The text of the article is in Uzbek!

In October, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, will pay a state visit to the Kingdom of Belgium, during which important decisions are expected to be made that will mark a qualitatively new stage in relations between Uzbekistan and the European Union. In particular, the visit will feature the signing of the Agreement on Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been actively shaping a new framework of engagement with Europe – a key pillar of stability amid current geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty. The ties between Uzbekistan and European countries continue to grow, and the areas of cooperation are diversifying, supported by the ongoing reforms in Uzbekistan.

Building a New Chapter in Relations

After gaining independence, Uzbekistan’s relations with the European Union developed dynamically. A Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of Uzbekistan and the European Commission was signed in 1992, followed by the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1994. The foundation of cooperation was laid by the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) signed in June 1996 and entering into force in 1999. However, at a certain stage, cooperation faced difficulties due to the insufficient pace of democratic reforms in Uzbekistan.

With the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as President, the situation changed dramatically. As early as 2017, during his visit to Tashkent, Stefano Manservisi, Director-General for International Cooperation and Development of the European Commission, stated that “the EU regards Uzbekistan as a strategic partner.” The sweeping democratic and economic reforms launched in Uzbekistan helped resolve within a short period many issues that had long remained unsolved. Forced labor was completely eradicated, and reforms in the cotton sector enabled the country to abandon raw cotton exports altogether.

As reforms advanced, the legal and institutional framework of relations with Europe expanded rapidly. While previously Uzbekistan and the EU granted each other most-favored-nation treatment under the PCA, in April 2021 the EU granted Uzbekistan GSP+ beneficiary status, and in 2022 the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) was initialed.

Along with internal transformation, Uzbekistan’s foreign policy architecture also changed. Priority was given to closer cooperation with neighboring Central Asian states, as well as the active expansion of ties with European countries – a vector that has strengthened steadily in recent years.

Just in the past year, Uzbekistan established strategic partnership relations with France, Italy, and Slovakia, while discussions on expanding strategic cooperation with Hungary continued. President Mirziyoyev also visited Slovenia, and Italy’s Prime Minister and Bulgaria’s President visited Uzbekistan.

A milestone in strengthening relations between Uzbekistan and Europe, and between Europe and Central Asia as a whole – was the first EU–Central Asia Summit, held in Samarkand in April 2025 under the chairmanship of Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Uzbekistan presented a broad range of initiatives to create a new model of regional cooperation between Central Asia and Europe, including: a multilateral agreement on investment protection and promotion; the launch of a Central Asia–EU Joint Chamber of Commerce; the adoption of a regional support program for SMEs and women’s entrepreneurship; the establishment of an investment platform to promote regional projects in green energy, innovation, transport, infrastructure, and agriculture.

The Samarkand Summit was highly productive. A Joint Declaration was adopted, establishing a strategic partnership between the two regions in trade, transport, energy, digital connectivity, and water management. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU had prepared a €12 billion investment package for Central Asia under the Global Gateway initiative.

The Trajectory of Economic Cooperation

Uzbekistan’s deep democratic transformations have significantly improved relations with European countries. Economic reforms have enhanced the competitiveness of Uzbekistan’s economy, stimulating investor confidence and growing interest from European businesses.

The results are impressive. Over the past 8 years, Uzbekistan’s GDP has doubled, reaching $115 billion in 2024. Since 2017, investment in fixed capital has totaled $240 billion, of which foreign investment exceeded $130 billion. The country’s foreign exchange reserves surpassed $48 billion for the first time in history. Structurally, the share of industry in the economy increased from 20% to 26%, and services from 44% to 47%. Labor productivity (GDP per employed person) rose by 45%.

As a result, opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation between Uzbek and European businesses have expanded. Between 2017 and 2024, Uzbekistan’s trade with the EU increased 2.4 times to $6.4 billion; exports grew 3.6 times to $1.7 billion, and imports 2.2 times to $4.7 billion. In 2024, the EU’s share in Uzbekistan’s total trade turnover was 9.7%, in exports 6.3%, and in imports 12%. The EU ranked third among Uzbekistan’s trade partners, after China and Russia.

The EU’s share in Uzbekistan’s total exports increased from 3.8% to 6.3% over the same period. This growth was driven by Uzbekistan’s accession to the GSP+ preferential trade system, granting duty-free access to the EU market across roughly 6,200 tariff lines. The share of Uzbekistan’s exports benefiting from GSP+ reached 59%, with a preference utilization rate of 84%, indicating efficient use of trade benefits.

In 2024, Uzbekistan’s exports to the EU were dominated by chemical products (52.1%), as well as textiles, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, minerals, and food products. Among EU members, France accounted for 47.2% of exports, Lithuania for 10%, and Latvia for 6.9%.

Uzbekistan’s imports from the EU significantly exceeded exports – a reflection of the ongoing technological modernization of the national economy. Around 16% of Uzbekistan’s total imports of machinery, equipment, and transport vehicles come from EU countries.

Investment cooperation is also expanding rapidly. In 2024, foreign investments and loans from EU countries and their financial institutions increased by 77%, reaching $4.1 billion (compared to $2.3 billion in 2023). The most active investors were Germany ($1.37 billion), the Netherlands ($1.05 billion), Cyprus ($858.9 million), the Czech Republic ($137.8 million), Italy ($99.8 million), and Sweden ($97.5 million). Today, around 1,000 enterprises with EU capital operate in Uzbekistan, with a total project portfolio of €30 billion.

A special role in recent years belongs to the EBRD, of which Uzbekistan has become one of the largest beneficiaries. The Bank’s total investments in Uzbekistan’s economy exceeded €5 billion, including around €1 billion in 2024, primarily directed toward the private sector.

Reforms in Uzbekistan have become the key driver for unlocking the significant potential of trade and economic cooperation with the European Union.

Uzbekistan–Belgium

The upcoming visit will also focus on strengthening relations between Uzbekistan and Belgium. Diplomatic relations were established following the opening of the Embassy of Uzbekistan in Brussels in 1993. In 1996, the two countries signed an Agreement on avoidance of double taxation, and in 1998 – an Agreement on mutual protection and promotion of investments, which provide legal guarantees for investors in both states.

Business contacts have intensified in parallel with Uzbekistan’s reform agenda. The visits of 2019 and 2022 set the tone for cooperation in infrastructure, energy, and the digital economy. More important than the current trade volumes has been the recognition and support of Uzbekistan’s reforms by EU partners, laying the foundation for long-term engagement.

In 2024, bilateral trade amounted to $62.3 million, including $7.3 million in Uzbek exports and $55 million in imports. Investment cooperation is gaining momentum: several dozen companies with Belgian capital now operate in Uzbekistan, including wholly owned enterprises. New technologies are being localized, for example, Jaga Climate Designers is participating in a joint venture for heating and ventilation systems, and Picanol Group is localizing the assembly of high-tech textile machinery. Belgian brands Belcolade and Prefamac are exploring opportunities to launch chocolate production with subsequent localization.

Despite modest trade volumes, there is significant potential for expanding cooperation in several areas. Given Belgium’s leading role in pharmaceuticals and biomedical research and Uzbekistan’s growing pharmaceutical market, joint ventures or industrial clusters could be developed in this sector, involving companies such as UCB and Janssen Pharmaceutica.

There is also strong potential for joint fruit and vegetable processing projects in Uzbekistan, targeting exports to the EU via Belgian logistics hubs such as the Port of Antwerp and wholesale markets. Potential partners include Greenyard and Puratos. Direct seasonal exports of fresh fruits (e.g., grapes in autumn and winter), as well as dried vegetables, spices, and organic products, could also be expanded. In light industry, there is room to increase exports of ready-made knitwear and home textiles, provided European quality and safety standards are met. The market potential is evident – Belgium imported about $7.9 billion worth of clothing in 2024.

The main challenges remain logistics and standards. Belgium functions as a major EU maritime hub centered around Antwerp, while direct routes from Uzbekistan are still limited. The near-term priority should be pilot supply chains ensuring quality and traceability, the development of cold logistics, certification under EU technical and sanitary regulations, the use of Benelux consolidation hubs, and trade finance tools for SMEs. With the gradual development of new overland routes along the Middle Corridor, Uzbekistan will gain a stronger foothold in high value-added exports without higher costs or delivery delays.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan is entering a stage of deepened economic cooperation with the European Union. During the ongoing modernization and digital transformation of its economy, European investment, technology, education, and research experience can play a key role. At the same time, Uzbekistan seeks to expand exports of industrial goods as their quality improves.

Uzbekistan is also a rapidly growing market with a young and dynamic population, now reaching 38 million people – an 18% increase since 2017. Every year, around 700,000 economically active individuals enter the labor market, forming a substantial human resource base for the economy, including joint ventures.

As a result of poverty reduction policies, living standards and household incomes have risen significantly. Whereas a third of the population once lived below the poverty line, 7.5 million people have been lifted out of poverty, and the poverty rate declined to 8.9% in 2024, with plans to reduce it further to 6% this year. These policies not only address social challenges but also expand domestic demand, increasing the interest of European businesses in entering Uzbekistan’s market.

The further deepening of Uzbekistan’s economic engagement with the EU and Belgium is an objectively mutually beneficial process – one that will define the success of the upcoming state visit of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Belgium.

The agreements expected to be signed will help advance joint projects in sustainable energy and infrastructure, strengthen transport and technological connectivity between Central Asia and Europe, and position Europe as a key partner in Uzbekistan’s long-term growth and modernization trajectory.

 Obid Khakimov,  

Director of the Center for
Economic Research and Reforms

In the modern history of New Uzbekistan, protecting the rights, freedoms, and legitimate interests of its citizens – wherever in the world they may be – has become not merely a constitutional obligation, but the highest expression of the state's humanity and responsibility. One of the most challenging yet strategically significant tests of this commitment has been the repatriation of compatriots from conflict zones in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan was among the first countries in the world to shift from a policy of "estrangement" to one of "return and compassion," developing a distinctive rehabilitation model in the process.

The first such humanitarian operation was launched exactly seven years ago – on May 30, 2019 – on the personal directive of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. During that mission, 156 Uzbek nationals – predominantly women and children – were brought home from war-ravaged Syria. It was a defining moment: for the first time, the state openly declared its readiness to embrace citizens who had gone astray.

That operation marked the beginning of a series of missions conducted under the collective name "Mehr" (meaning compassion in Uzbek). The core philosophy behind President Mirziyoyev's initiative is that Uzbek citizens who found themselves in conflict zones through misguided choices retain the right to state protection and the opportunity for a new life.

Each mission was unique in its logistics, risk profile, and the circumstances of those being brought home. The second operation, Mehr-2, carried out in October 2019, was notable for the evacuation of 64 children from Baghdad, Iraq – children whose mothers remained imprisoned abroad and for whom Uzbekistan assumed full guardianship.

In December 2020, despite the sweeping restrictions of the global pandemic, Mehr-3 rescued 98 women and children from the Al-Hol and Roj camps in Syria, where they had been living in dire sanitary conditions. Many of the children bore shrapnel wounds and suffered from serious chronic illnesses. The operation was conducted with technical support from the United States and international organizations.

Mehr-4, carried out in February 2021, focused on Afghanistan, securing the return of 24 citizens caught in the crossfire of that country's protracted war.

The final stage, Mehr-5, was completed in April 2021, bringing home 92 individuals from Syria – 24 women and 68 children, including 7 who were complete orphans. This operation also refined a rapid documentation protocol: birth certificates were issued to children directly at the airport, ensuring they received immediate legal status upon arrival.

In total, the Mehr operations have repatriated more than 530 individuals, approximately 75% of whom are children. The guiding principle throughout has been unequivocal: children cannot be held responsible for the choices of their parents.

Repatriation is far more than a logistical exercise – it is the complex process of transforming yesterday's outcasts into full members of society. The Uzbek model rests on five pillars:

1. Legal Restoration. One hundred percent of repatriates have been provided with official documentation. Every child born in a conflict zone has received a Republic of Uzbekistan birth certificate, granting access to healthcare and education.
2. Economic Empowerment. The state has ensured that no one is left to face hardship alone. Through subsidized credit schemes and vocational training programs, women have found employment and established small businesses within their local communities, achieving economic independence. Repatriates also receive assistance in recovering housing rights lost during their absence, or are provided with subsidized rental accommodation.
3. Inclusive Education. Repatriated children attend mainstream schools – not segregated facilities – and participate in academic competitions and sporting events alongside their peers. To date, approximately 10 repatriates, including women, are enrolled in higher education institutions, and 9 children have become winners or prize-winners in national and regional academic olympiads.
4. Spiritual Guidance. Representatives of the Committee on Religious Affairs, alongside respected theologians and imams of the Muslim Board of Uzbekistan, conduct preventive counseling sessions, introducing repatriates to the tenets of traditional Hanafi Islam as a counter-narrative to extremist interpretations. More than 90% of returnees have successfully adapted and lead secular lives.
5. Community Engagement Through the Mahalla. Neighbors and community activists within the mahalla (traditional neighborhood institution) play an essential role in helping families reintegrate, preventing stigmatization, and fostering an atmosphere of genuine support. Each family is assigned an experienced mahalla mentor who assists with everyday challenges and monitors the family's wellbeing.

The outcomes of Uzbekistan's repatriation program are recognized by the international community as one of the most successful humanitarian models in the world. The United Nations has officially recommended the "Uzbek model" as a roadmap for other governments. Former UN Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov has repeatedly highlighted it as an example of how a state can effectively combine justice with compassion.

Rehabilitation and reintegration initiatives have also been advanced at the regional level. At the high-level international conference "Regional Cooperation of Central Asian Countries within the Framework of the Joint Plan of Action for the Implementation of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy," held in Tashkent on March 3–4, 2022, President Mirziyoyev proposed the establishment, under the auspices of the UN Counter-Terrorism Office, of a Regional Expert Council comprising leading specialists from Central Asian countries.

The Council was launched in May 2024, embodying broad support for the collaborative implementation of comprehensive rehabilitation and reintegration programs for individuals returned from conflict zones. It comprises more than 40 highly qualified experts from across Central Asia, including representatives of law enforcement and judicial bodies, as well as psychologists, theologians, medical professionals, and social workers.

The project has gained further credibility through the participation of prominent international bodies, including the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF), and the International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law (IIJ).

The Council's work has been presented at key UN platforms: in Geneva and New York on November 11 and December 10, 2024, respectively, and in Vienna on May 21, 2025.

Uzbekistan has demonstrated to the international community that repatriation is not a security risk – it is an instrument for strengthening security. International organizations are investing in Uzbekistan today not to remedy a problem, but to scale its success to other regions of the world.

The work with repatriates in Uzbekistan has now moved from a phase of emergency rescue to one of systemic integration. The country operates a well-functioning mechanism that combines state support with community oversight. The state ensures the full legal "erasure" of repatriates' past so that it does not obstruct their future. Where the early focus was on physical health, the emphasis has now shifted to mental wellbeing and civic identity. A repatriate in Uzbekistan in 2026 is a taxpayer, an active participant in mahalla life, and a parent whose children are building their futures within the country.

In contrast to those who chose to close their borders to their own citizens, Uzbekistan's leadership chose the path of responsibility. The country's experience affirms that when a state extends a hand, society grows stronger – and security becomes unshakeable.

Uzbekistan's motto in this sphere is clear: "Children cannot be terrorists" – and every Uzbek citizen will always remain under the protection of their homeland.

Timur Akhmedov,

Head of Department,

Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

The text of the article is in Uzbek!

On May 15, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev paid a working visit to the city of Turkestan, where he took part in the informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States. The visit featured an extensive political, economic, and humanitarian agenda, as well as a series of high-level bilateral meetings. In an interview with the correspondent of Dunyo IA, First Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan Akramjon Nematov shared his views on the significance of the summit, emerging trends in the development of the OTS, and Uzbekistan’s initiatives.

— President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s participation in the informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Turkestan was highly intensive both in terms of substance and the number of bilateral engagements. In your opinion, what made this visit particularly noteworthy and distinctive?

— First and foremost, I would note that this visit reflected a qualitatively new stage both in the development of the Organization of Turkic States itself and in the role of Central Asia within the emerging architecture of Eurasian cooperation.

Notably, the summit agenda extended far beyond cultural and humanitarian cooperation to encompass issues directly linked to future economic and technological development — digitalization, artificial intelligence, transport connectivity, and innovation. This reflects the OTS’s gradual transformation into a more pragmatic platform oriented toward practical cooperation.

Such an approach is particularly close to Uzbekistan, as our country has consistently advocated open, mutually beneficial, and technology-driven cooperation across Eurasia. Amid ongoing global transformation, connectivity, resilient supply chains, digital infrastructure, and joint industrial development are becoming key determinants of long-term regional competitiveness.

Another distinctive feature of the summit is the increasingly prominent role of Central Asia as an independent center of regional dynamism. It is symbolic that the meeting took place in Turkestan, one of the most important spiritual and historical centers of the Turkic world. This underscores the growing importance of our region not only as a space of shared historical and cultural heritage, but also as a major hub of economic, transport, and humanitarian connectivity.

Particular attention should be paid to the bilateral meetings held by the President of Uzbekistan with President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov, and President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. These meetings demonstrated the high level of trust and intensity of regional dialogue.

In particular, talks with the Kyrgyz side focused on advancing major infrastructure projects, above all the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Today, such projects carry not merely transport significance but strategic importance, as they are shaping a new geoeconomic configuration of Eurasia and strengthening Central Asia’s role as a key transit, manufacturing, and logistics hub.

The meeting with the Turkish leader also confirmed that Uzbek-Turkish relations have reached the level of a stable comprehensive strategic partnership. This is no longer solely about expanding trade or investment, but about building long-term cooperation in industry, technology, logistics, education, and other sectors.

The humanitarian dimension of the visit was equally significant. The visit to the mosque built by the Uzbek side in Turkestan became a vivid symbol of the strengthening fraternal ties between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and reflected the shared historical, spiritual, and cultural affinity of the two peoples. Importantly, the humanitarian dimension is increasingly serving as a natural complement to economic and political cooperation in the region.

In a broader context, the visit confirms that Uzbekistan continues to pursue an open and balanced foreign policy aimed at fostering constructive engagement with all partners. It is fundamentally important that the countries of Central Asia view Turkic cooperation not as a closed geopolitical project, but as part of a broader architecture of inclusive and mutually beneficial cooperation across Eurasia.

This is precisely why Central Asia is increasingly asserting itself as an independent actor in international relations with its own agenda based on the principles of good-neighborliness, connectivity, pragmatism, and shared responsibility for the region’s sustainable development.

— What agenda did Uzbekistan bring to the informal OTS summit in Turkestan, and what, in your view, was particularly noteworthy about the initiatives put forward by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev?

— Uzbekistan presented at the summit of the Organization of Turkic States a highly comprehensive yet pragmatic agenda aimed not only at strengthening the cultural and civilizational commonality of the Turkic world, but above all at shaping a new architecture of technological, transport, investment, and humanitarian cooperation.

What distinguished President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s address was its emphasis on transforming the OTS from a predominantly political and cultural platform into a mechanism for practical integration in the most promising and strategically sensitive areas of the 21st century — artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, logistics, climate security, and cyber resilience.

Notably, Uzbekistan effectively proposed a conceptual vision for a “Digital Turkic Space.” The discussion has moved beyond cultural affinity or expanding trade toward the creation of a common technological ecosystem. It was in this context that the initiative to establish a strategic cooperation network in the field of artificial intelligence was advanced, along with the concept of a “Digital Turkic Corridor” designed to connect regional data centers and digital platforms through high-speed communication channels.

It is especially important that the President of Uzbekistan linked the digital agenda with the historical and intellectual heritage of Turkic civilization. References to Muhammad al-Khorazmiy, Ahmad al-Farganiy, Abu Rayhan al-Beruniy, and Mirzo Ulugbek gave the speech greater depth and intellectual dimension. In doing so, it was emphasized that modern technological modernization is viewed not as an external borrowing, but as a natural continuation of the region’s own scientific legacy.

Another important feature was Uzbekistan’s promotion of the institutionalization of cooperation. Virtually all of the President’s initiatives were practical in nature and aimed at establishing concrete mechanisms of interaction — a joint venture fund with Kazakhstan, a Technology Forum in Tashkent, a big data platform for consolidating shared cultural heritage, a Turkic Cybersecurity Alliance, and a climate risk monitoring system based on satellite data.

It is also indicative that Uzbekistan consistently promotes the nexus between digitalization, transport connectivity, and security. Particular emphasis in the speech was placed on integrating the Middle Corridor with the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, the digitalization of customs procedures, and the launch of a unified logistics space. In essence, this involves the formation of a new Eurasian transport and technological framework in which Central Asia becomes not a periphery, but one of the key hubs.

The environmental dimension of the initiatives also deserves special attention. Uzbekistan proposed viewing the climate agenda as an issue of collective security for the Turkic space. The initiative to declare 2027 the Year of Environmental Protection within the OTS framework, along with proposals for joint monitoring of droughts, soil degradation, and glacier melt, reflects the intention to provide the Organization with a more modern and globally relevant agenda.

Equally important is that amid growing international turbulence, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev placed special emphasis on trust, coordination, and collective resilience. The proposal to establish a Turkic Cybersecurity Alliance reflects the understanding that emerging threats are increasingly taking shape not only in the traditional military-political sphere, but also in the digital domain.

Overall, Uzbekistan’s address demonstrated that Tashkent views the OTS as a long-term platform for strategic cooperation capable of becoming one of the independent centers of technological, economic, and humanitarian development across Eurasia. At the same time, the distinguishing feature of Uzbekistan’s approach lies in its combination of pragmatism, institutional thinking, and the concept of open regional connectivity.

— How would you assess the overall outcomes of the OTS summit, and what is its practical significance today?

— Viewed in a broader strategic context, the recently concluded summit of the Organization of Turkic States demonstrated that the OTS is gradually moving beyond a predominantly symbolic and humanitarian model of interaction toward becoming a fully-fledged platform for practical cooperation in a rapidly changing world.

And this is perhaps the principal outcome of the meeting in Turkestan.

Today, the international system is undergoing a period of profound transformation. Geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying, competition for transport routes, technologies, resources, and markets is growing, and established logistics chains are being disrupted. The importance of infrastructure resilience, energy security, digital sovereignty, and food stability is steadily increasing. Against this backdrop, states are increasingly seeking regional formats of cooperation capable of ensuring resilience to external shocks.

It is precisely in this context that the outcomes of the OTS summit should be viewed.

The practical significance of the meeting lies primarily in the fact that the countries of the Turkic world have begun discussing not abstract integration ideas, but concrete mechanisms for joint development — transport corridors, digital infrastructure, technological cooperation, climate resilience, logistics, and cybersecurity.

It is highly indicative that virtually all speeches delivered by the leaders focused, in one way or another, on connectivity and resilience. President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the need to strengthen the transport and transit potential of the Turkic space and further develop the Middle Corridor. President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stressed the importance of logistics integration and expanding economic cooperation among OTS member states. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev paid particular attention to transport connectivity and the region’s role in shaping new Eurasian routes. All of this reflects a shared understanding that transport, logistics, and infrastructure connectivity are becoming the foundation of the new regional economy.

In this regard, Central Asia is gradually transforming into one of the key hubs of Eurasia. The region is no longer perceived solely as a transit space. Today, the focus is on the emergence of a new manufacturing, logistics, and investment hub linking East and West, North and South.

That is why such importance is attached to the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, the integration of the Middle Corridor, the digitalization of customs procedures, and the development of data centers and logistics platforms. In effect, a new infrastructural geography of Eurasia is taking shape.

It is particularly important that the summit clearly highlighted the interconnection between transport connectivity, digitalization, and security. Today, the resilience of states is determined not only by military capabilities, but also by their ability to ensure the uninterrupted functioning of transport corridors, energy networks, digital infrastructure, and supply chains.

In this sense, Uzbekistan’s initiatives appear highly timely and strategically sound. The proposals to establish a “Digital Turkic Corridor,” a Turkic Cybersecurity Alliance, a climate risk monitoring system, and joint artificial intelligence platforms reflect an understanding that competition in the 21st century will increasingly unfold in the technological and infrastructural domains.

The climate agenda also deserves special attention. Just a few years ago, such issues were perceived as secondary, whereas today they are directly linked to economic resilience and security. Water scarcity, soil degradation, and extreme weather events have a direct impact on energy, agriculture, transport, and migration processes. Therefore, Uzbekistan’s proposal to establish climate risk monitoring mechanisms and declare 2027 the Year of Environmental Protection appears especially timely and relevant.

It is also noteworthy that the summit demonstrated a high level of political trust among the Central Asian states. Just a few years ago, it would have been difficult to imagine such an intensive level of regional interaction. Today, however, Central Asia is acting no longer as an object of major powers’ foreign policies, but as an independent actor in international relations capable of shaping its own agenda and advancing major regional initiatives.

Overall, it can be said that the practical value of the summit lies in strengthening the region’s long-term resilience. The focus is on creating mechanisms that will enable the countries of the Turkic space to jointly adapt to global transformations — technological, economic, climatic, and geopolitical.

For this reason, the current summit should be viewed not merely as a diplomatic event, but as an important stage in shaping a new model of regional cooperation across Eurasia based on pragmatism, connectivity, technological development, and collective resilience.

Economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and Turkiye is carried out within the framework of signed bilateral agreements and established intergovernmental mechanisms, and is supported by regular high-level contacts. In addition, Uzbekistan and Turkiye cooperate within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States.

In 2023, the President of the Republic of Turkiye paid an official visit to Uzbekistan, during which the Uzbekistan–Turkiye Business Forum was held. As a result of the visit, a substantial package of intergovernmental and commercial agreements was signed, covering key sectors of the economy with a total value of around $10 bn.

In June 2024, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan paid an official visit to Turkiye. During the visit, a meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council was held, resulting in the signing of an important package of agreements, protocols, and roadmaps aimed at further expanding trade, economic, and investment cooperation.

Mutual trade between Uzbekistan and Turkiye operates under a most-favoured-nation regime, and a Preferential Trade Agreement has also been signed.

Turkiye is among Uzbekistan’s leading trade and economic partners, ranking 4th in terms of total trade turnover and imports, and 5th in terms of Uzbekistan’s exports.

In 2025, Turkiye’s share in Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover amounted to 3.7%, including 3.4% of exports and 4.0% of imports.

Dynamics of Bilateral Trade

Over the period 2017–2025, bilateral trade between the two countries increased by 1.9 times and reached $3.0 bn by the end of 2025. Exports to Turkiye grew by 1.3 times to $1.1 bn, while imports from Turkiye increased by 2.8 times to $1.9 bn.

At the same time, annual growth rates of imports from Turkiye consistently exceeded export growth rates, resulting in a widening trade deficit to –$751.6 mn.

Uzbekistan’s exports to Turkiye in 2025 comprised the following categories: industrial goods (copper products, yarn, etc.) amounting to $511.4 mn (45%); miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly precious metal products) at $152.3 mn (13.4%); chemical products (polymers, fertilizers, etc.) at $124.3 mn (11%); machinery and transport equipment at $80.1 mn (7%); food products (dried fruits and nuts) at $63.0 mn (5.5%); petroleum products (gasoline, gas oil) at $36.6 mn (3.2%); non-food raw materials at $18.0 mn (1.6%); as well as services, primarily transport services, at $149.9 mn (13.2%).

Imports from Turkiye in 2025 were dominated by the following categories: machinery and transport equipment at $674.6 mn (35.7%); chemical products at $408.9 mn (21.7%); industrial goods at $390.2 mn (20.7%); miscellaneous manufactured articles at $136.2 mn (7.2%); food products at $94.6 mn (5.0%); petroleum products (lubricating oils) at $30.2 mn (1.6%); non-food raw materials at $30.1 mn (1.6%); and services at $117.4 mn (6.2%).

Investment Cooperation

The two countries have signed an Agreement on the Promotion and Reciprocal Protection of Investments. As of 1 January 2026, 2,137 enterprises with Turkish capital operate in Uzbekistan, accounting for 11.8% of all active enterprises with foreign investment. Of these, 496 are joint ventures and 1,641 are wholly owned by Turkish investors.

Total direct investments and loans from Turkiye to Uzbekistan’s economy over 2017–2025 amounted to $9.0 bn, including $2.6 bn attracted in 2025 alone.

Turkish capital continues to expand its presence in Uzbekistan, primarily in priority sectors such as energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction.

In particular, investments in the power sector are linked to the construction by the Turkish company Cengiz Enerji of a 240 MW thermal power plant in Tashkent Region and a similar 220 MW plant in Syrdarya Region.

Prospective Areas of Economic Cooperation

An analysis of Turkiye’s import structure indicates opportunities to increase Uzbekistan’s exports to Turkiye, particularly in product categories that Uzbekistan already supplies to global markets. These include polymers (Turkiye’s imports amounting to $2.8 bn), copper wire ($1.4 bn), fertilizers ($1.1 bn), legumes ($1.0 bn), zinc ($857 mn), copper tubes ($360 mn), textile products, particularly T-shirts and undershirts ($373 mn), knitted fabrics ($158 mn) and other manufactured goods.

Promising areas for cooperative engagement between Uzbekistan and Turkiye include manufacturing industries – especially textiles, electrical engineering, and machinery – chemical industry, agriculture, healthcare, education, as well as projects aimed at preserving and promoting cultural heritage. There are also prospects for joint infrastructure projects, including the construction of water treatment facilities.

In agriculture, particular attention is paid to the selection and cultivation of domestic pistachio varieties and the development of pistachio farming. Agreements have been reached on implementing joint research projects focused on cultivation techniques and adaptation.

A significant emphasis is placed on expanding cooperation in education, including the involvement of Turkish lecturers and specialized professionals in educational initiatives in Uzbekistan, experience exchange, and human capital development.

At the same time, areas of cooperation in healthcare are being discussed, focusing on the development of primary healthcare, the introduction of medical insurance systems, sector digitalization, improvement of service quality, and modernization of the pharmaceutical industry.

Tourism has been identified as a separate and promising area of cooperation. Currently, 12 hotels in Uzbekistan operate with the participation of Turkish partners, along with more than 100 joint restaurants, reflecting sustained interest by Turkish businesses in the country’s tourism sector.

In 2025–2026, with the support of Turkish investors, 11 hotel projects with a total value of $167.9 mn are planned in Bukhara, Samarkand, Jizzakh, Fergana, and Tashkent regions.

Transport connectivity is also expanding significantly. The number of weekly flights between Uzbekistan and Turkiye has increased from 62 in 2023 to 106 at present, creating additional conditions for the growth of mutual tourist flows and the expansion of travel routes.

A key initiative in tourism is the “Million + Million” programme, aimed at attracting at least one million tourists to each country. The programme envisages a further increase in flight frequency and the expansion of tourist routes between Uzbekistan and Turkiye.

Conclusion

In recent years, there has been steady growth in bilateral trade, investment volumes, the number of enterprises with Turkish capital, and the breadth of economic cooperation.

At the same time, Uzbekistan’s exports to Turkiye are still dominated by raw materials and intermediate goods used in Turkiye’s industrial sectors. Against this background, the key task for the coming years is to move from a “raw materials–finished goods” trade model toward the formation of joint production chains with higher value added.

In this context, Turkiye can play a role for Uzbekistan not only as one of its principal trading partners, but also as a contributor to Uzbekistan’s industrial development and to the expansion of its participation in global value chains.

Edvard Romanov
Center for Economic Research and Reforms

Amid ongoing global geoeconomic transformations, Central Asia is increasingly emerging as one of the key hubs of Eurasian connectivity.

Against this backdrop, Uzbekistan has consistently strengthened its position as a proactive advocate of regional dialogue, transport integration, and economic cooperation between Central and South Asia.

One of the most prominent manifestations of this strategy is the Termez Dialogue, a new international platform aimed at fostering sustainable links between the two macro-regions.

Accordingly, the central message of the inaugural meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia, held in May 2025, was reflected in the forum’s theme: “Building a Common Space of Peace, Friendship, and Prosperity.”

The event was jointly organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Uzbekistan. The forum brought together approximately 200 participants from Central and South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region.

The choice of Termez as the venue was highly symbolic. As Uzbekistan’s southern gateway and a major transport and logistics hub on the Afghan border, the city has historically served as a bridge between regions and is now evolving into a platform for shaping a new model of interregional cooperation.

TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY AS THE FOUNDATION OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION

The Termez Dialogue reflects Uzbekistan’s strategic vision of creating an open and interconnected Eurasian space. In recent years, Tashkent has consistently promoted the idea of linking Central and South Asia through the development of transport corridors, energy cooperation, and humanitarian exchanges.

One of the most significant initiatives in this regard is the construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway “Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kharlachi.” The project is expected to substantially reduce cargo transit times between Central Asia and Pakistan’s seaports, providing regional countries with direct access to the Indian Ocean. Uzbekistan remains actively engaged in negotiations with Afghanistan and Pakistan to advance this initiative, viewing it as a cornerstone of a future Eurasian transport corridor.

Another practical example of connectivity is the modernization of Termez’s transport and logistics infrastructure. The international transport hub in Surkhandarya Region already plays a crucial role in facilitating humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan and supporting southbound transit transportation. Through the development of multimodal transport routes, Uzbekistan is strengthening its position as a key transit state in the region.

Particular attention is also being devoted to energy connectivity. Uzbekistan continues to export electricity to Afghanistan while simultaneously promoting projects aimed at expanding regional power networks. These measures contribute not only to economic integration but also to the creation of a foundation for long-term stability in neighboring countries.

GEOPOLITICAL TRANSFORMATION AND THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

In recent years, regional connectivity has acquired not only economic but also strategic significance for Central Asia.

The conflict in the Persian Gulf, accompanied by strikes on military and energy infrastructure, has demonstrated the vulnerability of traditional transport and logistics routes passing through the Middle East. Under these circumstances, Central Asia’s role as an alternative corridor for transit and a zone of political stability has become increasingly important.

For Uzbekistan, these new geopolitical realities present both challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, instability surrounding Iran increases risks to international trade, energy supplies, and regional security. On the other hand, demand is growing for overland corridors linking East Asia, South Asia, and Europe while bypassing areas affected by military tensions.

As a result, the connectivity projects promoted by Tashkent are increasingly viewed not merely as regional initiatives but as integral elements of a new Eurasian logistics architecture.

The Trans-Afghan Corridor has gained particular significance in this context. Against the backdrop of potential disruptions to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz and growing risks along Middle Eastern routes, the **Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway** could become one of the shortest and safest overland connections between Central Asia and the ports of the Indian Ocean. This has increased interest in the project not only among regional states but also among major external actors seeking to diversify trade routes.

Furthermore, tensions surrounding Iran have brought issues of food and energy security into sharper focus. In response, Uzbekistan has intensified regional coordination efforts concerning electricity supplies, logistics, and humanitarian engagement with Afghanistan.

In this context, Termez is evolving from a border city into a critical hub of regional crisis-response infrastructure.

THE TERMEZ DIALOGUE AS A MECHANISM FOR INSTITUTIONALIZING COOPERATION

The significance of the Termez Dialogue extends far beyond transport and economic issues.

The platform is gradually developing into an institutional mechanism for cooperation between Central and South Asia. Experts increasingly describe the forum as a step toward the formation of a new architecture of interregional interaction.

Against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East, Uzbekistan continues to promote a diplomatic model of regional development based on the principles of neutrality, pragmatism, and multilateral cooperation.

At a time of growing confrontation in global politics, the Termez Dialogue serves as a platform where discussions encompass not only trade and transport but also mechanisms for maintaining the resilience of the broader Eurasian space.

This explains the growing international support for Uzbekistan’s initiative. The themes addressed within the Termez Dialogue are increasingly discussed at international forums, reflecting broader recognition of Tashkent’s role as a mediator and integrator across Eurasia.

Uzbekistan is advancing an alternative model of regional development based on dialogue, economic cooperation, and infrastructure connectivity. Consequently, the Termez Dialogue is becoming not merely a diplomatic initiative but an important element of an emerging framework for interregional cooperation.

CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES WITHIN THE CONNECTIVITY AGENDA

At the same time, Uzbekistan emphasizes a comprehensive approach to addressing regional challenges. During the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue, particular attention was devoted to climate resilience, water security, and joint responses to environmental challenges.

Organizers stressed that climate-related risks have become common challenges for both Central and South Asia and therefore require coordinated solutions.

In particular, Uzbekistan advocates expanding regional cooperation on the rational management of transboundary water resources within the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins, which directly affect the food and energy security of regional states.

Special attention is also being paid to environmental degradation in the Aral Sea region. Uzbekistan continues to promote international initiatives aimed at ecosystem restoration, including the establishment of the International Innovation Center for the Aral Sea Region and the implementation of large-scale afforestation programs on the dried seabed of the Aral Sea.

Over recent years, millions of hectares have been planted with saxaul trees, making this one of Central Asia’s largest climate adaptation projects.

In addition, Tashkent actively promotes green energy initiatives as a component of regional sustainability. Uzbekistan is implementing major solar and wind power projects with the participation of investors from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and China.

The development of renewable energy is viewed not only as a domestic priority but also as a foundation for future cross-border energy cooperation between Central and South Asia.

Another example of this comprehensive approach is the discussion of regional mechanisms for responding to climate emergencies, including droughts, dust storms, and water shortages.

Uzbekistan has proposed intensifying the exchange of hydrometeorological data and scientific research among regional countries, emphasizing that environmental security is becoming an integral component of the broader connectivity architecture.

CONCLUSION

Today, it is increasingly evident that Uzbekistan is steadily consolidating its role as one of the principal drivers of regional connectivity.

Through transport projects, diplomatic platforms, and economic initiatives, Tashkent is contributing to the transformation of Central Asia into an active center of Eurasian interaction.

Within this process, the Termez Dialogue has emerged as a symbol of a new regional strategy – one based on openness, pragmatism, and mutually beneficial development.

Author: Shukhrat Tukhtabaev,

Chief Research Fellow

Center for Foreign Policy Studies

(Uzbekistan)

The 26th International Textile and Garment Industry Exhibition TextileExpo Uzbekistan 2026 will be held from May 13 to 15, 2026 at the Uzexpocentre National Exhibition Complex in Tashkent

TextileExpo Uzbekistan is the largest B2B platform for the textile and garment industry in Central Asia, bringing together manufacturers, suppliers, and professional buyers. Here, the buyers find reliable partners, current trends, and favourable terms of cooperation, while industry representatives find comprehensive solutions for production development and optimization. Visitors can compare offers, evaluate product quality, and negotiate directly with manufacturers.

Over 150 verified suppliers from 7 countries will participate, with strong representation from companies from China.

The exhibition will traditionally cover all production cycle phases from raw materials to finished products and accessories. Visitors will find yarn, fabrics, knitwear, fittings and accessories, finished garments, technical and home textiles, hosiery, as well as chemicals and dyes for the textile industry.

According to the organizers, the traditional Buyers’ Program is planned as a unique component of the TextileExpo Uzbekistan. It is a platform focused on achieving concrete business outcomes, including targeted B2B meetings, the establishment of long-term partnerships, and the conclusion of commercial contracts. For domestic companies, the program serves as an effective channel for entering international markets and scaling export deliveries. For buyers, exclusive participation conditions are provided, allowing them to make the most efficient use of their time at the exhibition and gain priority access to key suppliers.

Dunyo IA

Cooperation between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan in the field of ecology and environmental protection is reaching a new level, encompassing both bilateral initiatives and active engagement on international platforms. Humanity finally discovered that poisoning the planet might have consequences. Remarkable timing.

The foundation of this partnership remains the Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection, signed on September 11, 2008, in Baku. Today, the two sides continue to work on a new intergovernmental agreement intended to make cooperation more systematic and strategic. At the same time, regular exchanges of experience and information are taking place through international conferences, meetings, and platforms, including the structures of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Contacts within climate forums have gained particular importance. During COP28, representatives of the two countries discussed the transition toward a sustainable and resource-efficient economy within the Economic Cooperation Organization region. The dialogue later continued on the sidelines of the United Nations Environment Assembly in Nairobi, where the parties focused on preparations for COP29, held in Baku.

COP29 itself became an important milestone in deepening regional cooperation. During the conference, the first meeting of environmental ministers of the Organization of Turkic States was held, resulting in the signing of a corresponding declaration. In addition, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan joined the regional “Glaciers to Farms” program, implemented with the support of the Asian Development Bank and the Green Climate Fund. The program aims to mobilize $3.5 billion to improve the resilience of agriculture and infrastructure in the face of glacier melting.

Educational cooperation also remains an important area of partnership. Young environmental activists from Azerbaijan participated in international environmental camps in Samarkand organized with the involvement of the International Public Foundation “Zamin.”

An active dialogue is also being conducted at the level of профильных ведомств. In 2024, an Azerbaijani delegation visited the National Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Ecology and Climate Change during the first Uzbek-Azerbaijani Media Forum, where the parties exchanged experience in environmental communication and countering disinformation. Because apparently even climate change now has to survive internet arguments.

Future prospects for cooperation include several promising areas. These include exchanging experience in air quality monitoring and the development of green urbanization, expanding scientific research through the Central Asian University for Environmental and Climate Change Studies (Green University), and cooperation in the management of protected natural areas.

The parties are also considering the establishment of a joint working group and the completion of the new intergovernmental agreement. Additionally, they propose intensifying cooperation within international environmental conventions, including Azerbaijan’s accession to the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals.

Special attention is also being given to upcoming international events. Azerbaijan will participate in the 8th Assembly of the Global Environment Facility and will present its National Pavilion at the Eco Expo Central Asia 2026 exhibition, which will take place in Samarkand.

Thus, Uzbek-Azerbaijani cooperation in the environmental sphere demonstrates steady momentum and covers a broad range of areas, from climate policy and scientific research to youth initiatives and international cooperation.

On 23 September this year, a regular meeting of the Central Election Commission was held to discuss the accreditation of observers from abroad and from international organizations, as well as the organization of the activities of the Instant Information Center.

The interest of foreign countries and international organizations in the elections to the representative bodies of state power, which will be held this year in accordance with the updated electoral legislation, is extremely high.

In particular, it is expected that more than 1,000 international and foreign observers will participate in observing the elections, particularly about 400 from 50 countries, about 500 from 21 international organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Organization of Turkic States and another 60 from the election commissions of 26 foreign countries.

It should be noted that the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe intends to participate in the observation of the elections in Uzbekistan with a comprehensive mission consisting of a core group, long-term and short-term observers, about 350 observers in total.

The great interest of foreign states and international organizations in the elections in Uzbekistan testifies to the international community's recognition of the democratic reforms being carried out in our country.

Accordingly, it was decided at the Central Election Commission meeting to accredit observers from international organizations who will participate in the elections to the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis and the local Councils (Kengashes), and some observers from international organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the CIS Inter-parliamentary Assembly and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe were accredited.

As of today, foreign and international organizations wishing to accredit observers can log into the “E-Saylov” information system in their country and enter data electronically in a specific format and submit it for review.

Another notable aspect of this process is that new samples of mandates of accredited foreign observers are automatically generated electronically through this system.

Also at the meeting of the Central Election Commission, the relevant decision was taken on the establishment of the Instant Information Center – “Call Center” - and the approval of its statutes. The “Call Center” will receive citizens' complaints centrally and provide them with legal explanations and consultations in real time.

The main objectives of the “Call Center” are to establish a dialog with citizens in real time during the election campaign, to provide the population with complete and reliable information on the activities of the commissions, the stages of the electoral process, to create the necessary conditions for the unconditional realization of citizens' rights to vote and appeal, and to strengthen their awareness of electoral legislation and processes.

Central Election Commission Press Service

Central and South Asia are increasingly facing the same reality: climate risks are no longer a distant forecast. Droughts, water scarcity, heatwaves, land degradation, dust storms, floods, and pressure on water, food and energy security are already affecting economies, public health, infrastructure, and the resilience of entire regions.

This is why the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia is of particular significance. The second meeting is organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in partnership with the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. This format reflects Uzbekistan’s consistent foreign policy direction aimed at strengthening trust, open dialogue, and sustainable connectivity between the regions.

While the first meeting introduced the Termez Dialogue as a platform for bringing the two regions closer together, the new agenda takes the next step: moving from a discussion of connectivity to practical mechanisms for joint climate adaptation and stronger environmental resilience. Its task is to move from conceptual discussions to concrete priorities and practical mechanisms, with joint adaptation to climate change identified among the key areas of cooperation.

Climate as a New Test of Connectivity

Climate change shows how closely water, food, energy, transport, health, and ecosystems are linked. When water availability declines, the impact is not limited to agriculture. It also affects hydropower, food prices, migration, employment, soil conditions, and even regional stability. As extreme heat becomes more frequent, cities, transport systems, healthcare systems, and labour productivity all come under pressure.

The Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), prepared as part of the Sixth Assessment Cycle, emphasizes that adaptation is already taking place in all regions of the world, but the gap between what is needed and what is being done remains and will continue to grow at the current pace of action. The IPCC also underlines that the most effective responses are not isolated measures, but integrated solutions that connect water management, agriculture, infrastructure, social protection, ecosystems, and population needs.

This is particularly important for Central and South Asia. Both regions depend on mountain watersheds, irrigated agriculture, the resilience of rural areas, as well as stable and secure energy supply and the cross-border movement of goods and people. Climate adaptation, therefore, cannot remain solely a matter of national policy. It must become part of interregional cooperation.

Uzbekistan: The Data Confirm the Urgency of Action

Uzbekistan’s Fourth National Communication under the UNFCCC identifies the country as among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in Central Asia and Eurasia. This vulnerability is linked to accelerated temperature rise, growing water scarcity, glacier retreat, and the increasing frequency of extreme hydrometeorological events.

Water remains an especially sensitive factor. Uzbekistan’s water resources belong to the Aral Sea basin, while the main surface runoff of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers is formed outside the country. This means that Uzbekistan’s climate resilience is directly linked to the quality of regional and interregional cooperation. Water, data, forecasts, infrastructure, and trust become part of one security system.

Cities as a New Frontline of Climate Adaptation

The climate agenda is also becoming increasingly connected with the future of cities. Speaking at the Leaders’ Summit of the 13th session of the World Urban Forum in Baku, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted that, over the next 15 years, the country’s population is expected to grow from 38 to 50 million people, while the urbanization rate is projected to rise from 51% to 65%.

For Uzbekistan, this is not only a demographic trend but also a climate challenge. Urban growth increases pressure on water, energy, transport, housing, air quality, and green spaces. Therefore, plans for sustainable urbanization — including the development of “green”, “smart”, “safe”, and “15-minute” cities, the expansion of urban greenery, and the introduction of green city principles — are directly linked to climate adaptation.

In this context, the Termez Dialogue can become a platform for exchanging experience not only on water and agriculture, but also on climate-resilient urban development: from reducing the urban heat island effect and saving water to clean transport, digital air quality monitoring, and designing new districts with climate risks in mind.

A New Emphasis: Adaptation as a Practical Development Agenda

The Termez Dialogue can offer an important new approach: to view adaptation not as a response to crises, but as an investment in sustainable development. This changes the very language of climate policy.

Adaptation is not only about building protective infrastructure or responding to emergencies. It is about more accurate forecasting of droughts and floods and data exchange between countries. It is about water-saving agriculture, the modernization of canals, pumping stations, and urban infrastructure. It is about restoring degraded lands and ecosystems. It is about preparing farmers, engineers, hydrologists, energy specialists, and local authorities to operate under new climate conditions.

This is why the Concept of the second meeting of the Termez Dialogue emphasizes the consolidation of efforts by states and partners to develop coordinated and mutually reinforcing approaches to climate adaptation and to reducing the socio-economic consequences of climate and environmental risks.

Why Central and South Asia Must Adapt Together

Climate risks do not recognize borders. Drought in one part of the region can affect food markets in another. Glacier retreat changes river regimes far beyond mountain areas. Dust storms, heatwaves, and extreme rainfall can affect several countries at once. Joint adaptation is therefore a practical necessity.

The IPCC stresses that around 3.3 to 3.6 billion people worldwide live in conditions of high vulnerability to climate change. It also emphasizes that the vulnerability of people and ecosystems is interconnected: the degradation of ecosystems increases risks for people, while social vulnerability reduces societies’ ability to adapt.

For Central and South Asia, this means that resilience must be built across several dimensions at once: water, food, energy, environment, and society. Food and environmental security cannot be strengthened without water. Infrastructure cannot be modernized without climate forecasts. Risks cannot be reduced without trust and information exchange.

Termez as a Place for Climate Partnership

The choice of Termez has both historical and practical significance. Termez is Uzbekistan’s southern gateway and a natural bridge between Central and South Asia. In today’s conditions, this role acquires new meaning: the city is becoming a symbol not only of transport and trade connectivity, but also of climate partnership.

Afghanistan has a particularly important role. The idea of the Termez Dialogue implies the need for the gradual integration of Afghanistan into regional economic, transport, humanitarian, and climate processes with the support of the international community. In the climate agenda, this is especially meaningful: without Afghanistan’s participation, it is impossible to build genuinely sustainable connectivity between Central and South Asia.

What the Termez Dialogue Can Deliver

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform for launching several practical areas of cooperation.

First, the exchange of climate and hydrological data, including forecasts of droughts, floods, glacier changes, and dust storms.

Second, the joint promotion of early warning systems, so that countries can prepare in advance for extreme weather events.

Third, the development of climate-resilient agriculture: water-saving technologies, drought-resistant crops, digital services for farmers, and the restoration of pastures and soils.

Fourth, ecosystem-based adaptation — the restoration of forests, wetlands, mountain and desert ecosystems that themselves serve as natural protection against climate risks.

Fifth, climate-resilient infrastructure — from transport corridors and logistics centres to energy facilities and rapidly growing cities.

From a Common Challenge to Shared Resilience

The main value of the Termez Dialogue is that it allows the climate agenda to be discussed not in the language of alarm, but in the language of joint solutions. Central and South Asia can not only exchange risk assessments, but also create common adaptation mechanisms: from scientific networks and pilot projects to investment programmes and regional standards for resilient infrastructure.

The new climate agenda of the Termez Dialogue is part of the larger idea of connectivity. Genuine connectivity is not only about roads, trade, and energy corridors. It is also about the capacity of countries to jointly protect ecosystems, human health, and the future of coming generations. The Termez Dialogue can become the space where Central and South Asia move from recognizing their shared vulnerability to building shared resilience.

D.R. Ziganshina, SIC ICWC | 20 May 2026