once again reaffirmed its commitment to building a society free of corruption, where integrity, transparency and accountability are the cornerstones of public administration. The Anti-Corruption Virtual Academy fully embodies these values and serves as a commendable example for other countries.

Anas Fayyad Qarman, UNDP Resident Representative a.i. in Uzbekistan:

– We are pleased to know the adoption of the Resolution of the President of Uzbekistan regarding the Virtual Anti-Corruption Academy. We view this measure as an important step towards further strengthening the anti-corruption ecosystem.

We have been cooperating with the Anti-Corruption Agency in various areas a long while, including the development of a compliance control system in government agencies and organizations. We are also jointly developing various digital solutions to combat corruption in the public sector. In my opinion, a distinctive feature of a new Academy is its availability to both civil servants and ordinary citizens.

Antti Karttunen, Head of OSCE Project Coordinator in Uzbekistan:

– The initiative of the President of Uzbekistan to create a Virtual Anti-Corruption Academy is a time requirement and will help find answers to many questions related to this area.

Like the Law ‘On Conflict of Interest’ recently signed by the President, it is another important step in the fight against corruption in Uzbekistan.

We look forward to continuing to support the improvement of legislation in the field of combating corruption, as well as to improve the qualification of employees of government bodies and organizations through the Virtual Academy and support all other efforts of Uzbekistan in this area.

Tuija Brax, Director of the Rule of Law Center, former Minister of Justice (Finland):

– It is my great honor to express a few words about the new Virtual Anti-Corruption Academy in Uzbekistan. We have been cooperating with the Anti-Corruption Agency of Uzbekistan for several years now, and I was greatly impressed by the initiatives of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to combat corruption in the country, measures to improve legislation in this area and efforts to raise public awareness. The new Virtual Academy is a unique opportunity to raise awareness, develop special courses for different target groups, and also attract young people to study this field, since ultimately it is about the future of Uzbekistan.

Quentin Reed, Professor of Oxford University, INGO Regional Dialogue’s Anti-Corruption Specialist (United Kingdom):

– I am happy to hear about the President signing the Resolution, which provides for the establishment of the Virtual Anti-Corruption Academy. International NGO Regional Dialogue and the Anti-Corruption Agency have been cooperating for several years in developing preventive anti-corruption measures in Uzbekistan. We express our readiness to provide full-fledged support in the development of educational modules and programs within the Virtual Academy, as awareness-raising, education and training are key tools in the prevention of corruption. Appropriate anti-corruption system cannot be established without them. This is particularly important for public servants, especially those in vulnerable situations, but I would also pay particular attention to citizens.

Nuripa Mukanova, Secretary General, the Anti-Corruption Business Council under the President of Kyrgyzstan:

– My congratulations to the people of Uzbekistan and the Anti-Corruption Agency on the establishment of the Virtual Anti-Corruption Academy. The opening of this Academy is important for both Uzbekistan and the countries of Central Asia. This is a very important anti-corruption measure and platform for increasing the capacity of all those directly involved in anti-corruption issues, as well as those who want to increase their capacity, knowledge and skills in the field of combating and preventing corruption. This platform will also allow young people who study and then enter public service to improve their anti-corruption skills.

Dunyo IA

Belarus and Uzbekistan actively cooperate in the transport and logistics sector within the framework of the Coordinating Transport Conference of the CIS Member States (CIS CTC), the Organization for Cooperation of Railways (OSJD), and the Commonwealth Railway Transport Council (CIS RTC).

An additional basis for the development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation is the participation of both countries in the CIS and SCO, where issues of developing international transport corridors and strengthening transport connectivity between states occupy an important place on the cooperation agenda.

A practical result of cooperation is the steady positive growth in freight traffic between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Republic of Belarus, which is one of the republic's key trade and transport partners.

In terms of export and import freight volumes, Belarus is among Uzbekistan's top ten trading partners. By the end of 2025, freight traffic between the two countries reached 850,000 tons, an increase of 30% compared to the previous year.

The structure of freight traffic is dominated by imports, primarily timber, timber products, and food products, while export volumes remain insignificant and consist primarily of agricultural products.

The current situation demonstrates significant potential for increasing mutual freight traffic, primarily through the expansion of Uzbek exports and the development of new logistics routes.

In the context of geopolitical conflicts and the diversification of global supply chains, the creation of new international transport corridors in Eurasia using mixed modes of transport in the East-West and North-South directions is acquiring strategic importance.

The following are promising cooperation projects:

1. Development of new, optimal alternative transport routes with access to seaports.

A promising area is the development of the international transport route "Belarus – Russia – Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – Indian Ocean ports," which utilizes the shortest railway section running through Kazakhstan between the Dina Nurpeisova and Karakalpakstan stations.

On November 1, 2023, in Tashkent, at the SCO Transport Forum, the transport ministers of Uzbekistan, Russia, and Kazakhstan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the creation and development of this corridor. Belarus and Pakistan joined the Memorandum in 2024, and negotiations are currently underway to add Afghanistan.

The economic logic of the project is very clear. The corridor is approximately half the length of existing alternative routes and reduces delivery times by 2-3 times. It will directly connect the countries of the European Union and the CIS with Southeast and South Asia via a land-based rail and road route, increasing our countries' transit potential by transporting goods to the densely populated countries of South Asia – India and Pakistan – via the Uzbekistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan route.

In the future, joint work is planned to develop uniform standards for the operation of the international transport corridor, including the introduction of a single shipping document and the unification of technological and technical standards.

It should be noted that the new route through Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will contribute to the diversification of the geography and structure of foreign trade and will lead to an increase in the region's transit potential.

This potential is already being demonstrated in practice. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, freight transit to the south through Uzbekistan increased by 23% compared to the same period last year, reaching 1.8 million tons, of which 1.3 million tons were transported by rail and 0.5 million tons by road.

1. Cooperation in Transport Personnel Training.

A significant element of the long-term partnership is cooperation in the training and advanced training of transport specialists.

Belarus has a recognized track record in transport training. For example, the Belarusian State University of Transport in Gomel is a leading specialized educational and research institution, which includes the Institute for Advanced Training and Retraining of Personnel and the Research Institute of Railway Transport.

Developing cooperation between the Belarusian State University of Transport and specialized organizations in Uzbekistan, particularly the Tashkent State Transport University, would enable the organization of internships and advanced training programs for specialists, the development of academic mobility for undergraduate, graduate, and postgraduate students, and joint research in priority areas of rail transport development, multimodal transportation, and international transport logistics.

III. Digitalization of Permit Exchange for Road Transport.

A separate practical area is the transition to the electronic exchange of permit forms—the E-permit system. Uzbekistan currently fully implements this exchange with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, and Turkey, and partially with Tajikistan. Work is underway to launch it with Turkmenistan.

Implementing this system in cooperation with Belarus will ensure transparency in permit distribution, eliminate human error, and strengthen oversight of their use, which is especially relevant given the growing volume of road transport between the countries.

Thus, cooperation between Belarus and Uzbekistan in transport and logistics goes beyond increasing mutual traffic and acquires a strategic dimension.

The implementation of these projects—from a multimodal corridor to Indian Ocean ports to the digitalization of permitting procedures—could transform our countries' geographical location into a real competitive advantage, making the Belarus-Uzbekistan-South Asia route convenient, fast, and predictable.

Joint and consistent work in these areas will strengthen economic ties between the two countries and make a significant contribution to the development of sustainable transport connectivity in the Eurasian space.

Head of Department, Center for the Study of Transport and Logistics Development Problems under the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Uzbekistan Dildora Ibragimova

The Fifth Tashkent International Investment Forum will take place on June 16–19, 2026. This year’s theme – “Investment Resilience: New Frontiers, New Partnerships” – frames the agenda around a set of pressing questions: how to protect capital amid global uncertainty, what institutional mechanisms enhance investment resilience in frontier markets, and where the new partnership routes lie.

The forum’s context is set by macroeconomic results. According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025 and exceeded $147 billion – the fastest pace since 2021 and among the highest in the Europe and Central Asia region. Fitch Ratings and S&P Global upgraded the country’s sovereign rating from BB– to BB for the first time, while Moody’s revised its outlook to “positive.” International reserves, per the Central Bank, surpass $77 billion. Exports rose 24% to $33.8 billion. Foreign direct investment increased by 46.9%, with FDI accounting for 40.5% of total capital investment. For an economy that attracted only $4 billion in annual foreign investment in 2017, the surge to $42 billion by 2025 represents a fundamentally different scale of growth. This tenfold increase over eight years underscores a profound transformation in the nation's investment landscape.

The forum is scaling alongside the economy. Last year’s TIIF drew over 8,000 participants, including some 3,000 international delegates from 97 countries. Guests included Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, heads of government from all Central Asian states, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, and New Development Bank President Dilma Rousseff. The aggregate value of signed investment contracts and trade agreements reached $30.5 billion. Yet what best speaks to the platform’s maturity is not the number of signings but the conversion rate – the share of agreements that translate into operating assets is increasingly the metric that matters to returning investors.

The centrepiece of this year’s forum will be the Tashkent International Financial Centre (TIFC), established by presidential decree in March 2026. Behind the headline sits a specific institutional architecture: a special legal regime based on common-law principles, a dedicated financial services regulator, an arbitration centre (TIAC), and tax exemptions through 2076. TIFC is part of a global trend toward specialised financial hubs that offer international market participants a familiar legal environment and regulatory predictability. Its defining feature is integration within the country’s legal framework: the centre operates under a special legal regime rather than creating a separate jurisdiction, reducing regulatory fragmentation and simplifying engagement with the domestic economy. A panel session featuring leaders of major global financial centres and international investors operating in Uzbekistan will address the central question: what are the practical conditions under which TIFC can attract international market participants.

The TIIF 2026 programme is structured around four thematic pillars: investment resilience and capital protection mechanisms, financial infrastructure and capital market development, trade connectivity and logistics corridors, and energy transition and climate finance. Key sessions include a discussion of the regulatory framework for alternative investment funds (a legal basis for private equity and venture capital being adopted for the first time), a panel on the Middle Corridor and trans-Caspian logistics, a session on sovereign ratings across Central Asia, and a practitioner-led workshop on blended finance instruments in frontier markets. A dedicated arbitration and dispute resolution track features two panel sessions co-organised with the Tashkent International Arbitration Centre (TIAC), the British-Uzbek Legal Association (BrULA), and the British Embassy. Topics range from the institutional design of Uzbekistan’s arbitration ecosystem – including the innovative Dispute Avoidance Protocol (DAP) – to the country’s positioning within the global investment protection architecture: ISDS frameworks, bilateral investment treaty reform, and New York Convention enforcement.

The energy agenda warrants particular attention. Uzbekistan has set an ambitious target of raising the share of renewables in electricity generation to 54% by 2030. Currently, the country operates solar and wind facilities with a combined installed capacity exceeding 4 GW, with a project pipeline envisaging an additional 19 GW of green capacity. Alongside this, the public-private partnership mechanism continues to develop: as of early 2025, PPP agreements worth approximately $28 billion had been signed in the country. For investors, this represents a large, structured market with standardised PPA contracts and a clear entry mechanism – a subject that will be examined in detail during the forum’s energy panel.

TIIF 2026 retains its bilateral business forum format, reflecting the expanding geography of Uzbekistan’s economic partnerships. Confirmed platforms include business forums with the Republic of Korea, the United States, Croatia, Hungary, Turkey, and Albania, as well as a China–SCO countries investment dialogue; the lineup continues to grow as the event approaches. The plenary session featuring heads of state and government will set the tone for the business programme. Running in parallel is an exhibition of industrial and investment potential spanning approximately 6,000 sq m – in 2025, a comparable facility facilitated over 500 B2B and B2G meetings for 100 participating companies.

At the same time, the forum agenda implicitly flags unresolved challenges. The corporate governance session raises the question of transitioning from concentrated to dispersed ownership – a process without which the stock market will remain illiquid. The discussion of privatisation and state asset IPOs calls for a candid conversation about pacing and institutional quality. The responsible business conduct panel, anchored in OECD standards, recognises that tax incentives alone are insufficient for accessing institutional capital – what is needed is verifiable supply chain transparency and functioning National Contact Point mechanisms.

The business programme is complemented by networking formats: an FIC and EY business breakfast on digitalisation and AI, the annual SQB Investor Day, an ESG Award ceremony, and the European Business Evening. The informal component – an invitational tennis tournament, TIIF Open, and an evening run – is designed for delegates who prefer to build relationships beyond the conference hall. The anniversary evening concludes with a collaboration with the Stihia electronic music festival – a detail that captures the tone in which Uzbekistan presents itself to an international audience.

For Uzbekistan, TIIF has long ceased to be a showcase. It is a working instrument of investment policy, whose effectiveness is measured not by the number of signing ceremonies but by the volume of capital that actually enters the economy between forums. The fifth, anniversary edition takes place at a moment when the country is simultaneously launching an international financial centre, adopting an alternative investment funds law, and receiving a sovereign rating upgrade – a convergence that creates a window of opportunity for investors prepared to operate in frontier markets with a growing institutional base.

The Regional Environmental Summit, to be held on 22–24 April 2026 in Astana, Kazakhstan, is of significant importance for Central Asia. Above all, it serves as clear evidence that the countries of the region are jointly seeking solutions to complex challenges such as climate change, water scarcity and land degradation. This reflects a transition to a new phase of environmental policy—one grounded in strong and sustained cooperation.

Shared Challenges Require Collective Solutions

Environmental challenges in Central Asia do not recognize national borders. The tragedy of the Aral Sea, inefficient use of transboundary water resources, desertification, and air pollution affect not just individual countries, but the future of the entire region.

In recent decades, unsustainable water management—particularly in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins—has increased pressure on both ecosystems and economic resilience. In this context, the regional summit represents a practical step forward—from acknowledging shared challenges to addressing them collectively.

The summit agenda outlines eight priority areas, reflecting a comprehensive approach to environmental policy. These include climate change mitigation; ensuring food security and ecosystem resilience; adaptation to natural risks and strengthening economic resilience; reducing air pollution and improving waste management; developing mechanisms to achieve environmental goals; sustainable management of natural resources; a just and inclusive green transition; and the development of environmental and digital competencies.

Thus, the summit agenda encompasses not only environmental, but also socio-economic dimensions.

Support for this initiative at the United Nations level adds considerable political and international weight to the process. It sends a strong signal that environmental issues are no longer confined to nature conservation alone—they are increasingly matters of security, economic stability and social well-being.

The participation of international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, is particularly important. It expands the potential to translate environmental initiatives into concrete projects, as addressing these challenges requires not only political commitments, but also substantial financial resources and advanced technologies.

The Green Transition: Opportunity or Challenge?

The concept of a “green transition” occupies a central place in the summit agenda. For Central Asian countries, this process is inherently dual in nature.

On the one hand, the transition to a green economy offers opportunities to attract investment, foster innovation and create new jobs. The development of renewable energy, resource-efficient technologies and sustainable agriculture can serve as key drivers of economic growth.

On the other hand, this transition requires large-scale reforms. Modernizing outdated infrastructure, upgrading industry, and strengthening environmental awareness among the population are complex and demanding tasks. This is precisely why the emphasis on a “just and inclusive green transition” is of fundamental importance.

Uzbekistan: Advancing Reforms and Environmental Initiatives

For Uzbekistan, the summit provides an important platform to present its environmental policy on the international stage. In recent years, the country has been implementing large-scale initiatives and programmes such as “Yashil Makon,” “Toza Havo,” “Bio Meros,” “Territory Without Waste” and “Eco-Culture,” demonstrating its proactive stance on the environmental agenda.

Particular attention is being given to the restoration of the Aral Sea region. Practical measures undertaken in this area position Uzbekistan as a significant partner not only regionally, but also globally, creating favorable conditions for attracting investment and expanding international cooperation.

Key Expected Outcomes of the Summit

The summit is expected to result in the signing of a number of strategically important documents, including a Joint Declaration of the Heads of State of Central Asia; a Regional Cooperation Programme with the United Nations for 2026–2030; memorandums on biodiversity, ecotourism, and ecosystem protection; agreements on the establishment of a regional early warning system for wildfires; and initiatives to create a transboundary “Peace Park.”

These documents will form a solid foundation for long-term cooperation and financing of environmental projects.

Conclusion: A Regional Response to Global Challenges

The Regional Environmental Summit highlights the growing role of Central Asia in the global environmental agenda. The forum represents an important step toward the development of a unified regional strategy aimed at reducing climate risks, conserving natural resources and ensuring sustainable development.

For decades, Afghanistan was perceived primarily as a source of instability, geopolitical rivalry and security threats. In recent years, however, the regional agenda surrounding Afghanistan has gradually been shifting. Increasingly, expert and diplomatic circles in the Central Asian states are discussing not only the question of security but also Afghanistan’s potential as a transport, energy and trade corridor capable of linking Central and South Asia.

In this context, the «Termez Dialogue»^[1] acquires particular significance as a platform symbolizing the transition from a policy of isolation to a pragmatic model of regional interaction. For Uzbekistan and its neighbors, the issue is no longer merely the stabilization of Afghanistan, but the formation of a new geoeconomic architecture for Eurasia.

From a Geopolitical Buffer to a Geoeconomic Bridge

Historically, Afghanistan lay at the crossroads of major trade routes connecting the East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, however, the country became a space of geopolitical confrontation among world powers rather than a territory of cooperation.

Today the situation is gradually changing under the influence of several factors at once. Firstly, global logistics is undergoing a profound transformation. Geopolitical tension, sanctions restrictions and crises affecting traditional transport routes are forcing states to seek new paths for trade and transit. Secondly, the Central Asian states are increasingly striving to diversify their foreign economic ties and reduce their dependence on a limited number of transport directions.

Against this backdrop, Afghanistan is acquiring new significance as the shortest overland route capable of providing the Central Asian states with access to the ports of the Indian Ocean through the territory of Pakistan.        Whereas the Afghan factor was once viewed primarily through the lens of threats, today growing attention is being paid to its transit potential.

Of particular importance in this regard is the project of the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor^[2]. Initially, the principal route was considered to be Termez – Mazar-i-Sharif – Kabul – Peshawar. However, by 2025 the states of the region moved^[3] to elaborating a new direction: Termez – Naibabad – Maidan Shahr – Logar – Kharlachi. This route implies access to the Pakistani railway network through the Kharlachi border crossing and is regarded as more realistic in terms of security, cost, and implementation timelines.

The realization of this project could substantially reshape^[4] the transport geography of the region. For the Central Asian states, this would mean: a reduction in cargo delivery times; a decrease in transport costs; access to the new markets of South Asia; an expansion of export opportunities; a strengthening of the region’s transit potential.

Especially important is the fact that this concerns access to the South Asian market, with a population of nearly two billion people. For the export-oriented economies of Central Asia, this opens up fundamentally new prospects.

Equally important are the energy projects passing through Afghanistan. Among them are CASA-1000 and the TAPI gas pipeline, both intended to facilitate electricity and natural gas supplies between Central and South Asia.

These processes reflect a broader transformation of regional politics: states increasingly view Afghanistan not only as a source of risk but also as an important element of the transport architecture of Eurasia. Priority is shifting more and more from politically symbolic objectives toward the pragmatic logic of transit, connectivity, and economic efficiency.

Termez — the Southern Gateway of Central Asia

A special role in shaping the new regional interaction is played by Termez - the southernmost city of Uzbekistan, which is gradually turning into an important logistical, diplomatic, and humanitarian center. Its significance is reinforced by its unique geographical position: the city lies in the immediate proximity of the Afghan border, connected to it by a bridge across the Amudarya river, across which hundreds of cargo trucks and substantial flows of humanitarian aid and commercial goods pass daily^[5].

In logistical terms, Termez relies on developed infrastructure, including an international transport and logistics hub and a rail connection with the Afghan city of Hairatan, through which millions of tons of cargo are transshipped each year. This corridor is considered one of the most stable and manageable routes of regional trade with Afghanistan.

An additional dimension of Termez’s role is formed by its humanitarian component: the city operates^[6] as a platform for coordinating international assistance to Afghanistan, where deliveries of food, medicine, and basic goods are regularly carried out with the participation of international organizations. In 2025, the hub was incorporated into the UNHCR Global Supply Network, through which humanitarian aid shipments worth more than $500 million are distributed annually^[7].

At the same time, through Termez, Uzbekistan is actively promoting the concept of regional connectivity, in which Afghanistan is viewed not as a peripheral zone of instability but as a transit bridge capable of linking the markets of Central and South Asia. In this context, Termez is becoming not merely a border town, but an infrastructural and politico-economic node of a new regional architecture founded on pragmatism, trade interdependence, and phased integration.

In this context, Uzbekistan has attempted to institutionalize this Forum. Thus, in 2025 the international forum “Termez Dialogue” was held in Termez, devoted to questions of peace, stability, and economic interaction with Afghanistan. It was attended by representatives of the Central and South Asian states, as well as international organizations, including UN structures. The forum became one of the first attempts to institutionalize the discussion of Afghanistan precisely as an economic partner of the region.

Earlier, in 2021, Uzbekistan initiated^[8] the international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities,” held in Tashkent. One of the central themes of the event was the role of Afghanistan as a transit link between the two macro-regions. The conference was attended by representatives of more than 40 states and international organizations, which underscored the global interest in the Uzbek initiative.

The Termez Dialogue as a New Model of Regionalism

Under present-day conditions, the “Termez Dialogue” acquires significance not only as a diplomatic platform but also as a symbol of a new model of regional interaction.

What is at issue is the formation of an approach in which the states of the region strive to build mechanisms of cooperation independently, proceeding above all from common economic interests and mutual infrastructural interdependence.

In this sense, Afghanistan is gradually becoming not an object of external administration but a potential participant in a new system of regional connectivity.

For Central Asia, the development of the southern direction means an expansion of strategic autonomy, a diversification of foreign economic routes, and a strengthening of its own agency in international relations.

It is precisely for this reason that the future of Afghanistan is increasingly viewed not only as a question of security but also as a question of regional integration, logistics and geoeconomics.

Conclusion

Today Afghanistan stands at a historical crossroads. The country may either remain a space of chronic instability or gradually be transformed into a vital transport and economic bridge between Central and South Asia.

To a large extent, the outcome will depend on the ability of the regional states to construct a long-term strategy of cooperation founded not only on questions of security but also on the development of infrastructure, trade, and mutual economic interest.

In this process, Termez is already becoming one of the key centers of the new Eurasian interaction - a space in which the transition from geopolitical rivalry to geoeconomic partnership is taking shape.

Aziza Mukhammedova

Research Fellow

Center for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies at the

Institute for Advanced International Studies

[1]  https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/21/central-asian-countries-push-for-regional-development-at-termez-dialogue

[2] https://pakistan.mfa.uz/ru/news/trans-afghan-corridor-a-new-bridge-connecting-central-asia-with-the-world-1

[3] https://kun.uz/en/news/2025/07/18/uzbekistan-afghanistan-and-pakistan-agree-to-develop-new-railway-corridor

[4] https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/uzbekistan-and-the-new-realities-of-trans-afghan-trade/

[5] https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-offers-to-act-as-hub-for-afghanistan-aid

[6] https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/uzbekistan-steps-support-neighbor-afghanistan-critical-humanitarian-juncture

[7] https://iica.uz/ru/news/2025/02/13/termiz-logistik-habi-bmtning-global-yetkazib-berish-tarmogiga-qoshildi

[8] https://www.uzembassy.uk/news/990

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has prepared an infographic presenting key indicators of trade, economic and investment cooperation between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over a nine-year period.

In recent years, economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan has been steadily expanding, now encompassing not only trade but also industrial cooperation across various sectors, particularly energy and agriculture.

A solid legal framework has been established to support bilateral cooperation across multiple areas. In 2018, the countries signed a Treaty on Strategic Partnership, followed by a Treaty on Allied Relations in 2024.

Tajikistan is among Uzbekistan’s key trade and economic partners, ranking 9th among importers of Uzbek goods and accounting for 2% of Uzbekistan’s total exports.

Bilateral trade between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is conducted under a free trade regime, with total trade turnover approaching $1 bn.

Bilateral Trade Indicators

Trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan increased 3.8 times over 2017–2025, from $237.9 mln to $912.4 mln. Exports grew 3.7 times, from $186.1 mln to $683.1 mln, while imports rose 4.4 times, from $51.8 mln to $229.3 mln. Uzbekistan’s positive trade balance expanded 3.4 times, from $134.3 mln to $453.8 mln.

In 2025, compared to 2024, trade turnover increased by 29.9%, exports by 24.1%, and imports by 13.8%.

The structure of Uzbekistan’s exports to Tajikistan in 2025 totaled $683.1 mln and included: industrial goods (various knitted and felt products, plastic products, rolled metal, etc.) – $222.7 mln (32.6%); machinery and transport equipment (including electrical goods) – $58.7 mln (8.6%); petroleum products (gasoline, gas oil, bitumen) – $53.1 mln (7.8%); chemical products (polymers, sulfates, silicates, fertilizers, paints) – $53 mln (7.8%); food products (animal feed, eggs, confectionery, processed meat products, etc.) – $48.2 mln (7.1%); miscellaneous manufactured goods (construction materials, ready-made garments, silk fabrics) – $21 mln (3.1%); non-food raw materials– $8.1 mln (1.2%); other goods (including goods traded by individuals) – $70.1 mln (10.3%); as well as services (mainly railway transport) – $147.4 mln (21.6%).

The structure of imports from Tajikistan in 2025 totaled $229.3 mln and included: metal ores and concentrates (zinc, copper and precious metals) – $108.9 mln (47.5%); coal – $22.3 mln (9.7%); aluminum – $25.4 mln (11%); electricity – $17.9 mln (7.8%); cotton fiber – $17.6 mln (7.8%); fruits – $7.4 mln (3.2%); ferrous metals – $5.1 mln (2.2%); poultry — $2.4 mln (1.1%); plastic waste – $1.8 mln (0.8%); sulfur, feldspar and others; as well as services (mainly railway transport) – $6.6 mln (2.9%).

Investment Cooperation

As of March 1, 2026, there are 420 enterprises in Uzbekistan with Tajik investment (2.2% of the total number of enterprises with foreign investment), including 110 joint ventures and 310 enterprises with 100% Tajik capital.

In 2025, compared to 2024, the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) and loans attracted from Tajikistan tripled, increasing from $64 mln to $196 mln. Over 2017–2025, the total volume of attracted FDI and loans from Tajikistan amounted to $373 mln.

The main areas of activity of enterprises with Tajik capital include trade, construction materials production, food industry, transport and other services.

Enterprises with Uzbek investment are also successfully operating in Tajikistan. In particular, major joint projects are being implemented in the energy sector, including the construction of hydropower plants on the Zarafshan River. With the participation of private capital from Uzbekistan, the joint venture “Artel Avesto Electronics” was established in Tajikistan in 2019, producing more than 10 types of household appliances.

Prospects for Trade Expansion

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan share a common border and have well-developed transport infrastructure. Given the short delivery distances, transportation costs can be relatively low, which creates favorable conditions for expanding exports.

In this context, Tajikistan represents a promising market for increasing exports of finished products from Uzbekistan that are not produced domestically in Tajikistan and are imported. These include automobiles, household appliances—especially large-sized goods such as refrigerators, washing machines and air conditioners—as well as certain food products, textiles, chemical and other goods.

On 23 September this year, a regular meeting of the Central Election Commission was held to discuss the accreditation of observers from abroad and from international organizations, as well as the organization of the activities of the Instant Information Center.

The interest of foreign countries and international organizations in the elections to the representative bodies of state power, which will be held this year in accordance with the updated electoral legislation, is extremely high.

In particular, it is expected that more than 1,000 international and foreign observers will participate in observing the elections, particularly about 400 from 50 countries, about 500 from 21 international organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Organization of Turkic States and another 60 from the election commissions of 26 foreign countries.

It should be noted that the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe intends to participate in the observation of the elections in Uzbekistan with a comprehensive mission consisting of a core group, long-term and short-term observers, about 350 observers in total.

The great interest of foreign states and international organizations in the elections in Uzbekistan testifies to the international community's recognition of the democratic reforms being carried out in our country.

Accordingly, it was decided at the Central Election Commission meeting to accredit observers from international organizations who will participate in the elections to the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis and the local Councils (Kengashes), and some observers from international organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the CIS Inter-parliamentary Assembly and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe were accredited.

As of today, foreign and international organizations wishing to accredit observers can log into the “E-Saylov” information system in their country and enter data electronically in a specific format and submit it for review.

Another notable aspect of this process is that new samples of mandates of accredited foreign observers are automatically generated electronically through this system.

Also at the meeting of the Central Election Commission, the relevant decision was taken on the establishment of the Instant Information Center – “Call Center” - and the approval of its statutes. The “Call Center” will receive citizens' complaints centrally and provide them with legal explanations and consultations in real time.

The main objectives of the “Call Center” are to establish a dialog with citizens in real time during the election campaign, to provide the population with complete and reliable information on the activities of the commissions, the stages of the electoral process, to create the necessary conditions for the unconditional realization of citizens' rights to vote and appeal, and to strengthen their awareness of electoral legislation and processes.

Central Election Commission Press Service

On 4-6 June, Tashkent will host the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia under the theme: “Peace, Connectivity, and Resilience: Shaping the Foundation for Shared Prosperity”.

Established in 2025 as a permanent international platform, the Termez Dialogue is intended to facilitate the practical advancement of the initiative put forward by the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, aimed at strengthening interconnectivity between Central and South Asia. This initiative has received broad international support and was enshrined in a special resolution adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 11 July 2022.

The current meeting is organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the Head of our State and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan in partnership with the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA).

The forum will bring together more than 150 representatives of political, business, and expert communities, as well as international and regional organizations from Central and South Asia, Europe, the CIS, the South Caucasus, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and the Americas. This underscores the inclusive and open nature of the Termez Dialogue as a comprehensive international platform for developing joint approaches to strengthening connectivity, trust, and sustainable development across the Eurasian space.

Partners and participants of the Dialogue include the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), as well as leading think tanks, research institutions, and peacebuilding organizations, including the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), the Center for Progressive Reforms, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the Berghof Foundation, PeaceNexus, Search for Common Ground, Georgetown University, and other organizations.

The forum programme includes a high-level plenary session on the theme: “Political Dialogue and Economic Connectivity as Pillars of Sustainable Development in the CICA Region”, as well as two special thematic sessions dedicated to joint climate change adaptation and environmental sustainability, and to deepening cultural and humanitarian cooperation.

The event will also feature expert and academic discussions, as well as side events devoted to regional security, expanding engagement with Afghanistan, including the development of the Afghanistan–Uzbekistan–Pakistan dialogue, strengthening transport and logistics connectivity, fostering regional trust, and advancing a common sustainable development agenda. Particular attention will be paid to issues of Central Asian regional identity, as well as to expanding youth cooperation in the fields of peacebuilding and sustainable development.

The forum programme also envisages off-site sessions. Participants of the Dialogue are scheduled to visit Termez, where they will have an opportunity to familiarize themselves with the modern trade, economic, and logistics infrastructure supporting cooperation with South Asian countries, including the operations of the Airitom International Trade Center and the international logistics hub Termez Cargo Center, as well as experience the rich cultural and historical heritage of the ancient city.

The third day of the Dialogue will take place in Samarkand, where delegates will explore the unique civilizational heritage of the Samarkand Renaissance, which historically served as a bridge between East and West, North and South.

The meeting is expected to conclude with the adoption of a Communiqué intended to reaffirm the commitment to strengthening trust, advancing constructive cooperation, and promoting sustainable connectivity between Central and South Asia.

Dunyo IA