The text of the article is in Uzbek.

Today's events and developments in the international arena once again demonstrate the growing need for the states of the Central and South Asian regions to achieve mutual understanding, solidarity, and a common goal. In this regard, the main goal of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia, held on May 19, 2025, on the theme "Building a Common Space of Peace, Friendship, and Prosperity," was to strengthen regional connectivity and bring cooperation to a new level. It can be said that over the past year, significant results have been achieved on the topical issues discussed during the dialogue. The next Termez Dialogue is also aimed at discussing topical issues such as strengthening cooperation between Central and South Asia, deepening interregional ties and ensuring economic growth, as well as further improving security and sustainable development.

Cultural relations. It should be noted that today the city of Termez has become an important center for ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan and restoring its economy. It is noteworthy that in the past, Termez was a center of intercultural and religious dialogue, where Zoroastrianism, Buddhism, Christianity, and Islamic traditions emerged and developed. Eldor Aripov, Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, noted that the city, located between the Greco-Bactrian, Kushan, and other ancient states, flourished during the Timurid era and became a major center of trade, craftsmanship, and science[1]. Indeed, if we look at our history, the countries of Central Asia and the South Asian region have always developed harmoniously as a single space, closely cooperating in all areas. The works of the great thinker Abu Rayhan Beruni "India," Zahiriddin Muhammad Babur "Baburnama" and other historical sources are clear evidence of these close ties. Furthermore, the following remarks by Muhammad Sobir Turkestani, Deputy Ambassador of Afghanistan to Uzbekistan, deserve attention: "Both Uzbekistan and Afghanistan are located on the land between two rivers, which was once called Mawarannahr." There are many similarities in our cultures.  The cultural heritage of Alisher Navoi is the wealth of the peoples of Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The remains of our ancestor Alisher Navoi are in the Herat region. All the minarets built in Herat during the reign of Sultan Husayn Bayqara stand as a single complex. Zahiriddin Muhammad Babur was buried in Kabul. In a complex called Babur's Garden. There are also large cultural museums in Afghanistan. Our antiquities are kept in our museums in Kabul, Herat, and Mazar-i-Sharif.[2]" Undoubtedly, the main goal of our efforts today is to restore these historical ties, further strengthen the bonds of friendship and brotherhood between our peoples, and ultimately raise the development of our countries to a new level. To this end, Uzbekistan has been increasingly developing ties with South Asian countries in recent years.

It should be noted that the education sector in Afghanistan has experienced a deep decline due to the long-standing unstable situation. In such a situation, it should be noted that assisting the Afghan people in obtaining education and training personnel with modern knowledge and skills is one of the most rational ways to lead Afghanistan out of the crisis. In this regard, in accordance with the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated November 13, 2017, "On organizing the activities of the Educational Center for Training Afghan Citizens under the Ministry of Higher and Secondary Specialized Education of the Republic of Uzbekistan," an Educational Center for Training Afghan Citizens operates in the city of Termez, Surkhandarya region. During the 2018-2019 academic year, 96 students studied at the Center in the "Uzbek Language and Literature" direction, all of whom received a bachelor's degree from the Alisher Navoi Tashkent State University of Uzbek Language and Literature.

Economic relations. It should be noted that the impossibility of achieving any positive results with weapons and troops in establishing peace and stability on Afghan soil was once again confirmed by the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021. From this perspective, today Uzbekistan's economic ties with Afghanistan serve as one of the important factors in establishing peace and economic recovery in the country.

According to estimates by the Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan, mutual trade turnover amounted to $653 million in 2021, $688.8 million in 2022, $784.1 million in 2023, and $999.9 million in January-November 2024[3]. Over the past five years, trade turnover has increased 2.5 times, reaching $1.68 billion in 2025, while Uzbekistan's exports amounted to approximately $1.5 billion. The parties set a new medium-term goal to increase the volume of trade to $5 billion. Therefore, today Uzbekistan is becoming one of the key investors in Afghanistan. Specifically, according to a $1 billion agreement signed between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, Uzbekistan will participate in the development of the Tuti Maidan gas field in the Jauzjan and Faryab regions for 10 years. The Termez International Trade Center, established in the Surkhandarya region, plays a very important role in implementing such trade and economic instruments. This shopping center is the first trade zone in Central Asia serving various entrepreneurs, especially Afghan entrepreneurs, who cooperate with Afghanistan. The shopping center features permanent exhibitions and fairs, an Uzbek-Afghan business school, a medical clinic for the treatment and provision of medical care to patients who are citizens of Afghanistan, a hotel, enterprises specializing in the production of precious metal jewelry, a multi-currency system, and other conditions that allow entrepreneurs to trade freely.

According to analytical data, 60% of Uzbekistan's total international traffic passes through the transit routes of Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. Uzbekistan's access to seaports through Afghanistan is 2-3 times shorter than the ports with access to the Black and Baltic Seas, and 5 times shorter than the route to Pacific ports[4]. According to economic analysts, the cost of delivering one container from Central Asia to South Asia through Afghanistan to seaports will decrease from $900 to $286. In addition, transportation time will be reduced from 35 days to 3-5 days. At the same time, export potential will also increase sharply. Improving transport and infrastructure communications and attracting international transit carriers to Central Asia is one of the most important tasks uniting the countries of the region. Its resolution is determined by the need to improve the socio-economic situation in the region.

In conclusion, it should be noted that this prestigious international conference will contribute to the further expansion of ties between our regions, the opening of new horizons for cooperation, and our confident progress on the path of peace and development.

Furthermore, the Termez Dialogue, as a platform for strengthening interregional connectivity and restoring common historical, cultural, and civilizational ties, opens opportunities for the development of new international transport and logistics corridors through Afghanistan. In the current difficult conditions of growing mutual trust and conflict of interests, such a format of cooperation as the Termez Dialogue is of great importance.

[1] Eldor Aripov: "Termiz muloqoti Markaziy va Janubiy Osiyo o‘rtasidagi o‘zaro bog‘liqlikni mustahkamlashda muhim ahamiyatga ega". (21.05.2025), https://daryo.uz/2025/05/21/eldor-aripov-termiz-muloqoti-markaziy-va-janubiy-osiyo-ortasidagi-ozaro-bogliqlikni-mustahkamlashda-muhim-ahamiyatga-ega

[2] Afg‘onistonda O‘zbekistonga aloqador madaniy boyliklar kam emas. (07.11.2023). https://xabar.uz/uz/madaniyat/afgonistonda-ozbekistonga-aloqador-madaniy-boyliklar-kam-emas

[3] O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Tashqi savdo aylanmasi. 2024-yil yanvar-noyabr oylari uchun dastlabki ma’lumot // O‘zbekiston Respublikasi huzuridagi Statistika agentligi. – B.4.

[4] Akmalov Sh. O‘zbekiston va Afg‘oniston: o‘tmishdan hozirgacha. Monografiya. – T.: “Zamon poligraf”, 2023. – B. 70.

An analysis of nighttime satellite illumination data indicates a strengthening of economic activity across regions and an expansion in the number of territories exhibiting urban-type development.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) applied satellite-based nighttime lights (NTL) data to assess economic activity at the level of regions and cities in Uzbekistan.

The analysis shows that higher light intensity corresponds to higher levels of economic activity and more advanced urban infrastructure.

CERR’s findings demonstrate a high degree of consistency between satellite-based indicators and official statistics. In particular, according to estimates based on NASA nighttime lights data, nominal GDP per capita in Uzbekistan grew by 80.3% in 2020–2025, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 15.8%, increasing from $2,090 to $3,887 over five years.

For comparison, according to official statistics, GDP per capita increased by 81.8% over the same period, with an average annual growth rate of 16.1%, rising from $2,048 to $3,881.

Economic Activity in Large and Medium-Sized Cities

According to the data, over the past five years the highest growth in gross regional product (GRP) per capita among regions was recorded in the city of Tashkent, where the indicator increased by approximately $5,000, reaching $9.3 thousand by the end of 2025 (according to official statistics — $9.2 thousand).

Estimates for 2025 also show high GRP per capita levels in a number of large and medium-sized cities. In Navoi, the NTL-based estimate reached $9.3 thousand, in Zarafshan $7.9 thousand, in Samarkand $7.2 thousand, in Kokand and Andijan $6.7 thousand each, and in Akhangaran, Yangiyul, and Bukhara ranged from $5.8 thousand to $5.2 thousand, respectively.

Relatively high growth rates of GRP per capita were also observed across several regions. In Tashkent region, the indicator increased by $1.8 thousand to reach around $4 thousand. In Navoi region, GRP per capita also grew by $1.8 thousand to approximately $4 thousand. In Fergana and Syrdarya regions, the increase amounted to $1.6 thousand, reaching about $3.5 thousand and $3.4 thousand, respectively.

Economic Activity in Small and Medium-Sized Cities

Relatively high GRP per capita levels were also recorded in a number of small and medium-sized cities. In Termez, the indicator reached $5.1 thousand, in Margilan and Chirchik around $5 thousand, and in Namangan $4.8 thousand. Economic activity levels also remain relatively high in the cities of Kagan and Urgench.

Economic Activity at the District Level

At the district level, the highest GRP per capita growth dynamics in 2020–2025 were observed in Mirabad district, where the indicator increased by $7.1 thousand, in Yakkasaray district by $6.3 thousand, and in Chilanzar district by $5.6 thousand. As a result, GRP per capita in these districts exceeded $10 thousand, which is nearly three times higher than the average across other districts and cities in the country.

Among districts, the highest growth rates of economic activity were also recorded in Karmana district (2.5-fold increase), Yashnabad and Bektemir districts (2.4-fold), as well as Sergeli, Yangi Hayot, and Mirzo Ulugbek districts (2.3-fold).

Expansion of Territories with High Economic Activity

The use of nighttime lights data also made it possible to assess urbanization processes at the district level. In particular, between 2020 and 2025, the number of territories with high nighttime light intensity (NTL above 10), characteristic of urban agglomerations, increased from 22 to 31. The average GRP per capita in these territories rose from $3.8 thousand to $7 thousand.

At the same time, over five years the number of districts with low nighttime light intensity (NTL below 1) declined from 129 to 85, confirming the transition of 44 districts toward an urban-type development model.

In these districts, NTL levels increased on average by more than 2.5 times, while GRP per capita rose from $1.7 thousand to $3.2 thousand.

Conclusion

The results confirm that satellite-based nighttime lights data can effectively complement official statistics and be used for timely assessment of regional economic activity.

This approach enables the identification of new growth points and allows for more targeted allocation of state support toward infrastructure development and investment activity in the regions.

Abdulaziz Gaybullayev, CERR

CERR Public Relations Sector

Tel.: (+998) 78 150-32-20 (417)

The analysis covers the key thematic and semantic emphases of the President’s speech, the structure of core concepts and their interrelations, priority directions of state policy, as well as the strategic benchmarks for the country’s socio-economic development in 2026.

On 26 December 2025, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev delivered his Address to the Oliy Majlis and the people of Uzbekistan. Experts of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) conducted a linguistic content analysis of the President’s speech.

The analysis was carried out using modern linguistic methods and is aimed at identifying semantic priorities, key concepts and their connections. A word cloud and diagrams were also prepared to visually demonstrate the priority directions of state policy.

Analysis (from the original language)

In total, the President used 9,135 words in his Address. The creation of a word cloud made it possible to visualize the most significant themes and gain a deeper understanding of the priorities and directions of the country’s socio-economic development.

Figure 1. Most frequently used words in the President’s Address (26.12.2025)

The linguistic analysis showed that the most frequently used key words included “mahalla” – 49 times, “aholi” (population) – 35 times, “iqtisodiyot” (economy) – 28 times, “bozor” (market) – 26 times, “loyiha” (project) – 25 times, and “technology” – 22 times (Fig. 1).

Words such as “ta’lim” (education), “natija” (result) and “daromad” (income) were each used 20 times; “tadbirkor” (entrepreneur) and “sanoat” (industry) – 19 times each; “suv” (water) – 18 times; “elektr” (electricity) and “hudud” (territory) – 17 times each; “yoshlar” (youth), “infratuzilma” (infrastructure) and “qurilish” (construction) – 16 times each.

The analysis of two-word expressions showed that the phrase “Markaziy Osiyo” (Central Asia) was used eight times; “aholi daromadi” (household income), “qishloq xo‘jaligi” (agriculture) and “yangi bosqich” (new stage) – seven times; “yangi texnologiyalar” (new technologies) and “Toshkent shahri” (city of Tashkent) – six times each. Expressions such as “Davlat xizmatlari” (public services), “xorijiy investitsiya” (foreign investment) and “yangi tizim” (new system) were used five times, while “dual ta’lim” (dual education), “ish o‘rni” (jobs), “viloyat markazlari” (regional centers) and “tuman byudjeti” (district budgets) were used four times each.
Among three-word combinations, the most frequent expressions included “the next five years” – nine times; “based on dual education” – four times; and “water-saving technologies” and “water, electricity” – three times each.

Thus, the analysis shows that at the core of state policy are the mahalla, public welfare, and the transition to a new stage of development based on economic and technological transformation, with clearly defined strategic objectives for the next five years.

Thematic structure of the speech

The diagram below shows the distribution of the speech’s vocabulary by key directions, where the content is grouped into nine main thematic blocks.
The diagram clearly demonstrates that technological development and human interests, implemented at the level of the mahalla, are at the center of state policy. The ultimate goal of all reforms is to ensure public welfare through sustainable economic growth (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Distribution of words by thematic areas in the structure of the speech

Interconnection of development directions

The analysis highlights key words that demonstrate the interconnection between various directions of Uzbekistan’s state policy in the coming years.
The transition of the economy to a technological and innovation-based growth model is a central element of state policy and implies a shift away from a raw-materials model toward high-tech industry. This direction is closely linked with such concepts as “investment,” “technology,” “market,” and “product.”

The block on economic growth and welfare reflects the key outcomes of reforms, including the increase of the economy to $145 bn and a twofold reduction in poverty over the past three years. It is directly associated with the concepts of “population,” “economy,” “mahalla,” and “services.”

The social foundation of reforms is built through the development of the mahalla and social solidarity. This direction is associated with “mahalla,” “youth,” “society,” and “values.”

Structuring vocabulary by thematic areas shows that the core of the President’s speech is technological modernization of the economy and a human-centered governance model based on the “mahallabay” system.

It emphasizes the interconnection between economic growth, improvement of public welfare and the development of local infrastructure, as well as priorities such as strengthening human capital, expanding employment and increasing the efficiency of public administration.

Figure 3. Interconnection of development directions

Among the highlighted semantic blocks are also tasks related to stimulating domestic demand, developing the housing and tourism sectors, modernizing the transport system, increasing productivity in agriculture and introducing water-saving technologies.

Special emphasis is placed on the “green” agenda, including the development of renewable energy, expansion of the “Yashil Makon” (“Green Space”) initiative, and strengthening resilience to climate risks.

In the foreign policy dimension, the analysis highlights Uzbekistan’s openness, strengthening of good-neighborly relations, and integration into the global economic system.

The linguistic analysis confirms that the idea at the core of the President’s speech is built around the triad “inson qadri – mahalla – farovonlik” (human dignity – mahalla – welfare), where the goal of reforms is sustainable growth, improved quality of life, and the further strengthening of Uzbekistan’s position.

Ilyos Rabbimov, CERR

CERR Public Relations Service

For inquiries, please contact:

(78) 150 02 02 (417)

On 24 October 2025, Uzbekistan and the European Union signed the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) — a comprehensive framework that culminates negotiations launched in February 2019 and initialled in July 2022. More than a ceremonial milestone, the EPCA codifies a strategic upgrade in our relationship with the EU. It is broad in scope — nine titles, 356 articles, and 14 annexes — and practical in ambition: to align our cooperation with the realities of a rapidly changing world economy while reinforcing the rule-of-law foundations of sustainable development at home.

The agreement’s timing is revealing. Uzbekistan’s recent balanced, multi-vector foreign policy and people-centred reforms — strengthening the rule of law, expanding public administration openness, and advancing market reforms — have laid the necessary groundwork. These steps in human rights and governance have increased international confidence, enabling a rules-based partnership with Europe. The EPCA is both a vote of confidence in Uzbekistan’s reform trajectory and a tangible roadmap to deliver measurable outcomes.

Economically, the EPCA offers a clear pathway for integration and growth. It promotes approximation to EU norms on technical regulations, product safety, and sanitary and phytosanitary measures. The agreement is designed to reduce non-tariff barriers, simplify border procedures, and make our exporters more competitive in the EU market. It encourages joint ventures and industrial clustering, extends agro-processing and manufacturing value chains, and supports energy efficiency and industrial modernisation. In short: more trade, more investment, and more quality jobs at home.

Human capital is an equally central pillar. The EPCA expands cooperation across education, science, skills development, and public health. It encourages joint university programmes, faculty and student exchanges, and research grants — mechanisms that accelerate knowledge transfer and help align our skills base with the demands of a digital and green economy. The spillovers are immediate and tangible: better public services, higher productivity, and new career pathways for our young people.

The rule-of-law dimension is another strategic gain. Deeper cooperation on judicial reform, anti-corruption, data protection, and cybersecurity increases predictability for investors and protections for citizens. The agreement’s chapter on foreign and security policy expands dialogue on conflict prevention, crisis management, non-proliferation, and export controls. This cooperation supports regional stability, which is essential for long-term growth.

Connectivity is the backbone that makes these ambitions feasible. Through synergies with the EU’s Global Gateway initiative and the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, the EPCA supports logistics hubs, border modernisation, and greener infrastructure. Better connectivity means lower trade costs, faster delivery times, and diversified export routes — practical levers for competitiveness. It also enables cooperation on water management, climate adaptation, and resilient energy systems — strategic priorities for a land-linked Central Asian economy.

Critically, the EPCA opens structured avenues for collaboration on critical raw materials needed for the green and digital transitions. This builds on the EU-Uzbekistan memorandum of understanding signed in 2024. It creates opportunities to upgrade domestic standards, attract responsible investment, and join higher segments of global value chains, while maintaining environmental and social safeguards.

Beyond the text, the joint statement issued at the signing underscores a shared commitment to the UN Charter and to the principles of independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity — principles that guide our positions in international fora. It also welcomes the outcomes of the EU–Central Asia Summit, including plans for a Central Asia–EU Economic Forum and a Trans-Caspian Connectivity Investors Forum in Tashkent in 2025. In short, the EPCA is embedded in a wider, forward-looking regional agenda.

In practical terms, success requires implementation of three clear priorities: coordinated institution building, enhanced business support, and transparent, data-driven tracking. These will ensure commitments translate to outcomes.

First, institutional coordination. Translating commitments into outcomes requires a whole-of-government mechanism with clear mandates, timelines, and dashboards. A national EPCA coordination council, supported by technical working groups, should steer approximation to EU standards, monitor progress, and troubleshoot bottlenecks.

Second, business enablement. Firms need guidance to navigate new standards and opportunities. An 'EU Helpdesk' for exporters and investors would offer practical advice on certification, rules of origin, and compliance. This would turn legal text into business practice. Expanding the capacity of testing, inspection, and certification bodies will further reduce transaction costs and speed market entry.

Third, open, data-driven delivery. Customs and trade facilitation should be fully digitised through single-window systems and interoperable data exchange. Regular public reporting on milestones — such as education partnerships, financed projects, and adopted standards — will sustain credibility and invite feedback from business and civil society.

The EPCA also aligns with Uzbekistan’s WTO accession path by encouraging market-based reforms and transparent, rules-based trade. As reforms deepen, our economy will see more diversified exports, stronger investor protections, and a more competitive domestic market. These outcomes raise household incomes and expand opportunity.

This agreement is ambitious by design. Ambition alone is empty; execution alone is stagnant. The EPCA combines both — setting a high bar and supplying the means to reach it. By acting decisively, we turn this framework into a catalyst for inclusive growth, institutional maturity, and global credibility.

Ultimately, the EPCA is more than a diplomatic success; it is the engine for Uzbekistan’s reform agenda. By linking citizen welfare, business competitiveness, and international engagement, the EPCA puts us on a path to fundamental transformation. The critical task ahead is to deliver on this promise and make the Uzbekistan-EU partnership impactful and enduring.

By Eldor Tulyakov,

Executive Director, Development Strategy Centre, Uzbekistan

On November 29, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev convened a meeting dedicated to identifying additional opportunities, increasing investments and jobs in Bukhara region.

Previously, the economy of this region was mainly linked to agriculture. However, over the past seven years, the region has attracted more than $4 billion investments, enabling development of such industries as energy, electrical engineering, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and leather. In the past period of the current year, 1.5 million foreign tourists visited Bukhara.

The visit of the Head of State to the region on May 31-June 1 gave a new impetus to its development. All the tasks outlined during the visit will be fully accomplished by the end of the year.

At the same time, it is important to ensure further growth of economic indicators in 2025, increase employment and well-being of the population. To this end, the working group studied additional opportunities of the region and factors hindering entrepreneurship development.

The critical meeting emphasized that the region's economic performance does not correspond to its potential. Work on investment absorption, poverty and unemployment reduction was recognized as unsatisfactory.

In this regard, the hokims, their deputies and sector heads will be put on emergency duty for a period of six months. The entire focus will be on improving these three areas. Special attention will be paid to implementing 70 driver projects based on the experience of Saikhunobad, Uychi, Zarbdar and Gijduvan. They will provide income to 150 thousand people and lift 40 thousand people out of poverty.

As it was mentioned, each district of the region can be specialized for a certain industry. For example, Peshku and Shafirkan - for production of construction materials and textiles, Kagan city, Alat and Jondor districts - for food industry, Gijduvan and Romitan - for chemical industry. This will make it possible to implement projects of entrepreneurs worth $150 million, create 411 small enterprises and provide 12 thousand jobs.

Four textile factories are planned to be built in Vabkent, Karakul, Jondor and Alat at a total cost of $320 million. This will double the volume of finished knitwear and textile products and create 5,000 jobs.

Next year, the number of foreign tourists is expected to reach 2.2 million and tourism exports are expected to reach $600 million. This will be supported by opening 69 new hotels and 2 thousand handicraft stores.

It is planned to develop additional 20 thousand hectares of land, which will allow to grow additional 100 thousand tons of agricultural products and provide employment for 2 thousand people. Trees and food crops will be planted on vacant homestead land, along canals and field edges.

Another opportunity is pastures. In Bukhara region their area exceeds 2 million hectares. As part of the decisions made at a recent meeting on horticultural development, it is planned to grow pistachios on unused pastures.

Hokim of Bukhara region presented plans to utilize these opportunities. In general, next year 106 projects will be implemented, 105 thousand permanent jobs will be created, exports will be increased by $350 million due to foreign investments worth $2 billion.

The Head of State pointed out the insufficiency of these plans and instructed to intensify efforts and improve results. He tasked to revise the proposals again and draft a relevant resolution.
 

The strategic convergence between Turkiye and Central Asian states –driven by shared historical and cultural heritage alongside mutually reinforcing economic interests – is cultivating a novel architectural framework for regional interconnectedness. Through multilateral formats and bilateral initiatives, these actors have been establishing a durable platform for cooperation across trade, energy, transportation, and the “green” economy, transforming geographical proximity into a long-term factor of stability and collective development.

Amidst the diversification of Central Asian countries’ foreign policy vectors and the Turkish diplomacy’s increasing emphasis on the Eurasian dimension, this partnership has been acquiring a systemic character that goes beyond specific projects, thereby shaping a sustainable architecture of regional interconnectedness.

Political Foundations of Institutionalizing the Partnership

The core instrument facilitating political engagement is the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), which has evolved from a cultural and educational association into a regional a center of attraction spanning from Central Asia to the Caucasus and Europe. Regular summit meetings of OTS leaders exemplify a transition to a pragmatic cooperation phase. Particular significance is attributed to Uzbekistan and its President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who has initiated to deepen collaboration within the organization.

At the October 2025 OTS summit in Gabala, Azerbaijan, the Uzbek leader proposed to craft OTS’s Strategy of Development 2030, including the establishment of a Permanent Council for economic partnership headquartered in Tashkent. These initiatives aim to coordinate economic projects, support business initiatives, and enhance the efficiency of interaction – underscoring Uzbekistan’s aspiration to become a regional hub of integration and a platform for sustainable development.

Simultaneously, Turkiye is intensifying its engagement within other multilateral structures relevant to Central Asia, such as Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Ankara, holding the status of a partner and strives for full membership. This multi-format engagement allows for flexible adaptation of the agenda to specific priorities – from confidence-building measures in security to the coordination of transport corridors.

On January 20 2026, a meeting of the Joint Strategic Planning Group took place, co-chaired by the foreign ministers of Uzbekistan and Turkiye, confirming mutual readiness to deepen coordination within the UN, OSCE, OIC, and ECO, and to support each other’s candidacies in international organizations. This approach transforms bilateral relations into a component of a broader global diplomatic strategy, where support on the international stage becomes a shared interest.

Economic Dimension: From Trade to Strategic Investments

Since 2018, the bilateral trade volume between Central Asia and Ankara has more than doubled – from 6 billion to14.5 billion in 2025. In the long-term Turkiye has set an ambitious target of reaching $30 billion in bilateral trade with Central Asian region.

The volume of Turkish investments exhibits an even more remarkable trend. From 2016 to 2024, Turkish investments in the region increased 2.5 times – from 1.1 billion to3 billion – significantly surpassing the overall growth of Turkish investments in Eurasia (34%) during the same period. Central Asia accounts for 24% of Turkiye’s total accumulated investments in Eurasia. The number of Turkish companies operating in the region increased from 4,000 in 2016 to over 7,000 in 2025. Turkiye has become  Uzbekistan’s third-largest investor (after China and Russia), with more than 2,000 enterprises, including 438 joint ventures.

Turkish business is gradually shifting from small-scale operations to implementing large-scale infrastructure projects across construction, telecommunications, textiles, and agribusiness sectors. Framework documents such as the “OTS Strategy-2026” and the “OTS Strategy-2040,” approved within the OTS, envisage creating a unified economic space –including a common energy grid and a regional development bank. Uzbekistan’s initiatives to expand the activities of the Turkic Investment Fund and the adoption of the “OTS’s Roadmap on Artificial Intelligence and the Creative Economy” indicate a transition towards a high-tech collaboration agenda.

Energy Interdependence: From Hydrocarbons to “Green” Transformation

Central Asia possesses significant hydrocarbon reserves: Kazakhstan holds approximately 30 billion barrels of oil; Turkmenistan ranks fifth globally in natural gas reserves; Uzbekistan has sizable, largely undeveloped deposits. Correspondingly, Turkiye aims to become an energy hub, providing Central Asia with direct access to the European market amid EU’s decarbonization efforts and reduced reliance on Russian supplies.

The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, initially intended for Azerbaijani oil, has evolved into the Trans-Caspian export route. Kazakhstan has been exporting oil through this corridor since 2008, and Turkmenistan since 2010.

In addition, negotiations are underway concerning the export of Turkmen gas via the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), with plans to double its capacity from 16 to 32 billion cubic meters.

Simultaneously, the countries are actively transitioning to renewable energy sources. In Uzbekistan, the Turkish conglomerate “Cengiz” has completed construction of two power plants totaling 460 MW, with additional facilities exceeding 500 MW under construction in Jizzakh. According to estimates from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan possess immense potential not only for domestic green energy production but also for export.

The culmination of these efforts is exemplified by the Trans-Caspian Green Energy Corridor project – an initiative under the Green Corridor Alliance, a joint Kazakh-Uzbek-Azerbaijani enterprise, with funding from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. It aims to connect the electricity grids of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea for subsequent export to Turkiye and Europe. An agreement on strategic partnership for this project was signed at COP29 in Baku in 2024.

The Central Corridor: An Artery of Development

The Trans-Caspian route (the Middle Corridor) has gained strategic importance as an alternative land corridor connecting China with Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkiye. Forecasts suggest that freight volumes along this route could double by 2030, heightening economic interdependence and boosting its geopolitical relevance.

Uzbekistan actively supports the reinforcement of the Central Corridor, viewing it as a core factor for sustainable regional economic development. The infrastructural interdependence created by this project fosters long-term stability among the countries of Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Turkiye, transforming transport cooperation into a tool for regional security enhancement.

Cultural and Humanitarian Dimension: The Foundation of Sustainable Partnership

Historical and cultural links rooted in a common Turkic heritage continue to underpin modern cooperation. The parties are steadily expanding educational programs within the “Turkic World” concept. Several universities operate across Central Asia, including the International University of Turkic States and the Turkish University of Economics and Technology in Uzbekistan. Special attention is given to increasing scholarships for Uzbek students within the “Türkiye Bursları” program and developing joint scholarship initiatives.

Such exchanges in science and culture foster durable horizontal ties among the citizens of Turkiye and Central Asian countries. An increasingly important element is digital cooperation: joint projects in artificial intelligence, digital governance, and creative industries open new avenues for engagement. The expansion of tourism flows and media exchanges also contribute to forming a unified informational and communicational space which is particularly relevant amid the global competition in the modern media environment of information manipulation.

Conclusion

Overall, the partnership between Central Asia and Turkiye reflects a transition from ad hoc interactions to a systematic model of cooperation based on resource, infrastructural, and strategic complementarity. Turkiye gains access to energy resources and transit routes, strengthening its status as an Eurasian hub. In turn, Central Asian states diversify their foreign policy and economic ties, increasing their autonomy and competitiveness.

The future prospects of this partnership hinge on three core vectors: first, deepening economic integration through the OTS and bilateral agreements; second, jointly implementing cross-border infrastructure projects in energy and transportation; third, advancing the “green” and digital agendas as foundations for sustainable development. Achieving these objectives requires ongoing dialogue, regulatory harmonization, and trust-building measures, but it already clear that the Central Asia–Turkiye partnership forms a robust platform for regional stability and collective prosperity in a multipolar world.

Dilorom MAMATKULOVA,

Leading research fellow of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

From June 16^th to 19^th, the capital will host the 5^th Tashkent International Investment Forum, the country's primary investment platform and one of the region's largest business forums.

Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2026) has solidified its position as a key investment platform in Central Asia, bringing together states, international investors, and representatives of global business. The forum serves not merely as a platform for dialogue, but as a space where the region's practical investment agenda is actively shaped.

The core idea of the forum lies in the fact that Uzbekistan is consistently cementing its status as a regional investment hub, capable not only of attracting capital but also of defining long-term rules and directions for the economic development of Central Asia.

The scale of TIIF-2025 clearly demonstrated that the forum has transitioned to a new stage of its development. The event brought together more than 8,000 delegates from 97 countries, with the total volume of signed investment agreements reaching 30.5 billion US dollars. These indicators stand as some of the most significant results among regional investment platforms.

The growing number of participants, the broadening geography, and the increased volume of concluded deals bear witness to a notable strengthening of international business confidence in Uzbekistan's investment climate. The forum is increasingly perceived not as a one-off discussion platform, but as a sustainable mechanism for generating real investment solutions.

The significance of the Tashkent International Investment Forum is determined not only by its scale, but also by its practical value for participants. TIIF provides a unique opportunity for direct access to key economic and political decision-makers - ranging from heads of state and governments to representatives of international financial institutions, sovereign wealth funds and major corporations.

The forum cultivates a rare environment where the state, investors, and business are concentrated within a single space, allowing for a seamless transition from general discussions to concrete formats of cooperation. Within the framework of TIIF, B2B and B2G meetings are actively advanced, serving as the cornerstone for concluding investment agreements and launching new projects.

TIIF-2026, scheduled to take place from June 16 to 19 in Tashkent, will maintain and expand upon the framework of previous years, combining elements of high-level political dialogue, business negotiations, and sectoral discussions. The forum's program features a plenary session with the participation of heads of state, panel sessions, thematic pitch presentations, and an expanded exhibition showcasing the country's industrial and investment potential.

One of the defining features of TIIF-2026 is its exceptionally high level of representation, which brings together a unique concentration of political, financial, and corporate capital within a single venue. The forum features heads of state and government, including leaders from Central Asian and European nations, alongside executives from international organizations and multilateral development banks.

Among the participants are representatives from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Investment Bank (EIB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), alongside sovereign wealth funds and export credit agencies. Such a composition ensures a direct link between state reforms, global financial institutions, and private capital.

The outcomes of the 4th Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2025) received widespread international acclaim from representatives of government structures, financial institutions, and global business, who noted Uzbekistan's growing role as the region's premier investment hub.

The Director of the Center for Global and Regional Studies (CEGREG), Professor Ikboljon Qoraboev (Kazakhstan), emphasized the scale and significance of the forum:

• Central Asia has once again taken center stage in the international business community. From June 9^th to 12^th, Tashkent hosted the 4^th Tashkent International Investment Forum - the largest regional investment platform, which is consistently gaining momentum and international resonance with each passing year. The scale of this year's forum is truly unprecedented, bringing together around 3,000 foreign delegates from nearly 100 countries.

TIIF is emerging as the premier platform for showcasing the industrial and economic potential of Central Asia, while the participation of state leaders, major investors, and international banks highlights the strategic significance of the forum as a window of opportunity for the region.

Associate Professor at the Azerbaijan State University of Economics, political scientist Emin Garibli (Azerbaijan), accentuated the integration significance of the forum:

• Tashkent International Investment Forum is emerging not only as a key economic platform for Central Asia, but also as a vital instrument for deepening integration processes between Europe and Asia. The forum strengthens Tashkent's status as a regional center of gravity for investment and demonstrates the country's resolve in advancing reforms within the framework of the New Uzbekistan strategy.

Executive Producer of CGTN, Zhang He (China), highlighted the investment impact of the reforms:

• The economic reforms implemented in Uzbekistan have created a more favorable environment for investors. Uzbekistan possesses immense potential in sectors such as industry, 'green' energy, agriculture, information technology, and tourism. This will serve to diversify investments and expand the manufacturing of high-value-added products.

Governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Nobumitsu Hayashi (Japan), noted the transformation of the forum's role:

• The forum has transformed into a fully-fledged regional platform, uniting business leaders and financiers from across Central Asia and Eastern Europe. The reforms in Uzbekistan are creating a predictable and attractive environment for long-term investments.

Chairman of the Chinese company CAMCE, Wang Bo (China), noted the practical value of the forum:

• This prestigious event opens up excellent opportunities not only for our company, but also for foreign investors seeking prospects in the dynamically developing economy of Uzbekistan. For foreign investors, Uzbekistan represents a unique opportunity, particularly in light of the WTO accession process. As the President noted, this will open up even greater prospects for sustainable development, making Uzbekistan an attractive destination for global investment.

Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2026) is cementing its role as one of the key platforms for investment dialogue in Central Asia, where not only the directions of economic policy are shaped, but also real mechanisms for interaction between the state and global capital are forged.

On the whole, the experience of previous years demonstrates that TIIF has already transitioned from a traditional conference format into a practical investment ecosystem that influences the structure of regional economic development. In this context, TIIF-2026 is viewed as the next phase in strengthening Uzbekistan's role within the global investment architecture and further expanding its integration into international capital markets.

Dunyo IA

During a telephone conversation between President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev and President of the European Council António Costa on January 23, topical issues on the bilateral and regional agenda were discussed.

The President of Uzbekistan sincerely congratulated António Costa on his election as the head of the European Council and wished him great success.

It was noted with deep satisfaction that the Uzbek-European multifaceted cooperation has reached the highest level in recent years and continues to develop dynamically in all priority dimensions.

Active contacts and exchanges at different levels have been carried out. In 2024, Uzbekistan's trade turnover with the EU countries exceeded 6 billion euros, the portfolio of projects with European companies reached 30 billion euros.

Last year, an agreement on strategic partnership in the field of critical mineral resources was signed. There is fruitful cooperation in transportation and digital interconnectivity, green economy, culture and other areas.

Confidence was expressed in the early signing of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the European Union, which will give a serious impetus to the development of the entire range of relations.

The Uzbek leader and the head of the European Council also exchanged views on the international agenda and regional cooperation. Joint plans to prepare and hold the first “Central Asia-EU” summit in the city of Samarkand in April this year were discussed.

Bakhtiyor Mustafayev, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the Head of our state (ISRS), commented on the outcomes of the working visit of President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Switzerland and his participation in the ceremony of signing the Board of Peace Charter in Davos:

- The participation of the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in events held on the sidelines of the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2026 constituted a landmark development, reflecting the country’s transition to a new stage of international positioning.

Against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical uncertainty, Uzbekistan demonstrated an approach that aligns domestic reforms with evolving global expectations, positioning itself as a reliable and predictable partner for investment and initiatives in the field of security.

A central milestone of the working visit was the participation of the Head of State in the ceremonial signing of the Board of Peace Charter on January 22, 2026. The invitation extended to the President of Uzbekistan by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to join this body as a founding member reflects a high level of international confidence.

Uzbekistan’s participation in the Board of Peace is grounded in clear strategic considerations.

First, this represents a natural continuation of the strategy of openness and multi-vector dialogue that Uzbekistan has consistently pursued in recent years.
Tashkent has been purposefully strengthening its presence across all major global platforms, actively participating in regional and international formats of the United Nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and BRICS+.

The invitation extended to U.S. President Donald Trump to participate in the G20 Summit reflects the growing recognition of Uzbekistan as a responsible partner in global governance. Accession to the Board of Peace logically builds on this trajectory, reaffirming Uzbekistan’s capacity to engage on an equal footing with the world’s leading powers and to make a constructive contribution to the development of new mechanisms of international cooperation.

Second, Uzbekistan’s participation in the Board of Peace clearly demonstrates its firm commitment to a principled position on the Palestinian issue, where Tashkent combines humanitarian resolve with practical action.
Following President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s public call for a ceasefire in November 2023, the country moved from words to deeds: USD 1.5 million in assistance was allocated through UNRWA, and in December 2024 Uzbekistan carried out a humanitarian evacuation of 100 wounded Palestinian women and children from Rafah.

Drawing on the successful experience of the Mehr program, Tashkent created comprehensive conditions for their medical treatment and social rehabilitation, effectively offering the international community a functioning model of practical humanitarianism. This state policy—going beyond declarations and implying real responsibility for human lives—became a key factor of trust in the formation of the Board of Peace.

Third, the Davos platform served as a catalyst for advancing Uzbekistan’s economic and investment profile toward a higher level of global competitiveness. Over the past decade, the country has demonstrated sustained economic growth: GDP has more than doubled to USD 145 billion, economic growth reached 7.7 percent in 2025, and foreign exchange and gold reserves exceeded USD 60 billion for the first time.

Structural transformation of the economy is reflected in the fact that more than 80 percent of GDP is generated by processing industries, while exports reached a historic high of USD 33.4 billion, representing a 24 percent increase. Equally significant are the social outcomes of the reforms, including a reduction in the poverty rate from 35 percent in 2017 to 5.8 percent in 2025, contributing to more inclusive economic development.

In addition, negotiations between the President of Uzbekistan and the leadership of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, marked an important step toward attracting long-term and sustainable investment. Discussions on potential equity participation and the establishment of joint investment mechanisms indicate Uzbekistan’s growing integration into global investment processes. This confidence is also reflected in the activities of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), whose total investments in Uzbekistan have reached nearly USD 7 billion, making the country one of the Bank’s key partners in the region.

Fourth, amid the fragmentation of the global order and the escalation of regional tensions, ensuring that the interests of Uzbekistan and Central Asia are adequately reflected in emerging security frameworks remains of critical importance. Participation in the Board of Peace serves as an instrument of preventive diplomacy based on the understanding of the interconnected nature of contemporary challenges and threats.

Uzbekistan is effectively establishing the first line of defence for its own security and for the stability of the entire region, ensuring that national and Central Asian interests are not marginalized in global decision-making processes.

In conclusion, it can be stated with confidence that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s visit to Switzerland has set a new strategic trajectory for the country’s development.

The combination of institutional consolidation within the Board of Peace, internationally recognized macroeconomic achievements, a consistent humanitarian stance, and the active promotion of regional interests at the global level positions Uzbekistan as a unique model of successful modernization in the contemporary world — a state that not only adapts to changes in the international system, but also earns the right to participate in shaping the global agenda of the 21st century.

Dunyo IA

Today, as global climate changes are observed, the population is growing, and industrial sectors are rapidly developing, the value of water resources is increasing not only in the Central Asian region but also worldwide.

According to the data, over the past 30 years, the air temperature in our region has increased by one and a half degrees, as a result of which about a third of the centuries-old glaciers in the highlands have melted, and the volume of water in rivers and streams has decreased slightly.

If current climate trends continue, in the next twenty years, the flow of the two large rivers, Amu Darya and Syr Darya, may decrease by 15%. This would result in a 25 percent reduction in per capita water availability and agricultural crop yields.

These are not just numbers, but indicators related to the fate and well-being of the people living in the region.

According to scientists, by 2040 in some areas of Central Asia, the need for water resources will triple. Over time, economic damage could reach 11% of the region's gross domestic product. The United Nations (UN) warns that countries in the region are currently losing up to US$2 billion a year due to water scarcity and inefficient use. Therefore, if appropriate measures are not taken now, it is inevitable that the countries in our region will face dire consequences of water shortages.

Under the leadership of the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, special attention is being paid to the comprehensive development of the water management sector in our republic, the rational use of existing water resources, including the widespread introduction of digital and water-saving irrigation technologies, and remarkable results are being achieved in this regard.

In his speech at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly on September 19, 2023, the leader of Uzbekistan emphasized the issue of water resource shortages in Central Asia, supported the establishment of the position of the UN Secretary General's Special Representative on Water Resources, and proposed creating a platform for water-saving technologies in Central Asia. In the process of using the "United Nations-Water Resources" mechanism, he emphasized his support for attracting and implementing the most advanced technologies.

This means that Uzbekistan will take the initiative in creating a platform for water-saving technologies in Central Asia, while also seeking to involve the international community in the process.

For more than 30 years since its establishment, the International Fund for Saving the Aral has become the most important platform for regional cooperation in the fields of water management and ecology. In the face of new risks and threats arising because of global climate change, the role and importance of the fund are increasing.

On September 15, 2023, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev put forward the initiative to develop and implement new, agreed-upon decisions for the long-term perspective within the framework of this structure at the meeting of the Council of Heads of the Founding States of the International Fund for Saving the Aral held in Dushanbe. Reflecting the spirit of today, he emphasized the need to further improve the fund's legal framework and modernize its institutional mechanisms.

It should be noted that in the country’s domestic policy over the past seven years, at the initiative of the President, large-scale reforms in the water sector have been implemented. To manage state policy in the field of water management, a separate Ministry of Water Resources was created and the Concept for the development of the industry for the period until 2030 was approved.

As a logical continuation of these reforms and to solve systemic problems at the middle and upper levels of the water management system, on May 7, 2024, the President of Uzbekistan signed the decree "On Setting Priorities for the Introduction and Development of a Modern Management System in Water Resources." According to this document, the activity of the Ministry of Water Resources was divided into three parts, setting up a vertical management system. At the upper level is the management of the state water policy, the regulator; the middle level is engaged in the operation and construction of water management facilities and the introduction of business processes into the sector; and the lower-level handles supplying water directly to consumers.

In the middle stage, an agency for the exploitation of water resource facilities is being set up that operates as an independent legal entity. The agency includes the Ministry of Water Resources of the Republic of Karakalpakhstan and regional irrigation systems basin departments, main canals, water reservoirs, and pumping station utilization departments, as well as land-improvement expeditions.

The department for the implementation of water management projects participates as a customer in projects funded by the budget and foreign investments. The decree envisages a 22% increase in the salary of middle- and high-level employees working in the ministry system, starting on July 1, 2024, and a 60% increase starting in 2025. It should be mentioned that starting in January 2024, the salary of lower-level employees has been doubled, and several incentive mechanisms are being used.

As a result of the accurate calculation of available water resources, special attention is paid to the introduction of water-saving technologies, resulting in abundant and high-quality harvests from agricultural crops. Nevertheless, the prevention of water scarcity remains one of the most important directions for Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan is a country with a large water infrastructure in the Central Asian region; the total irrigated cropland exceeds 4.3 million hectares.

As one of the five priority directions of the "Uzbekistan-2030" strategy, which defines the goals of sustainable development of the country, the task of saving water resources and environmental protection is emphasized, placing great responsibility on water management employees.

To reduce water losses in irrigation networks, the year 2024 was announced as a "breakthrough year for concreting canals" in the water industry at the initiative of the President. For this purpose, 5,000 kilometers of irrigation networks, of which 1,500 kilometers are main and inter-farm and 3,500 kilometers are internal, have been concreted this year. To date, 525 kilometers of canals have been reconstructed, of which 355 kilometers have been concreted. The length of canals concreted by clusters and farms has exceeded 13,500 kilometers.

In recent years, the areas covered by water-saving technologies in the country have reached 1.3 million hectares. Of this, drip irrigation accounts for 478,000 hectares, sprinkler irrigation for 55,000 hectares, and discrete method irrigation for 29,000 hectares. Over 700,000 hectares have been leveled using laser leveling equipment.

Work on the introduction of water-saving technologies, which started in previous years, is being continued consistently. This year alone, it is planned to introduce cost-effective technologies on 500,000 hectares of land and to fully cover all irrigated farming areas in the country with such technologies by 2030.

All possibilities and resources are being used for this. Today, the number of local enterprises producing equipment and components for water-saving technologies in Uzbekistan has reached 55, with plans to increase this number in the future.

In recent years, 11,446 "Smart Water" devices, online water level monitoring meters in 1,704 pumping units, and online monitoring of seepage water levels have been installed in 6,746 reclamation monitoring wells. To manage water resources from one point without human intervention, the management processes of 65 large water management facilities were automated.

It is planned to save 8 billion cubic meters of water in 2024 through the concreting of channels, the introduction of water-saving technologies, the digitization of the industry, the implementation of "smart" devices, and effective water management.

It should be noted that 60 percent of the irrigated cropland in the country is supplied with water through pumps. There are more than 1,600 pumping stations in the Ministry's system, and due to their modernization, installation of modern energy-saving devices, and the introduction of public-private partnerships, electricity consumption has been reduced by 1.5 billion kWh in the last seven years.

In the coming years, the total cost of the water industry will be $6.0 trillion. Agreements for 463 public-private partnership projects worth significant amounts in soums were signed. In 2023, all water management facilities in five districts and 300 pumping stations across the republic will be transferred to the private sector.

This transfer increases work efficiency, saves up to 30% on electricity at pumping stations, and reduces salary deductions by 13%.

The "Irrigators' School" was launched in cooperation with the Ministry of Water Resources, the "Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers," the National Research University, and "Agrobank." Highly qualified specialists from abroad are organizing one-week-long free training courses for designers, contractors, managers of farms, and cluster enterprises from all districts of the republic.

In short, life itself proves that the only solution to mitigate the water shortage in our region is to save water and use it wisely.

Press service of the Ministry of Water Resources
of the Republic of Uzbekistan