The contemporary system of international relations is being shaped by rapid geopolitical changes, growing fragmentation, disruptions in transport and supply chains, climate change, and increasing risks to food and energy security. Under these conditions, trust, dialogue and practical cooperation among states are becoming more important than ever. For Central and South Asia — two historically interconnected regions with significant yet not fully realized potential — connectivity has acquired not only economic, but also strategic, political and civilizational significance.

The initiative to strengthen connectivity between Central and South Asia, advanced by President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, represents a timely response to this historical and geopolitical demand. Its core idea is that security cannot be ensured solely through military or political instruments. It must also be built through economic development, transport corridors, trade links, education, culture and human capital. In this sense, development is not merely a consequence of security; rather, it is one of its fundamental preconditions.

This approach gained institutional form in July 2021, when Tashkent hosted the high-level international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities” at the initiative of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The forum created an important political and expert platform for advancing interregional cooperation. Its international recognition was further demonstrated in 2022, when the United Nations General Assembly adopted the resolution “Strengthening Connectivity between Central and South Asia.” Initiated by the President of Uzbekistan and supported by more than 40 states, the resolution confirmed that Uzbekistan’s vision has significance not only at the national or regional level, but also for the wider international community.

The Termez Dialogue is a practical continuation of this diplomatic and intellectual process. Launched in May 2025, it has emerged as a permanent platform aimed at creating a stable, systematic and practice-oriented environment for cooperation between Central and South Asia. Its first meeting attracted considerable attention from the international expert community due to its broad participation, multilateral format and applied focus. The growing interest in this initiative was also reflected in the organization of a separate session on the Termez Dialogue during the Doha Forum in December 2025.

The second meeting of the Termez Dialogue, scheduled for 4–6 June 2026 in Tashkent, Termez and Samarkand, is expected to mark a new stage in the development of this platform. The main emphasis will shift from general conceptual discussions to the identification of specific priorities and practical mechanisms. In other words, the Dialogue is intended not only to exchange views, but also to generate concrete outcomes in political dialogue, economic connectivity, transport and logistics, climate adaptation, and cultural-humanitarian cooperation.

One of the key features of the Termez Dialogue is that it reflects Uzbekistan’s proactive, pragmatic and open foreign policy. Uzbekistan does not position itself as a state forced to choose between competing blocs, but rather as a reliable platform for dialogue among different regions, markets and civilizations. In this regard, the Termez Dialogue forms part of a broader system of initiatives, including the Fergana Peace Forum, the Samarkand Climate Forum, the Samarkand Solidarity Initiative, and proposals within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on good-neighbourliness, trust and cross-border partnership.

Transport and logistics remain among the most important dimensions of connectivity between Central and South Asia. The countries of Central Asia are landlocked and therefore face structural limitations in accessing global markets. Diversifying transport routes, reducing logistics costs and facilitating access to external markets are essential for the region’s long-term economic development. According to available estimates, the level of transport connectivity of Central Asian states with external markets is around 60 per cent, while in the European Union and ASEAN countries it exceeds 95 per cent. In some cases, transport costs in Central Asia may reach up to 50 per cent of the final value of goods, which is several times higher than the global average.

In this context, the Trans-Afghan Corridor has strategic importance. It can provide Central Asian states with the shortest access to the ports of the Indian Ocean and link South Asia with the markets of Central Asia, Russia, China and Europe. This project is not limited to railway construction or transport infrastructure. It is also an instrument of regional economic integration, Afghanistan’s involvement in peaceful development processes, and the formation of a new trade architecture in Eurasia. Through this approach, Uzbekistan seeks to transform its geographical constraints into logistical advantages.

Afghanistan occupies a special place in this process. It is a natural land bridge connecting Central and South Asia. Uzbekistan’s policy toward Afghanistan is consistent and practical. Since 2021, Uzbekistan has sent 15 humanitarian convoys to Afghanistan, delivering more than 13,000 tons of humanitarian assistance. At the same time, bilateral trade and economic relations have been developing dynamically. In 2025, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan reached 1.7 billion US dollars, which is 55 per cent higher than the previous year. These figures demonstrate that Uzbekistan views Afghanistan not as a source of problems, but as an important participant in regional development and stability.

The choice of Termez as one of the central locations of this initiative is also highly symbolic. Historically, Termez has been a meeting point of trade, culture, science and religious traditions between Central and South Asia. The city played an important role in the history of Bactria, the Kushan Empire, the Great Silk Road and wider civilizational exchange. Today, Termez is becoming Uzbekistan’s southern gateway and a modern centre of practical cooperation with Afghanistan and South Asia.

There are concrete examples of this transformation. The Termez International Trade Centre, opened on 29 August 2024, covers 36 hectares and is located only 500 metres from the border with Afghanistan. A 15-day visa-free regime has been introduced within the centre. Its infrastructure includes more than 3,000 shops, customs facilities, banking services, public service centres and export-oriented platforms. The annual export potential of products represented in the trade zone is estimated at 1.2 billion US dollars. More than 1,000 local residents and about 140 Afghan citizens are employed there. This shows that connectivity is not an abstract political slogan, but a practical reality linked to jobs, exports, services and human livelihoods.

Another important example is the Termez Cargo Centre, an international transport and logistics hub operating since 2016. Located near the intersection of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, the centre has been used since 2021 by the United Nations World Food Programme and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees for delivering humanitarian cargo to Afghanistan. Thus, Termez is becoming not only a trade and logistics hub, but also an important point of humanitarian diplomacy.

The Educational Centre for Afghan Citizens, established in Termez in 2018, also reflects Uzbekistan’s long-term investment in human capital. The centre provides education for Afghan youth in 17 higher education fields and 16 vocational and secondary-specialized areas. Since its establishment, more than 800 Afghan citizens have studied there, including 200 girls and women. These figures demonstrate the importance of education and professional training in stabilizing Afghanistan. Peace is strengthened not only through political agreements, but also through an educated, skilled and socially active generation.

Another important dimension of the Termez Dialogue is climate and environmental sustainability. Central and South Asia are among the regions most affected by the consequences of climate change. Water scarcity, desertification, soil degradation, air pollution, glacier melting and natural disasters are not only national challenges, but also transboundary problems. Therefore, climate adaptation, rational use of water resources, early warning systems and the exchange of digital hydrological data should become integral components of cooperation between the two regions.

Uzbekistan is taking an active role in this field as well. The Samarkand Climate Forum, regional climate summits, the Green Agenda, the regional strategy for climate adaptation and environmental protection programmes are important steps in this direction. These initiatives show that Central Asia is no longer merely a region affected by environmental problems; it is increasingly becoming an active regional actor proposing practical solutions.

Cultural and humanitarian cooperation forms one of the deepest foundations of interregional connectivity. The peoples of Central and South Asia have been linked for centuries through shared history, trade routes, science, culture and spirituality. Today, the demographic potential of the two regions also creates major opportunities: more than 60 per cent of the population is under the age of 30. This opens broad prospects for cooperation in education, science, academic exchange, innovation and human capital development.

From this perspective, the Termez Dialogue is not only a meeting of diplomats and experts. It should also serve as a platform that opens new opportunities for young people, scholars, entrepreneurs, educational institutions, cultural actors and civil society representatives. Economic projects require trust, and trust requires closer ties, mutual understanding and cultural dialogue among peoples.

The planned visit to Samarkand also carries deep symbolic meaning. For centuries, Samarkand served as a centre of science, trade and diplomacy connecting East and West, Central and South Asia, the Middle East and Europe. The “Spirit of Samarkand” reflects openness, tolerance, dialogue and a commitment to shared development. In the diplomacy of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Samarkand has become a platform that connects Uzbekistan’s historical legacy with modern international initiatives.

In conclusion, the Termez Dialogue is not an ordinary international event aimed only at bringing Central and South Asia closer together. It is a strategic platform that reflects Uzbekistan’s new foreign policy thinking, regional responsibility and global initiative. Its foundation rests on three interconnected principles: trust through dialogue, cooperation through dialogue, and shared development through cooperation.

The international community is increasingly recognizing Uzbekistan’s efforts in this direction. The adoption of the UN General Assembly resolution, the support of more than 40 states, and the growing interest of international organizations, experts and regional partners in the Termez Dialogue clearly demonstrate this trend. Through this platform, Uzbekistan is building a new bridge of trust between Central and South Asia — a bridge strengthened by trade routes, railways, educational programmes, cultural ties and humanitarian initiatives.

Therefore, the Termez Dialogue should be viewed as an emerging architecture of interregional cooperation. It contributes to the formation of Central and South Asia not merely as neighbouring geographic spaces, but as a macro-region united by common interests, shared security and a common future. In this process, Uzbekistan acts as an initiator, organizer and reliable bridge between the two regions.

Sadullaev Qudrat Yusubbaevich
Chief Research Fellow of the Academy of Public Policy and Administration under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Doctor of Law (DSc)

In recent years, cooperation between Central Asia and Azerbaijan in the energy sector has entered an entirely new phase. This progress is primarily the result of the wise policies pursued by the countries’ leaders, based on mutual trust, friendship, and good-neighborly relations. Thanks to this strong political will, major energy initiatives that were once viewed only as future prospects have now moved into the implementation stage, becoming important projects serving Central Asia’s sustainable development and contributing to the global green transformation.

Today, Central Asia is no longer a field of competition in the energy sector; rather, it is increasingly becoming a space for cooperation based on mutual trust, shared interests, and the principles of sustainable development. This process is gaining practical significance thanks to the forward-looking policies, open dialogue, and constructive approach of the countries’ leaders.

Energy security, the rational use of water and energy resources, coordination of electricity systems, and the rapid development of renewable energy sources have become key priorities of regional cooperation. The emerging regional architecture is creating new opportunities not only for meeting domestic demand but also for participation in international energy markets.

The countries of Central Asia have established mechanisms for continuous dialogue in the fields of energy and water management. Regular working meetings among the ministries of energy and water resources of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan play an important role in ensuring the stable operation of electricity systems, the efficient use of water resources, the coordination of seasonal loads, and the uninterrupted supply of energy to households and industry.

Within this framework, the strategic partnership between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan occupies a special place. The national energy systems of the two countries are closely interconnected, and practical cooperation in coordinating electricity flows, maintaining capacity balances, and ensuring the reliable operation of the unified energy system continues to develop steadily. Regular dialogue at the level of heads of state has further strengthened this cooperation and transformed it into an important integration factor for the entire region.

The countries’ goals in the field of renewable energy are also closely aligned. In recent years, Uzbekistan has accelerated the development of green energy, implementing large-scale programs to build solar and wind power plants, energy storage systems, and modern electricity networks. Kazakhstan is likewise consistently advancing reforms aimed at developing a green economy and reducing carbon emissions. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with their substantial hydropower potential, make a significant contribution to regional energy security. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan is implementing important initiatives to modernize its energy infrastructure and expand electricity exports.

Today, the common objective of the Central Asian countries extends beyond the development of their national energy systems. The primary task is to establish a single regional energy space that is interconnected, competitive, environmentally sustainable, and open to external markets. In this context, Azerbaijan’s participation broadens the geographic scope of cooperation and creates a strategic corridor linking Central Asia with Europe.

The Green Corridor: A Strategic Bridge Linking
Central  Asia and Europe

The high level of political trust achieved among the Central Asian countries is now being translated into practice through major transnational energy projects. Among the most significant is the Green Corridor initiative, being implemented by Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan.

This project will elevate regional energy cooperation to an entirely new level by connecting Central Asia to the European energy system through the Caspian Sea. It will create opportunities to export environmentally friendly electricity generated in the region to international markets.

The strategic partnership agreement signed in Baku during COP29 in November 2024 provided a solid legal foundation for this initiative. Subsequently, cooperation among national electricity grid operators was established, and the Green Corridor Alliance LLC was created. Currently, the Italian company CESI is conducting the project’s feasibility study.

The Green Corridor is not merely an export route; it is a strategic platform for creating an integrated electricity market in Central Asia. The project will strengthen interconnections among national power systems, facilitate more efficient use of renewable energy resources, and create new opportunities for attracting investment.

This initiative is a practical expression of the strategic partnership between Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan and will help transform Central Asia into an important link in the global green energy value chain.

Kambarata HPP-1: A Project for Regional Energy Security

Another important example of energy integration in Central Asia is the construction of Kambarata HPP-1.

Thanks to the political support of the Presidents of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, as well as the coordinated efforts of the governments of the three countries, this project has finally moved from decades of discussion to practical implementation.

With a planned capacity of 1,880 MW, the hydropower plant is not merely a major energy facility. It will contribute to maintaining the water-energy balance in Central Asia, improving the reliability of electricity supply, managing seasonal demand more effectively, and ensuring the rational use of water resources in the context of climate change.

The project will also bring new investment, modern infrastructure, and thousands of jobs to the economies of the three participating countries. The involvement of the World Bank further confirms the project’s international significance and economic viability.

Central Asia: A New Global Hub for Green Energy

Today, the countries of Central Asia are demonstrating an entirely new model of development in the energy sector. Competition is being replaced by trusted cooperation, while rivalry over resources is giving way to integration based on shared interests.

Regular dialogue among Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan is helping to ensure the stable functioning of the unified energy system, coordinate water and energy resources, and improve mechanisms for mutual support in emergency situations.

At the same time, the large-scale reforms being implemented by Uzbekistan in the development of renewable energy have become an important driver of the region’s transition to a green economy. The rapid construction of solar and wind power plants, energy storage facilities, and modern electricity grids is significantly increasing Central Asia’s overall energy potential.

Today, the countries of the region are pursuing a long-term strategy aimed not only at meeting domestic energy demand but also at supplying environmentally friendly electricity to Europe and other international markets.

In conclusion, the strategic partnership in the energy sector between Central Asia and Azerbaijan is a practical result of the policies pursued by the countries’ leaders, which are based on mutual trust, friendship, and good-neighborly relations.

Major initiatives such as the Green Corridor and Kambarata HPP-1 clearly demonstrate that the countries of the region are capable of jointly addressing complex challenges. This cooperation not only strengthens energy security but also lays a solid foundation for transforming Central Asia into a strategic green energy hub connecting Europe and Asia.

Uzbekistan — is a country of irreversible, rapid reforms. One of the priorities of the development strategy of the New Uzbekistan is the policy of achieving gender equality in the country.

Under the "Uzbekistan-2030" development strategy, large-scale measures are being implemented to increase women's political, social and economic activity, protect mothers and children, promote gender equality and safeguard women's rights and interests.

Thanks to the political will of the leadership of Uzbekistan, the Gender Strategy of Uzbekistan until 2030 was developed, the laws “On guarantees of equal rights and opportunities for women and men”, “On protection from oppression and violence” were adopted, as well as legislative norms on mandatory gender expertise of all regulations and introduction of gender audit. Thus, a mechanism has been introduced to study the state of the gender approach in all government organizations and to develop measures to ensure equal rights and opportunities for women and men by the Federation of Trade Unions as public control. Liability for domestic violence has been strengthened. Over the past 5 years, more than 40 Presidential decrees and Resolutions have been adopted aimed at ensuring gender equality. Meanwhile, legislation for women is being improved and opportunities are expanding. In 2023, the Electoral Code of Uzbekistan established provisions that the number of women when nominated from political parties to representative bodies of power should be at least 40% of the total number of nominated candidates for deputies and in the proportional election system, nominate at least two women out of each five candidates for parliament. Since 2019, a Gender Commission on increasing the role of women in society, gender equality and family has been created in the Senate. The Committee for Women and Family Affairs was newly created, more than 9 thousand positions were established, up to mahallas, specifically dealing with issues of women and family throughout the country and at all levels, rehabilitation centers began to operate to provide assistance to women victims of violence.

Systemic measures taken at the initiative of the head of state, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in order to reduce poverty, establish “women’s notebooks”, reduce unemployment among women and support women’s entrepreneurship, preferential loans for women have yielded tangible results throughout the country. A number of restrictions on women’s occupation and choice of professions were lifted. Advisory councils on gender issues were created in all ministries and departments. As a result, the number of women in parliament reached 33%, in business their number doubled and reached 25%, in political parties 44%, in higher education 40%. In 2023 alone, more than 13,3 billion soums of loans were allocated for the implementation of over 279 thousand women’s business projects, and about 300 billion soums of subsidies were provided to almost 57 thousand women. Based on the “Women's Notebooks” system, the problems of 994 thousand women were solved, the state allocated 1 trillion 234 million soums for these purposes.

As a result of studying the situation of women in mahallas, targeted assistance was provided to more than 690 thousand families in need of social protection.

In 2024, it is planned to provide 8 thousand women and girls included in the “Youth Notebook” with subsidies to start their own business and purchase equipment, and 10 thousand with preferential loans. It is planned to launch a “Business Marathon” project for 50 thousand young women with the participation of qualified specialists to provide practical assistance in setting up a business.

In the field of education, great attention is also paid to gender equality. The country has taken a number of effective measures to protect women and girls; a gender approach is being introduced into curricula and teaching methods, as well as in STEM education, especially in rural areas. Currently, more than half of the 1 million 300 thousand students, i.e. 653 thousand, are girls. In the master's program, the share of girls is 60% of master's students. The state encourages and fully pays for the contracts of women and girls studying for a master's degree from the state budget. In 2023-24 1,914 girls from needy families were accepted to study at universities using additional government grants. 181,500 girls received preferential educational loans. At the expense of local budgets, the contract amount of more than 2 thousand students from families in need of social protection, orphans or students deprived of parental care was covered for 14 billion soums.

Improving the opportunities and conditions for the education of women and girls in the country gave impetus to an increase in interest in mastering modern knowledge and professions, for example, within the framework of the educational project “One Million Programmers”, 47% were girls. Creating favorable conditions for women in education gives real results in unlocking their potential. Over the past seven years, more than 5 thousand women have been awarded the academic titles of Doctors of Philosophy and Doctors of Science. More than 14 thousand women are conducting their research at universities in Uzbekistan.

Achieving gender equality — is a global task on the agenda of universal international organizations such as the UN and other regional structures. Uzbekistan is actively developing international cooperation in this area. As a party to the 1979 Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women and the 1995 Beijing Declaration of the Platform for Action, the country regularly submits national reports to the Committee and develops national action plans.

In recent years, great importance has been attached to cooperation in the field of gender equality with the countries of Central Asia. The Forums of Women Leaders of Central Asia and the Asian Women's Forum in 2024 were successfully held, where representatives of more than 40 countries and international organizations participated.

Lola Saidova, Doctor of Law, Professor,

Chief Researcher of the ISRS under the

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

The President of Uzbekistan has signed the Resolution “On measures to introduce a system of continuous improvement of knowledge of the population and civil servants in the fight against corruption”.

The legal and institutional framework for preventing and combating corruption has been improved in Uzbekistan in recent years. At the same time, there is a need to raise to a new level the system of developing an intolerant attitude towards corruption among the population and civil servants, immunizing them with ‘integrity vaccine’, as well as increasing knowledge and skills in the fight against corruption based on the requirements of the time.

In this regard, the President of Uzbekistan has signed the Resolution “On measures to introduce a system of continuous improvement of knowledge of the population and civil servants in the fight against corruption”.

The Resolution will introduce a system of continuous improvement of knowledge of the population and civil servants in combating corruption.

For this purpose, from January 1, 2025, the Virtual Anti-Corruption Academy electronic platform (Virtual Academy) will be launched.

The Anti-Corruption Agency and the Law Enforcement Academy are in charge in organization and conduct of educational activities at the Virtual Academy. The Agency forms a contingent of civil servants who are subject to training, in agreement with the Academy, approves the annual training schedule, and monitors the quality organization of the educational process. The Agency submits annually information on the activities of the Virtual Academy to the National Anti-Corruption Council.

The key is that any citizen will have the opportunity to voluntarily study at the Academy’s basic courses. In particular, educational programs of various formats will be developed for preschool and school children, students, entrepreneurs, and representatives of nongovernmental organizations, taking into account their age, level of development and field of activity.

Increasing knowledge and skills in combating corruption at the Academy is mandatory for all civil servants.

This, undoubtedly, is of great importance in increasing the legal consciousness and culture of the population and civil servants, creating legal immunity from corruption in society, and cultivating the integrity values in the younger generation.

Training at the Virtual Academy in basic courses is organized free of charge for all users, and advanced training in special courses is fee-based.

The Agency formulates recommended annual research topics in the field of anti-corruption for higher education institutions and research organizations. All higher education and research organizations will annually submit to the Agency the results of research they conducted in the area. The Academy will maintain an electronic database on achievements, domestic and foreign experience, scientific, methodological and practical developments and research work.

Based on the Resolution, a Road Map is approved to ensure the effective functioning and strengthening of the material and technical base of the Virtual Anti-Corruption Academy electronic platform.

According to it, the Virtual Anti-Corruption Academy electronic platform and its mobile app will be launched by January 1, 2025. Special programs and content organized in the Virtual Academy for pre-school and school children, and students will be developed by October 1, 2024.

As part of the Global Resource for Anti-Corruption Education and Youth Empowerment (GRACE) Initiative, measures will be taken to create high-quality animated films, video and audio materials intended for students.

The launch of the Virtual Academy will serve to accelerate the formation of an intolerant attitude towards corruption in society, as well as the introduction of a system of continuous improvement of the knowledge and skills of the population and civil servants in the fight against corruption.

Dunyo IA

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was given a presentation on measures to further develop the jewelry industry, support jewelry production and sales, and increase exports of finished products.

Our country has a huge potential for increasing production and export of jewelry.

As the head of state noted, only 6 percent of gold mined in the country is processed, and exports of its products amount to only 78 million dollars, so it is important to create jewelry zones with special conditions for entrepreneurs, to review the provision of raw materials, training of specialists, production chain and sales system.

In this regard, the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry have developed relevant proposals.

In particular, it is planned to improve the activity of the Uzbekzargarsanoati association, expand its powers and reorganize the management system.

In order to support manufacturers of the industry, it is proposed to apply the benefits provided for members of the Association "Uzbekzargarsanoati" to individual entrepreneurs - manufacturers of jewelry, who are members of the Association "Uzbekzargarsanoati".

The possibility of establishing a zero rate of customs duty and value added tax on equipment, packaging and marking materials that are not produced in Uzbekistan and used in the jewelry industry for the period up to October 1, 2026 is being studied.

The issues of creation of special jewelry centers including production, exhibition and trade areas were considered. Information was provided on the placement of pilot projects in Tashkent and Namangan region.

The issue of increasing the volume of jewelry exports was discussed. It was proposed to establish a zero rate of customs duty for export of jewelry made in our country to the United States of America under the GSP system.

The head of state instructed to finalize the presented measures and work out a program for the development of domestic jewelry production for the period up to 2027.

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia Antonella Bassani on September 30.

The sides discussed topical issues of further expansion of strategic cooperation with the World Bank Group and support of this leading international financial institution to the ongoing reform program in New Uzbekistan.

At the beginning of the meeting, Vice President Antonella Bassani conveyed to the head of our state sincere greetings and best wishes of World Bank President Ajay Bangui.

During the conversation, the current high level and fruitful nature of bilateral cooperation were noted with deep satisfaction.

In recent years, our country has become one of the largest partners of the Bank - the portfolio of projects has increased several times and now exceeds 12 billion dollars.

The World Bank is supporting the implementation of important reforms aimed at ensuring the sustainability of economic and social sectors. The Bank's regional office in Tashkent has been operating since July this year.

Such areas as poverty reduction, transformation of state-owned enterprises and banks, decarbonization, support for WTO accession and others have been identified as priorities for further expansion of the partnership.

Special attention was paid to the programs of urbanization and integrated development of regions, modernization of energy and irrigation infrastructure, support to the private sector.

There was also an exchange of views on the promotion of regional projects.

For decades, Afghanistan was perceived primarily as a source of instability, geopolitical rivalry and security threats. In recent years, however, the regional agenda surrounding Afghanistan has gradually been shifting. Increasingly, expert and diplomatic circles in the Central Asian states are discussing not only the question of security but also Afghanistan’s potential as a transport, energy and trade corridor capable of linking Central and South Asia.

In this context, the «Termez Dialogue»^[1] acquires particular significance as a platform symbolizing the transition from a policy of isolation to a pragmatic model of regional interaction. For Uzbekistan and its neighbors, the issue is no longer merely the stabilization of Afghanistan, but the formation of a new geoeconomic architecture for Eurasia.

From a Geopolitical Buffer to a Geoeconomic Bridge

Historically, Afghanistan lay at the crossroads of major trade routes connecting the East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, however, the country became a space of geopolitical confrontation among world powers rather than a territory of cooperation.

Today the situation is gradually changing under the influence of several factors at once. Firstly, global logistics is undergoing a profound transformation. Geopolitical tension, sanctions restrictions and crises affecting traditional transport routes are forcing states to seek new paths for trade and transit. Secondly, the Central Asian states are increasingly striving to diversify their foreign economic ties and reduce their dependence on a limited number of transport directions.

Against this backdrop, Afghanistan is acquiring new significance as the shortest overland route capable of providing the Central Asian states with access to the ports of the Indian Ocean through the territory of Pakistan.        Whereas the Afghan factor was once viewed primarily through the lens of threats, today growing attention is being paid to its transit potential.

Of particular importance in this regard is the project of the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor^[2]. Initially, the principal route was considered to be Termez – Mazar-i-Sharif – Kabul – Peshawar. However, by 2025 the states of the region moved^[3] to elaborating a new direction: Termez – Naibabad – Maidan Shahr – Logar – Kharlachi. This route implies access to the Pakistani railway network through the Kharlachi border crossing and is regarded as more realistic in terms of security, cost, and implementation timelines.

The realization of this project could substantially reshape^[4] the transport geography of the region. For the Central Asian states, this would mean: a reduction in cargo delivery times; a decrease in transport costs; access to the new markets of South Asia; an expansion of export opportunities; a strengthening of the region’s transit potential.

Especially important is the fact that this concerns access to the South Asian market, with a population of nearly two billion people. For the export-oriented economies of Central Asia, this opens up fundamentally new prospects.

Equally important are the energy projects passing through Afghanistan. Among them are CASA-1000 and the TAPI gas pipeline, both intended to facilitate electricity and natural gas supplies between Central and South Asia.

These processes reflect a broader transformation of regional politics: states increasingly view Afghanistan not only as a source of risk but also as an important element of the transport architecture of Eurasia. Priority is shifting more and more from politically symbolic objectives toward the pragmatic logic of transit, connectivity, and economic efficiency.

Termez — the Southern Gateway of Central Asia

A special role in shaping the new regional interaction is played by Termez - the southernmost city of Uzbekistan, which is gradually turning into an important logistical, diplomatic, and humanitarian center. Its significance is reinforced by its unique geographical position: the city lies in the immediate proximity of the Afghan border, connected to it by a bridge across the Amudarya river, across which hundreds of cargo trucks and substantial flows of humanitarian aid and commercial goods pass daily^[5].

In logistical terms, Termez relies on developed infrastructure, including an international transport and logistics hub and a rail connection with the Afghan city of Hairatan, through which millions of tons of cargo are transshipped each year. This corridor is considered one of the most stable and manageable routes of regional trade with Afghanistan.

An additional dimension of Termez’s role is formed by its humanitarian component: the city operates^[6] as a platform for coordinating international assistance to Afghanistan, where deliveries of food, medicine, and basic goods are regularly carried out with the participation of international organizations. In 2025, the hub was incorporated into the UNHCR Global Supply Network, through which humanitarian aid shipments worth more than $500 million are distributed annually^[7].

At the same time, through Termez, Uzbekistan is actively promoting the concept of regional connectivity, in which Afghanistan is viewed not as a peripheral zone of instability but as a transit bridge capable of linking the markets of Central and South Asia. In this context, Termez is becoming not merely a border town, but an infrastructural and politico-economic node of a new regional architecture founded on pragmatism, trade interdependence, and phased integration.

In this context, Uzbekistan has attempted to institutionalize this Forum. Thus, in 2025 the international forum “Termez Dialogue” was held in Termez, devoted to questions of peace, stability, and economic interaction with Afghanistan. It was attended by representatives of the Central and South Asian states, as well as international organizations, including UN structures. The forum became one of the first attempts to institutionalize the discussion of Afghanistan precisely as an economic partner of the region.

Earlier, in 2021, Uzbekistan initiated^[8] the international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities,” held in Tashkent. One of the central themes of the event was the role of Afghanistan as a transit link between the two macro-regions. The conference was attended by representatives of more than 40 states and international organizations, which underscored the global interest in the Uzbek initiative.

The Termez Dialogue as a New Model of Regionalism

Under present-day conditions, the “Termez Dialogue” acquires significance not only as a diplomatic platform but also as a symbol of a new model of regional interaction.

What is at issue is the formation of an approach in which the states of the region strive to build mechanisms of cooperation independently, proceeding above all from common economic interests and mutual infrastructural interdependence.

In this sense, Afghanistan is gradually becoming not an object of external administration but a potential participant in a new system of regional connectivity.

For Central Asia, the development of the southern direction means an expansion of strategic autonomy, a diversification of foreign economic routes, and a strengthening of its own agency in international relations.

It is precisely for this reason that the future of Afghanistan is increasingly viewed not only as a question of security but also as a question of regional integration, logistics and geoeconomics.

Conclusion

Today Afghanistan stands at a historical crossroads. The country may either remain a space of chronic instability or gradually be transformed into a vital transport and economic bridge between Central and South Asia.

To a large extent, the outcome will depend on the ability of the regional states to construct a long-term strategy of cooperation founded not only on questions of security but also on the development of infrastructure, trade, and mutual economic interest.

In this process, Termez is already becoming one of the key centers of the new Eurasian interaction - a space in which the transition from geopolitical rivalry to geoeconomic partnership is taking shape.

Aziza Mukhammedova

Research Fellow

Center for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies at the

Institute for Advanced International Studies

[1]  https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/21/central-asian-countries-push-for-regional-development-at-termez-dialogue

[2] https://pakistan.mfa.uz/ru/news/trans-afghan-corridor-a-new-bridge-connecting-central-asia-with-the-world-1

[3] https://kun.uz/en/news/2025/07/18/uzbekistan-afghanistan-and-pakistan-agree-to-develop-new-railway-corridor

[4] https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/uzbekistan-and-the-new-realities-of-trans-afghan-trade/

[5] https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-offers-to-act-as-hub-for-afghanistan-aid

[6] https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/uzbekistan-steps-support-neighbor-afghanistan-critical-humanitarian-juncture

[7] https://iica.uz/ru/news/2025/02/13/termiz-logistik-habi-bmtning-global-yetkazib-berish-tarmogiga-qoshildi

[8] https://www.uzembassy.uk/news/990

The Fifth Tashkent International Investment Forum will take place on June 16–19, 2026. This year’s theme – “Investment Resilience: New Frontiers, New Partnerships” – frames the agenda around a set of pressing questions: how to protect capital amid global uncertainty, what institutional mechanisms enhance investment resilience in frontier markets, and where the new partnership routes lie.

The forum’s context is set by macroeconomic results. According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025 and exceeded $147 billion – the fastest pace since 2021 and among the highest in the Europe and Central Asia region. Fitch Ratings and S&P Global upgraded the country’s sovereign rating from BB– to BB for the first time, while Moody’s revised its outlook to “positive.” International reserves, per the Central Bank, surpass $77 billion. Exports rose 24% to $33.8 billion. Foreign direct investment increased by 46.9%, with FDI accounting for 40.5% of total capital investment. For an economy that attracted only $4 billion in annual foreign investment in 2017, the surge to $42 billion by 2025 represents a fundamentally different scale of growth. This tenfold increase over eight years underscores a profound transformation in the nation's investment landscape.

The forum is scaling alongside the economy. Last year’s TIIF drew over 8,000 participants, including some 3,000 international delegates from 97 countries. Guests included Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, heads of government from all Central Asian states, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, and New Development Bank President Dilma Rousseff. The aggregate value of signed investment contracts and trade agreements reached $30.5 billion. Yet what best speaks to the platform’s maturity is not the number of signings but the conversion rate – the share of agreements that translate into operating assets is increasingly the metric that matters to returning investors.

The centrepiece of this year’s forum will be the Tashkent International Financial Centre (TIFC), established by presidential decree in March 2026. Behind the headline sits a specific institutional architecture: a special legal regime based on common-law principles, a dedicated financial services regulator, an arbitration centre (TIAC), and tax exemptions through 2076. TIFC is part of a global trend toward specialised financial hubs that offer international market participants a familiar legal environment and regulatory predictability. Its defining feature is integration within the country’s legal framework: the centre operates under a special legal regime rather than creating a separate jurisdiction, reducing regulatory fragmentation and simplifying engagement with the domestic economy. A panel session featuring leaders of major global financial centres and international investors operating in Uzbekistan will address the central question: what are the practical conditions under which TIFC can attract international market participants.

The TIIF 2026 programme is structured around four thematic pillars: investment resilience and capital protection mechanisms, financial infrastructure and capital market development, trade connectivity and logistics corridors, and energy transition and climate finance. Key sessions include a discussion of the regulatory framework for alternative investment funds (a legal basis for private equity and venture capital being adopted for the first time), a panel on the Middle Corridor and trans-Caspian logistics, a session on sovereign ratings across Central Asia, and a practitioner-led workshop on blended finance instruments in frontier markets. A dedicated arbitration and dispute resolution track features two panel sessions co-organised with the Tashkent International Arbitration Centre (TIAC), the British-Uzbek Legal Association (BrULA), and the British Embassy. Topics range from the institutional design of Uzbekistan’s arbitration ecosystem – including the innovative Dispute Avoidance Protocol (DAP) – to the country’s positioning within the global investment protection architecture: ISDS frameworks, bilateral investment treaty reform, and New York Convention enforcement.

The energy agenda warrants particular attention. Uzbekistan has set an ambitious target of raising the share of renewables in electricity generation to 54% by 2030. Currently, the country operates solar and wind facilities with a combined installed capacity exceeding 4 GW, with a project pipeline envisaging an additional 19 GW of green capacity. Alongside this, the public-private partnership mechanism continues to develop: as of early 2025, PPP agreements worth approximately $28 billion had been signed in the country. For investors, this represents a large, structured market with standardised PPA contracts and a clear entry mechanism – a subject that will be examined in detail during the forum’s energy panel.

TIIF 2026 retains its bilateral business forum format, reflecting the expanding geography of Uzbekistan’s economic partnerships. Confirmed platforms include business forums with the Republic of Korea, the United States, Croatia, Hungary, Turkey, and Albania, as well as a China–SCO countries investment dialogue; the lineup continues to grow as the event approaches. The plenary session featuring heads of state and government will set the tone for the business programme. Running in parallel is an exhibition of industrial and investment potential spanning approximately 6,000 sq m – in 2025, a comparable facility facilitated over 500 B2B and B2G meetings for 100 participating companies.

At the same time, the forum agenda implicitly flags unresolved challenges. The corporate governance session raises the question of transitioning from concentrated to dispersed ownership – a process without which the stock market will remain illiquid. The discussion of privatisation and state asset IPOs calls for a candid conversation about pacing and institutional quality. The responsible business conduct panel, anchored in OECD standards, recognises that tax incentives alone are insufficient for accessing institutional capital – what is needed is verifiable supply chain transparency and functioning National Contact Point mechanisms.

The business programme is complemented by networking formats: an FIC and EY business breakfast on digitalisation and AI, the annual SQB Investor Day, an ESG Award ceremony, and the European Business Evening. The informal component – an invitational tennis tournament, TIIF Open, and an evening run – is designed for delegates who prefer to build relationships beyond the conference hall. The anniversary evening concludes with a collaboration with the Stihia electronic music festival – a detail that captures the tone in which Uzbekistan presents itself to an international audience.

For Uzbekistan, TIIF has long ceased to be a showcase. It is a working instrument of investment policy, whose effectiveness is measured not by the number of signing ceremonies but by the volume of capital that actually enters the economy between forums. The fifth, anniversary edition takes place at a moment when the country is simultaneously launching an international financial centre, adopting an alternative investment funds law, and receiving a sovereign rating upgrade – a convergence that creates a window of opportunity for investors prepared to operate in frontier markets with a growing institutional base.

In January, growth in the business climate was mainly driven by an outpacing increase in the expectations component. The agricultural sector and services became the key drivers of business confidence.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of its business climate analysis based on monthly surveys of entrepreneurs across the republic. Based on the collected data, a composite Business Climate Indicator was formed, reflecting both current assessments of business conditions and expectations for the next 3 months.

Dynamics of Uzbekistan’s Composite Business Climate

In January of the current year, Uzbekistan’s composite Business Climate Index stood at 64 points (on a scale from −100 to +100), which is 23% higher than the level of 2025.

The improvement in the business climate was primarily driven by stronger assessments of the current business situation, which increased by 28%.

An additional contribution came from improved optimism regarding short-term business prospects. In particular, business expectations rose by 20%.

According to the survey, 22% of enterprises increased their number of employees. At the same time, 71% of respondents expect demand for their products to grow over the next three months, compared to about 60% in the same period last year.

The share of enterprises forecasting an increase in employment in the coming quarter rose to 65%, up from 58% a year earlier.

Sectoral Dynamics of the Business Climate Index

In sectoral terms, an improvement in the business climate compared to last year was observed in construction, agriculture, and services.

In agriculture, the Business Climate Index increased by 62% year-on-year and reached 77 points, compared to 48 points in January 2025.

Growth was mainly supported by a significant improvement in assessments of current conditions and more favorable expectations. The current situation indicator in the sector increased 2.7 times from 27 to 72 points, while expectations grew by 17% to reach 82 points.

44% of entrepreneurs assessed the condition of their business in the sector as “good,” compared to 39% a year earlier. Growth in demand for products over the past three months was reported by 46% of enterprises versus 39% in January last year. Expectations for further demand growth in the near term remain high at 71%, compared to 68% a year earlier.

In the services sector, the business climate increased by 25% compared to January last year, reaching 65 points versus 52 points a year earlier.

Growth was driven by a gradual improvement in current business conditions. Current assessments in services rose by 18% to 52 points. At the same time, a more pronounced increase was observed in the expectations component, which grew by 32% to 79 points, indicating a substantial strengthening of companies’ confidence in short-term prospects.

70% of entrepreneurs expect demand for their services to grow over the next three months, compared to 58% in January 2025. The share of enterprises expecting to increase employment in the coming quarter amounted to 61%, up from 54% a year earlier.

In the construction sector, the business climate increased by 13% to 61 points, compared to 54 points a year earlier. The current situation indicator improved by 43% to 57 points. Expectations were formed at the level of 66 points, showing a decline of 4%.

38% of respondents reported that business conditions in construction had improved over the past three months, compared to 35% a year earlier. The share of enterprises reporting workforce growth rose to 38% from 22% a year earlier. Expectations of demand growth over the next three months were expressed by 77% of entrepreneurs, compared to 61% in January last year.

In industry, the business climate slightly declined by 5% compared to last year, while remaining at a sufficiently high level of 54 points.

At the same time, optimism among industrial enterprises remains steadily high. In January, expectations increased by 10%, reaching 78 points, indicating a continued positive outlook regarding development prospects.

According to the survey, the share of respondents reporting an improvement in business conditions over the past three months reached 32%, compared to 30% a year earlier. Demand growth over the same period was noted by 38% of industrial enterprises versus 36% in January last year. Meanwhile, employment expansion plans strengthened — 69% of entrepreneurs expect to increase their workforce in the next three months, compared to 62% a year earlier.

Barriers to Entrepreneurial Activity

According to the survey, more than half (57%) of entrepreneurs see no barriers in their activities. Among the problems cited, the most frequent are taxation (11%), utilities (9%), and access to credit (8%).

CERR Sector for the Study of Sectoral Competitiveness and Investment Activity

Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (441)

CERR Public Relations and Media Sector

Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (417)

According to the survey results, entrepreneurs are increasingly reporting higher demand, employment growth, and an overall improvement in business conditions.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of its business climate analysis based on monthly surveys of entrepreneurs across the country.

Based on the collected data, a composite Business Climate Index has been developed, reflecting both current business conditions and expectations for the next three months.

Business Climate Dynamics in Uzbekistan

As of February 2026, the composite Business Climate Index reached 65 points (on a scale from −100 to +100), which is 11 points higher than in the same period last year.

The improvement in the business climate was primarily driven by rising business expectations, which increased by 13 points to 81. Additional support came from improved assessments of current business conditions, which rose by 10 points to 51.

The survey indicates positive trends across key business activity indicators. The share of entrepreneurs assessing the current business situation as “good” increased to 44%, compared to 38% in February of the previous year.

The proportion of enterprises that increased their workforce rose to 19%, up from 12% a year earlier. Meanwhile, 34% of respondents reported an improvement in business conditions over the past three months, compared to 28% last year.

In addition, 39% of respondents reported increased demand for their products, up from 22% in the same period last year.

Sectoral Dynamics of the Business Climate Index

In a sectoral breakdown, improvements in the business climate were observed across all major sectors of the economy compared to the previous year.

The most significant improvement was recorded in agriculture, where the index increased by 29 points to reach 73. This growth was driven by both improved current conditions and a substantial rise in expectations.

The share of entrepreneurs assessing conditions as “good” rose to 56%, compared to 41% a year earlier. Meanwhile, 52% reported increased demand (35% previously), and 49% noted an improvement in the business environment over the past three months (32% previously).

In the services sector, the business climate index increased by 8 points to 61. While assessments of current conditions remained relatively stable, expectations improved.

Entrepreneurs maintain strong expectations regarding demand in the coming three months, with 72% reporting anticipated growth, close to last year’s level (71%). At the same time, employment has been gradually increasing, with the share of firms expanding their workforce rising to 16%, compared to 12% previously.

In the construction sector, the business climate index rose by 8 points to 69. Improvements were observed in both current assessments and expectations. Entrepreneurs are increasingly reporting higher employment and demand, reflecting stable sectoral dynamics.

The share of respondents reporting improved business conditions over the past three months increased to 34%, compared to 26% a year earlier. Meanwhile, 27% reported workforce expansion (15% previously), and 80% expect demand to increase in the next three months, up from 77% last year.

In industry, business climate growth was more moderate, increasing by 2 points to 67. At the same time, business expectations remain high, with continued growth in demand and gradual employment expansion.

Over the past three months, 32% of entrepreneurs reported increased demand, compared to 29% a year earlier. Workforce expansion was noted by 22% (13% previously), while 77% expect further demand growth in the next three months, also exceeding last year’s level.

Barriers to Business Activity

According to the survey, 61% of entrepreneurs reported no constraints in their operations, up from 57% in the previous month, indicating an overall improvement in the business environment.

Compared to the previous month, the share of respondents reporting difficulties related to access to credit, electricity supply, transport, and logistics has declined. At the same time, there has been a moderate increase in concerns related to access to land resources, utility costs, and tax rates.

CERR Sector for Competitiveness and Investment Activity Analysis

Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (441)

CERR Public Relations and Media Sector

Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (417)

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was reported the current work and plans for 2025 in automotive industry.

The share of automotive industry in the country's industry is 10 percent. Over the past ten months, 338 thousand passenger cars were produced. Components of 1.4 thousand types were localized. Thanks to economic measures, the cost price in the industry decreased by 4 percent. Exports amounted to $455 million.

The chairman of “Uzautosanoat” JSC presented information on plans and future tasks.

Next year it’s planned to manufacture 450 thousand cars and elevate exports to $700 million. It’s planned to strengthen cooperation with regional enterprises and boost localization. In particular, 63 projects worth $325 million on developing production of 700 components will be implemented. 

As is known, together with “BYD” company an automotive plant was built in Jizzakh. Currently such automobiles as Chazor and Song Plus Champion are produced there. In the upcoming years the model range is planned to be expanded. At the second stage worth $300 million it’s planned to expand the share of electric cars’ production to 200 thousand per year, at the third – to 500 thousand.

The Head of our state instructed to consistently master the production of components and spare parts for electric cars in agreement with the Chinese partners. 

The task was set to form orders for local enterprises based on cooperation.