The analysis covers the key thematic and semantic emphases of the President’s speech, the structure of core concepts and their interrelations, priority directions of state policy, as well as the strategic benchmarks for the country’s socio-economic development in 2026.

On 26 December 2025, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev delivered his Address to the Oliy Majlis and the people of Uzbekistan. Experts of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) conducted a linguistic content analysis of the President’s speech.

The analysis was carried out using modern linguistic methods and is aimed at identifying semantic priorities, key concepts and their connections. A word cloud and diagrams were also prepared to visually demonstrate the priority directions of state policy.

Analysis (from the original language)

In total, the President used 9,135 words in his Address. The creation of a word cloud made it possible to visualize the most significant themes and gain a deeper understanding of the priorities and directions of the country’s socio-economic development.

Figure 1. Most frequently used words in the President’s Address (26.12.2025)

The linguistic analysis showed that the most frequently used key words included “mahalla” – 49 times, “aholi” (population) – 35 times, “iqtisodiyot” (economy) – 28 times, “bozor” (market) – 26 times, “loyiha” (project) – 25 times, and “technology” – 22 times (Fig. 1).

Words such as “ta’lim” (education), “natija” (result) and “daromad” (income) were each used 20 times; “tadbirkor” (entrepreneur) and “sanoat” (industry) – 19 times each; “suv” (water) – 18 times; “elektr” (electricity) and “hudud” (territory) – 17 times each; “yoshlar” (youth), “infratuzilma” (infrastructure) and “qurilish” (construction) – 16 times each.

The analysis of two-word expressions showed that the phrase “Markaziy Osiyo” (Central Asia) was used eight times; “aholi daromadi” (household income), “qishloq xo‘jaligi” (agriculture) and “yangi bosqich” (new stage) – seven times; “yangi texnologiyalar” (new technologies) and “Toshkent shahri” (city of Tashkent) – six times each. Expressions such as “Davlat xizmatlari” (public services), “xorijiy investitsiya” (foreign investment) and “yangi tizim” (new system) were used five times, while “dual ta’lim” (dual education), “ish o‘rni” (jobs), “viloyat markazlari” (regional centers) and “tuman byudjeti” (district budgets) were used four times each.
Among three-word combinations, the most frequent expressions included “the next five years” – nine times; “based on dual education” – four times; and “water-saving technologies” and “water, electricity” – three times each.

Thus, the analysis shows that at the core of state policy are the mahalla, public welfare, and the transition to a new stage of development based on economic and technological transformation, with clearly defined strategic objectives for the next five years.

Thematic structure of the speech

The diagram below shows the distribution of the speech’s vocabulary by key directions, where the content is grouped into nine main thematic blocks.
The diagram clearly demonstrates that technological development and human interests, implemented at the level of the mahalla, are at the center of state policy. The ultimate goal of all reforms is to ensure public welfare through sustainable economic growth (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Distribution of words by thematic areas in the structure of the speech

Interconnection of development directions

The analysis highlights key words that demonstrate the interconnection between various directions of Uzbekistan’s state policy in the coming years.
The transition of the economy to a technological and innovation-based growth model is a central element of state policy and implies a shift away from a raw-materials model toward high-tech industry. This direction is closely linked with such concepts as “investment,” “technology,” “market,” and “product.”

The block on economic growth and welfare reflects the key outcomes of reforms, including the increase of the economy to $145 bn and a twofold reduction in poverty over the past three years. It is directly associated with the concepts of “population,” “economy,” “mahalla,” and “services.”

The social foundation of reforms is built through the development of the mahalla and social solidarity. This direction is associated with “mahalla,” “youth,” “society,” and “values.”

Structuring vocabulary by thematic areas shows that the core of the President’s speech is technological modernization of the economy and a human-centered governance model based on the “mahallabay” system.

It emphasizes the interconnection between economic growth, improvement of public welfare and the development of local infrastructure, as well as priorities such as strengthening human capital, expanding employment and increasing the efficiency of public administration.

Figure 3. Interconnection of development directions

Among the highlighted semantic blocks are also tasks related to stimulating domestic demand, developing the housing and tourism sectors, modernizing the transport system, increasing productivity in agriculture and introducing water-saving technologies.

Special emphasis is placed on the “green” agenda, including the development of renewable energy, expansion of the “Yashil Makon” (“Green Space”) initiative, and strengthening resilience to climate risks.

In the foreign policy dimension, the analysis highlights Uzbekistan’s openness, strengthening of good-neighborly relations, and integration into the global economic system.

The linguistic analysis confirms that the idea at the core of the President’s speech is built around the triad “inson qadri – mahalla – farovonlik” (human dignity – mahalla – welfare), where the goal of reforms is sustainable growth, improved quality of life, and the further strengthening of Uzbekistan’s position.

Ilyos Rabbimov, CERR

CERR Public Relations Service

For inquiries, please contact:

(78) 150 02 02 (417)

Authors:

Eldor Aripov, Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

KANG Myongil, Senior Executive Director of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security

When a diplomatic dialogue is elevated from the level of foreign ministers to that of heads of state, it is rarely a matter of protocol alone. Such decisions are typically made when existing mechanisms of cooperation no longer match the scale of emerging challenges.

That is precisely why the upcoming inaugural Republic of Korea-Central Asia Summit marks an important milestone in relations between the two sides. The state visit of President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Seoul will take place on the occasion of the Summit.

The Republic of Korea-Central Asia framework itself is not new. For nearly two decades, it has served as a valuable platform for political dialogue and practical cooperation, generating numerous joint initiatives. Bringing the format to the leaders' level, however, reflects a qualitative shift — from sectoral coordination toward strategic decision-making.

For the Republic of Korea, this elevation also reflects a clear commitment to engage Central Asia as a strong strategic partner and to forge a mutually beneficial partnership that builds on strong bilateral ties while advancing broader regional cooperation.

The principal reason for this elevation lies not in a sudden change in Seoul's policy but in the convergence of two developments: the transformation of Central Asia itself and Korea's determination to deepen strategic engagement with the region.

Over the past several years, the region has undergone perhaps its most profound transformation since independence. The Central Asian states have significantly strengthened mutual trust, institutionalized regular political dialogue, and launched mechanisms for practical regional cooperation. As a result, Central Asia is increasingly viewed not simply as a geographical concept, but as a region with the capacity to pursue shared priorities and act with greater strategic coherence.

Against this backdrop, the Republic of Korea's growing interest in the region is hardly accidental.

Korea's economic competitiveness increasingly depends not only on technological leadership but also on resilient supply chains, diversified production networks, and reliable long-term partnerships. Seoul is therefore seeking partners that can offer strategic resources, industrial potential, skilled human capital, and political stability at the same time.

Korea's approach, however, should not be understood as a narrow search for resources or market access. Its comparative strength lies in jointly creating value through technology and knowledge sharing, capacity building, industrial diversification, and the development of secure and sustainable supply chains.

Central Asia is steadily emerging as one such partner, and Korea, for its part, can be a reliable partner in the region's efforts to diversify its economies and move up global value chains.

Today, the region is becoming one of Eurasia's most promising growth markets. Its combined population has surpassed 85 million, with more than half under the age of thirty, while its economies have maintained solid growth in recent years. This combination of demographic dynamism, expanding domestic markets, and growing regional connectivity is reshaping perceptions of Central Asia among global investors and technology-driven economies alike.

Uzbekistan occupies a pivotal place in this transformation.

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's policy of openness and proactive regional engagement has become a key driver of Central Asia's growing cohesion. Uzbekistan, home to nearly 38 million people — almost half of the region's population — has played a leading role in promoting dialogue, connectivity and practical cooperation across Central Asia.

The country has likewise deepened its partnership with the Republic of Korea. Bilateral trade has nearly doubled over the past eight years. Around 700 enterprises with Korean capital are currently operating in Uzbekistan, while cumulative Korean investment has exceeded US$8 billion. Korean companies are active across a wide range of sectors, including energy, chemicals, engineering, healthcare, digital technologies and education.

People-to-people ties are equally significant. Uzbekistan is home to the largest ethnic Korean community in the post-Soviet space, numbering approximately 170,000 people. The presence of campuses of leading Korean universities further underscores the long-term and multidimensional nature of bilateral cooperation.

These human links give the partnership a distinctive depth. The “Koryo-Saram,” ethnic Koreans in Central Asia, is not only a reminder of shared history, but also a living bridge between the two societies: Expanding educational exchanges and professional mobility can ensure that this relationship remains strong for the next generation.

Yet the true significance of the partnership extends well beyond these impressive figures.

For Central Asia, the Republic of Korea represents one of the world's most compelling examples of successful modernization. Within the span of a single generation, Korea transformed itself from a developing economy into a global technology powerhouse. For a region pursuing ambitious economic reforms, industrial upgrading, and digital transformation, Korea's experience offers not simply a model to study but a practical source of policy inspiration and institutional know-how.

Against this backdrop, the first Republic of Korea-Central Asia Summit at the level of heads of state carries significance far beyond the diplomatic calendar.

It reflects a simple but important reality: Relations between the Republic of Korea and Central Asia have reached a level of maturity where future progress depends not on expanding the number of individual projects but on defining a shared long-term strategic vision.

If the past two decades were devoted to building a solid foundation for cooperation, the decade ahead should be shaped by a common response to the challenges of a new economic era — from artificial intelligence and digital transformation to critical minerals, green infrastructure, industrial cooperation, and human capital development.

This is the broader significance of the upcoming summit.

Its historic importance lies not merely in bringing regional leaders together for the first time but in providing an opportunity to define the next stage of a partnership whose ambitions have already outgrown its previous institutional framework. Success should therefore be measured not only by the number of agreements to be announced in Seoul but by whether the summit establishes regular dialogue at the leaders' level and a practical roadmap that delivers visible and mutually beneficial results for both the Republic of Korea and Central Asia.

Dear participants of the conference!

Ladies and gentlemen!

First of all, from the bottom of my heart, I sincerely congratulate you, my dear ones, on the opening of today's prestigious event - the joint conference of the International Textile Federation and the International Association of Apparel Manufacturers.

I would like to express my special gratitude to the President of the International Federation of Textile Manufacturers Mr. Kei Vi Srinavasan and President of the International Association of Apparel Manufacturers Mr. Chem Altan for the fact that this joint conference is being held in Uzbekistan for the first time.

At the same time, I express my sincere gratitude to the high-ranking representatives of the industry, heads of prestigious international and regional organizations participating in this conference.

Welcome to the pearl of the ancient Great Silk Road, the land of craftsmen - the majestic city of Samarkand!

Dear participants of the conference!

In recent years we have taken decisive steps to radically improve the investment and business environment, create favorable conditions for foreign and domestic investors.

As in all spheres and sectors, we have been implementing large-scale reforms in the textile and garment industries.

First of all, the state monopoly in cotton cultivation has been abolished, and a cluster system has been created and is being consistently improved, covering the entire process from raw material procurement to the production of finished goods.

Our reforms in this area have won the recognition of prestigious international organizations, and the boycott of Uzbek cotton has been lifted. Our cooperation with the international coalition “Cotton Campaign” continues in this direction.

At the same time, as a result of creating a stable legislative framework, improving the investment environment and introducing new technologies, the volume of cotton fiber processing increased from 40 percent in 2017 to 100 percent. At the same time, the work on import of cotton raw materials and production of finished products with high added value began.

Thanks to the opportunities created in the sphere, the volume of textile production has increased 5 times, its export - 4 times.

The most important thing is that earlier a significant part, i.e. 70 percent of exports in the sector, was accounted for raw materials, while today 60 percent of exported goods are finished products.

In the first years of reforms, we identified as a priority task the development of human capital, training of the population, especially young people and women, in professions, training of qualified personnel for all sectors, and these issues will continue to be in the center of our attention.

Decent working conditions that meet international requirements are created for the employees of enterprises, and the “Better Work” and “Better Cotton” programs are systematically implemented.

Particular attention is paid to ensuring labor rights and providing full support to over 600,000 workers.

At the same time, decisive measures are taken to create national brands, attract prestigious international and foreign trademarks to our country.

Authoritative participants of the world market, such as “Teamdress” (Germany), “Cotonella” (Italy), “Indorama” (Singapore), “Posco International” and “Gwangyang” (South Korea) are effectively operating in the country.

Uzbekistan's textile industry is being actively integrated into global production processes, and the number of our reliable partners on all continents of the world is increasing.

It should be noted that long-term cooperation with foreign investors and international brands, increasing production of high value-added products, bringing national brands to the international level will remain our priorities in the textile industry in the future.

I am convinced that today's conference will serve as an effective platform for further strengthening and expanding cooperation in this area on an international scale, sharing best practices and ideas.

I hope it will contribute to further expansion of mutually beneficial cooperation between representatives of more than 500 national and international organizations, manufacturers and retailers participating in the conference, and will bring the development of the industry to a qualitatively new level.

We highly appreciate and support all mutually beneficial initiatives of our foreign partners. In particular, we are ready to provide all possible assistance in introducing the necessary standards for international brands to enter Uzbekistan.

We are ready to create all necessary conditions for prestigious international organizations to regularly hold conferences, exhibitions and fashion shows in our country, particularly in such cities as Bukhara, Khiva, Shakhrisabz, Margilan, Kokand, Namangan, Andijan, which have high tourism and industrial potential.

I am confident that the ancient history, rich cultural heritage of our country, meetings with our hard-working and generous people will make an indelible impression on you, and the huge socio-economic potential of our regions will encourage investors to implement new projects.

I congratulate you once again on the opening of the prestigious conference that is starting today and wish you all good health, happiness and prosperity, success in the fruitful work of the conference.


Shavkat Mirziyoyev,

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

The first quarter proved highly favorable for Uzbekistan’s economy. Economic growth reached 8.7%, inflation fell to its lowest level in recent years, investment hit a record high, and exports continued to expand steadily.

Economic Growth Dynamics

The pace of economic growth achieved by Uzbekistan in the first quarter exceeded the expectations of international institutions. The Asian Development Bank had projected 6.7% growth for the first quarter. The World Bank initially forecast 6.0%, but revised it upward to 6.4% in April. The IMF also raised its forecast in April from 6.2% to 6.8%.

In practice, Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 8.7%. GDP in current prices amounted to $36.9 bn. The forecast closest to the actual result came from the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (Uzbekistan), which projected first-quarter growth of up to 7% at the beginning of the year.

The strongest growth was recorded in construction, where gross value added increased by 15.0%. The services sector expanded by 8.8%, retaining its position as the largest segment of the economy. Industry grew by 8.0%, while agriculture increased by 5.1%.

Significant gains were also seen in oil refining, up 29.5%. In light industry, apparel and textile production rose by 15.3%, while knitwear output increased by 26.9%. In automotive manufacturing, production expanded by 12.5%, including buses by 64.7% and trucks by 46.6%. Within services, the highest growth rates were recorded in education, up 22.5%, and financial services, up 22.4%.

An important contribution to overall growth also came from measures aimed at reducing the shadow economy. Its share declined from 24.8% to 22.9%, while legalized business activity supported higher recorded growth figures.

Another major factor behind accelerated growth has been the country’s active market reforms, which were recognized this year in the Index of Economic Freedom, where Uzbekistan rose by 14 positions and entered the category of moderately free economies for the first time.

Overcoming Inflationary Challenges

External pressures continue to affect domestic price formation. Global oil prices have risen by 40% since the beginning of the year. Geopolitical tensions have disrupted logistics corridors, increasing transportation costs for trade flows by 25–30%. As a result of these disruptions, imports of cattle into Uzbekistan fell by half in the first quarter, creating risks for food security.

To stabilize food prices, the government introduced partial reimbursement of air freight costs for imports of breeding livestock and meat products. It also approved the import of 100,000 breeding sheep and goats from Mongolia with compensation of 50% of transport costs.

Since the beginning of the year, Uzbekistan has actively implemented a new system of inflation management and price stability. For all responsible officials and regional governors, the key task for 2026 has been defined as maintaining stable prices for essential food products and keeping annual inflation below 6.5%.

As a result of these measures, despite external pressures, the inflation environment improved significantly in the first quarter. Consumer prices rose by 1.93% in January–March. In March alone, monthly inflation stood at 0.6%, while annual inflation fell to 7.1% for the first time, compared with 10.34% a year earlier.

Budget Policy and Regional Development

Thanks to such dynamic economic growth, Uzbekistan’s State Budget revenues also increased steadily in the first quarter, rising by 35% year-on-year. Tax revenues grew by 24%, while customs revenues increased by 20% compared with the same period last year.

Funds retained by local budgets rose by 21%. In addition, land sales and privatization processes generated an extra $47.1 mn for local budgets. At the same time, $90.6 mn were transferred from the republican budget to local budgets to support the regions. As a result, district-level local budgets retained $115.3 mn, nearly 4.2 times more than the $28.5 mn recorded in the same period last year.

This demonstrates the continued and consistent policy course toward expanding the financial autonomy of the regions, helping unlock local potential and support dynamic regional development.

Investment Outlook

Investment activity in Uzbekistan reached a record level in the first quarter. Capital investment and development projects totaled $12.85 bn, up 41.5%. Foreign direct investment increased by 45.7% to $8.84 bn. During the quarter, 1,508 new projects worth $1.185 bn were launched, creating around 28,000 new jobs.

In the first quarter, investment volumes exceeded $50 mn in 50 cities and districts, while in 21 of them the figure surpassed $100 mn, indicating broader regional investment activity. By source of foreign investment, China ranked first with $6.4 bn, followed by Russia with $1.1 bn, Türkiye with $975 mn, the UAE with $824 mn, and Germany with $342 mn.

Overall, in 2026 Uzbekistan plans to implement 125 projects with the participation of international financial institutions and foreign state financial organizations, attracting $5.1 bn. In the first quarter alone, $947 mn in foreign loans had already been mobilized from these sources, exceeding forecast targets by 120%. These projects have already delivered tangible results in infrastructure development and improved living standards.

The next important step in attracting investment may be the listing of state assets on international markets. Speaking at the meeting, the President announced that 30% of state assets worth $2.4 bn would soon be placed on international stock exchanges for the first time. This is linked to the establishment of the National Investment Fund and the transfer of management of 13 strategic enterprises to Franklin Templeton.

The country’s overall target for this year is to attract $53 bn in foreign investment. Officials were also instructed to introduce an AI-based platform that would provide optimal project recommendations for specific regions. Investors and consulting companies will be granted access to the platform through a one-stop-shop mechanism.

Growing Export Potential

Total exports of goods and services maintained strong growth momentum in the first quarter, reaching $5.8 bn, up 26% year-on-year, or by $1.2 bn. Export growth was recorded in 147 districts and cities across the country. As a result, the total number of exporting enterprises reached 4,000.

In particular, exports of natural uranium amounted to $402.6 mn, up 95%. Exports of non-ferrous metals reached $248.7 mn, doubling year-on-year. Oil and gas exports totaled $160 mn, up 15%.

Positive dynamics were also observed in manufacturing. Textile exports reached $731 mn, up 18%. Exports of construction materials totaled $304 mn, rising by 75%. Jewelry exports reached $214 mn, up 54%.

Agricultural and food exports also posted solid growth. Fruit and vegetable exports reached $320 mn, up 12%. Food exports totaled $282 mn, surging by 120%. Strong momentum was also seen in services, where exports reached $2.2 bn, up 35% year-on-year, or by $573 mn.

The geography of exports continues to expand. In January–March, previously non-exported goods worth $162 mn across more than 140 product categories were supplied for the first time to 86 countries, including the United States, Austria, Belarus, Poland, South Korea, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Afghanistan.

Despite these achievements, external market challenges continue to affect exporters. The President noted that over the past six months, due to changing conditions among foreign partners, 908 entrepreneurs with signed contracts worth $3.6 bn had still been unable to begin exports.

Support for Entrepreneurship

Active support for small and medium-sized businesses continued in the first quarter. This year, $11.5 bn is being allocated through banks for this purpose. In the first quarter, entrepreneurs received $2.9 bn in credit resources, including $659 mn under state support programs. A total of 21,000 microprojects were implemented, helping raise incomes for 52,000 residents.

At the same time, certain shortcomings remain. Not all districts and cities are equally effective in converting loans into permanent jobs, and the differences are considerable. To address this issue, the President emphasized the need to use AI tools in credit allocation and instructed banks to launch an “AI Consultant” platform.

The meeting also discussed optimization of government administrations and the creation of new business spaces. Since many central and busy streets in district centers are occupied by state institutions, 19 districts and cities have already begun relocating government offices into unified administrative centers, with vacated premises transferred to businesses. Scaling up these measures nationwide would free up 5 mn m2 of space for business activity.

Social Policy

A strong social policy and active measures to reduce poverty and promote employment continued in the first quarter.

Permanent jobs were provided to 167,000 people, while 737,000 citizens received assistance in creating additional income sources and improving their living standards. An important contribution came from formalizing 241,000 previously informal workers, giving them access to social protection, financial services, and stable employment.

Special attention in social policy is being given to low-income families. A total of 105,000 support services were delivered to 86,000 vulnerable families, including employment assistance, training, business start-up support, and income generation. Under women’s support programs, 26,000 women were employed, while youth support programs benefited 58,000 young citizens.

To accelerate development in territories facing difficult socio-economic conditions, $297 mn were allocated from the republican budget. Additional support of $329 mn was also directed to areas granted the status of “New Image of Uzbekistan.”

These policies continue to contribute to lower poverty and higher living standards. Poverty fell to 5.0% in the first quarter, while unemployment stood at 4.7%. According to forecasts, both indicators may decline further to 4.3% by mid-year.

Significant attention is also being paid to social infrastructure and improving living conditions with the active participation of international financial institutions. In the first quarter, 89 km of drinking water networks, 8.2 km of sewerage networks, and 40 km of roads were built.

These measures are creating a sustainable foundation for further poverty reduction, stronger employment, higher welfare, and better living conditions across all regions of Uzbekistan.

Perspectives

It is useful to compare Uzbekistan’s first-quarter growth performance with the global economy and other countries.

In its April forecast, the IMF lowered projected global growth from 3.3% in January to 3.1% in April. Growth in advanced economies is expected at 1.5–1.6%, while developing economies are projected at above 4%. US growth is forecast at 2.0–2.1%, while Europe is expected to remain the weakest region, with UK growth revised downward to 0.8%.

The IMF identified India as the fastest-growing major economy, with projected growth of 7.3%. Yet Uzbekistan’s first-quarter growth exceeded even that figure, reaching 8.7%. This reflects the soundness and effectiveness of ongoing reforms, as well as strong and responsive economic management, where emerging challenges are addressed without delay.

Uzbekistan is expected to maintain high growth momentum in 2026. Real GDP growth is projected in the range of 8.3–8.7%, with services rising by 9.1%, industry by 8.7%, and construction by 11.5%.

At the same time, despite these positive results, the President noted that there is no room for complacency. Against the backdrop of intensifying global rivalry, the world economy will no longer be as stable as before. This requires special focus in the current year on sustaining growth, containing inflation, creating jobs, expanding exports, and improving the quality of investment.

Khurshed Asadov, Deputy Director of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms under the Administration of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Хуршед Асадов, ЦЭИР

Samarkand Forum of the Asian Development Bank
In the Context of Contemporary Challenges and Historical Significance

In early May, Samarkand hosted the 59th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank under the theme “Crossroads of Progress: Advancing the Region’s Connected Future.” The President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, outlined key priorities for further cooperation with the ADB.

The forum brought together more than 4,000 experts from over 100 countries, including representatives of foreign governments, international financial institutions, leading banks, and major corporations. The central topics of discussion included digital and green transformation, climate resilience, supply chain development, and food security.

Uzbekistan and the Asian Development Bank: Effective Partnership

Uzbekistan joined the ADB in 1995. Over the past 30 years, the Bank has become a reliable strategic partner for the country. The current portfolio of joint projects has reached nearly $16 billion. Uzbekistan has become the Bank’s largest partner in the region by operational volume and ranks among the top 10 countries globally in terms of ADB operations.

In August 2024, the ADB launched a new Country Partnership Strategy for Uzbekistan for 2024–2028. This five-year strategy focuses on supporting the transition to a green economy, enhancing private sector development and competitiveness, and stimulating investment in human capital, in line with the national development priorities outlined in the “Uzbekistan–2030” strategy.

ADB financing across sectors is distributed as follows: transport – $3.1 billion; energy – $2.9 billion; water supply, sanitation, and urban services – $1.4 billion; agriculture and water resources – $0.9 billion.

Through effective cooperation with the ADB, more than 1,400 km of railway lines and 1,700 km of roads have been modernized. Over 4,000 km of water supply networks have been completed, and around 750 educational institutions have been upgraded. In 2025, a record annual commitment volume exceeding $1.4 billion was achieved.

New Cooperation Program with Uzbekistan

During the Samarkand forum, a new partnership program between Uzbekistan and the ADB through 2030 was adopted. It envisages the implementation of projects totaling $12.5 billion, including infrastructure development, support for reforms, private sector growth, and public-private partnerships.

Key components include: infrastructure financing – $2.6 billion; results-based lending – $2.2 billion; budget support for reforms – $3.3 billion; multitranche financing facilities – $350 million; partial credit guarantees – $250 million; direct private sector financing – $2 billion; PPP projects – $1.7 billion.

Priority Areas Outlined by the President

In his address, the President of Uzbekistan emphasized the need to introduce new mechanisms and approaches for sustainable development amid global economic challenges and rapid technological change.

First, digital technologies and artificial intelligence are transforming virtually all sectors. By 2040, AI is expected to increase global trade volumes by an additional 40%. The adoption of open AI models is therefore essential in key sectors such as education, healthcare, water management, environmental protection, and food security. Uzbekistan proposed developing a dedicated ADB-led program to scale AI adoption in developing countries and announced its accession to the Bank’s “Digital Highway for Asia” initiative, including the establishment of a regional coordination center in Tashkent.

Second, the expansion of digital technologies and AI is driving a sharp increase in energy demand. By 2030, electricity consumption by data centers is projected to rise by 2–3 times compared to current levels. Only countries capable of providing affordable and reliable green energy will remain competitive globally. Uzbekistan identified green energy development as a strategic priority and acknowledged ADB support for the “Central Asia–Europe” green energy corridor aimed at expanding clean energy exports.

Third, ensuring the connectivity of transport systems and the stability of logistics corridors is becoming increasingly critical. Changes in global logistics routes have already led to transport cost increases of up to 30% for Central Asian countries, with delivery times extended by several weeks. In this context, the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway project is of particular importance. Uzbekistan proposed establishing a “Digital Customs and Logistics Alliance” within the CAREC framework.

Fourth, according to international experts, demand for critical minerals will increase sixfold by 2040. Uzbekistan possesses significant reserves of copper, tungsten, molybdenum, magnesium, graphite, vanadium, titanium, and other resources. To ensure deep processing and production of high value-added goods, Uzbekistan proposed joining the ADB’s “From Critical Minerals to Production” program.

Fifth, climate change and desertification pose serious challenges to Central Asia. The ADB is implementing its Climate Action Plan through 2030, allocating at least 50% of its annual financing to climate-related projects. Uzbekistan proposed launching a regional “Green Belt of Central Asia” initiative to complement national afforestation efforts in the Aral Sea region.

Sixth, amid global instability, demand for safe travel destinations is growing. Central Asia has strong potential in pilgrimage, cultural, gastronomic, ethnographic, extreme, and medical tourism. Uzbekistan proposed creating a “Central Asia Tourist Ring” to integrate regional tourism offerings.

To advance these initiatives, Uzbekistan aims to fully utilize ADB financial instruments, including mobilizing private capital, and proposed establishing an Innovative Platform for Financing Regional Projects.

Transformation of ADB Operations

The implementation of these initiatives requires a transformation of the ADB’s institutional model. In response to global economic shifts, rapid technological change, and increasing interdependence, the Bank is shifting its focus toward sustainability, regional integration, and future-oriented infrastructure.

A key direction is the expansion of investments in next-generation infrastructure, including cross-border energy networks, electricity trade, and digital infrastructure such as internet connectivity and data transmission networks.

Another major shift is the transition from financing predominantly national projects to prioritizing regional systems. This includes integrating energy systems, developing regional electricity markets, and advancing digital integration across Asia.

These priorities are reflected in two major initiatives announced at the Samarkand forum, totaling $70 billion through 2035, aimed at energy system integration, cross-border electricity trade, digital corridors, data centers, and broadband expansion across Asia and the Pacific.

A significant announcement was also the launch of the “Critical Minerals-to-Manufacturing Financing Partnership Facility,” covering the full value chain from exploration and resource mapping to the production of final goods, including chemicals, batteries, renewable energy components, electronics, as well as recycling and reuse.

For Uzbekistan, this approach is particularly relevant, as the country is already developing value chains based on its mineral resources. The ADB program is expected to accelerate this process significantly.

Overall, the transformation of the ADB reflects a shift toward supporting systemic resilience and regional markets. This includes three key transitions: from individual projects to integrated economic systems; from national to regional focus; and from development support to long-term economic sustainability.

As a result, the ADB is evolving from a project financing institution into a coordinating platform for regional economic connectivity, strengthening its role in Asia’s integration amid the formation of competing global economic blocs.

Conclusion

The 59th Annual Meeting of the ADB Board of Governors in Samarkand was of significant importance not only for Uzbekistan due to its international prestige and the adoption of a new cooperation program, but also for the entire Asia-Pacific region.

The forum marked the launch of two major initiatives and the new “From Critical Minerals to Production” program, reflecting the Bank’s updated strategy aimed at enhancing economic stability and regional consolidation in Asia.

Holding the forum in Samarkand is symbolic. Historically a crossroads of trade and culture between East and West, the city once again serves as a focal point for shaping the region’s future.

It was here that initiatives and decisions were announced that may influence the development trajectory of all Asia, reinforcing Samarkand’s role as a platform for dialogue and strategic vision.

Viktor Abaturov,
Center for Economic Research and Reforms

The text of the article is in Uzbek.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has demonstrated significant progress in the field of international tourism, which pays special attention to cooperation with the CIS countries. Historically, this region has close cultural, economic and humanitarian ties with Uzbekistan, which contributes to the active exchange of tourists and the development of joint initiatives in the tourism industry. According to statistics for January–August 2024 and 2025, there has been a steady increase in the total number of tourists from 6.7 million visiting Uzbekistan to more than 7.5 million with an annual increase of 15-20% per year. By the end of 2025, more than 11 million foreign tourists are expected to arrive.
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain the most significant sources of tourists among the CIS countries. In 2024, Kazakhstan sent more than 2.1 million tourists to Uzbekistan in January – August, Kyrgyzstan — about 1.78 million, and Tajikistan — almost 1.6 million. In 2025, Kyrgyzstan slightly surpassed Kazakhstan in the number of visitors — 2.16 million against 1.77 million, which indicates a positive trend towards strengthening bilateral ties in the field of tourism. Tajikistan also showed an increase of almost 1.7 million tourists. In addition to the traditional leaders, the number of tourists from Turkmenistan increased significantly in January–August, from 125,000 in 2024 to 243,000 in 2025. This growth confirms the growing attractiveness of Uzbekistan as a tourist destination for all neighboring countries.
The CIS countries with fewer tourists, such as Azerbaijan, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia, Ukraine and Russia, also note positive dynamics. The increase in the number of Russian tourists in January –August is particularly noteworthy — from 587,000 in 2024 to more than 663,000 in 2025, reflecting the strengthening of tourist and cultural ties between the two countries. The growth of the tourist flow from the CIS is largely due to Uzbekistan's comprehensive work to improve infrastructure, simplify visa procedures, and actively promote travel brands. The development of transport links, the introduction of modern services and the expansion of the range of tourism products make Uzbekistan more and more attractive to visitors from neighboring countries.
Uzbekistan is the historical center and pearl of the Great Silk Road, the crossroads of world cultures and civilizations. There are more than 8,000 cultural heritage sites in the country. 209 of them are part of four museum cities included in the UNESCO World Heritage List. The magnificent monuments of the ancient cities of Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva attract many tourists who want to get acquainted with the rich heritage of the region. Samarkand is the ancient capital of the empire of the great commander Amir Temur, which houses the most beautiful Registan ensemble, the Ulugbek Observatory and the Imam Al-Bukhari complex, the most important for Muslims, the fabulous city of Bukhara, famous throughout the Islamic world with its Bahauddin Naqshbandi complex, the Ark fortress and the Poi Kalyan ensemble, the capital of the Khorezmshah State Khiva with a museum city open-air Ichan-Kala, and of course the city of Shakhrisabz, where Amir Temur was born and built the Ok-Saroy palace there.
Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, is the geographical center and the largest hub of Central Asia, a connecting bridge between East and West. Tourists can get great emotions and impressions from their stay in Tashkent, which has many interesting sights, including the architecture of modernity and the ancient East. Uzbekistan is not only a historical city, but also a huge number of natural attractions: the picturesque mountains of the Western Tien Shan and Pamir Alai, mysterious caves, the endless Kyzylkum desert, a huge number of lakes, the Ustyurt plateau and the Aral Sea in Karakalpakstan. It should be noted that Uzbekistan occupies high places in the world tourism rankings, in the field of security, historical attractions, family tourism, gastronomy, etc. There is a tourist police in all tourist centers of the country, thanks to which all foreign visitors feel safe at all times. At the same time, over the past 10 years, Uzbekistan has not had any incidents related to the safety of tourists in the country, which could negatively affect the tourist image of Uzbekistan. Great attention is paid to youth tourism in the country, special tours of historical subjects, ecotourism, extreme tourism, and industrial tourism have been formed to visit various production facilities, which also serve as their subsequent professional orientation.
The Government of Uzbekistan has identified several territories with high tourism potential as free tourist zones created specifically for businesses operating in the tourism sector. Conditions have been created to attract foreign investment in the tourism sector. To encourage investors, various incentives have been introduced for the hotel sector, the construction of tourist complexes and infrastructure. Business representatives from the CIS countries are the most active investors, creating both enterprises with 100 foreign investments and joint ventures in the tourism industry of Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan invites Russian investors to take an active part in joint projects in the territories of Charvak, Chimgan, Nanai, Baysun, Maidanak, Miraki, Parkent, Akhangaran, Angren, Akchakul, Tudakul, Aydarkul and others tourist zones. The development of tourism with the CIS countries is becoming not only a factor of economic growth, but also an important element in strengthening interstate relations, cultural exchange and friendship of peoples. The growth of the tourist flow contributes to the creation of new jobs, the development of small and medium-sized businesses and the improvement of the standard of living of the population. The prospects for further development of tourism ties between Uzbekistan and the CIS countries look very promising. Enhanced cooperation, exchange of experience and implementation of innovative solutions will make the region one of the most attractive and dynamically developing tourist destinations in Eurasia. The Committee on Tourism of Uzbekistan is ready to support the tourism business of our countries in the implementation of joint projects, and create all necessary conditions for comfortable travel of tourists of all categories from the CIS countries.

Head of the Department of
Transport and Logistics Development Shukhrat Isakulov

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia Antonella Bassani on September 30.

The sides considered topical issues of further expansion of strategic cooperation with the World Bank Group and support of this leading international financial institution to the ongoing reform program in New Uzbekistan.

At the beginning of the meeting, Vice President Antonella Bassani conveyed to the head of our state sincere greetings and best wishes of World Bank President Ajay Bangui.

During the conversation, the current high level and fruitful nature of bilateral cooperation were noted with deep satisfaction.

In recent years, our country has become one of the largest partners of the Bank - the portfolio of projects has increased several times and now exceeds 12 billion dollars.

The World Bank supports the implementation of important reforms aimed at ensuring the sustainability of economic and social sectors. Since July this year, the Bank's regional office has been operating in Tashkent.

Such areas as poverty reduction, transformation of state-owned enterprises and banks, decarbonization, support for WTO accession and others have been identified as priorities for further expansion of the partnership.

Special attention was paid to the programs of urbanization and integrated development of regions, modernization of energy and irrigation infrastructure, support to the private sector.

There was also an exchange of views on the promotion of regional projects.

We, the participants of the First International Islamic Civilization Forum, held on July 7–8, 2026, in Tashkent, express our profound gratitude to His Excellency Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, and acknowledge the exceptional significance for contemporary society of the historic initiative he presented in September 2017 at the 72nd session of the United Nations General Assembly. This initiative seeks the revival, scientific study, and broad dissemination of the rich humanistic heritage of Islamic civilization.

We unanimously recognize that the establishment of the Islamic Civilization Center in the Republic of Uzbekistan, the effective organization of its activities, and the convening of the First International Islamic Civilization Forum represent the practical realization of this initiative. These efforts have undoubtedly marked the beginning of a new era of international cooperation in the study, preservation, and promotion of the invaluable heritage of the Muslim Ummah.

Based on the principles of peace, tolerance, education, and intercultural and interreligious dialogue;

noting the enormous contribution of Islamic civilization to the development of global science, education, art, architecture, and spiritual and intellectual thought;

recognizing the need to counter ignorance, extremism, xenophobia, Islamophobia, and distorted perceptions of Islamic heritage;

emphasizing that the scientific study of religious and cultural heritage is becoming increasingly important for strengthening international trust and ensuring sustainable development;

recognizing the historical contributions of both ancient and modern Uzbekistan, as well as the broader region, to the formation and advancement of Islamic and global civilization, we hereby adopt this Declaration.

1. To establish a new framework for international cooperation in the study, preservation, and dissemination of the heritage of Islamic civilization, the participants of the First International Islamic Civilization Forum propose the following global initiatives:

1. World Alliance for Islamic Civilization
   
   

The establishment of a World Alliance for Islamic Civilization, anchored by the Islamic Civilization Center in Uzbekistan, is proposed to unite international organizations, scientific and educational institutions, academies of sciences, museums, libraries, foundations, archives, centers of Islamic manuscripts, research institutes, and other relevant entities.

The primary objective of the Alliance is to foster sustained international cooperation, implement collaborative scientific, educational, cultural, museum, and digital initiatives, facilitate the exchange of knowledge and best practices, and coordinate efforts to preserve, study, and promote the creative achievements of Islamic civilization as an essential component of global cultural and intellectual heritage.

2. World Digital Registry of the Islamic Civilization Heritage

The development and maintenance of a unified international digital platform is proposed to aggregate manuscripts, archival materials, museum collections, architectural monuments, intangible cultural heritage, and scientific research related to the heritage of Islamic civilization.

3. International Program "Islamic Civilization: Heritage of All Humanity"
   
   

The implementation of a comprehensive international program is proposed to highlight Islamic civilization's contributions to global science, culture, and education. This initiative would encompass international exhibitions, educational projects, scientific conferences, publishing activities, and cultural events.

4. International Islamic Civilization Prize
   
   

The establishment of an international prize is proposed to honor individuals who have made significant contributions to the study, preservation, and dissemination of Islamic civilization's heritage, as well as to the advancement of science, education, intercultural dialogue, and humanitarian cooperation.

5. International Foundation for the Study of Islamic Civilization
   
   

The creation of an international foundation is proposed to support fundamental scientific research, the restoration of historical monuments, the training of emerging scholars, the implementation of publishing projects, and the advancement of international academic collaboration.

6. Global Digital Library of Islamic Civilization
   
   

Establish a multilingual digital library that integrates manuscripts, scholarly works, archival documents, museum collections, educational resources, and digital exhibitions dedicated to the heritage of Islamic civilization.

7. International Encyclopedia of Islamic Civilization
   
   

Develop and publish a comprehensive, multi-volume scholarly encyclopedia focused on the history of Islamic civilization, prominent scholars, schools of thought, cultural monuments, and major achievements of the Islamic world.

8. Annual International Report on the State of the Islamic Civilization Heritage
   
   

Establish a framework for the annual production of an analytical report that addresses the condition of cultural and educational heritage sites, the outcomes of scientific research, current challenges, and opportunities for international cooperation in preserving and studying the heritage of Islamic civilization.

9. International Youth Islamic Civilization Forum
   
   

Establish a permanent international platform for dialogue among young scholars, researchers, students, and specialists in cultural heritage, with the objective of cultivating a new generation of scholars in Islamic civilization.

10. International Union of Museums of Islamic Culture, Art, and Civilization
    
    

Establish an International Union of Museums of Islamic Culture, Art, and Civilization to unite leading museums, museum complexes, galleries, and specialized institutions from multiple countries.

The Union aims to advance international museum cooperation, organize joint exhibitions, conduct research and implement restoration, educational, and digital initiatives, facilitate the exchange of collections, best practices, and specialists, and preserve, study, and promote the heritage of Islamic culture, art, and civilization.

Maintain the Forum's International Council, elected at the First International Islamic Civilization Forum, as a permanent coordinating body. Assign it the responsibility of consolidating all initiatives and proposals from Forum participants, developing and approving an international roadmap for joint actions through 2030, and presenting this roadmap to Forum participants, international organizations, and the Government of the Republic of Uzbekistan as a practical mechanism for implementing this Declaration.

We, the Forum participants, urge states, international organizations, scientific institutions, universities, museums, libraries, and public organizations to collaborate in implementing these initiatives for the sake of peace, mutual respect, education, and the preservation of the rich heritage of Islamic civilization as an essential component of the world's cultural treasury.

1. Introduction

Central and South Asia form one of Eurasia’s most significant geographic junctions. Central Asia connects the continent’s east–west and north–south routes, while South Asia contains one of the world’s largest population bases and consumer markets. Taken together, the countries of the two subregions have a population of more than 2 billion people; however, their direct economic interaction remains below its potential level.

The scale of the potential market is confirmed by the figures: in 2024, the population of South Asia was approximately 1.68 billion people, while the region’s combined GDP was about US$4.5 trillion. At the same time, the economy of the five Central Asian countries in 2024 amounted to approximately US$489 billion. However, the level of interregional integration remains low: even within South Asia, intraregional trade is estimated at around 5% of total trade turnover, which is significantly lower than the ASEAN figure^[1][2][3].

This is evident in trade statistics: Central Asia’s main trade flows continue to be oriented toward Russia, China, the European Union, Türkiye, and the Middle East, while trade with South Asia occupies a comparatively limited niche.

The underused potential is explained not by a lack of demand, but by structural constraints. Between the two subregions, there are mountain barriers, complex cross-border routes, differing levels of integration into international supply chains, non-uniform customs and technical procedures, as well as the Afghanistan factor, which is simultaneously the shortest connecting link and the most sensitive element of the regional architecture. Therefore, the issue of connectivity has not only commercial but also strategic significance.

The restoration of economic ties between Central and South Asia should not be viewed as a romanticized return to historical routes. In modern conditions, it is a matter of competitiveness, supply-chain security, energy resilience, and diversification of foreign economic directions. For the countries of Central Asia, the southern route opens shorter access to the ports of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. For the countries of South Asia, it creates an opportunity to gain access to energy resources, food products, industrial goods, and new markets in Eurasia.

Uzbekistan occupies a special place in this logic. It is located in the central part of the region, borders all Central Asian states and Afghanistan, and therefore is capable of forming a link between the internal markets of Central Asia and the southern direction. At the same time, the role of a connector state means more than the transit of goods. It includes the coordination of infrastructure projects, the development of logistics services, the improvement of institutional quality, the creation of an analytical basis for decision-making, and the involvement of the private sector in interregional projects.

2. Historical and geographical preconditions for connectivity

The historical connection between Central and South Asia was formed long before the emergence of modern state borders. The cities of Transoxiana, Khorasan, Bactria, and northern India were part of a network of caravan routes and exchanges of artisanal goods, knowledge, religious traditions, and financial practices. Samarkand, Bukhara, Balkh, Merv, Kabul, Peshawar, and Lahore, in different periods, served as trade and cultural hubs linking the Eurasian space.

However, historical connectedness does not automatically translate into economic integration today. Modern supply chains depend on railways, highways, ports, energy networks, digital cargo-tracking systems, insurance, banking settlements, and predictable rules. Where even one of these elements is absent, transit becomes expensive, slow, and risky.

The geography of the region creates both incentives and constraints. On the one hand, the distance from Uzbekistan’s southern borders to northern Afghanistan is relatively short, and the route through Afghanistan is potentially the shortest overland path from Central Asia to Pakistan and onward to the ports of the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, mountain ranges, differences in railway gauge, the limited capacity of border infrastructure, security issues, and insufficient standardization of procedures increase the cost of projects.

Uzbekistan’s geographical role has not only qualitative but also measurable significance: the country is one of only two double-landlocked states in the world and, at the same time, the only state bordering all four other Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan. In this context, the Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway project, with a length of approximately 573 km, acquires systemic importance, since it could reduce the time and cost of transportation toward Pakistan’s ports by roughly 30%^[4].

Therefore, connectivity should be understood more broadly than the physical connection of two points on a map. In the modern economy, it includes four dimensions. The first is infrastructural: roads, railways, terminals, ports, and energy networks. The second is institutional: customs, tariffs, standards, sanitary and phytosanitary rules, permits, and transit guarantees. The third is commercial: demand, purchasing power, contracts, logistics companies, insurance, and banking channels. The fourth is social and humanitarian: education, labor skills, tourism, medical ties, and research cooperation.

This approach helps avoid oversimplification. Even the shortest road will not become a sustainable corridor unless it is supported by a reliable legal environment, competitive tariffs, financial guarantees, and coordination among states.

3. Current state of trade and economic cooperation

Trade and economic ties between Central and South Asia are developing, but their scale still does not correspond to the size of the markets. Trade between Central Asian countries and India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan remains relatively modest compared with their trade with China, Russia, the European Union, Türkiye, and countries of the Middle East.

Central Asia supplies, or could potentially expand supplies to South Asia, in such areas as agricultural products, grain, fruit and vegetable products, textiles, fertilizers, energy goods, certain types of metals, and industrial raw materials. South Asia, primarily India and Pakistan, holds competitive positions in pharmaceuticals, medical goods, IT services, equipment, textile products, processed food products, and consumer goods.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been strengthening the southern direction of its foreign economic policy. Trade ties with India and Pakistan are developing through pharmaceuticals, textiles, food products, services, logistics, and investment projects. Uzbekistan’s foreign trade in the southern direction is already growing, but it still occupies a limited place in the overall structure of foreign trade. The largest trade flows with South Asian countries are with Afghanistan and India. However, the very fact that certain bilateral flows are growing does not solve the main problem: interregional trade remains fragmented. In order to turn it into a sustainable market, it is necessary to reduce transaction costs, ensure the predictability of transit, make standards comparable, and develop business services.

The issue of trade data is especially important. Mutual trade is often assessed using different sources, while the statistics of exporting countries and importing countries may diverge. To develop effective policy, a regularly updated data panel is needed, broken down by corridors, types of cargo, border-crossing times, transportation costs, return loads, the number of permits, and the actual use of preferential regimes. Without such a database, regional initiatives risk remaining merely declaratory.

4. Transport and logistics infrastructure as the basis of connectivity

Transport infrastructure is the material foundation for the rapprochement of Central and South Asia. At the same time, it is more accurate to speak not of a single route, but of a portfolio of corridors. Relying on only one route increases the vulnerability of the entire system. A diversified network of routes through Afghanistan, Iran, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and existing Eurasian directions creates redundancy, reduces risks, and strengthens the negotiating position of shippers.

The key project in the southern direction remains the trans-Afghan railway corridor Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar. Its strategic value lies in its potential to connect Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries with Pakistan’s ports, including Karachi, Qasim, and Gwadar. If implemented, such a corridor could reduce the distance and delivery time for certain types of cargo. However, the project requires the resolution of several complex issues: financing, security, technical parameters, railway gauge compatibility, the operating model, tariffs, and the distribution of risks among participants.

The Termez–Hairatan hub in Uzbekistan has particular significance. It is the closest entry point from Uzbekistan into Afghanistan and is already used as a logistics, humanitarian, and trade channel. The development of terminals, warehouses, customs capacities, multimodal transport services, and digital cargo-control systems could turn this hub into a stable anchor point for interregional trade.

Alongside the trans-Afghan route, the route through Iran is also important. For India, Central Asia, and Afghanistan, the Chabahar port is of particular significance, as are its links with the International North–South Transport Corridor and the Ashgabat Agreement. This option does not replace the trans-Afghan route, but it increases the resilience of the trade system. Events of recent years have shown that the closure or restriction of individual routes quickly increases the importance of alternative pathways through Iran and the countries of Central Asia.

Road corridors remain a necessary complement to railways. They are especially important for perishable products, small consignments, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and high-value-added goods. In this area, the key factors are not only roads, but also border procedures, the permit system for carriers, weight control, insurance, the safety of parking areas, and access to backhaul cargo.

The development of air connectivity plays a separate role. Direct flights between Tashkent, Samarkand, Almaty, Astana, Delhi, Mumbai, Lahore, and other cities do not create mass freight logistics, but they reduce barriers to business travel, tourism, education, medical services, and managerial oversight of investment projects. For modern business, such mobility is not a secondary factor, but a systemic one.

5. Energy partnership: from project-based logic to a regional market

Energy is one of the most obvious areas of complementarity between Central and South Asia. The Central Asian countries possess significant resources in natural gas, hydropower, solar power, and wind generation. South Asia, primarily Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, faces high energy demand, seasonal consumption peaks, and the need for a more reliable supply structure.

The most advanced interregional project in the electricity sector is CASA-1000. According to World Bank materials, the project is intended to ensure the transmission of up to 1,300 MW of surplus summer electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The project also provides for high-voltage transmission infrastructure, including power transmission lines and converter stations. Its significance goes beyond the energy sector: it demonstrates the possibility of contract-based electricity trade between the subregions with the participation of international financial institutions.

In the gas sector, the best-known project is TAPI: Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India. Its planned logic is straightforward: Turkmen gas is expected to flow through Afghanistan to the energy-deficient markets of South Asia. Published descriptions of the project usually indicate a length of approximately 1,800 km and a designed capacity of up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. However, TAPI remains a complex project with a high dependence on security, financing, long-term contracts, payment guarantees, and political coordination among the participants.

CASA-1000 has not only political but also measurable infrastructural significance: the project cost is estimated at approximately US$1.2 billion, while the designed transmission capacity is 1,300 MW. The Kyrgyz component provides for around 456 km of 500 kV power transmission lines. This makes it possible to view CASA-1000 as the first major example of contract-based interregional electricity trade between Central and South Asia^[5][6].

The new energy agenda includes not only the export of fuel and electricity, but also the development of low-carbon solutions. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are expanding projects in solar, wind, and hydropower, while also modernizing their grids. In the long term, South Asia could become a market for seasonal electricity and energy services from Central Asia. However, this requires rules for cross-border trade, compatible dispatch mechanisms, commercial guarantees, transparent tariffs, and investment in grid resilience.

Energy cooperation must take into account climate and water-related factors. In Central Asia, hydropower is closely linked to irrigation and water resource management. In South Asia, electricity demand depends on temperature peaks, urbanization, and industrial growth. Therefore, energy projects should be accompanied by mechanisms for climate adaptation, forecasting water availability, improving energy efficiency, and developing energy storage systems.

6. Investment cooperation and business ties

Investment cooperation between Central and South Asia is still developing on a case-by-case basis, but it has significant potential. Unlike trade in raw materials, investment requires a higher level of trust, legal certainty, protection of property rights, clear tax regimes, access to foreign-exchange settlements, and high-quality business information.

The most promising areas include pharmaceuticals, medical services, agro-processing, textiles, logistics, warehouse infrastructure, IT services, education, tourism, financial technologies, renewable energy, and the production of components for infrastructure projects. South Asian companies have strong competencies in IT, pharmaceuticals, and services, while Central Asia offers access to raw materials, industrial sites, growing domestic markets, and transit opportunities.

An important task is to move from one-off business contacts to a systematic investment pipeline. This requires project catalogues, clear requirements for investors, standardized public-private partnership models, dispute-resolution mechanisms, insurance against political and commercial risks, and joint workforce training programs.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are of particular importance. Large infrastructure projects create the foundation, but it is small and medium-sized businesses that fill corridors with real goods and services. For them, access to information, affordable logistics services, digital marketplaces, simplified payments, standardized documents, and support in entering a new market are critical.

Development institutions and international financial organizations can play a catalytic role. Their participation reduces risks, improves the quality of project preparation, and disciplines the participants. However, external financing does not replace national reforms. Without clear rules, transparent statistics, and effective courts, even concessional loans will not create a sustainable flow of investment.

7. The strategic role of Uzbekistan as a connector state

Uzbekistan possesses a unique set of preconditions for playing the role of a connector state. It is located at the center of Central Asia, borders all the countries of the region as well as Afghanistan, and is also a major demographic and industrial market. For a country without access to the sea, the development of external corridors is not an optional task, but a condition for long-term competitiveness.

Uzbekistan’s role is not limited to transit. A transit country earns revenue from the movement of goods, but a connector state shapes rules, services, trust, and the institutional environment. This means developing multimodal hubs, creating logistics centers, digitalizing customs procedures, expanding railway and road links, training personnel, attracting banks and insurance organizations, and providing analytical support for projects.

The southern direction strengthens Uzbekistan’s foreign economic diversification. It complements the country’s already existing links in the northern, eastern, and western directions. At the same time, the diversification of routes reduces dependence on individual markets and transit pathways, which is especially important amid instability in global trade, changes in tariff policy, and geopolitical restrictions.

Termez occupies a special place in this strategy. It can serve as a border logistics center, a platform for trade with Afghanistan, a hub of humanitarian and commercial infrastructure, and a symbolic space for discussing connectivity between Central and South Asia. To turn this role into a sustainable result, investment is needed in terminals, railway approaches, warehouse capacity, services for carriers, and a system for analyzing cargo flows.

Uzbekistan’s strength also lies in its ability to put forward multilateral initiatives. Interregional connectivity cannot be implemented through bilateral agreements alone. It requires the alignment of interests among the countries of Central Asia, the countries of South Asia, Afghanistan, international financial institutions, business, and the expert community. In this sphere, Uzbekistan can act as a coordinator of the agenda and a provider of analytical solutions.

8. Key barriers and ways to overcome them

The first barrier is incomplete infrastructure. Many corridors exist in the form of project concepts or partially functioning routes. To transform them into commercially sustainable directions, technical and economic feasibility studies, agreed tariffs, clear sources of financing, unified operational models, and transparent risk allocation are required.

The second barrier is security and the predictability of transit. For business, what matters is not only the length of the route, but also the likelihood of delays, losses, border closures, changes in rules, and additional payments. Therefore, transport policy should include insurance mechanisms, security standards, corridor monitoring, crisis protocols, and regular information exchange among government agencies.

The third barrier is administrative fragmentation. Different documents, uncoordinated customs procedures, weak advance declaration, the absence of mutual recognition of certain certificates, and limited digital interoperability increase the cost of trade. The solution lies in the transition to electronic transport documents, the expansion of the single-window principle, the introduction of risk-based control, and the coordination of technical standards.

The scale of the financial challenge can be assessed through the example of CAREC: in 2021–2024, transport investment under the program amounted to US$8.61 billion, with a significant share of financing provided by international partners. This shows that infrastructure corridors require not only a political decision, but also a sustainable financial architecture^[7][8].

Administrative barriers have a measurable expression. According to CAREC monitoring, in 2022, the average border-crossing time on road corridors was 9.9 hours, while on railway corridors it was 40.6 hours. This confirms that the digitalization of documents, advance declaration, and risk-based control can produce an effect even without the immediate construction of new arterial routes.

The fourth barrier is financial constraints. Infrastructure projects require large capital investments and have long payback periods. A combination of budget funds, loans from international financial organizations, public-private partnerships, guarantees, project financing, and blended-finance mechanisms is needed. At the same time, each project must undergo an assessment of commercial viability, not only political attractiveness.

The fifth barrier is the lack of market information. Companies often do not know potential partners, market requirements, logistics tariffs, certification rules, or available financial instruments. This barrier can be reduced through digital trade platforms, business missions, sectoral catalogues, regular exhibitions, analytical reviews, and consulting centers under chambers of commerce and industry.

The sixth barrier is climate and resource-related risks. Mountainous areas, droughts, floods, changes in glacial runoff, and extreme weather events affect roads, energy, and agriculture. New corridors should be designed with climate resilience in mind, while energy projects should take into account the water balance and the seasonality of demand.

Practical priorities through 2030

9. The Termez Dialogue as an institutional foundation for cooperation

The Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia can become an important institutional platform for coordinating the interregional agenda. In 2025, the first dialogue was held in Termez, dedicated to the formation of a shared space of peace, friendship, and prosperity. The very choice of Termez emphasizes the city’s practical role as Uzbekistan’s southern hub and as a symbolic point of connection with Afghanistan and South Asia.

The effectiveness of such a format will depend on whether it can move from general statements to the management of a project-based agenda. For this purpose, it would be advisable to structure the dialogue around four permanent tracks: transport and logistics, trade and standards, energy and climate, and investment and human capital. Each track should have a project map, progress indicators, responsible participants, and a mechanism for annual updates.

The participation of business is of particular importance. States can sign framework documents, but real demand for corridors is generated by exporters, importers, carriers, banks, insurance companies, terminal operators, and manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, within the framework of the Termez Dialogue, business sessions, B2B platforms, sectoral presentations, and discussions of specific barriers faced by companies are necessary.

The expert track should serve as an evidence base. It can prepare an annual report on the state of connectivity between Central and South Asia, a corridor-readiness index, monitoring of transportation time and costs, a review of regulatory barriers, analysis of investment projects, and recommendations for governments. In this area, Uzbekistan’s analytical institutions can play a leading role.

The Termez Dialogue is also important as an instrument for involving Afghanistan in economic processes on a pragmatic basis. This is not a matter of political legitimization, but of reducing economic isolation, developing transit procedures, supporting sustainable livelihoods, and creating incentives for stability. This logic corresponds to the interests of all participants, since Afghanistan’s economic predictability directly affects the cost and security of interregional routes.

10. Connectivity and the Sustainable Development Goals

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is directly linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The development of energy networks supports SDG 7, the expansion of trade and employment corresponds to SDG 8, the construction of resilient infrastructure is linked to SDG 9, the reduction of spatial isolation contributes to SDG 10, climate resilience relates to SDG 13, and regional coordination and partnerships correspond to SDG 16 and SDG 17.

However, the link with the SDGs does not arise automatically. Infrastructure can promote development, but it can also deepen inequality if benefits accrue only to major actors while local communities bear the costs. Therefore, projects should include environmental assessment, social safeguards, consultations with the population, management of land-related issues, occupational safety measures, and transparent compensation mechanisms.

Special attention should be paid to women, youth, and small enterprises. New corridors create demand for services in logistics, trade, catering, repair, digital support, education, and tourism. If access to these opportunities is opened to local entrepreneurs, infrastructure will become a source of inclusive growth, not merely transit rent.

Climate risk is already becoming an economic factor. According to World Bank estimates, by 2030, nearly 90% of South Asia’s population may be exposed to intense heat, while more than one fifth of the population may face the risk of severe flooding. For Central Asia, the key constraint is water: in Uzbekistan, the volume of water withdrawal significantly exceeds internal renewable resources, and the current water deficit may increase to 7 billion m³ by 2030 and to 15 billion m³ by 2050^[9][10][11].

The climate dimension of connectivity is becoming increasingly important. South Asia and Central Asia are exposed to the risks of extreme weather events, glacier melt, droughts, floods, and tensions around water. Therefore, new roads, railways, power transmission lines, and logistics centers should be designed with long-term climate scenarios in mind. For the energy sector, this means combining electricity trade, energy efficiency, renewable sources, and grid resilience.

From the standpoint of sustainable development, the most promising model is not one of raw-material transit, but one of value-added creation. This implies agro-processing, industrial cooperation, service chains, digital trade, the localization of selected industries, and workforce training. In this case, connectivity is transformed from the movement of goods into a mechanism of structural modernization.

11. Conclusion

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is one of the key conditions for the sustainable development of the macroregion. It is capable of expanding sales markets, reducing transport isolation, strengthening energy security, supporting employment, and creating new incentives for regional stability. At the same time, the expected effect depends not on a single project, but on a coordinated package of measures.

The main practical conclusion is the need for a portfolio approach. The trans-Afghan railway, the route through Iran, road corridors, air connectivity, the CASA-1000 and TAPI energy projects, trade digitalization, logistics hubs, and investment platforms should be viewed as mutually complementary elements. Each of them has different implementation timelines, risks, and economic logic; therefore, the regional strategy should ensure redundancy and flexibility.

Uzbekistan has objective advantages for the role of a connector state. Its geography, demographic potential, industrial base, southern hub in Termez, and active foreign economic agenda make it possible to bring together the interests of Central and South Asia.

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform where political will is translated into project-level discipline. For this to happen, it should generate not only declarations, but also a list of projects, indicators, road maps, evaluation mechanisms, and permanent channels of interaction among business, experts, and government agencies.

In the long term, connectivity between Central and South Asia should be oriented not only toward increasing trade volumes, but also toward improving the quality of development. A sustainable macroregion will take shape where infrastructure is connected with institutions, energy with climate responsibility, trade with industrial cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives with evidence-based analysis and practical results.

Muhammad Babadjanov,

Head of Department

at The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies

under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan

[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration/trade

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=TJ-UZ-KZ-TM-KG

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/country/south-asia

[4] https://uzembassy.kz/en/article/the-mazar-i-sharif-kabul-peshawar-railway-will-open-up-broad-prospects-for-international-trade

[5] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/brief/updated-q-a-on-casa-1000-resumption-in-afghanistan

[6] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/11/01/additional-financing-for-casa-1000-project-for-the-kyrgyz-republic

[7] https://www.carecprogram.org/uploads/03-CAREC-Transport-Strategy-2030-Midterm-Review-Draft-Report.pdf

[8] https://cpmm.carecprogram.org/2022-report/key-results/

[9] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/03/climate-resilience-in-south-asia-will-be-private-sector-led

[10] https://data.worldbank.org/country/uzbekistan

[11] https://www.adb.org/news/features/numbers-climate-change-central-asia

Sadriddin Suyarov,

Journalist

A Tashkent evening in midsummer can resemble a vibrant Mediterranean metropolis transplanted into the heart of Central Asia.

On a summer terrace in the city center, young people move effortlessly between Uzbek and English while discussing a new fintech startup. A few kilometers away, their peers are presenting an exhibition where traditional Uzbek ikat textiles meet digital art.

This is more than a snapshot of modern Tashkent. It is the face of Uzbekistan in 2026, a country marking the 35th anniversary of its independence.

Three and a half decades may be a brief moment in history, but for Uzbekistan, the anniversary carries a particular meaning. More than 60 percent of the population is under 30. Those turning 35 today are, in a sense, the same age as the independent Uzbek state itself. They are known as the ‘Mustaqillik Generation’ - Generation of Independence.

They have no personal memory of shortages, the Iron Curtain or a centrally planned economy. Their worldview was shaped instead by global connectivity, increasingly open borders and sweeping reforms of the past decade. Today, this generation is increasingly taking the helm and helping define Uzbekistan’s future.

From Caravans to Code

For centuries, the Silk Road connected East and West through Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva and Shakhrisabz. Today, that historic exchange is taking on a new form.

Caravans have given way to fiber-optic networks, while technology hubs are emerging where caravanserais once stood. The most valuable resources of the new Silk Road are no longer silk and spices, but data, technology and human capital.

Over the past several years, Uzbekistan has made a significant leap in the IT sector, moving from a regional consumer of technology toward an exporter of digital services. At the center of this transformation is IT Park Uzbekistan, which has created an ecosystem for technology companies and helped connect them with international markets. Uzbek digital services are increasingly reaching clients in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the UAE, and beyond.

Behind these figures are individual stories. Young programmer and entrepreneur Ziyobek Turdiev, drawing on his experience in a U.S.-based logistics company specializing in vehicle transportation, founded TheCarGo, an AI-powered platform designed for American auto-transport brokers. Today, the company serves the US market and continues to expand.

His experience reflects a broader transformation: for a growing number of young Uzbeks, global markets can be reached from Tashkent itself.

This transformation has been supported by economic liberalization and a strong emphasis on education. Programs such as ‘One Million Uzbek Coders’ opening of branches of leading foreign universities and tax incentives for the IT sector have helped create an environment where entrepreneurship and innovation can flourish.

A New Diplomacy of Openness

Historic Silk Road prospered when trade routes were open and travelers could move freely between its cities. Uzbekistan’s recent transformation has increasingly revived this principle.

Introduction of visa-free travel for citizens of more than 90 countries has helped turn Uzbekistan from one of the region’s more difficult destinations to access into an increasingly attractive tourism and business hub.

But the change goes deeper than mobility. Over the past decade, constitutional reform, stronger protection of human rights, the ban on forced labor and a greater role for civil society have contributed to a broader transformation of Uzbekistan’s social and political landscape.

A younger generation of lawyers, diplomats, civil servants and entrepreneurs, many educated at universities in Europe, the United States and Asia, is bringing international experience into national practice.

Their growing engagement is also visible on the global stage. The 14th UNESCO Youth Forum, held in Samarkand in October 2025, brought together 145 young leaders from 135 UNESCO Member States and Associate Members. Held for the first time in Central Asia, the forum focused on climate action and its social impact on young people, while Uzbek participants contributed to discussions on climate and cultural heritage.

A More Connected Central Asia

This opening has also changed Uzbekistan’s role in Central Asia.

Rather than being defined by the rivalries of the past, the region is increasingly becoming a space for cooperation, connectivity and shared economic opportunity. Young entrepreneurs and activists from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are increasingly working together across borders, seeing Central Asia less as a geopolitical fault line and more as a shared home.

Recent youth initiatives illustrate this shift. The international ‘Eco-Zakovat’ intellectual tournament in Samarkand brought together around 150 young participants from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.

Eco-Camp 2026 in Tashkent Region brought together around 300 young environmental activists for discussions, competitions and practical initiatives focused on environmental protection.

For this generation, regional cooperation is becoming less a diplomatic slogan and more a natural way of thinking and acting.

Tradition Reimagined

‘Mustaqillik Generation’ is also redefining how Uzbekistan presents its cultural identity to the world.

Traditional textiles such as adras and khan-atlas, produced through the distinctive ikat technique, are being reimagined by young designers and combined with contemporary fashion. Uzbek patterns and craftsmanship are increasingly appearing in collections aimed at audiences in Paris, Milan, New York and other global cultural centers.

Young designers such as Nigora Hashimova and Marjona Sadinova illustrate this new creative confidence, bringing Uzbek-inspired designs to international platforms.

Country’s participation in the 2026 Venice Biennale, through its national pavilion The Aural Sea, offers another example. Bringing together Uzbek artists, young creatives and international collaborators, the pavilion explores the ecological transformation of the Aral Sea through contemporary art and storytelling.

Cultural revival is not simply about preserving the past. Traditional crafts, from Rishtan ceramics to Bukhara gold embroidery, are also supporting local communities, creating economic opportunities and sustaining environmentally responsible production.

For international audiences, this creates a different image of Uzbekistan: not a country frozen in its historical heritage, but a living cultural space where tradition and innovation coexist.

The Age of Conscious Maturity

For an individual, 35 can mark the transition from youthful ambition to greater maturity and a clearer understanding of one’s place in the world. For a state, meaning can be much the same.

As Uzbekistan marks 35 years of independence, its transformation is increasingly becoming more than a government-led process. It is being reinforced by a generation that has grown up with greater access to information, greater mobility and a stronger connection to the outside world.

This generation may ultimately prove to be the most important guarantee that Uzbekistan’s opening to the world will continue.

Modern Uzbekistan is therefore revealing itself in a new light. It is no longer simply viewed through the prism of its Soviet past or as an exotic destination along the old Silk Road. It is emerging as a dynamic, increasingly open and future-oriented state, with an expanding role in the economic and diplomatic architecture of Central Asia.

The great legacy of the Silk Road was never only about trade. At its heart was the movement of people, ideas, knowledge and cultures.

Today, a new generation of Uzbeks is carrying that legacy forward - not with caravans, but with technology, entrepreneurship, diplomacy and creativity.

As Uzbekistan celebrates the 35^th Anniversary of its Independence, it is not merely commemorating its past. It is writing a new chapter in its global story.

Over the past few years, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan have moved from strategic partnership to a fully fledged alliance. Two distinct dimensions now stand out in the way they engage with one another. On the one hand, the institutional foundation of their cooperation is firmly in place; on the other, its economic momentum is only beginning to build. In our view, the balance between the development of political and diplomatic machinery and the practical substance of economic cooperation is what will define the next chapter in Uzbek–Azerbaijani relations.

The institutional architecture

The framework of bilateral ties built by Tashkent and Baku rests largely on top-down coordination: the agenda is set at the level of the heads of state, while intergovernmental, ministerial and business mechanisms deliver it. It is President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan who set the principal vectors of cooperation and its tempo, and who appreciably shorten the time needed to sign off on individual decisions.

This has gradually produced an extensive system of engagement mechanisms. The Supreme Interstate Council was established in 2023 and held its first session in 2024; the same year saw the signing of the Treaty on Allied Relations. In July 2026, Tashkent hosted the fifteenth meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission. The Uzbek–Azerbaijani Business Council has been operating since 2020, three Forums of Regions have been convened, and eleven cities have entered into sister-city arrangements. In the past three years alone there have been more than twenty high-level inter-parliamentary contacts, and in 2025 Khiva hosted the first inter-parliamentary forum.

Contact of this density is normally found between neighboring countries, or between states whose mutual trade runs at far higher levels. For Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan – separated by the Caspian and still trading comparatively little – the degree of institutionalization achieved looks all the more striking.

The practical effect is to lower political and administrative barriers, shorten approval timelines and make it easier for companies to enter the partner’s market. Yet an institutional framework does not in itself generate trade flows or investment demand. It creates favorable conditions for business activity, but it is no substitute for the economic incentives on which the further momentum of cooperation depends.

The next stage, therefore, is likely to be defined less by adding to the number of existing formats than by their capacity to convert the political relationship already achieved into concrete economic results.

The economic dimension: a question of scale

Political dialogue between the two countries is still running well ahead of the underlying economic indicators, as the statistics make plain. Bilateral trade came to $307 million in 2025, an increase of roughly 15 percent. Uzbek exports grew by 8 percent to $227 million, while imports from Azerbaijan rose by 39 percent to $80 million. The Uzbek export basket widened by 116 product lines.

These figures take on a rather different meaning, however, when set against Uzbekistan’s total foreign trade turnover, which exceeded $81 billion in 2025^[1]. Azerbaijan accounted for less than 0.4 percent of it. That number should not be read as a verdict on the quality of the bilateral relationship. What it shows, rather, is how hard it is to translate political alignment into economic ties of real scale – a difficulty rooted in several objective structural constraints.

These include the absence of a shared border and the resulting need for multimodal shipping across the Caspian; a partial overlap in export baskets (textiles, fruit and vegetables, selected chemical products); and similar approaches to diversifying economic ties, which leave the two sides competing on third markets more often than complementing one another.

From this follows a thoroughly practical conclusion. Simply scaling up conventional trade is unlikely to bring the two countries to the $1 billion mark set by their presidents^[2]. Growth will have to be sought through investment and industrial cooperation, where trade flows arise from shared production chains.

Both countries appreciate how important it is to put such systematic work in place, and in recent years the center of gravity of the agenda has shifted noticeably from trade toward investment. The Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Investment Company (AUIC), created in 2023 with charter capital of $500 million, is already involved in fifteen projects worth some $360 million, according to Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade^[3]. The wider pipeline is considerably larger, taking in more than twenty projects worth around $6 billion, with a further twenty-five worth almost $1.5 billion in preparation^[4].

How far investment cooperation reaches beyond declared intentions is best judged from what is happening at specific production sites. The most visible example is the joint vehicle assembly operation run by Uzavtosanoat and Azermash at the Hajigabul industrial park, which has already turned out more than 11,000 Chevrolet cars and Isuzu buses^[5]. The project is now moving into its next phase: a full-cycle plant with investment of more than $84 million. Textile and sericulture clusters are developing in parallel, alongside agro-industrial and logistics projects.

The significance of such ventures is not measured by output alone. Their principal value lies in forging durable production links between the two countries.

Joint manufacturing generates steady demand for mutual deliveries of components, raw materials and equipment, which in effect embeds bilateral trade within a single production chain.

Ties of this kind tend to be less sensitive to swings in the market, since they rest not on one-off deals but on the long-term needs of production. Another consideration matters just as much. Localizing production in Azerbaijan, provided the relevant rules of origin are met, potentially opens the door to third-country markets with which Baku holds preferential trade arrangements.

In that sense, joint ventures can be seen not merely as a means of serving the two national markets, but as a possible platform for promoting products together beyond Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. That effect does not materialize automatically, however: it calls for dedicated work on the trade, customs and legal mechanisms involved.

What will shape further growth?

The institutional architecture now in place, together with the results already achieved in economic cooperation, creates considerable scope for taking the relationship further. Realizing that potential, though, will depend on the two sides’ ability to overcome a number of structural constraints.

Foremost among them are the competition between similar products on third markets noted above and the volatility of Caspian logistics, which reflects the condition of the ferry fleet and the seasonality of shipping. A further brake comes from the difficulty of making direct payments between the two countries’ banks and of insuring cargo, both of which add to the cost and duration of foreign trade transactions.

Against this backdrop, a natural question arises: what could accelerate the pace of cooperation?

One of the most practical steps would be mutual recognition of certificates and laboratory test results, above all for agricultural produce, which would cut both the time and the cost of bringing goods to the partner’s market.

In the financial sphere, there is a strong case for broadening correspondent banking relations and settlement in national currencies, by way of direct payments between banks and convenient currency conversion arrangements. This would reduce reliance on intermediaries and make settlement of trade and investment operations more predictable.

Transport deserves attention in its own right. Expanding the capacity of the Caspian routes, harmonizing tariffs and shipping schedules, and developing digital cargo tracking would all help lower costs for business.

Uzbek–Azerbaijani relations have thus reached the point at which the political capital accumulated over recent years is gradually acquiring economic and practical substance. In this sense it can be said with confidence that the two countries have laid a solid foundation for moving into new areas and deeper forms of allied partnership.

Miraziz Mirumarov, Leading Research Fellow,

Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Iroda Imamova, Leading Research Fellow,

Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

[1]https://stat.uz/ru/press-tsentr/novosti-goskomstata/66431-2025-jilda-zbekistonning-tash-i-savdo-ajlanmasi-81-mlrd-dollardan-oshdi-3

[2]https://president.uz/ru/lists/view/8287

[3]https://surl.li/rgudkn

[4]https://surl.li/wbqoju

[5]https://economiczones.gov.az/post/hsp-de-avtomobil-istehsali-artir-az